mob1

It's impressive that Central Park is still at 32 degrees. Rain is pretty much over here and it's up to 33 degrees, it's pretty cool to watch large lines of ice fall from trees and power lines.

Everything caked in ice, temperature actually dropped over the last 30 minutes or so and is back down to 31.7 Models were mostly too cold aloft and too warm at the surface. NYC and LGA are at 31 as well.

Looking at their webcam, it's absolutely puking snow at Hunter Mountain. I'll be there on Sunday so I hope they can avoid any mixing.

It was definitely too amped but that's a well documented bias of the NAM. At some point yesterday it had sleet into central VT but has since come south a fair bit. On the flip side, some models were too far south. They ultimately met in the middle.

There are many people in this subforum that get frozen precipitation there. There's a world outside of Brooklyn (and it's beautiful).

We need to monitor the wet bulb temperature as precipitation commences. If it's low enough for the city to get down to about 28-29, they might stay below freezing for a while as low level cold is hard to scour out and is often not modelled correctly. Right now (as of 1 o'clock) Central Park was 32/7, obviously the dp will rise a lot as clouds thicken but if they're something like 34/24 when the precipitation moves in they'll probably stay below freezing a bit longer. Given the borderline temperatures, the difference between freezing rain and sleet will be huge, as sleet will accumulate in pretty much any temperature while freezing rain won't be a big deal in anything over 29 or so.

Wow. Good for the Catskill ski resorts who have taken an absolute beating over the last 2 weeks. Hope it's right.

18Z Euro continues to be well south of the NAM, actually has the majority of the storm as snow for far northern posters here (Sussex into Orange County).

This could be a really ugly storm for northern NJ, especially since cold level cold is often undermodeled. I doubt anyone north of I-80 even touches freezing before meaningful precipitation moves out.

Fairly large area of a 10 percent hatched tornado contour added to the 2 day outlook.

2.5" here in SI, definitely more than I thought I would get a few days ago. This puts me over 20 inches for the year. Light snow now.

How bad? Post it please if you can.

Lol, it was a completely miss in the morning on the RAP.

OMG! I don't want to get too emotionally invested but the trends today have been awesome.

The Euro is printing out something insane for Boston.

Complete coincidence, there's absolutely no correlation between the 2. Besides, 1.4 is not even noticeable, and they're not even remotely unusual.

actually has a large area of 1-2 inches form the PRE

Ukie took a rather big step back

EPS look great as well. Weird model battle.

January 2016 as well (for some), but from an entirely different angle. Point is that significant changes can still happen with this lead time, though it obviously doesn't mean it will or that it won't get worse.

Check out the 2010 Boxing Day blizzard at this timeframe (72 hours or so). Not saying that it'll happen, just that it has and it can.

Looks pretty good

I'm assuming you meant "happy", and I agree.

Barley moves for a while