mob1

It is, it's meant to convey the average error historically by the NHC (so it's a moving average, and not at all based on how confident they are with the current forecast). Based on the speed and trajectory of a storm, it can sometimes look like it's a different spread, but it's always the same.

Models tend to overestimate the extent of winds west of a hybrid or subtropical storm, but in this case there will be a very strong pressure gradient between Fiona and a high pressure over the eastern US so it might enhance it a bit. Even right now, recon is finding the strongest winds south and east of the center, while the NW quadrant isn't overly impressive. However, the eastern side has an INSANELY large and strong windfield as per recon. We'll see how it plays out, but the more impressive winds will likely be over Prince Edward Island and Cape Breton (and of course Sable Island).

While Fiona is a bit more lopsided now as it begins its transition to extratropical, winds are still very impressive on the SE side. Recon flight found 140 KT flight level winds and 110 at the surface.

Looks a bit more symmetrical now and the eye is less ragged.

Tornado warning for northern Indiana also mentions 80 mph winds. It's odd that they didn't accompany it with a severe thunderstorm warning as well. Either way, rotation seems to be tightening a bit.

Confirmed tornado on this one. Hard to tell what to make of this velocity scan, the inflow and outflow look a bit disproportionate.

PDS warning with this storm

Maybe strong embedded tornadoes? I'm not sure why they went 15 percent hatched, but so far there has been at least one embedded tornado doing some damage and has had a tight couplet for a surprisingly long time considering it's embedded in the line. It's also in a radar dead zone so it's hard to know for sure how long it's been in the ground.

The storm between Alexandria and Nelson has a confirmed large TOG. Has a nice TDS signature as well.

Confirmed TOG near Sinai SD.

SPC upgraded tomorrow to a moderate risk for MN.

Two warnings now and the western one has a decent couplet. Weird that they're not putting out a watch yet.

Some 95 mph bins starting to show up on velocity scans north of O'Neill Nebraska, warning out for that area is for 90 mph. Very impressive wind event underway. ASOS report for O'Neill of a 76 MPH gust, with mesonet from the area topping out at 88 mph.

SPC added an significant tornado contour in northeastern SD despite expecting things to grow upscale very quickly. Even with a messy storm mode, backed surface winds and eye-raising instability can lead to a couple of significant embedded tornadoes. Here's a cherry-picked sounding in SD from the latest HRRR.

A couple of confirmed tornadoes embedded in that line now. It's hard to stay on top of it given how fast they spin up and disappear, which is probably why they're doing this.

That monster cell took a bit of a north turn so the NWS is spreading out 3 seperate warnings in all directions. Probably smart given what some of the Oklahoma tornadoes have done today.

Absolutely vicious rotation in the cell just south of Lockett TX, hope it's not a populated area.

That's huge

Okemah looks to be next in line, over 120 MPH GTG sheer on that.

Took an unfortunately turn north just as it entered the city, which is where most of it is located.

If it's still on the ground, it'll either pass over Seminole or VERY close to it.

Someone's asleep at the wheel, at least 2 cells east and southeast of Amarillo have tight couplets. Edit: now TW'd. The 2 cells to it's north also look pretty healthy.

It might be overtaken by the line relatively soon

All the way in far eastern OK

Starting to see embedded rotation in the line. It's a bit early but I wouldn't be surprised if QLCS tornadoes rule the day yet again. Edit; that storm is now tornado warned