mob1

It's really hard to equate how different events will be affected by junk-vection and/or messy storm mode. With that said, it's definitely possible to have a fairly significant event even with very little spacing between storms, just not the violent tornadoes you get with high caliber outbreaks. One other notable difference between this event is also the LLJ, which is already quite impressive even early in the afternoon. Like is always the case though, you always have to temper expectations a little bit when there's basically no cap.

There must be an insane hail core associated with this cell. Edit; the warning does mention 2 inch hail

I'm not really sure either. Updraft Helicity looks somewhat improved over 12Z, especially for TN. Overall it still looks fairly devoid of deep surface based convection.

3K NAM also looks far better (for severe potential) for northern AL/MS and well into TN. Meso models are definitely trending towards a deeper low and better moisture surge.

18Z NAM extends a very significant tornado threat well North of it's previous run.

Some of these SRH values are pretty wild

During last week's event, I kept seeing things like "level 4 severe weather event" and had no clue what it was. It's actually a really good system, numbers speak to people.

If Globals are correct, it might not matter as much if things initiate a bit early as the storm is much more impressive synoptically than what the mesoscale models have. Euro and GFS have a rather impressive deepening LP (sub 990 on the Euro and just a tad higher on the GFS) with some pretty insane upper and mid level winds in the warm sector.

Not bad for an 18Z sounding. As is always the case, details won't be ironed out till early Thursday morning, but there's a lot to work with here. One standout difference from the last event as that the storm will likely be strengthening as opposed to occluding, and the overall trajectory of the LP might be more conductive for a cleaner storm mode.

The 0Z GFS has a very ripe environment for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, as do all the OZ runs so far. Timing and features will shift, but verbatim both the NAM and GFS have loaded gun soundings for parts of Mississippi rather early on Thursday.

That storm approaching Glen Raven looks particularly impressive.

That cell had a tight couple over High Point before it broadened as it approached areas east of Greensboro. Edit; looks pretty good again now.

There may have been a small CC drop east of Charlotte but it's in a horrible radar spot. Either way, rotation still looks fairly tight.

Even if it doesn't produce a tornado, those are some pretty impressive winds south of Greensboro.

Rotation is definitely tightening on that as it passes Pineville.

It's kind of cool that literally every cell in that line has some very broad rotation, though the environment upstream still isn't overly impressive.

So far I'm unenthused with today's threat. Latest HRRR looks pretty meh and ML CAPE doesn't look all that impressive. Obviously, if things clear up it could change quickly.

The cell SW of Billingsley can probably use a warning.

I'd be very suprised if the Selma cell doesn't produce a tornado. Velocities are becoming very impressive.

A couple of new tornado warnings up in AL, let's see what the next few hours bring.

Confirmed tornado near Sweet Water.

Huge CC drop on that Campbell storm

Big TDS west of Campbell Alabama

The storm near Gilbertown is going nuts