mob1

The Euro is likely going to be wrong, it's just so much colder than most models.

RGEM

RGEM

The super high resolution of this model does wanky stuff like this all the time, it's obviously not real.

Anyone else concerned about a Category 5 hurricane hitting CC?

This would be incredible for ski country

Hi Res NAM

Considering it's riding a frontal boundary, the gradient will likely be significant. I'm really agonizing over my decision to lock in my trip to Killington, I should've left the option open to change to Whiteface if it trends West.

Man, if I can lock this in for my ski trip...

NAM is a lot more amped and west

NAM going back to a much stronger low (which isn't surprising as it was the weakest model at 12Z by far).

The low slipping east and not getting vertically stacked also tempers the upslope aspect quite a bit.

I almost cancelled my ski trip because it looked like it was going to rain in VT, but now I need the storm to trend back west and a little more amplified ☺.

You said this yesterday when models were well NW of where they are now, the odds of this ending up NW of where the NAM was yesterday are rather low. Although it can definitely trend NW of where it is now.

What seems like a lifetime ago

It's really not a big deal anymore, we're sacrificing a really fun dynamic system so Boston can get s slushy inch of snow (and yes, we totally control the outcome). I'll be in VT most of next week so I hope models trend back a bit to a more dynamic system with a bit more QPF.

While the east trend is nice, it's partly because the flow is very fast so the storm starts amplifying further NE than originally forecasted. Since the storm is riding a frontal boundary, this delay allows the boundary to slip a bit east a potentially give part of the area some snow. The issue with that is that we're sacrificing a much more exciting storm for some wet snow that might not even accumulate in most areas. I'd personally rather get a 960 mb low over NH that gives us 60 mph gusts and severe weather than this. This strung out low (relative to what it showed) also means that the areas that will see all snow will likely get a lot less. I guess I'm a sucker for a dynamic bomb, regardless of how it impacts the weather for my backyard.

LOL

Whatever...

I'm going to Killington on Saturday (through Tuesday) so these subtle shifts east are encouraging as it gives them a tiny bit of wiggle room to trend back NW and still be mostly snow. Worst case scenario, they'll get some upslope snow as the storm departs.

It's nice to see some models showing this. I was afraid of an all-out rainstorm for VT (which might still happen). I will likely be at Killington on Sunday but will change it to Whiteface if it trends NW.

I'll be at Killington this weekend, I hope at least part of the storm is snow there. Any small shift west and it's yet another blinding rainstorm for all of ski fountry

It's impressive that Central Park is still at 32 degrees. Rain is pretty much over here and it's up to 33 degrees, it's pretty cool to watch large lines of ice fall from trees and power lines.

Everything caked in ice, temperature actually dropped over the last 30 minutes or so and is back down to 31.7 Models were mostly too cold aloft and too warm at the surface. NYC and LGA are at 31 as well.