mob1

While true, SST's are generally less transient than the upper level patterns. Should the upper level patterns become more favorable down the line (or even a narrow window and/or area of favorable upper level conditions) the OHC would be more supportive than usual.

Somehow made it to an inch and still raining fairly heavily (though the backend is fast approaching)

Some storms are starting to pop further east. I'm in New Brunswick and definitely hear some thunder nearby.

That's impressive. I've had 2.37" in the same timeframe.

It's tiny in aerial coverage

That southernmost cell is really going to town now. It was just tornado warned.

Tightening couplet south of Center Point as well. Looks like storms are moving into a better environment now.

70 mph gust at DVN

Very strong couplet embedded in the line NE of Riverton WY.

There's a pretty insane hail core with that storm as well. Wild couple of days for CO.

PDS warning with this

PDS warning with it now, that's an impressive couplet.

Lots of gust reports in the high 70s from that line of storms approaching Alva.

Wow

Tornado in progress east of Fort Stockton.

11/5/2

Cloud tops are warming a bit, but I think this might be pretty normal during the daytime and is not necessarily indicative of gradual weakening. Either way, the stage has already been set for a devastating storm surge and even if the storm does weaken upon landfall it won't make a huge difference in that regard.

Absolutely stunning presentation

Definitely. I'd be very surprised if the threat doesn't shift significantly south and/or is tempered altogether.

10 percent hatched tornado proba for Dallas.

That cell near Centralia looks like it's about to go off. Edit; it kind of petered out. Stroms are having a tough time becoming surface-based.

Morning convection is pretty scattered, might not help alleviate mixing issues most models show. Interesting day ahead, parameters warrant the moderated risk but it's one of those days that can easily yield very little with the capping issues advertises (and whatever does develop might struggle to become surface based). On the flip side of this, spacing likely won't be an issue and if cells can take advantage of the environment they can go bunkers. Definitely high bust potential, but can also end up being a big day if just a few cells can really get going.

Looks like something is developing east of Gainesville, could probably use a TW soon.

Tornado emergency for that storm now. Looks like it'll hit a fairly populated area on the south side of Covington.