mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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Right on the border
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Time will tell. Model skill only increases as the event draws closer, and you'd need a pretty significant shift to get a truly impactful event. I was contemplating a trip to eastern Massachusetts but it's probably not worth it at this point.
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This is quickly trending towards a minor event for anyone outside of Maine (with perhaps far eastern New England getting a moderate event).
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Yep, all overnight models shifted slightly east, though a few hurricane models keep it interesting. We'll see what today brings, but conventional wisdom says that it's no big deal outside of the cape and Maine.
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68 W (longitudinal) at our latitude is probably the line for significant impacts on eastern New England. Obviously if it gets even further west, it increases impacts further inland. Aside from the Euro, some tropical models have it close enough as well.
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I wholeheartedly agree with this sentiment. I'm a weather enthusiast who is absolutely fascinated by destructive weather and would like nothing more than a Category 5 hurricane right up my fanny. As for the human suffering that it'll inevitably bring, I want to assure you guys that despite my rooting interests, I'm not actually in charge of the weather and have zero bearing on the outcome.
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Some pretty significant street flooding in Brooklyn. Recorded a little under an inch back home.
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Recon is finding some nice pressure drops for Lee, should continue to ramp up overnight.
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She's a hooker
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Euro is wide right
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You can say that again
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For what it's worth (which isn't much), the 12Z ICON hits SE Massachusetts pretty hard with Lee.
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Correct, though speed/timing of both Lee and through/front/HP could have a bigger impact on where it ultimately ends up.
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This looks pretty intense
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Madison FL is next in line for the northern eyewall, but it looks like velocity scans are weakening a bit (obviously expected as it moves inland).
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Strongest velocities look to be just east of Perry.
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Landfall location and angle of approach look pretty bad for Cedar Key.
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Latest center pass is at 965 mb, a 7 mb drop in about 2.5 hours (from the first pass).
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That's due east of the center, first recon flight will make a true NE to SW pass soon.
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12Z Euro has it coming in near Crystal Springs. This thing really hauls once it clears the Yucatan, which might limit its potential.
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Went from almost nothing to this is a few runs
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Recon finding extrapolated pressure of 997mb or so. Some hurricane models have it passing fairly close to Bermuda.
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There are some incredibly heavy training cells not too far to their west. They're slowly making their way eastward so LV will likely miss the worst of it, but areas to their immediate northwest might still see some prolific flooding. Red Rock Canyon national park is going to take it on the chin.
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Lots of training cells over Death Valley and areas west of Las Vegas, flooding could be pretty bad there.
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Some models have it affecting either the far eastern US (Nantucket or eastern Maine) or the Canadian maritimes. Euro in general has a lot of traffic in the entire basin.
