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mob1

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Everything posted by mob1

  1. mob1
    Otis might just be the worst of the EPAC due to location of landfall. Hopefully, it will weaken just before the eyewall comes ashore. Regardless, that's a bad spot for flooding and population, even if it does not hold Cat 4 through landfall. It's not moving all that fast. Definitely, it's also moving a bit east of the forecast track (at least the early afternoon one) and should landfall fairly close to Acapulco. Even if it weakens as it comes ashore, the surge has already built up and the damage is done.
  2. mob1
    A bit of a positive bust today for rain here. Most models had about half an inch through today, I'm at 1.22" with a sizeable band of moderate to heavy rain moving in.
  3. mob1
    Looks like it's headed south of PV for now, and given its size they might be spared the worst if it doesn't take on a more notherly heading.
  4. mob1
    Recon found peak surface winds of 108 knots, this should be a category 4 hurricane soon and still has some very warm waters to traverse.
  5. mob1
    A friend of mine lives in Woodmere and says his entire neighborhood has 2-3 feet of standing water.
  6. mob1
    JFK with a hair under 6 inches already (very likely over that by now).
  7. mob1
    JFK-east will probably be the next big problem area.
  8. mob1
    You're looking at the wrong hour. Last hour was 1.02", the 1.96" was the hour before that.
  9. mob1
    Some showers are developing near Tom's River and moving northward, we'll see what the next few hours bring as it stopped raining here completely. I think the bands going into Queens are Nassau will have to lighten up a bit as otherwise we'll be sucking subsidence for hours.
  10. mob1
    Queens and Nassau should get absolutely pummeled over the next few hours.
  11. mob1
    Central Park added 1.96" in the last hour.
  12. mob1
    How much did they have before this event? By the end of this hour they should be at around 3 inches for the event.
  13. mob1
    LGA added 1.4" in the last hour.
  14. mob1
    HRRR shows the lull quite well but has heavy rain redeveloping over the area this afternoon. Give the city a few more inches of rain. We'll see if it actually happens.
  15. mob1
    JFK already surpassed 4 inches with a heavy band moving in. We might get a nice break here soon and then we'll see if more rain develops.
  16. mob1
    HRRR is still all over the place
  17. mob1
    Drove from Staten Island to Midwood this morning through insane rainfall rates. That was hairy.
  18. mob1
    I'm in Brooklyn and it's absolutely pouring now. Rain has a tropical feel to it.
  19. mob1
    Let's compare that to what the 18Z HRRR had at this point.
  20. mob1
    Some areas south of Tom's River are closing in on 2 inches but models had almost nothing for them to this point. It doesn't necessarily mean anything for the main show later tonight into tomorrow, but it shows how hard these mesoscale features are to pin down.
  21. mob1
    What did it look at at 0Z? Never mind, Pivotal has a trend option.
  22. mob1
    Yes, let's. My favorite flooding event ever, my street was literally a river. None of the cars in these pictures are actually moving, they're all parked.
  23. mob1
    More like 7-9". It's confined to a relatively small area though, and looks like a classic winter norlun through with the isobars elongated towards the NW. Those suckers can generate a ton of forcing but are notoriously fickle and hard to pin down. More often than not, the axis of the heaviest precipitation ends up a bit NE of where it was modeled.
  24. mob1
    Yep, looks like a more realistic version of the NAM.
  25. mob1
    Absolutely pouring here for the past 20 minutes. These last few bands are going to add up quick.
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