mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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We'll see when the money frames come out, but so far the NAM seems marginally improved.
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It's always far too cold/snowy in this range for this type of storm. It's a well known bias, and it can be pretty extreme sometimes.
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Plus it's the shallowest of warm layers (something that heavy rates can perhaps overcome). Either way, it's hard to imagine that being ZR.
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Relatively speaking (to what I was responding to). For me personally, 6 inches would be a success and anything more gravy. Less than 6 would hurt a bit
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Surface temps aren't the issue though, it's the warm nose in the mid levels that are screwing us. No amount of cold waters will offset that.
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GFS is always too progressive overall, kills off primaries too quickly, and sucks at thermal profiles that mesoscale models excel at. I'd be cautious with it when it's so different than other models.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
mob1 replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Sleet has some serious staying power though, it would preserve the snowmaking for a while (though in this case it's crazy cold afterwards so it wouldn't matter). -
The NAM is beautiful. I'd much rather have the thermals trend favorably and then figure out the precipitation distribution and intensity than the other way around.
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Probably a touch warmer than 6Z aloft as sleet moves in just a tiny bit earlier. Still a good run, with 7+ inches (at 10 to 1) accumulated by the time sleet moves in.
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On top of the synoptic impacts, verbatim this would yield a significant upslope event for the northern Green mountains. Still in fantasy range, but definitely fun to look at.
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First part of the storm should feature some good ratios. About -10C on all levels, temps in the DGZ region is ideal (-12 to 18 Celsius is what you want to see) and winds aren't overly strong.
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Still in fantasy range, but it would be nice to finish one storm and immediately start tracking the next one.
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I am not hating the 12Z suite so far, 6-10 inches of snow followed by some sleet.
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Sleet line is fast approaching here, but what a thump!
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The run-to-run changes out west (even in the short) on all models is wild, and really highlights the complexity of the storm. Oddly enough, the surface depictions are a lot more consistent.
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Early changes on the NAM seem positive, let's see what it shows on the surface in a few frames.
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Pretty much. After that it's a timing thing, if the phase out west comes together quickly, heights will quickly rise. Do many variables here, it's simultaneously frustrating and fascinating to track.
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Since what we're looking for out west seems to allude most people, I'll at least mention that confluence is notably better in the east at hour 36 than last run (heights are lower).
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It's just a blend of all models
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The V-day sleetfest (still my favorite sleet storm ever) had temps in the teens and low 20s and a storng high anchored upstate. A mid level warmth push can happen regardless of the surface depiction, happens here all the time.
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That blows
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NAM will likely be a lot more amped than at 06Z, the phasing out west is way cleaner. Initially heights out ahead were a bit lower, but in the last few frames it rises.
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Yesterday someone said that it could end up coming too far north and he was mocked mercilessly. This whole "the block is too strong" or "there's no way it can cut with that arctic high" is stupid, because when the models trend in an unfavorable direction the rest of it obviously also changed. Weather is always transient, and never assume anything is impossible. I can think of a million examples of storms that started oht with suppression being the only risk, only to end up raining to Albany.
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Better for ratios
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