mob1

That dryslot in southern NJ bugs me, I'm more concerned about that now than the mixing line. Either way, this storm has been amazing with 6" OTG and heavy snow continuing.

It usually moves in waves. Advances north, gets beaten back a bit, then surges north quicker and further north.

Cape May up to 30 degrees, parts of the Jersey shore will likely go above freezing as they have unfavorable winds off the ocean. For us, the coastal (or partial coastal if you wish, since the primary remains predominant for a while) keeps enough of a northerly component to the wind to save us. 14 degrees here and moderate snow. Eyeballing 3-4 inches.

I can't believe how cold surface temps are still around the area.

11 degrees and snowing in Central Park, not something you see often. 13 degrees with light snow falling here.

Next frame. RAP and HRRR have been getting warmer all day (not every run, but definitely overall throughout the day)

16 degrees in Central Park with a DP of -13. Models show the column saturating relatively quickly once the precipitation moves in, but some virga is to be expected.

It's possible. Very often in storms like this models underforecast the low level cold initially, but later in the forecast period the opposite is actually true. I've seen the city be stuck in the 20s all day in SWFE events despite models having it higher, then jump to the 40s or even higher towards the tail end when the dry slot approaches and/or the primary cutting north and west of us. With that said, the wind direction here argues against that. Maybe if coastal moves so far north that it actually bisects LI.

Yeah, that's what I mean, not piles in a parking lot.

Staten Island (I should really update that). I have about 300-400' elevation and don't get nearly the foot or car traffic I had in Brooklyn and it makes a big difference. I'll take and post a pic in a minute

I still have surprisingly decent snow coverage here, so technically this counts as the fabled snow on snow people north of me always talk about.

I was in Belleayre last Wednesday and conditions were already excellent, it's going to be beyond epic this week. I'm pretty much out of vacation days, but can always get sick

Both

RGEM is fine, stops the bleeding for now.

What an ugly 18Z suite so far. If it looks the same at 0Z, totals will have to come down by a lot.

I think 4-8" is the right forecast now till you get to 25+ miles north and west of the city.

That's 12Z, the new run is a lot further north.

NAM gets you to 32 for a bit, and if it's right about the primary being that strong and holding on for so long, it can be even warmer. Still snow and sleet with frigid temperatures to start, but when you can't just say it's cold when the entire dynamics change and it's entirely possible that a large chunk of coastal areas get to or above freezing.

For areas getting sleet on that frame, the issue is below 700 mb.

I'll add one. No single NYC proper airport or ASOS site (JFK, EWR, LGA, and NYC) will report double digit snowfall totals.

Sleet at least adds up and makes the snowpack last, we want to avoid rain though (NAM shows a bit at the tail end for southern parts of the city). Just need the NAM 30-40 miles south and I honestly don't care if we flip to sleet a bit earlier than modeled.

Sleet is all but guaranteed for most of us in the end, what I'm looking at now is heavier precipitation before the switch.

We'll see when the money frames come out, but so far the NAM seems marginally improved.

It's always far too cold/snowy in this range for this type of storm. It's a well known bias, and it can be pretty extreme sometimes.