
mob1
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Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?
mob1 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The January 26-27 2015 bust is a good example of that, the Euro showed an extremely tucked solution and like 40 inches of snow and the GFS was far more progressive (and right). -
Educations come and go, but virtual modeled snow is forever.
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Looks like it'll end up decently offshore (though there's still snow from the initial overrunning).
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Unreal guys
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Also known as "winter in the NYC metro area". Our slam dunk snow events are few and far between (and need to be cherished).
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Even 3 is likely a pipe dream for us. Even 1 seems like a stretch. I'm expecting something similar to what we had yesterday (maybe half an inch of slop).
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Every single model has trended towards moving the heaviest precipitation west of us. You're relying on a front to move through and falling temps, and I think you've been doing this long enough to understand that we usually cool slower than forecasted and with lighter precipitation you'll have BL issues even if it's sufficiently cold aloft. If the axis of heaviest precipitation moves back east a bit on models I'll be more confident, but right now I think you're setting yourself up for a major disappointment.