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mob1

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Everything posted by mob1

  1. mob1
    JFK already surpassed 4 inches with a heavy band moving in. We might get a nice break here soon and then we'll see if more rain develops.
  2. mob1
    HRRR is still all over the place
  3. mob1
    Drove from Staten Island to Midwood this morning through insane rainfall rates. That was hairy.
  4. mob1
    I'm in Brooklyn and it's absolutely pouring now. Rain has a tropical feel to it.
  5. mob1
    Let's compare that to what the 18Z HRRR had at this point.
  6. mob1
    Some areas south of Tom's River are closing in on 2 inches but models had almost nothing for them to this point. It doesn't necessarily mean anything for the main show later tonight into tomorrow, but it shows how hard these mesoscale features are to pin down.
  7. mob1
    What did it look at at 0Z? Never mind, Pivotal has a trend option.
  8. mob1
    Yes, let's. My favorite flooding event ever, my street was literally a river. None of the cars in these pictures are actually moving, they're all parked.
  9. mob1
    More like 7-9". It's confined to a relatively small area though, and looks like a classic winter norlun through with the isobars elongated towards the NW. Those suckers can generate a ton of forcing but are notoriously fickle and hard to pin down. More often than not, the axis of the heaviest precipitation ends up a bit NE of where it was modeled.
  10. mob1
    Yep, looks like a more realistic version of the NAM.
  11. mob1
    Absolutely pouring here for the past 20 minutes. These last few bands are going to add up quick.
  12. mob1
    Just crossed 2 inches for the event. It's been a slow bleed to get there so definitely not concerned about flooding.
  13. mob1
    We'll see if Ophelia's remnant low does indeed regenerate a bit to give parts of our region flooding rains. Models have hinted at it on and off, but for now it looks like a long shot.
  14. mob1
    These are a bit further east than the bands last night so it might clip a larger portion of the island.
  15. mob1
    Over 1.5" now with about the same amount left to go if models are to be believed.
  16. mob1
    1.27" here and there seems to be some nice bands that should rotate off the ocean in the next few hours. We'll see what tomorrow brings, but I'll probably end up with around 2 inches or so which is more than enough.
  17. mob1
    Now the GFS comes in with this. It's just impossible to get any kind of agreement and/or consistency from models anymore.
  18. mob1
    It's fine where it's now, we were discussing the shelf waters as it gets closer to the coast. Either way, should be a fairly steady state from now through landfall (might strengthen a bit in the next few hours but should weaken a bit as it approaches the coast).
  19. mob1
    You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5).
  20. mob1
  21. mob1
  22. mob1
    Maybe some kind of sting jet on the southern quadrant. It's actually quite common with subtropical "half-canes" at this latitude.
  23. mob1
    Recon so far has found flight level winds of 62 knots, surface at 48 knots and extrapolated pressure of 991 mb or so.
  24. mob1
    Verbatim, the GFS has a much more significant system the second time around. Some really strong winds and a ton of rain (it also coincides with the full moon). It's in fantasy range though, I can barely get it right 24 hours out.
  25. mob1
    It ultimately comes back for another round. Interesting evolution, it'll be fun to see what happens.
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