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Palm Sunday - Monday (3/24-25/13) Threat

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thunderman

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blog-0701907001363727046.gifWhile still being a day 5ish event, it is not to early to start looking at some of the possible implications of various models.

At this juncture, we generally have the GFS and the Euro book-ending a possibilities window that includes a cutter to Chicago and a more suppressed system that goes East of Hatteras For the most part been consistently left of the GFS ... with its ensembles a tad to the right of the operational Euro (but no where near the GFS). The 12z GFS Ensembles cut the difference with somewhat of a middle ground ... bringing the primary low into Ohio, with a coastal transfer.

Depending on the amount of moisture return that is achieved in the warm sector, the operational GFS could be a notable severe weather event. And would keep QPF amounts across the DC/NOVA area on the light side with little possibilities for winter weather. The transfer with this solution simply happens too late to provide the lift for precipitation and wraparound of cold air.

Then we have the Euro with it's more southern solution. It would mean a smaller spatial window for severe weather possibilities and a better chance for wintry weather for the area (especially west ... like we saw with the early March event).

Given the time range and the placement of the the ensembles in the middle of the operationals I would expect to see some compromise towards the middle in terms of track over the next 1-3 days ... rather than an extreme on either side verifying. If I had to pick a solution verbatim from this mornings 12z suite for the heck of it, it would be the GEFS.

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