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Everything posted by WeatherFox
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- 1,593 replies
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- 2
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The trend is not your friend.
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Sat-Sun June 4-5, 2022...The upcoming weekend wl remain subject to approach of an area of disturbed weather presently taking shape over the western Caribbean. NHC projections have a "High" chance of development into a named system by the time it nears S FL on Sat. With an anticipated track presently near to south of central Fl, local rainfall projections are largely subject to how organized the system wl become by the time of closest point of approach to the area during this weekend. A rather sharp rainfall gradient is possible N-S over the peninsula should the system become more organized, and/or a track further south than currently advertised. A loosely composed baroclinic/hybrid system would potentially serve better prospects for local wetting rains, and with anticipation a NHC developed track and intensity forecast wl be used as baseline by late this week, future wind/rain forecasts wl remain subject to revision.
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Just before my 4th Birthday, and contributed to my love of SNOW!
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Radiational cooling--clear skies and calm winds.
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Earlier NWS NYC Forecast Discussion: "This will overall be a minor light snow event. Snowfall totals are expected to be greatest over eastern Long Island, where 1-2 inches are possible. Farther west over northeastern NJ and NYC up to an inch is possible. Snow totals drop off farther north, with the CT coast and southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley likely seeing less than an inch and far northern locations staying dry. Trends in track will need to be monitored given the nature of the tight gradient in QPF and snowfall. Timing of the event may be the biggest concern. Snow starts in the early morning hours on Monday and will continue through the evening. This could impact the morning commute and potentially the evening commute for eastern Long Island. With temperatures dropping quickly overnight tonight to below freezing, snow is expected to stick right away. Given the uncertainty that surrounds this system, and current light snowfall totals, have decided to hold off on any headlines over our area in collaboration with neighboring offices. Subsequent shifts will have to monitor new guidance and a Winter Weather Advisory may be possible for eastern Long Island.."