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Sat-Sun June 4-5, 2022...The upcoming weekend wl remain subject to approach of an area of disturbed weather presently taking shape over the western Caribbean. NHC projections have a "High" chance of development into a named system by the time it nears S FL on Sat. With an anticipated track presently near to south of central Fl, local rainfall projections are largely subject to how organized the system wl become by the time of closest point of approach to the area during this weekend. A rather sharp rainfall gradient is possible N-S over the peninsula should the system become more organized, and/or a track further south than currently advertised. A loosely composed baroclinic/hybrid system would potentially serve better prospects for local wetting rains, and with anticipation a NHC developed track and intensity forecast wl be used as baseline by late this week, future wind/rain forecasts wl remain subject to revision.

Just before my 4th Birthday, and contributed to my love of SNOW!

This will be a nowcasting event. Tho, Don's post shows increased and expanded potential.

NWS bumped Central Park a tab. Preliminary Snow Totals - January 7, 2022 ❄️LaGuardia: 9.7" ❄️Bridgeport: 8.4" ❄️Islip: 6.6" ❄️JFK: 6.2" ❄️Central Park: 5.8" ❄️Newark: 5.2"

Here the latest NWS briefing on the snow potential for late Thursday night into the Friday morning commute. #nycwx #njwx #ctwx #liwx #nywx On Tweeter

Model Output Statistics (MOS), were a strong resource for forecasting surface weather parameters temperature, dew point, winds, precipitation, etc. I understand the National Weather Service looks to phase some MOS out in the future.

Agree, by KNYC I'm referring to Manhattan where it's mostly sidewalks, streets, cars, "urban heat Island and the snow is expected to be light.

After reviewing the 12Z MOS for KYC, I'll go with 1-2" mostly on any grass and car tops. Drive safely if out on the road during the period of inclement weather.

Radiational cooling--clear skies and calm winds.

Out to sea, but my guess at this point is 2-4" for NYC. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

This Weather Prediction Center prog hmm for the NYC area.

NWS Eastern Region.

Bring it west.

Looking good, will see what happens. Still plenty of time and models to evaluate, etc..

Model Output Statistics (MOS) for New York City, NY. Thursday PM to Friday AM-Q24 numbers of 1 & 3-light snow potential.

With 48 hours out model watches look for "the trend is your friend" to forecast the potential snowfall. I personally was taught MOS versus dynamic models for short range weather forecasting.

East of the 40/70 Benchmark at this time.

00Z MOS for JFK and LaGuardia Airports in NYC. Light snow indicated..

Earlier NWS NYC Forecast Discussion: "This will overall be a minor light snow event. Snowfall totals are expected to be greatest over eastern Long Island, where 1-2 inches are possible. Farther west over northeastern NJ and NYC up to an inch is possible. Snow totals drop off farther north, with the CT coast and southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley likely seeing less than an inch and far northern locations staying dry. Trends in track will need to be monitored given the nature of the tight gradient in QPF and snowfall. Timing of the event may be the biggest concern. Snow starts in the early morning hours on Monday and will continue through the evening. This could impact the morning commute and potentially the evening commute for eastern Long Island. With temperatures dropping quickly overnight tonight to below freezing, snow is expected to stick right away. Given the uncertainty that surrounds this system, and current light snowfall totals, have decided to hold off on any headlines over our area in collaboration with neighboring offices. Subsequent shifts will have to monitor new guidance and a Winter Weather Advisory may be possible for eastern Long Island.."

Advisory creeping close to the NYC area: Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 906 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 DEZ001-NJZ013-014-016>019-PAZ070-071-031500- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.220103T0900Z-220103T2100Z/ New Castle-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-Gloucester- Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Including the cities of Wilmington, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media, and Philadelphia 906 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Parts of central and southwestern New Jersey, far southeastern Pennsylvania and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From 4:00 AM until 4:00 PM Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use extra caution while driving.

I’ve been around a long time. This could be the “surprise” snowstorm or the disappointing one. We are always concerned about warmer air changeover of a potential snowstorm to sleet, rain amongst other things..

NWS NYC did.. The forecast area will be on the northern fringes of the low, there is a large precipitation gradient and a track closer to the coast could lead to more in the way of snow if further model runs show a continued northward jog. At this time, the thinking is for less than an inch for portions of northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, southern Connecticut and western Long Island, while 1 to 2 inches is expected across central and easter Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southwestern Connecticut will see little, if any snow. It`s worth noting that a few short range ensemble means bring warning level criteria to southern portions of the forecast area, but did not go that high given aforementioned uncertainty.

NWS Mount Holly this morning… This is a rapidly evolving forecast and users should monitor the forecast closely through the course of today as additional changes, potentially significant, are possible.

Cold is just 1 of the dots to be connected and your modeling the long range.