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Radiational cooling--clear skies and calm winds.

Out to sea, but my guess at this point is 2-4" for NYC. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

This Weather Prediction Center prog hmm for the NYC area.

NWS Eastern Region.

Bring it west.

Looking good, will see what happens. Still plenty of time and models to evaluate, etc..

Model Output Statistics (MOS) for New York City, NY. Thursday PM to Friday AM-Q24 numbers of 1 & 3-light snow potential.

With 48 hours out model watches look for "the trend is your friend" to forecast the potential snowfall. I personally was taught MOS versus dynamic models for short range weather forecasting.

East of the 40/70 Benchmark at this time.

00Z MOS for JFK and LaGuardia Airports in NYC. Light snow indicated..

Earlier NWS NYC Forecast Discussion: "This will overall be a minor light snow event. Snowfall totals are expected to be greatest over eastern Long Island, where 1-2 inches are possible. Farther west over northeastern NJ and NYC up to an inch is possible. Snow totals drop off farther north, with the CT coast and southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley likely seeing less than an inch and far northern locations staying dry. Trends in track will need to be monitored given the nature of the tight gradient in QPF and snowfall. Timing of the event may be the biggest concern. Snow starts in the early morning hours on Monday and will continue through the evening. This could impact the morning commute and potentially the evening commute for eastern Long Island. With temperatures dropping quickly overnight tonight to below freezing, snow is expected to stick right away. Given the uncertainty that surrounds this system, and current light snowfall totals, have decided to hold off on any headlines over our area in collaboration with neighboring offices. Subsequent shifts will have to monitor new guidance and a Winter Weather Advisory may be possible for eastern Long Island.."

Advisory creeping close to the NYC area: Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 906 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 DEZ001-NJZ013-014-016>019-PAZ070-071-031500- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.220103T0900Z-220103T2100Z/ New Castle-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-Gloucester- Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Including the cities of Wilmington, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media, and Philadelphia 906 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Parts of central and southwestern New Jersey, far southeastern Pennsylvania and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From 4:00 AM until 4:00 PM Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use extra caution while driving.

I’ve been around a long time. This could be the “surprise” snowstorm or the disappointing one. We are always concerned about warmer air changeover of a potential snowstorm to sleet, rain amongst other things..

NWS NYC did.. The forecast area will be on the northern fringes of the low, there is a large precipitation gradient and a track closer to the coast could lead to more in the way of snow if further model runs show a continued northward jog. At this time, the thinking is for less than an inch for portions of northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, southern Connecticut and western Long Island, while 1 to 2 inches is expected across central and easter Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southwestern Connecticut will see little, if any snow. It`s worth noting that a few short range ensemble means bring warning level criteria to southern portions of the forecast area, but did not go that high given aforementioned uncertainty.

NWS Mount Holly this morning… This is a rapidly evolving forecast and users should monitor the forecast closely through the course of today as additional changes, potentially significant, are possible.

Cold is just 1 of the dots to be connected and your modeling the long range.

Congratulations, with 20 years you could retire, but stay around and enjoy the experience.

Yes, including a number of zero cities and trace cities..

NWS Eastern Region @NWSEastern "A look at how far below average the seasonal snowfall totals are running at Eastern US climate locations as of December 26th." 5 more days to make some revisions!

Agree. When it's this far out there is no certainty to the forecast. It's just something to keep an eye on. We know that even short range forecasts are not always certain.

Ya, that's a possible long range snowstorm for folks in Maine.

Here are the accumulation reports: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS

Snowfall accumulation reports: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS

From the NWS Pittsburgh, PA The official definition of a "White Christmas" is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground (snow depth) at 7 a.m. Christmas morning, December 25th. ❄️