wdrag

CAMS ended up too aggressive to the south edge except NSSL WRF, HRRR, SPC HREF. 0.18 in Wantage. Looks like svr occurred just along the western border of NJ.

Take a look at the various CAMS from 00z/24 available to forecasters this afternoon. My model based guess: coming across NJ and grazing NYC later this eve. Some recent GFS cycles have had this event into NNJ. 12z/24 SPC HREF seems lackluster compared to reality. https://cams.nssl.noaa.gov/?model=wrf_nssl_3km-v3&product=qpf_006h&sector=spc_ne&postage_stamp=false

Anyone tracking MOS Max T performance at EWR and CP since the 19th? Despite the rains of the 18th and 21st, my guess is MOS MAX T is running a little low at these two locations.

Hope?: Finally some decent wrinkles in the Great Lakes eastern Rockies extension of the persistent summer 2022 nw flow (trough 70W) pattern that the EC finally latches onto (GEFS/GEPS seem to have muddled their way into more qpf faster than the big surge in todays 12z/EPS). I can only hope that these wrinkles are legit, and break what seems to be our worst dry spell since 2017-18 here in Sussex County NJ (attached) since 2017 (per drought monitor stats). Drought in our Sussex County NJ, the two wrinkles per 12z EPS seen in Tropical Tidbits and the EPS QPF per Pivotal Weather through D10 that is now double the mean qpf compared to many previous cycles. I hope this is somewhat correct. Our home in Wantage NJ: less than 1/4" since 6/23. Yes, we missed the TOR/SVR storm just 10-15 miles to our south from a couple days ago.

So, what may happen soon, MOS cool bias due to drying ground. RH won't be quite as high but for us, hotter temps than guidance. Still looks overall drier than normal here through the 24th...at least the 24th. Hoping for a deluge with one of the fronts. WPC on average...less than 0.3" here next 7 days. Noting also a SVR risk on SPC D4 nw parts of our area. (Tue)

Digital had 1" near Crandon Lakes... til here in Wantage. Bummer but it is what hit is...summer convection. Pattern has to change to southwest flow aloft along east coast before we get better chances.

good post and I checked NJ

Believe it or not, showers you see that just popped ups central and southern Sussex County NJ...missed our home by 5 miles but .36" in a few minutes in Frankford NJ near the Sheriffs Department.

On Drought?: Via CoCoRaHs since 6/23: noting stripe of less than 0.30 sw Ct across NNJ. Future not looking wetter than normal through the 21st. Target watering.

fwiw and unsure whether others on here notice: D1, D2 qpf generally closely follows SPC HREF. In summer am not sure that is a good idea, thinking that there must be some stats that show other convective modeling can improve on SPC HREF; especially in normal or above normal PWAT situations. This is where I think SPC HREF has a consistent failure to recognize qpf above what it predicts in the MEAN. Additionally, I thought this image would demo at least one part of the SPC checks for SVR D2. Exampled HRRR expectations of SVR vs the SPC 2. NW flow driven convection. Am rooting for rain that has missed this part of Sussex County..about 0.2" since June 23. Checking back, noticed it's been pretty dry eastern NYS and much of NJ the past month generally 25-50% of normal. See attached for use of HRRR guidance and click for more details. On 7/6 around 10z-619AM EDT, I added the SPC sir reports for comparison.

Lots of stories NYT, NJ papers but no map that I could find in my search, including Northeast Snow Storms (KU) and Storm Data and other resources.

Probably everyone is aware of accumulations now in parts of Morris and Sussex counties in nw NJ as well ne PA high terrain. None here yet at this 740' elevation but its wet snow and down to 33.4F.

I think todays 12z/17 SPC HREF will put things in prespective. GFS very late to the game compared to EC/GGEM. all modeling with an elevation snowstorm..suspect a few wet snow power outages PA-e central NYS Mon night (including Catskills). I am counting on 1" here at the house in Wantage NJ when I wake up Tuesday morning. ONLY the amped NAM is too warm now. System I think is being played down too much. 1983 April 18-19 I think, according to Nick Stefano 10-18" northern Sussex County. If my thinking is correct I will take a picture of our ballfields in Sparta Tue 730A when I expect to see a slight covering of snow and obvious to me, unplayable due to overnight rain. If I'm wrong, no picture. Happy Easter 2022! Walt 841A/17

Good morning after the fact but revisiting a comment made I think in late March about the prolonged hard freeze killing blossoms (buds) this spring. NOT happening. Magnolia surviving and blossoming right now here at home in Wantage NJ.

So here in Sussex County, I did a ride up to High Point State Park (attached)... that 1/2" grass is just under 1500' 2 hrs after max accumulation and temp in the mid 30s. Snow accumulation began around 1250' up there (as of 1PM equated to 2 hours of melting). The HP Monument had 1.5" and many reports in the Poconos of 1-2", also generally above 1500 feet. R/S mix down to 700 feet here in Wantage but barely could see the snow except windshield splatter-most folks at 700 feet probably didn't notice.

Briefly 3/4MI in snow at at 240P. down to 34F, from a high of 40.1. Looking for measurable snow this evening there between 6-11PM as a cold front of sorts shifts southeastward through our area with large moist low lvl lapse rates stabilizing a bit as the influx of cold air overnight. FOUS has it nice with the LI stabilizing toward 06z, BL wind increasing and the large low lvl lapse rate drying out a bit toward 06z. BGM radar seems to be showing a nice band progressing southeast, passing through ITHica and Cortland NY now. wd/247P-27

Stratwarm advertised by the EC 10MB weeklies in late February? Seems like it, but counter arguments will be reviewed. Might take longer to dissipate this cooler spell than currently ensembled?

No question Joe Rao's 1990s or thereabouts research on big Dec likely means a snowier than normal winter for NYC - again seems to verify barring a miracle the next 3 weeks. Sighhh,

I Hope EPS is true -- EPS is our best chance for any late season snow in the interior. Unfortunately, 00z/20 GEFS/GEPS not as enthusiastic. They more or less agree for the 23rd-24th, but that is an inside runner, (imo); 26-27 seems like GEPS/GEFS are too little too late and not dragging south and west as per the EPS (attached for quick view). Maybe the EPS will work? I keep looking for a solid sign of late season snow here along I84 but nothing consistent and for me, I might have to live with the 26" (this part of Wantage NJ 8 s of High Point at 740'MSL) seasonal total (to date) which is at least 15" below normal.

Continue monitoring GGEM, to see if it shows wintry hazard consistency near I80 or I84. Unsure whether 00z/17 cycle is a start in the wintry direction. Little doubt in my mind 23-24 will be a sizable event in the northeast. whatever the precip.

GFS off and on past 2 days 23-30. Already I84 GFS consistent Ice high terrain 23-24. However, my interest is tempered to chanceym until the GGEM comes on board. Again last event, GGEM/RGEM more or less had a consistent idea of heaviest snow... certainly NOT the EC (whew). So til the GGEm gets with it, then the EC...I'll keep going with outdoor spring cleanup and enjoy the warmth of the sun. Walt

Is winter done? Don't know, but at least the qpf events will be fairly often the next 3-4 weeks. Will timing work for marginal wet snow events, preferably at night so we can be greeted at sunrise with beautiful tree covered leftover accumulations, instead of watching it melt on contact during the day? Seems sort of early to say no more snow above 1 inch/event, especially I84. See some sign of attempting to have leftover wintry cold lurking Canadian border toward April 1. For now, time for me to trim-prune-prepare the gardens.

A number of reports in Sussex County NJ are higher than my own and I could be conservative. Difficult measuring here due to blowing-drifting-compaction of small flake snow. Now down to 21F with blowing drifting snow adding slush back onto treated-plowed roads. Vsby briefly down under 1/2Mile in blowing snow when gusts exceed ~30 MPH. Peak so far here 40 MPH in Wantage (306PM) with 3.1" so far. Increasing reports of 45-50 MPH gusts NYC subforum including LI to KMPO.

Wantage NJ 3.1" snow easing. 25.5F plowed street now slushy. max gust so far 32 MPH. Mount Holly and JFK have gusted to 46 MPH recently. Power outages PA-FL...max gusts so far in the 55kt range e NC to N FL

Wantage NJ 4sw: snow increase 1.3" past hour ending 11A 2.2 on the ground. densely packed small flake snow. 26F. Accum as best i can do with multi measurements and gusty winds causing some blowing. Walt