wdrag

No thread, at least not yet... but the week ahead seems like opportunity for mesoscale excesses. Many models disagree with the EPS (and occasionally the CMC suite) ever increasing heavy rain threat for parts of our NNJ portion of the NYC subforum. For now will go with 3" max Mon afternoon-evening somewhere up here-probably near I95. (Chantel 850 flow-moisture advection combined with RRQ of th UL jet over New England) Looking ahead...the CF heavy convection in parts of the area Tue. Then Thu-Fri, maybe Sat... heavy rain potential with southern stream short wave and warm front returning. Some of the experimental modeling has us in small chance iso FF THU-Sat (spot 5"+ this 3 day period). Added July CoCoRaHs totals as a baseline. Click for clarity. Next potential 3 day (dry) haying period around 7/16-19? Cleaned up the FF potential graphics at 752AM

So... unless I'm wrong, the pattern for summer is established. Weakness in the southern and eastern USA. Generally at or ABOVE normal temps around here. Next chance for FF opportunity in our NYC subforum seems to be in the July 8-15 time frame THOUGH AI seems to deny.

Agreed on premise. Too bad we have to be sarcastic and use CP as a cooling center. Powers that be have created the situation and for the diehards (point specific accuracy), not acceptable.

Southern edge of NYC subforum verified 5+. See attached. SVR was reserved for southern edge of our subforum - NJ. Two day totals attached as of 730AM July 2. (You can unpin whenever you want).

So far via weather underground 4.36 Asbury park and 4.13 Herbertsville...sough edge of our forum. That's today only. does not include anything last evening.

Dissapointing die off near I80 overnight, after 2+ near Trenton and apparently 1-1.5 parts of southeast LI earlier today. This afternoon-night should be active with mesoscale SVR/FF reports. Leftover rain Wed morning LI-NJ. I probably wont be back on til late today.

Added CPC July ... issued 6/30

Something is bothering me about the constancy of PW over 2" into Wednesday morning, the likelihood 2 - possibly 3 bands of heavy showers and embedded strong thunderstorm passing through our area with plenty of ML Cape over 1200J and 30 kt+ deep layer shear, enough for severe storms, damage, power outages. One band of convection now approaching I78-i80 at 515PM June 30 should weaken soon after sunset. A band of heavy convection should occur predawn Tuesday (Wfront?) with another band redevelopment late Wednesday morning or afternoon (CF). The EC suite differs a bit from HRRR/GFS suite. Now emerging is a 3rd band early Wednesday NJ/LI prior to clearing out the complex frontal boundary out of here. FF and SVR, both mesoscale with some modeling offering isolated 5" amounts in NJ and very low probability, LI, by the time this is done. SPC has us in severe and WPC slight risk FF. If the overnight band is insignificant, then this will likely be a wasted short fuse thread.

You'll get yours if we shift into a significant wet tropical season Aug-Sept. No idea on reasoning for a lot of climate variability---

Looks temporary and not quite as strong but it will get into the 90s vcnty NYC (INLAND for sure again) at least several days between July 5-10. Seems to shift west after the 10th but part of the variability.

Looks like CPC continues with a warmer than normal July as posted in their 6/19 outlook. Here are some steps in that direction. Their updated monthly should post 6/30. Below from yesterday 6/27 for June periods as listed.

Topping off Bluewave post above: NEVER before have we been able to accurately highlight heatwaves locally 5-7 days in advance. A final from myself (which may have already posted?), this was the 6th warmest 3 day max temp average in Newarks POR dating back to 1931. See attached. I do remember June-July 2010 (see July listing in the attached) when I'd transferred to Mt Holly... a brutal summer start as I recall. Not expecting a repeat this summer but these heat wave excesses are not well modeled beyond 10 days, so cant be absolutely sure we've seen our worst but Bluewave has it right on the excesses earlier. Have a good day and now enjoy a reasonable summer with local excesses.

Summer variability as outlooked 6/24... nothing outrageous outlooked as the ridge locks in near the Rockies with troughing in the east. Implies brief hot incursions with frontal passages seemingly progressive. Heaviest rain axis continues outlooked Appalachians to the Mississippi -Ohio Valley. Modeling doesn't pick up excesses very well beyond 10 days. Guidance suggests a warmer than normal month in our area. 6/30. added CPC 1 mo outlook.

So, I aw Don's post-thank you. Added PHI max T RTP today below. HI generally less tomorrow but actual temp hotter and the overwhelming warmth aloft and w-nw BL flow will make it more difficult for sea breezes. My guess NYC makes 100-101 and KEWR close to 103-104. EPS has been pretty good! a third 100 degree day possible I95 corridor Wednesday, presuming it makes 100+ Tuesday. Despite the weak gradient, large low level lapse rates allow downward transfer of offshore nw wind from between 850-700mb.

NJ now up to 15000 meters without power

fwiw... and I need to check some guidance but tomorrows 100+ should reach NYC and much of interior w LI. Airmass overhead entire area is similar. Too much real estate for the cooler seabreeze to mitigate before 3PM, especially after a head start tomorrow morning at sunrise of 80+. Pretty good chance interior NJ hits 100 on Wed before storms.

No July thread yet... but thinking on it next several days but need go check some stuff. Looks active to me

Low this morning Wantage NJ. 76. Dewpoint 74.

.01 the part of Wantage at 1030A/22. had rolls of thunder for 3 hours but less than anticipated rainfall.

Shower-thunderstorm-cloud debris event today has suppressing impact on MAX T here... hoping we can reach 90-92 at 530P. How it plays exactly I dont know. 00z/06z/22 M-W GEFS and NWS BOM numbers a little less than the amped EPS. Can't be sure what happens and for now stay the course...but offer hope that this heat episode might not be quite as dire as headlined but still significant life impact in our area. Urging: Continue preparedness as stated in NWS products. Seems like better chance for the headline 4 day period verifying in Philly--DC areas. They're pretty used to this mid summer but no doubt it's still a vigorous potent early season heat episode. Action packed afternoon-evenings late Wed 6/25 into early July and lawns-gardens will have brief significant dousings etc. In essence... headline confidence slightly lower but will let the numbers decide the next 4 days.

12z/21,EPS continues 100+ Mon_Tue and 100 Wed. Tomorrow 94-99. So despite the EC op cooler its overall ensemble agreement is not large. Continue as is stated. My guess ERs will be deluged with heat related illness next 4-5 days. No fun if you can’t urinate. Think it’s a catheter before you discharge from the ER. You don’t want to have to deal with that til you’re very old. hydrate properly. Follow the call to actions.

Agreed. Ensembles smooth this out. I did notice BOM several dege cooler than EPS.

That’s a start. Everyone has seen single op model back door interruption 12z Mon NAm and TUE EC

Newark I think hit 90 before 2PM

Perfect. Thank you very much Don!