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wdrag

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. Later start and shorter duration of snow (maybe 4 hours... amounts less, I84 corridor probably less than 1". NYC-PHL probably doesn't start snowing til 830-9A and sticking in the urban streets may be difficult due to temps still only near freezing during the snow. Will help if there is a burst of moderate snow. I'll give it a 1/2-2" range. Just changed to flurries here at 605A but temp still 34.5. too warm too long and lots of warmth to flush out toward I95. We probably had our CFP around 445A.
  2. Not looking promising this 4 day period but still a little uncertainty. The snowstorm itself via modeling trend is reduced in size and intensity. Tomorrow morning I will look at the modeling-any trends and adjust thread title.
  3. Well, in part because it is technically correct as ANA. But my take on science is try to simplify into language that cost of us understand. There is also lots of met technics that are beyond my clear understanding, that re purportedly better than old school. Fortunately old school still works. So, arctic cold front snow can work... (myself I likely to reserve arctic for 0F cold in NYC). However, I flex to not lose a persons interest. Back tonight.
  4. I know the violins and singing bye-bye OTS are close at hand, if not already pronounced by the weather ME (medical examiners): but below is why I cannot yet pronounce this gone. Note the spaghetti on the right panel for the time shown-18z/Saturday/22. The mean flow is less that 100% confident. MANY members of the 06z/19 have a hang back circulation that could mean a little later development and a more northward push if they verify. I think our NAM/RGEM will be onto this by the 07z/20 cycle tomorrow morning if the hang back verifies. If not: the orchestra plays. Click the graphic to get a better view, if interested. My last on this, probably til Thursday morning. Have a day.
  5. Yes...that looks correct. best should near I95 westward. My last post til this evening. What i do from this time forward is use the SPC HREF meanssnowfall...axis should be very good. It will be available by 11A. and of course the HRRR 12z and 18z versions. Have a great day! Let's look forward to an even nicer looking landscape tomorrow morning. The evening visit will start the OBS-NOWcast of this thread, probably a straight conversion of this one. Also, for the many of us who do not use the term ana front, katafront. One reason i don't is that its a bit confusing. In my opinion, I view the ANAfront as a warm front...(despite its cold front southward passage) frequently will be a wave of pressure falls rippling along it to generate the qpf.
  6. Try... not all work out. I still haven't given up on 1/21-24. Something has to happen here.
  7. This Thursday morning event continues. Expect a few 4-5" amounts northern NJ, se NYC, sw CT. Follow HRRR I think is best, Definitely going to impact the Thursday morning commute as temps fall to freezing or below by 9AM. Added an experimental impact graphic. My last on this til late today when I'll update the thread and make it OBS-NOWCAST. Should be a sweet morning snowfall for some of us. Have a day.
  8. Probably too positive a tilt on the 500MB pattern to allow anything north to our area 21-22. Still monitoring but for now, this one is more RDU-RIC.
  9. HRRR was mostly real good on the 16th event and will be again... slightly amped but the idea is there. It's a warm model so when it says snow... better pay attention if snow is your concern. Will try and comment at 6AM..depends: am on-call.
  10. Okay, what I mess on the dual thread, i never saw the ANA thread... My apology. Anyway, We are going to have minor to moderate impact snow event in the subforum because of occurrence during the Thursday rush hour and temps falling below freezing after initial rain showers (all snow nw NJ per NAM). I'll stay with 1-3" through the subforum with I84 on the northern fringe. The appended 21z NWS ensemble now shows a good risk of 1+, pops too low but going in the right direction. I will not be surprised at some 4-5" amounts w NJ e PA nw of I95. Good idea to be preparing for morning delays for travel and school starts (non remote).
  11. Didn't realize this topic was started as Anafront etc. Stay there. I won't comment further here. If you wish delete this particular topic thread. Thanks, Walt
  12. While uncertainty exists on the target for a rain to hazardous brief commuter significant snow event, a thread has been started to take the load off January. Thursday morning I84-NYC-PHL: Looks like 1-3" of snow in a 6 hour period centered on sunrise, with potential significant impact to morning travel due to temps falling to freezing during snowfall. There is model uncertainty on amounts. Snow could fall for an hour at 1/2-1". I84 itself seems to be on the northern fringe where snowfall could be less than 1". Amounts also depend on how fast the preceding predawn rain showers change to snow but I am confident of a snow event, just not confident who gets the biggest impact. Tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea of travel impact. I would add that climo on something like this probably favors an inch or less NYC CP, but I do think there is going to be a narrow lane of more than 1" per multiple model indications. NWS ensemble risk of greater than 1" is less than 30%, so that is the reasoning for calling this Potential, in the headline. 656PM: adjusted Title to OBS-NOWCAST. Added freezing rain and rain to the tags. First batch of mixed precip should arrive ne PA, extreme nw NJ and se NYS around 1-2A as snow freezing rain-rain, but the primary batch is slated to occur between 5AM and Noon as snow north and west of NYC til NYC-Li and NJ I95 changes to snow around 7-830A. It ends from northwest to southeast, first in nw NJ by 11A and then NYC by 1P and further southeast during mid afternoon. Amounts near I84 of a dusting to possibly 2" with a general 1.5-4" in the core of the event from near NYC/LI-down I95 in NJ. It may briefly snow 1/2mi moderate for an hour or so. Still a little uncertain where the 4 inches are...probably NJ/LI.
  13. East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE. The snow could fall as sleet-freezing rain Raleigh east. Even Atlanta may see some snow from this. A better idea of timing and target will post tomorrow. If you are interested: The European model has been targeting the entire corridor with a snow storm from near Atlanta to NYC-BOS for a couple of days now, while other models are relucant, so uncertainty exists. Attached experimental graphic which does not include the probable storm continuing on the 22nd.
  14. My post to FB friends ATL-BOS: This holds till I can update a couple of threads and only my take based on modeling that we all see. The heart of winter, probably lingers til about Valentines Day with snow opportunities and a couple of real cold shots. Today: scattered morning flurries I84 to Tughill diminish midday. Thursday morning I84-NYC-PHL: Looks like 1-3" of snow in a 6 hour period centered on sunrise, with potential significant impact to morning travel due to temps falling to freezing during snowfall. There is model uncertainty on amounts. Snow could fall for an hour at 1/2-1". I84 itself seems to be on the northern fringe where snowfall could be less than 1". Amounts also depend on how fast the preceding predawn rain showers change to snow but I am confident of a snow event, just not confident who gets the biggest impact. Tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea of travel impact. East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE. The snow could fall as sleet-freezing rain Raleigh east. Even Atlanta may see some snow from this. A better idea of timing and target will post tomorrow. If you are interested: The European model has been targeting the entire corridor with a snow storm from near Atlanta to NYC-BOS for a couple of days now, while other models are relucant, so uncertainty exists. An experimental impact graphic follows for Friday into Saturday. It's incomplete not including the whole storm. 646A/18
  15. Will begin a Thursday morning thread by 745AM. 1-3" of snow looks to be coming to a part of the forum with any rain possibly washing away pre treatment brine and then snow with temps falling to freezing potentially making for a very hazardous morning commute. Timing and location of best snowfall (1/2 to 1" for 1 hour?) unknown but targeting the subforum. More at 745 AM. Will also update the 21-24 thread headline around 8A. Regarding the weeklies. I look at 500MB and noticed the 7day average weeklies start a pretty good warming of 500MB near the 12th. In that potential transition warming, I see WAA and possible snowfall before the warmth follows. These are weeklies a month in advance... only my subjective take of potentially shakey guidance 3 weeks in advance. I could be wrong. But I am telling my FB group to think winter til about Valentines Day, which is all seasonable cold with one or 2 big cold shots. Usually it can snow in seasonable cold. I do not see dominating overwhelming warmth til at least the 12th. I hope I dont eat my words - Maybe I'll have to give it up sooner, but this is a good 2- possibly 4 week pattern coming.
  16. I looked at the 00z/17 weeklies and imo, I think we're good for snow opportunities til about Valentines Day when the entire region in NAM north of 60N becomes cold with a dominant vortex up there (cold anomalies), where I don't think we want. So, I think this means, 2-4 more weeks of snow opportunities. Not threading Thursday morning (20th) tonight, since the 18z EC doesn't have anything going on. I am thinking the 00z/18 EC will drift over and that we'll get more consensus with this strong cold front bringing a 1-3" snowfall during rush hour with temps falling to freezing, for a significant portion of our subforum but I can't commit at this time since too many models say NO-it won't happen. Just have to sit on it til maybe there is more favorable modeling. Back in the morning.
  17. Also added wrap up event data through 7AM Monday the 17th. NYC CP 0.8", PHL 0.7" snowfall. More data is appended. Click to enable more clarity and use the legend to your advantage. Thanks.
  18. I've looked at this through the 18z/17 cycle.: I think some snow is coming for us in this 4day window but no certitude. The GEFS/GFS is very dry for us in this 4a day window as opposed to the EPS which has a nice 850 MB Low and snowstorm from near ATL through the East Coast to New England. Let's keep monitoring. There two short waves. The first is the coastal low snow event 21/22, the second around the 24th (cold front and wave of low pressure?) should drop a substantial cold shot behind it. More tomorrow morning.
  19. Glad there is backside snowfall. Not adding anything to snowfall. However, appended the rain and snow totals in the core of our area through about 7A<, as well as glance the tidal trace at Sandy Hook to show how the wind quit - shift to south just before dawn abruptly dropped the risk of serious coastal flooding to the Sandy Hook area. I may be wrong but I didn't hear of any reality moderate coastal flooding. I do see minor NNJ coast into w LI as using BDR and SHK tide gauge info. Also appended the NOHRSC snowfall analysis through 7AM.
  20. Monitoring Thursday for a 1-3" thread LI/NYC but no action at this time. There NAM has to start backing off. If it continues the 12z/17 cycle for the 06z/18..I'll start the thread. I have more confidence in Thursday being a hit than Fri-Sat which I'm pretty sure will happen along the East Coast, but not sure if it strikes here or mid-Atlantic states southward. At least 12z/17 OP EC Run was north of 00z. Have not looked at everything and won't have til about 8 tonight.
  21. I think anyone with more than. 3 inches on the ground now has a good chance of seeing an inch or more on the ground thru Ground Hog Day. Just need a new storm for I-95. Going to be easier now to drill 4 degrees down to NYC some time. Next week.
  22. By the way: Not sure anyone has noticed, and I stand corrected, but no coastal flooding NJ Coast to sw side of LI as far as i can tell. Wind shifted and lessened prior to high tide and not enough duration of gale force winds. We are at high tide now... there could be some pockets of minor in there but overall at the standard tide stations used prior to 2018, no flooding as far as i can tell. Max wind at airports that I saw was ~57MPH at JFK - 250AM, with many reports in the of gusts in the 50-58 MPH range for LI. I se the Blue wave report above and I did not check marine platforms. Back midday with CoCoRaHs assessment of snowfall and qpf.
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