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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    From the past two mornings partially reiterated: No chatter yet on the impact of the block - a block that would be helpful for wintry weather in winter. The block lasts at least through October and now seemingly the first week of November?. I didn't carefully check whether ensemble modeling nailed this 5H blocking, October 1 or earlier? EPS did not have it very well at all for late October. Anyway, while the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month. That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms. Cyclically since at least this past Wednesday, the ECMWF OP CF has a squall line of scattered 45-60 MPH gusts Monday morning, with differing target areas in NJ/e PA/srn NYS. Could be a few power outages/branches down. May not be able to thread in advance but be alert. Bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains for our subforum Mon-Tue. Saw the drought monitor and you've seen subsequent discussion. I did review the 10 min video provided but not the hour long-yet.
  2. wdrag
    Als, ifs anyone is checking... 06z EPS vs GEFS starkly different on digging short wave trough Sun-Monday. Is the EPS far too amped? Think this may be worth keeping an eye on.
  3. wdrag
    Hi Matt, I appreciate your honesty! Therefore the thanks for your post. I am now a little more concerned about process. Seems to me this is human interpretation of objective data sets, of which I'm still unclear and can't find that listed in the drought monitor. I like objectivity supplemented with observed impact truths. River flows, reports from reservoirs, farmers, and evaporattion rates. I think there is a brand new graphic available somewhere on evapotranspiration. Any link? Also concerned about overall transparency but that ties with everything in life. Drought here in nw NJ seems to be relatively superficial... when considering acquire recharge. I'm Unskilled at this but not sure what this attached map suggests today. I think those on this forum very much appreciate your shares
  4. wdrag
    I could benefit from greater u understanding on what went into this lack of reclassifcation downward in NNJ. The yellow stripes e-w across NNJ? Did River flows influence, or local drought reports? Maybe someone can post the radar analysis or whatever went into the evaluation to support the drought monitor. This will help me curb my enthusiasm for expectation. Thank you.
  5. wdrag
    From early yesterday partially reiterated: No chatter yet on the impact of the block the rest of the month? While the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month. That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms. Not sure if anyone saw the ECMWF OP CF-squall line 45-60 MPH gusts, cycle to cycle since 06z/15, different target areas from NJ/e PA/srn NYS early Monday. Could be a few power outages/branches down. No thread for us but bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains. Latest 06z/16 EC cycle has the surface low driving the CF across the area predawn Monday then redeveloping the deepening sec low s of LI late Mon? Unsure whether this can happen. I'll be curious as to the drought outlook changes eastern NJ/se NYS/CT when it posts this morning.
  6. wdrag
    No chatter on the impact of the block the rest of the month? While the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month. That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms. I monitor ECAI my cyclic guide to what should happen as I find it particularly useful on yes/no. Not sure if anyone saw the CF-squall line gusts near 60 MPH vicinity Cape May Monday morning. Whether this occurs as attempted by the 05z EC OP 5-6 days in advance... it's a small possibility. No thread for us but bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains. I'll be curious as to the drought outlook changes eastern NJ/se NYS/CT when it posts tomorrow morning.
  7. wdrag
    I've seen references in news clipping from the NJ coast, 4th or 5th worst tidal level since 2000... that's pretty serious in the past 25 years.
  8. wdrag
    Hi... I'm not going into details since time and my age 75 have lost a little of the edge. From Northeast Snowstorms V2 Kocin and Uccellini. Dec 10-12 1992 was huge... heavy snow most of the interior higher northeast and New England. I was up in Marblehead MA. Powerful there. Mar 11-13 was the Eastern USA Superstorm Coast problems with most of the snow interior I95 westward. Also in Marblehead. The Newark Climate Data for Dec 1992 below describes what happened at Newark Airport... Inland colder and snowier. Coast winds, seas and tides were enormous Dec 10-12 while a snowstorm raged interior. Hope this helps
  9. wdrag
    ARI: Averate Return Interval. If anyone does analysis for October mdt coastal flooding events 5 day MODELED 2-3" rain and G40-60MPH, NON TROPICAL... let it rip. I've seen comparisons to tropical related or winter related. Nothing straight up. I'll check back late today. Thanks for your participation and while not worst case D5 outlooked scenario, and an imperfect nor'easter, most will have benefitted from outdoor cancellations and preparations as well as needed rain.
  10. wdrag
    0.37 at my station in Wantage of far nw NJ but the CoCoRaHs 3 day reports and NYS Mesonet show the extent of 1.5-3" that covered, in my estimation about 60-65% of our subforum area with amounts ranging from over 4" in Brick NJ to less than 0.4" parts of western NJ. Also added color coded amounts for the northeast USA, showing the focus of biggest amounts se MA-Cape Cod. Overall, sizable moderate impact, even where amounts less than 1" where intermittent power outages occurred (brief eddy transfer [Richardson #] taking down relative dead wood). Interior eddy downward momentum transfer likely due to fairly strong easterly flow at the top of the boundary layer--always difficult to predict where these spots will occur. If you wish, check back on the WPC 5 day outlook... added below. Actually a little shy up by I84-SNE and I do think this was a one or two year recurrence interval for parts of the coast. ESPECIALLY October NON-Tropical at neap tide. Others chime in with factual info. Please add on OKX and PHI summaries when they arrive. Thank you.
  11. wdrag
    I'm pretty much satisfied with outcomes of this storm... p1 if questions...includes WPC 5 day total. CoCoRaHs tomorrow sometime around 915-930. Still some power outages. Officially at least spotty 3 so far Stony Brook LI, and a fair mounts of 3+ Ocean and Monmouth counties in NJ with 3.6+ at Berkeley Heights.
  12. wdrag
    We'll await the official readings but at Sandy Hook... I think the max came in near 7.8 MLLW or on the cusp of minor-moderate CF threshold... statistically.
  13. wdrag
    8.92,at 1242pm ish is a 6 min spike of a foot and unrealistic. until NWS blesses it, I’d rely on the smooth tidal curve
  14. wdrag
    I don’t think so. Follow NWS. Thanks. Lost power for 75 min At 11. Catching up
  15. wdrag
    Tidal: am virtually certain moderate CF develops at Sandy Hook area midday... long duration of minor tidal inundation. Tides still running 3' above predicted at 940A. Should make about 8' MLLW there. Not sure what OKX has but follow what ever they have including the datums they select.
  16. wdrag
    I believe... it'll all get ironed out tomorrow morning OKX PNS and official climate site data inclusive of CoCoRaHs. Enjoy the nasty chilly day.
  17. wdrag
    NJ power outages 15,000+ and growing at 930A
  18. wdrag
    If this were winter...I'd say wait to crow until midnight tonight. MUCH more to come today. 1-2", iso heavier coasts and even interior will do ok. Convection developing per HRRR - might be quite a nasty afternoon parts of coasts. Am pretty sure some parts Li and eastern Nj will end up with 4". CoCoRaHs two day. .31 Wantage since 5P yesterday. Two day .4, heading for .6-1.0 three day totals by tomorrow morning. Click for more detail.
  19. wdrag
    Officially past 2 inches for the entire event Sat-now at Holmdell NJ, Queens and Stony Brook on LI. Suggests to me that iso 4 within the realm of possibility. Otherwise bigger amounts of at least 4" will probably be coastal RI out to Cape Cod.
  20. wdrag
    Isolated spots may be pick up an additional 2" between now and 8PM, along the coasts... IF convection emerges this afternoon as modeled by the HRRR. Looks like pretty good impact, travel wise per TV reports and what has been posted here this morning. Anticipate DELAYS and maybe some detours. Will post a summary report tomorrow morning around 9A, for CoCoRaHs 3 day totals but looking good. Wind driven rains this morning... intermittent in some spots.
  21. wdrag
    Added the most likely scenario for the afternoon high tide, SANDY HOOK representing the onshore packed in water. Rainfall runoff and backed up streams that empty into the Atlantic will exacerbate the flooding this afternoon. So far, no official storm reports that I can see from OKX.
  22. wdrag
    Visuals with power problems, even in nw NJ at 620AM Rides running 3' a move normal right now so a very good chance of moderate coastal flooding with the midday-afternoon high tide. Winds a little lower than expected on LI but the Fire MIN GUST tool from SPC HREF set the bottom line very well. So... here are some visuals on rainfall, power outages and airport gusts 46MPH or greater the past 3 hours ending around 6AM.
  23. wdrag
    Wrong. You asked. Think it’s moving west now in NNJ
  24. wdrag
    Cancelled Skylands Halloween Festival of Lights tonight... smart move. Think we may see iso 45 MPH early Monday. already has a few power outages in the county. Nothing major down the coast on power. Think the bigger PO will be up here LI and NJ coasts overnight.
  25. wdrag
    Sometimes the straight laced Drag has to laugh. Good one.
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