wdrag

In the meantime, I like how this coming week is shaping up for rainfall. Won't uprise if sct light showers develop Tue or Wed, and think WPC is too conservative by 1/2" on its total week 1 forecast (00z/30 cycle) for our NYC subforum. Am in the 1/2-2" bracket for starters between Thu-Sat. Have a day. Thanks Don for the Sep stats earlier this thread and Bluewave for the continuing updates on temp stats. The new monthly outlook by CPC.

Well reviewed. I can’t quibble. Main thing for favorable decent event is a southern short wave separation from northern Jet, eventually shoving northeast. That option is still there if it’s weak then not so good for rain. WPC starting to show rainfall D7 and CPC with new 6-10 D outlooks etc around 3-4p

at least you got your surprise .20 two nights ago... we've traced the past couple of afternoon-evenings. I didnt check CoCoRaHs and the Mesonet climate sites but am sure there were some meager amounts. Grandsitting another day or two.

Updated 654A/28: I am seeing a probable approximate 1/2-2" rain event or periodic rains between Tue and Sat of next week. 00z/28 Ensembles coming into agreement with fairly substantial high amplitude troughing near and west of 80W longitude the middle of next week. Who gets 2 and who gets relatively meager 1/2" far too early but finally in my viewer assembling, a more widespread event appears on the distant ensemble horizon. The 2" reference is not necessarily the high end.

fwiw...5H pattern is looking interesting for me here as of the 06z/27 ensembles. my interest is west of I95 where it's been pretty darn dry since the 22nd. Am I seeing opportunity for for 1/2-2" of rain in nw NJ next week beginning periodically Monday night Sept 1?

Sept thread started... this above added to Sept.

Am not using GEFS predictors etc beyond 2 weeks and messing up the anticipation mid month onward, like the August 2025 post. Instead I've added the 6-10 day issued yesterday, as well as the page you can go to look at CPC's daily updates of 6-10, 8-14 day, the weekly Friday updates of the 2-3 week and twice monthly updates of the monthly outlook, as well as other occasionally helpful predictors, based on the still nascent developing long ranging science beyond 2 weeks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

If all goes well I'll get Sept thread started by 8PM. fwiw...5H pattern is looking interesting for me here, west of I95 where it's been pretty darn dry since the 22nd. Am I seeing opportunity for for 1/2-2" of rain in nw NJ next week beginning periodically Monday night?

fwiw on Erin along he NJ coast per PHI PNS yesterday... I added this in, cause I didnt see it posted. If I erred, I apologize. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 703 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...Sussex County... Dewey Beach 46 MPH 1136 AM 08/21 WXFLOW Lewes NOS 43 MPH 1136 AM 08/21 NOS-NWLON Lewes 43 MPH 1142 AM 08/21 WXFLOW Rehoboth Beach 42 MPH 1134 AM 08/21 AWS Rehoboth Beach 42 MPH 1205 PM 08/21 DAVIS Indian River Bay Dewey Beach 41 MPH 1145 AM 08/21 DEOS2 Georgetown 40 MPH 1105 AM 08/21 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Atlantic County... Atlantic City 46 MPH 0230 PM 08/21 NJWXNET BRIGANTINE 41 MPH 0444 PM 08/21 CWOP 1 NE Brigantine 41 MPH 0449 PM 08/21 Public ...Cape May County... Cape May 44 MPH 1235 PM 08/21 DAVIS 1 NW Wildwood 42 MPH 1239 PM 08/21 Public Ocean City 41 MPH 1115 AM 08/21 CWOP Ocean City 41 MPH 1157 AM 08/21 WXFLOW ...Monmouth County... Keyport 48 MPH 0524 AM 08/21 CWOP ...Ocean County... Surf City 49 MPH 0245 PM 08/21 Public 2 S Island Beach State Park 48 MPH 1014 AM 08/21 Public Rutgers 45 MPH 0323 PM 08/21 WXFLOW Tuckerton 44 MPH 0149 PM 08/21 WXFLOW Seaside Heights 43 MPH 0817 AM 08/21 WXFLOW Harvey Cedars 43 MPH 0235 PM 08/21 NJWXNET South Seaside Park 40 MPH 0817 AM 08/21 CWOP Holgate 40 MPH 1019 AM 08/21 Public Beach Haven 40 MPH 1021 AM 08/21 CWOP Trixies 40 MPH 1137 AM 08/21 WXFLOW ...Delaware... ...Maritime Stations... 19 E Fenwick Island 45 MPH 0229 PM 08/21 Buoy 1 ENE Lewes 42 MPH 1136 AM 08/21 Buoy ...New Jersey... 9 WNW Cape May Point 45 MPH 1048 AM 08/21 Buoy 1 NNE Brigantine 44 MPH 0259 PM 08/21 Public Sea Bright 43 MPH 0409 AM 08/21 Public &&

Kind of embarrassing for the GEFS/CMCE early Monday morning guidance that was relied upon for the WPC dry product for Wednesday 8/21. Our p45 815AM post had it all documented, with the EPS suite clearly indicating something along the lines of what happened. It's not always EPS/EC superior to the GFS suite but I am getting disappointed. Had this been winter, I think the forum would have been lit with posts. As it was, this snuck by... possibly most not caring, despite science allowing for consideration. No doubt the was a meaningful rain for all of us, alleviating some of the recent summer dryness. The rainfall accumulation graphics attached demonstrate. Also, while not a clear cut PRE, this qpf event was well in advance of Erin-an indirect influence on what happened here as you well know from watching radar. The PRE composite was helpful for me as meteorologist, attempting to gauge what might happen in our NYC subforum. MESOSCALE excesses: DID happen in se NYS and se CT, per attached NYC FFW, attached digital rainfall output which showed the 5" max, AND, weather underground two day report of 4.89" near Boutonville NYS (Old Post Rd) via station KNYSOUTH137. I did not check many stations there but you can get the drift. I have to clear some attachments so the attachments will complete at 915A and the attached at 915AM may not be in correct order, but if you're interested check all of this information presented. My house in Wantage NJ only 1.04 11A/20-6A/21.

Not threading but will be interesting this afternoon-tonight. from my view of multi modeling...one axis of potential excessive is near I90 to ne CT-RI, and a secondary axis from Monmouth-Ocean Counties to e LI. Whether out NYC subforum sees isolated 2-5", I'm unsure so no thread. Will post the 24 hour amounts via CoCoRaHs around 845A Thursday.

Follow NWS-NHC. Will hold off thread due to uncertainty locating 5"+ bands but I think we're looking at some surprise heavy amounts (2-5") late Wed-early Thu but where. Will rereview this evening and again tomorrow morning for a more a confident expression of bands Erin indirect but I think related heavy rain. For now the ensembles are generalized-spread out. EC/EPS/ECAI have been onto this for quite a few cycles. Here's some graphics: EPS 12z/19 prob of 1"+ 24 hr amount by Thu AM. I think its within these magenta 50% prob that iso 5+ will occur. For now it's a marginal risk from WPC on FF rain. SPC HREF has iso 5-7"+ MAX POTENTIAL rain in the tan areas including coastal NJ 12z EC OP has been slipping swd with the max axis rainfall but it's very close to our area off of s LI to coastal NJ...see the graphic. Finally, how about the EPS Max 6hr G ending 2A Friday showing TS gusts in our ocean waters, even possibly grazing the NJ shore. This is as far northwest as I've seen on the EPS which creeps our way... follow NHC/NWS. All other modeling is seaward and not as threatening. Follow NHC assessment-thank you. So there 18z NAM12K/NAM 3K like GEFS-CMCE... I90 NYS-MA Not a confidence booster for locating near 5" axis as seen on the 18z NAM3K. No thread yet. Rechecking tonight and Wed AM. 432P/

No thread until 230PM: PRE seems in play but best axis for 2-4" rain, isolated 5" is unknown though may be favoring LI or NJ. Just too soon. It's banded so some folks only 1/4" and others rejoice in 2+. 12z/19 guidance may be helpful. Timing of wetting event (positive impact imo for many in recent drought) is Noon Wed-Noon Thu. While impacts positive for needed rain, I think there will be fairly high negative impact Wed even-Thu AM commutes in and out of NYC. Second part of a potential thread is the unknown, whether TS gusts will reach s LI and Nj coasts (gusts 40-50 MPH) later Thu. Possibility of moderate coastal flooding, mainly NJ coast Thu eve. Rip currents and high surf are a given.

May issue a thread tomorrow morning for general 1/2-2" drought relieving rain event 10Z Wed-10z Thu, isolated 5". Too early, especially since 18z WPC less than 0.1" this week NYC subforum as too the 13z BOM. Meanwhile 12z EPS/EPS AI increasing since 00z cycles. 12z NAM had the idea of iso 3+. Again way too early for me but either physics is out to lunch or something else is wrong with my thinking. PRE conceptual sampler added. Just shift the modeling a bit too the east. Everything now within the 42-84 time hr frame.

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring. I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread. Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum. Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF.

Testing modeling: WPC seems strongly attached to the much drier GEFS/EPS per no qpf in our subform, this week as per attached 5 day qpf issued around Mon 8/18 10z. Please follow NWS/WPC/NHC. I'll continue to monitor for my own interest on whether the more benign GEFS prevails over the more vigorous EPS in our NYC subforum. This post continues from Saturday 410PM and prior posts last week and will be a lesson for me regarding EPS and EPS AI. IF the GEFS is to prevail, EPS and EPS AI will have to dry out soon. EPS suite is as yet the most intriguing for 1-2" 12 hour general rainfall sometime between 8/19-21 for NJ/CT/NYS/PA, in part due to nw flow UL short wave with associated RRQ UL jet in the Maritimes and some relatively shallow low level ese moisture inflow related to the position of the H near Nova Scotia and the L near Lake Erie, connecting a bit with ERIN? EPS PW steady since the past Saturday near 1.5" for 12z Wed at 40N. Lots of fairly deep vorticity NYS into the mid Atlantic states along the boundary this week into Thu AM. Atlantic Recurvature PRE composite has had my attention since late last week. ODDS for recent drought easing rainfall per multi modeling are very low. Yet, continues my attention on ultimate results for Tue-Wed-Thu AM this week. Just to see how erroneous the EC AI can be. Added WPC 5 day, the 06z ECAI and its 06z ensemble as well as the 00z/18 EPS AI 24 hour prob for 1" (very low prob except I90 in NYS). EC EPS is less vigorous than the EC AI suite.

Follow NWS/WPC/NHC. I'll monitor for my own interest on whether the more benign GEFS prevails over the more vigorous EPS in our NYC subforum. 12z/16 EPS nw of envelope of remaining global solutions for ERIN. Glad I'm not fishing Atlantic waters Monday-Friday. EPS is as yet the most intriguing for 1-2" 12 hour general rainfall sometime between 8/19-21 for NJ/CT/NYS/PA, in part due to nw flow UL short wave with associated RRQ UL jet in the Maritimes and some relatively shallow low level ese moisture inflow related to the position of the H near Nova Scotia and the L near Lake Erie, connecting a bit with ERIN? EPS PW near 1.5 and increased over the past 24 hrs of EPS cycles for 12z Wed. Lots of fairly deep vorticity NYS into the mid Atlantic states along the boundary next week into Thu AM. 12z/16 EPS gusts much more significant our Atlantic waters vs more seaward GEFS and CMCE. Continues my attention on ultimate results for Tue-Wed-Thu AM next week. WPC at 1841z has added marginal risk for excessive D4 and 5. This line added at 2013z.

fwiw, am monitoring the middle of next week (8/19-21). Interacting northern stream short wave in the northeast USA with the ever so slightly imo (as of 06z/14 ensembles) westward drift track of Erin, low level moisture and RRQ of the UL jet near the Maritimes. Too early to be sure if its a player in a significant 12 hr rain event NYS/PA or the NYC subforum. Uncertainty is large 7-8 days in advance but some modeling has my attention, especially in parts of this area which have drying out in August. Will probably dismiss interest in a couple of days once the modeling says no-go.

Bluewave post from 5-6 days in the morning on EPS pattern and beautiful weather was right. EPS again, I'm afraid. Erin or Fernand looks next up... from the guidance I see a recurve but maybe close enough to help reduce our Aug rainfall deficit.

Modeling issues: Sort of a bust for our no rain last night... ONLY the EPS got it right 24 hours in advance (00z/6 cycle). In the longer range it looked bigger up through NJ/PA (my post on OH Valley low aloft) but GEFS was dry and so many forecasters opted for 20% or less chance yesterday, instead placing the 20% for today. Then as we drew closer to yesterday, all the modeling tended to shrink southward and I gave in to the dry GEFS (my mistake), but alas the EPS still held onto a little, which is what we got up through about 40-41N latitude. See attached graphic. Ohio Valley had isolated 4-5" in w Central Indiana/e Central IL, with some 2"s just e of Cincinnati on the 4th-5th respectively. Then last night we got our minor amounts, mostly evening on previously dismissed chances. I would say pretty deficient modeling for the northern fringe of the ne moving rain areas. CoCoRaHs attached for yesterday here and IN/IL for the 4th.

Showers developing?

Sea breeze boundary w LI. Showers now at 250 pm

I was wrong relying on EPS for the OH Valley potential rainfall here. GEFS looks far superior for late this week, well in advance. My wrong. Now I worry about flash drought here in the Tri state, especially if we dont get late day convection. Wind ix not large but long days, high evapotranspiration and no rain are a concern imo, for. drought ion we cant get some decent rainfall in the next week or two.

LOTS of easterly flow in that EPS image... moisture.

Verification comments added to the initial post for July... actually imo, decently outlooked.