wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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On the 7th I'll toss up a CF6 for the first 7 days at KEWR.... whose data seems hot to some of us but likely is not per NWS tolerances for ASOS Data. Whether we can muster 90 this Thu or Fri is doubtful to me (17C 850) and smoke aloft which I suspect is knocking off a deg or 2 on daytime max. Looking ahead 13th-20th first day of summer... I'm taking a stab here but unless compromised by sea breezes or midday showers, looks to me like a pretty long stretch of a above normal temps as Both the EPS and GEFS are developing a significant ridge somewhere between 80 and 95W...Ie Great Lakes-Upper Midwest. That should mean warming here with possible cool frontal passages, but also possible shots at 90F for at least the interior. Have a day
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0.08 last night 8P-midnight in Wantage NJ. No clear cut aurora at 3A today on camera.
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YES Aurora possible, imo best time to view if we get it 11P-430A when skies hopefully clear an smoke drifts to the east. As others noted camera picks up what the eye wont.
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Yes I see that... I'll recheck their numbers at 6PM when the new issuance arrives. AND... hoping middle deck WAA clouds ahead of a weak boundary does not complicate things after 9PM. Better chance of clear skies south and west of us.
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Thanks for the alert. KP values very good but not sure if we can see it down here after sunset. Please see attached.
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New product from NWS... I like it. No hover output-unfortuntely, but probabilistically a 30-40% chance of a Max HI 95+ on Thursday interior NJ.
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12z/31 Guidance including ensembles continues 80s inland Tue-Fri, possibly weekend, with 90 possible Thu-Fri...even NYC??? AC will be needed parts of the inland areas Thu-Fri afternoon. So far, below June heat advisory guidance (I think still lower threshold in May-June than JAS) this coming Thu-Fri.
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Davis seems top of the line for us enthusiasts
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My final in Wantage for the 11 hour rain event 2.03 ending 11A. Fits NJ climate data as well as NYS Mesonet.By the way that is .23 LESS than the automated AWN... tips too much in heavy rain.
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Maybe not in the country but different in the city... less relief! I think departures are important, be it night or day. We need to continue reviewing.
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Will be interested in knowing statistically what summer (JJA) month will see the greatest departure from normal. I saw Don's post on +1 summer. Not sure this is substantial but one of these months might show up larger departure.
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TROPICAL: Personal opinion is to follow the Tropical portion of AM WX... just too early to get excited. I dont see any clear GEFS/EPS signal for an event GMEX-FL coast yet.
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My remote AWN in Wantage NJ has 1.85 since midnight,, probably a bit less but close. Added NJ and NYS mesonet climate network maps past 12 hours. Representative. Click for clarity if interested.
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And the D 6-10, 8-14, Week 3-4 as issued yesterday May 30 for June, and the June outlook issued May 15 which I think gets updated in the next day or two.
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Presuming I get time, I'll add CPC June Outlook and the D8-14, week 3-4 guidance around 7-8P.
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Continuing with expectations as described above posts. GEFS continues more aggressive with the warming than the EPS.
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So the interior daily 80s delays a couple days into the first week of June but by June 3-4 they should be going and some of the modeling implies spotty 90 interior possible Friday-6th-at least Sunday 8th. AC will be working a bit for the interior by next weekend. 00z/28 GEFS is more aggressive with the warming so we'll monitor.
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Might be a little early with this monthly... but I like the pattern for summer warmth (daily 80s at least inland the first week of June). 5H Weakness in our area suggests cool frontal passages and a chance for frontal showers/tstorms so drought hopefully doesn't return in June. GEFS from 00z/23 through June 25 suggests ridge centered NMex/TEX with zonal flow N USA and maybe periodic chance at 90F with a strong TStorm near CFP? Long ranging is difficult for ensembles. Others may want to add EC suite etc outlooks for June. Monthly trend is warmer than the 30 year average so I dont see a reason deviate. Don? Other's?
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3 day totals via CoCoRaHs reports which looks good including NYS Mesonet and my Wanted 1.25. Drought over for the time being, as per last Tuesday's report and this attached data that goes into the 5/27 report publicly available 5/29. EC suite was overdone for this period, no doubt...both wind and rain. Looks to me like milder this coming weeks 70s morphs into summer June 1, more or less on schedule with at least 80s almost daily the first week of June, excepting coastal sea breezes. CoCoRaHs 3 days attached-click for clarity.
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No change in considerations for Wed afternoon-Thu night 2" g 50 part of LI and s CT. No thread as of today, per prior consideration of low stream flows and higher FFG, excepting parts of central and nw NJ. Am pretty of a gale as we're now 48-60 hours in advance for the LI shores. Regarding verification... it's how thorough we look and what we dismiss as poor siting etc. When you're out there gusting 35 knots... it becomes a significant threat to to general non-mariner. We'll see how OKX responds tomorrow regarding possible hazards.
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Wed-Thu: Looks somewhat interesting as GEFS seems to have cluster of closed 5H low near e LI. 50MPH wind gusts and 2" rain possible LI area, esp Thursday. We'll see. No thread since some ensembles are weaker and recent dryness has low flows there and high FFG, except nw NJ which may be vulnerable??? Check again tomorrow.
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Keping an eye on next Wed-Thu for a thread but only if LI s CT widespread 50+ and Rfall 2". Unlikely thread at this time but has been looking interesting for several days. Follow local resources and WPC.
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already heavy showers N of I80 this morning in far NNJ with the 1/3rd inch via NJ Climate on target.
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After they feast on the leaves fort a while, they tend to die off, if not sprayed-controlled-killed. The oaks will have a second leafing in late June and attempt to recover. This is our second year in a row. So far minor but noticeable. Can't hear them eating the leaves yet when you walk the street kr see the brown caterpillar poop on th street. Hope it doesn't get too bad. State is spraying certain sections of Wantage NJ
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Wantage: this part... about 1/4" past hour ...am loving the catch up here. NJ Climate obs look good. Gypsy moths starting here in this part of Sussex County extreme nw NJ again. Second year running. Not prolific yet but for me, time to DUCK TAPE band the oaks. Have a good rest of the day.
