wdrag

CMCE-EPS 12z ensembles make the 12z op's look pretty inaccurate. They are further south with snow-- and probably a little flatter than the 00z-06z/25. I haven't looked in detail but those of us who have pivotal can do a 06z-12z compare on snow depth change and prob for 1" and draw your own conclusions. My guess is the 00z/26 GGGEM (Canadian) will be colder and snowier sooner and the 12z EC OP throwing a narrow swath of 6+ in the hills of nwNJ into se NYS looked suspicious along with the early quit. Either solution is part of a myriad of outcomes and suggest using a smoother ensemble approach. The model message (I think): discontinuous - disorganized indicators, possibly related to the upper air structure. I can't conclude what that will look like but uncertainty prevails on snowfall and imo need to wait some more. Back tonight or tomorrow morning.

WPC take on 1/4" ice/snow water equiv. Dark green is the primary threat region. 12z Canadian moving north for one cycle and hopefully slips back south but now it's a GEFS/EPS consistency split on probs. Canadian move is not what I wanted to see. LI best chc wet sloppy snow 12-18z Monday with comma head enhancement rolling eswd through LI and probably lots of pavement melting=wet roads. Question on timing most of the snow I84 should be Sunday night-Monday morning.

Snuck in for a moment... I even think Feb 4-8 something sizable AVL-BOS. Temps as usual this winter marginal but something I think is going to have emerge from the south up the coast.

NYC-LI..please take what you can get out of this. The Feb thread was started...where there may be a little more hope (kick the can?). Primary big snow is favored north-northwest fringe of the subforum. Something to track and see how it evolves. NYC still in the mix for 1/2-2" tail end back side--slushy.

Power outage problems may develop in the red colored area of the attached 4+" chance. Note those chances are higher than what we posted yesterday. Not all modeling agrees with this but think it wise to plan for this but all models are increasingly concerned since 24 hours ago. Banding possible up in the I84 corridor... Agreed snow ratios. NYC-LI...not threaded more than 1/2-2" (slop) Offline til tonight or Fri AM. Try to keep NYC in some sort of snow mix the last 25% of the storm.

February thread started.

Added the 1/18 CPC FEBRUARY outlook and the new CPC week 3-4 issued 1/26. Both posted here on 1/26 748PM. While the anomalies are warmer than normal the first two weeks of February, it might not mean absurdly warm preventing snow in NYC. The warmer than normal anomalies seem to be more centered up in Canada, modifying the potential for true arctic intrusions down here. Guidance suggests the potential for several east coast storms In February and the possibility of snows from Asheville to Boston - I95 westward. That may be climo combined with the El Nino pattern of potentially above normal precip southern USA and up the east coast to NYC. So, can the NYC CP Feb snow total exceed our January total? Temperatures may chill down a bit in mid February? Will add on here Friday evening the 26th with the new 1/26 CPC guidance. May also add Don's stats if he has any for this pattern for Feb. Thank you all. And now the CPC Jan 31 update for Feb. Looks a little higher prob of not so much qpf, and chilled New England a bit. On March 2 attached the Feb verification. Looks like our local take verified OK with the mid month chilling, and twice the Jan paltry snow total at CP. and the CPC trend to below normal qpf also worked out with east coast events trailing off the coast south of our area.

Agree. Probably not good to buy in, instead disorganized lesser approach that I’d WOC D5 winter wx which has 30-49% chc 3+ only hills I 80 north. I can’t post it as am remote. I may not be back til tomorrow morning. It’s early to buy big. Keep it minimal unless stats suggest otherwise

Ensembles smooth out the drama. We want the ensembles to keep us in the mix as we get closer to Sunday

The thread was started at 930 AM and comments about Sunday should go into that thread. That’s what it’s for. Thanks. Am on the road

A short wave currently dropping sewd from the Pacific Northwest dives down into the Four Corners region Friday then lifts out into mid Atlantic states Sunday. Five day in advance graphics are posted including the EPS which has been steadiest and slipping slightly south as we draw closer to the weekend. Please read the labels. Most are 24 hours that end Sunday night...the EPS the fastest. The three global models for chance of 1" or more are attached, the EPS for 4+ which has been the highest and most cohesive for the past couple of days and I added the EPS 850MB wind field to show nose of the jet potential enhancement of precipitation Sunday night. Mild air in advance of the system will probably mean rain or melting of the wet snow at the start early Sunday, but by Sunday night, it should be cold enough for even untreated pavement accumulations down to I78, of course dependent on snow occurring. A period of ice is possible in the anticipated interior transition to snow--especially hills. Cold air flowing southward Monday on gusty winds will probably mean freezing up of whatever slush and possible early Monday delays. Uncertainties prevail - including track-flattening-weaker-stronger etc, but think this is worthy of monitoring for a minor-low impact event NYC and a potential light-moderate snow event for the interior from eastern PA across NNJ se NYS CT. 933 AM Saturday 1/27/24: Changed title to smooth out dates, add OBS, and delay ending of seeing snow til at least midday Monday. Comments on these changes on the last page (p6) to this moment.

Thank you. Moving forward now... I will thread Sunday-Sunday night sometime this evening around 9PM (grandkids). Increasing chances of 1/2-2" NYC-LI and for about 4+ nw NJ-I84 corridor. Not major but 850 low and increasing ne 850 MB Jet by 06z/Monday makes this a favorable outcome. Jut want a look at 12z ENS... no doubt in my mind at least a bit of snow coming to NYC and shovel able WET snow nw NJ-CT with initial melting but surface CAA makes this a candidate for deteriorating untreated pavement conditions Sunday evening -night.

Monitoring Sunday 1/28: EPS is the most organized and consistent. It's axis has slipped a little to the south, painting this as an elevations based wet snow of 4+" potential along I84. EPS confidence is 30-45%. However, think we have a small less than 1" accum down to I95 with refreeze of slush Monday morning. NYC prob for 1" is still very low, so no thread but monitoring trends the next day or so. Attached EPS prob for 1" Sunday. It says be cautious about thinking 1" NYC CP. By the way: there was a little sleet mixed with the rain last night in the NYC-LI area.

Sunday EPS chance of 1" and 4" wet snow, elevations heaviest. Gets pretty cold Monday morning and slush freezes. Confidence on 4+ by the models is not high

Wantage NJ rain-sleet-snow mix. back deck trying to get slick at 32.5F.

No thread yet on what I think is a probable late Sat-Monday morning rain end as a bit of ice or snow NYC Sunday night or Monday. So far insignificant for LI most of NJ (less than 1/2" snow) but it's in play for ice or snow hazards I84 corridor which for me is the Poconos, nw NJ (Sussex County) through interior se NYS on up to MA. 00z/23 EPS has heaviest snow and ice north of I90 while GEFS-CMCE a little closer to I84 and all steady or increasing amounts. If it continues on this course I wont thread. if it slips closer to NYC, I will, but confidence yet on anything significant NYC-LI is well below average. Still worthy of monitoring, If the short term situation eventually involves ice LI, will add a thread, otherwise no threads from myself for now.

Periodic sleet-freezing rain-snow through Wednesday morning with delays in the hill towns due to at home conditions but main treated roads wet. Then, a light to moderate period of ice-snow potential exists 11PM Saturday - 11AM Monday with rain changing to ice and eventually a little snow. This is probably a more significant event upcoming for I84 than whatever happens the next 24 hours. Potential for totals of 4 inches of snow between now and next Monday morning and one tenth inch of glaze.

As an fyi: 12z/22 EPS has temporarily increased snow depth change to the nw of the subforum and WPC responded with a very low prob of 3+ in the mountains or it could be quarter inch ice-snow water equiv which I think seeps into the I84 area. Door is still open for a minor tail end snow NYC Sun night or Monday with pretty decent CAA Monday following the event, whatever it is. No thread but the GFS has had this from time to time the past 2-3 days and the uncertainty is very large with preceding warmth. In the meantime... minor small stream flood potential exists Friday-weekend in NJ/PA.

Posting the CNN displayed winter snowfall departures expected in moderate-strong El Niño as in their article on 12/2/23, and per my request to NOHRSC they generated the departure map to date (from only a 15 year NPOHRSC climo) ... and I added the season to date mapped total.

No threads until at least 730PM. Ice fishing now. Ice continues a risk to within 10 miles of the NYC urban center. Tue-early Wed. 28-31 continues minor snow on the table NYC, bigger ninalnd from I95. No thread til ensembles are better agreement and CMC has to be on board.

A thread for ice tomorrow morning will only post if NYC or LI is involved, since I know icing is not of much interest to the forum. It is coming tomorrow morning as attached in chances. No thread for what I think is a probable coastal storm next Sunday-Monday but could be too warm I95 east so staying put with no thread for 1/28-29

Am expecting advisories for icing to be issued this afternoon for tomorrow morning in this nw-ne suburbs.

Yes... objectively, how does the big flooding rain making Gulf States trough open up? Flat east or somewhat as modeled (possibly delayed a little more?) and then how does the impinging northern stream short wave forcing on the flow across New England? Lots of options but I would not say snowstorm, nor would I say not a snowstorm somewhere between Charlottesville VA and ALB. Best approach for me (no thread atom due a vast amount of uncertainties) is to keep an eye one the 5H ejection from the Gulf States in future cycles and hope that it makes it up to the Ohio River and the Mason Dixon line Monday. I dont know what happens except that this 1/28-31 period has been on some of the modeling mind for a few days. It could be another snow hole here? Just dont know but I can't be dismissive about possibilities. I think the door is open a little bit. One other thing... I want this closed low intact if it comes out through NJ-DE. If it loses a lot of its indentity, is will look weaker and zip away. For nw, there is no sign of the 500 intensifying as whatever transfer off the mid Atlantic coast, so it wont be a forever event.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could wake up to the 192 hr EC op. Probably not cause we dont know how the closed low in the lower Miss Valley comes out or goes back to the desert sw, especially with another short wave diving se in the Northern stream toward the upper midwest. Complicated. Dont bet on anything - at least not me except options for a little snow are still on the table per the 12z GEFS ensemble and 00z/21 EC ensemble.

January 23, 2024. Thought you might want to review upcoming guidance for Tuesday. Everything posted at about 7AM in NW-NE suburbs looks pretty much in line with our new daytime modeling (12z/21 HRRR, RGEM and NAM). Think its going to get slippery pretty quick on Tuesday I84 corridor, especially afternoon-evening. Lets see if modeling holds onto the ONSET speed of sleet to snow during the daylight hours Tuesday. This may be threaded late today or tomorrow morning as it looks pretty good to get down to I80--- not quite 100% yet on I80 but am 70% sure which would include some of the NYC suburbs and northern LI. Thread pending updated 12z/21 and 18z ensemble guidance and 18z/21 NAM/RDPS 2m temp and dewpoint trends for 12z Wed. It's a fine line along I80 and the normal warmer RDPS is colder than the NAM but trending warmer slightly so dont want to waste your time on thread that doesn't affect nearest 10miles nw-n-ne of CP. If it's nice... main treated roads wet for sure but I could see a few delays in the nw suburbs even east of I287. Don's post above supports what is written here.