wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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Your call group: I dont see much to excited about Valentines Day onward, at least not yet... so if we didnt have these two events this week, I'd probably have started a thread this morning (Potential Winter Storm Tue 11th-Thu 13th). My question to you: It looms large but as we know lots can wrong... I can go ahead and start a new thread later today when I get home or wait til 4PM Thursday the 6th. Your call--the idea is for the benefit of the forum. IF the response is a general no, then continue in the Feb thread for another two days. Thanks in advance for your feedback... forum benefit.
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NWS Day 5 probs are increasing for advisory-possible warning amounts of snow-ice. Use the legend.
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NWS snow forecast through Thu. Light blue is less than 1", then gradations of blue 1, 2" Looks a little conservative north of I80 but could be right if sleet mixes in within 3 hours of the start.
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Good morning: I know the middle of next week looks impressive but am a little concerned about the track slipping. south. No thread for the 12th-13th yet... trying to main focus on these next two events- Those first two threads intact though I may adjust timing slightly slower arrival-departure on the 5th-6th but no change on that till this evening, if then. There definitely will be a pr ceding narrow snow streak across s PA-n MD-DE-S NJ Wed and not sure if you looked at WSSI-P and NWS ensemble chance of 1/4" glaze... but the major icing impact looks to be central PA mountains to the nw suburbs of DC-Baltimore-Philly, whereas we get a little more snow on the front end up here. Also...note that qpf for the 5th-6th is not all that large when we get north of I80. I'll check back late today... keep these winter events on track.
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Nothing done yet... this is maybe where catch our breath and or do a reality check tomorrow, along with NWS discussions and views on what is or should be coming. It's highly unusual for us to see a train of disturbances light up the storm track in more or less the same general area for 3 weeks. I dont want us to have to punt down the line. Hoping we can get some of this accumulation done by Sunday night.
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so do I hope it holds. In the meantime, you may have noticed a WSA already posted parts of western PA and WVA mountains. My guess trimming the usually overdone ZR amount in the EPS, spotty 1/4" glaze thickness likely in each storm. At least spotty power problems central PA, possibly into the Poconos. Not yet a done deal but glad a watch is already out. Think you'll see more watches post sometime tomorrow and then the associated bordering advisories by 4A Wednesday. I'll be making note of snowfall from 2/5-28 at CP and nw NJ and see if the ensembles were at least half right. Finally...multiple models including the globals starting to pick up on the mesoscale banding feature in PA Wednesday. That one could be a narrow band of 1-3" slippery daylight snowfall vcnty CXY-PHL or CXY-ILG or could it shift a bit north to KTTN? Pretty sure something happens 12 hr in advance of the primary 9 hour pcpn event down in se PA southern NJ.
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The 00z/3 EPS has above normal snowfall here every week in Feb except the projected very cold one 2/18-24. I've never seen this... probably part of why CPC has us outlooked 2/11-15 I hope something doesn't botch this... rather robust above normal snow signal.
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Its isentropic lift (banding) with a decent shot of snow before it weakens when the steering flow changes from wnw aloft to wsw and then the band reforms during Wed night advancing through NJ. MUCH of our NYC qpf will occur within a 6-9 hr window, I think. That could mean a decent 2-3 hour front end thump???? A banding sample attached.
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Mostly gone for 1" or less, except shade and concrete. Where 1.5" or more, more snow is left tihs evening under shaded areas.
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OK... just checked to see if this was posted. IF so, my apology for the repeat hope. CPC hazards issued this afternoon. EPS CMCE snow dropped slightly today's 12z cycle but that can waffle and was within the noise fluctuation. We'll see how the next several days go. No thread from me beyond the 9th, until we see how the 6th goes... possibly issue immediately after 18z/6 IFFFFF we're still in the game 12th onward. Can't add to anymore confusion. You all are handling it perfect, prior to the5th and after the 9th here.
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NAO was right... I underestimated rapid snow loss today. Snow (1" to start at 6AM) still on concrete and shaded area. Where more than 1.5" not all was lost today. Wantage NJ 740' MSL max Temp was 42.
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Thats perfect. I’ve not looked at guidance ce but checking in and I have no intent or even a thought of anything. Beyond this weekend. Let’s see if these next two can produce a grand total oF2-4”. NYC Take what we can get
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Yes, I keep the door open for changes within the broad pix. And yes, I look at snow/ice probably more from a hazard view than actual perfect numbers - I ball park numbers. Too much stuff can wrong on numbers (just like the CP change this morning at 631). I'm guessing 1//2 to 3" heaviest case for NYC CP Wed night. Am offline til a short time on this eve, then back full bore tomorrow morning.
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Perfect timing on the new pins RJAY and unpinning the now self assessed closure of Jan 31-Feb 2. At least we got an inch LI n shore and NYC (which I could see on the Tunnel approach traffic cams) For those interested in combined snowfall via the NWS BOM only through the 10th... (beyond the 10th has NYC up to 6+ by the 13th. Lets start with the next two events, whatever they are...right now the NWS BOM has the attached.
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Summary assessment last night and the 3 day snowfall... maps of overnight qpf, the snowfall last night and the 3 day total. If interested click for clarity. You can see the max snowfall axis was displaced quite a bit further north than exampled on 1/26 start. I rate this as a C- ensemble performance not an F. Check the 1/26 guidance. Not what I like to see but what it is/was and we didnt overpromise NYC as stated on 1/26. Words matter as do pix. The sudden acceleration of the whole complex event scenario a day after initiating the thread was my largest surprise.
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Following up further... I did mean snowmelt TOMORROW afternoon. No mixing today, Lots of clouds and maybe an inversion. I didnt check ACARS aircraft sounding this morning but temps will struggle to rise unless full sunshine. Yes, we'll melt this afternoon-especially LI and s of I80 in NJ-PA but I think tomorrow is the better day for melting 80 to 100 percent of what fell last night then we refresh a bit Wednesday night.
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CP was changed on their 631AM previous daily climo... deserves an explanation since the 130A ob 0.5. We'll take the 1 and in answer to a question...season 6.8
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I've left the timing as is. Once it becomes clear that there wont be a streak of snow into NJ/ PA before 5PM Wednesday, I'll adjust the headline timing. That probably wont happen til til late Tuesday at the earliest.
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The thread is started... I played it conservative and I hope that can work for everyone. Even TV is talking about it. I do think we need to be conservative on these threads in advance...play the ballpark but not get too hyped. As I see it, both the next two coming events are relatively minor to possibly moderate impact but they will have impact on travel and be some fun for the forum. Banding could enhance in a stripe but overall 1/4-3/4" qpf wintry events are not heavyweights, still they are fun for the snow lover and especially the snow starved NYC-LI group. If you want to check impact of last evenings basic 1" event I80 axis and 2-3" se NYS-CT...look at the school delays for an event that ended basically at midnight. I tend to focus on the hazard. You can check all the ensembles through 2/18 positive snow depth change... a conservative ensemble. Pretty impressive. As dry as it was in January... I think we're northern fringing a wetter normal than month. I dont use Kuchera or 10 to 1 straight up on thread starts unless its short term. The most recent thread just ended was not a completely failure... though it was terrible missing that 36 hour+ period of dry weather between ice interior front end Friday morning and then last night's snow... and of course the northward shift of last Friday's ensembled snow. The back part worked out better than the front.
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This coming weekend Feb 8-9 NORTHEAST USA near and west of I95 through the 184 corridor: Another mixed wintry event with delays and cancellations likely, especially later Saturday into Sunday morning. Timing might be in error as we're 5 days in advance. QPF is ensembled similarly to the 2/5-6 event, somewhere between 1/4-3/4". For now the attached ensembles favor I84 corridor down to the interior of I95 with more risk of rain and melting NYC-LI. The presented ensembles can be in significant max latitude (n/s) axis error 5-6 days in advance of the occurrence. It is a trackable event, in what looks like a train of events for February...some of which can veer off and disappoint but we're at least in the wintry mix game. Ensembles include the midnight 2/3 WPC D6 outlook confidence of >1/4" melted water equivalent snow sleet. (blue is greater than 50%, pretty good for D6. Other ensembles 24 hr snowfall (10 to 1 ratio), an ensemble that only shows positive snow depth change, and an ensemble probability of >0.10 qpf that is ice. This usually shrinks a bit as we draw closer to T0. 752A Mon 2/3/25
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Wed Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 from Interstate 95 Baltimore-Philly-NYC through PA-NYS-southern New England: Snow-sleet begins sometime Wednesday or Wednesday evening then over to ice early Thursday, probably ending as plain rain midday Thursday, except still ice I84 high terrain. Timing of the worst is a little uncertain but problems could develop Maryland-PA-central-southern NJ between 9AM and 3PM Wednesday with widespread delays and cancellations anticipated for the Thursday morning commute entire interior region from I95 northwest. A map of ensemble chance of more than one tenth inch glaze is attached. Max glaze thickness is unknown at this time due to sleet mix. The chances for this ice event is now about 100 percent. Suggest PLAN B- consider altering plans in the interior for a short time Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Also, NWS ensembles seem much more conservative than this outlook.
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Good Monday morning everyone, Feb 3. my 2c on what seems to be ensembled ahead. Planning. Last night was a snow tease here. There's a pretty good chance that between now and March, much of the I84 corridor will see over a foot of snow, possibly 2 feet, Baltimore-Philly-NYC 6-12". Nothing is guaranteed but we're on the northern fringe of a wetter than normal pattern for the next month, with 30 day melted water equivalent probably at least 4" by March 7. Interstate 84 corridor snow depth (ne PA-nw NJ-NYS-CT-MA) will have almost constant snow cover between Feb 6-March 6 (last nights snowfall may melt completely by tomorrow afternoon). Patience will be helpful safely and comfortably navigating the multiple weather related hazardous travel delays and cancellations this month into possibly the first week of March.
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Early yesterday ensembles had a half inch CP and I thought it was discussed here. When you're on the margins, you have to be a little more careful about predicting.
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I've checked back and looking forward. First the CMCE and EPS blend did best for this past Sunday evenings snowfall... GEFS not good---way too low. I've discovered a problem in the 24hr CMCE 10 to 1 mean vs the 24hr CMCE positive snow depth. Will post in the morning when awake. The thread for the 5th-6th has been started and I'll add a new thread for the 8th-9th at 9A this morning. You're probably enjoying the spate of probable wintry events coming up the next two weeks. I like it cause it means we can moisten the ground. In the 10 days ending the 12th including the tenth of an inch tonight... all ensembles 1.5". Probably add another 3/4" to extend it out to 360 hours... beneficial, presuming it occurs something like this.
