wdrag

Wantage NJ 4sw: 515A 0.2" and 27F... snow starting to stick on driveway. Steady light snow in progress. Walt

18z/10 ECMWF op says prepare for flurries tomorrow and gusts to at least 45 MPH parts of our area with power outages, esp NJ/PA/e LI. 40KT gust ATL recently, best fit 18z ECMWF. All other models a bit more conservative.

For fun, since we have modeled guidance posts the past several days of a deep highly anomalous cold unstable trough passage Tuesday. Momentum transfer via the NAM FOUS BL Wind hreshold of 27 kt and the Richardson Number as viewed on Bob Harts web pages, suggests winds do not exceed 45 MPH . However ECMWF EPS suggests marginal gusts 45-50 MPH southern part of the NYC subforum midday spreading into the NYC-Long Island and ridges above 1000 feet late in the day or evening. Impact mainly air travel and possibly isolated or scattered broken branches impeding traffic here and there. Of greater interest to the NYC subforum is the likelihood of flurries or even scattered light snow showers moving across the forum area including NYC-Li midday-afternoon. Could this be CP's first trace of snow for the 25-26 winter? 06z/10 EPS range via prob 10% (high gust) and 90% (low gust) 06z/10 median wind gust (marginal) and First measurable snow history Posted fina 1218PM/10 (0718z/10

I'll possibly thread tomorrows 45MPH+ wind gusts and flurries, this afternoon. In the meantime... more rain coming to NYC and parts of NJ shortly. Here's the past 24 hour amounts and amounts since Fri. Click for clarity.

This big block in e Canada-Greenland I think is going to yield an equally pretty big storm response(s?) by Thanksgiving.

Monitor whats going on in the Delmarva -I95 corridor... VERY sharp trough developing eastern USA. WPC D1 from this afternoon mirrored the SPC HREF D1... looks too low in my NOWcast mode as I look at the radar and multiple models. Am looking for 1/4-3/4" for much of the subforum by Noon tomorrow between 7P tonight and Noon Monday. This past Fri-through Noon Monday should see 0.3-1.25" for the 4 day period by the time we look at CoCoRaHs range of dates.

Monitor but dont take the bait...once cycle and EPS has nil. Probably a tease but with the block as it is possibilities will present, but will they ever express as reality this month?

No thread attm for 1) the Tue wind advisory potential 10A-10P (marginal since the 850 jet doesn't increase past 40 kt til near sunset) and 2) the first flakes of the season at NYC CP ASOS...again hit or miss during Tue morning-early afternoon. Flurries are coming in the exceptionally unstable low level lapse rate to 750MB -momentum transfer from roughly down below 9000' (-12C 850 temp ANOMALY for this early in the season)..therefore mixing near 40 kt, especially late Tuesday and spewing virga/sct flurries/sprinkles into NYC with the BL temp a little too warm to be assured flurries at the CP ASOS but I think it will happen. This in association with the northeast departing 12hr 190M 5H HFallC and the oncoming 210M 5H HRiseC. IE... a high amplitude cold trough aloft getting ready to quickly exit the northeast USA. I saw the CFS comment a couple days ago about multi consecutive snow cycles for the interior NYC subforum tomorrow. I'm not a CFS fan and so I dont look at it very often. I did pay attention to the comment. It's a climate model so I doubt if it has the BL temp handled as well as the standard Global EC/GFS/ECAI. Even the ECAI still lags all other modeling and looks hopeful for cold rain into early Monday afternoon across most of the NYC subforum, but it looks like the BL temp is too warm for wet snow melting on pavement except maybe our nw NJ hills into the Catskills during the midday-afternoon hours, above 1000 feet. Fairly interesting pattern for Nov given the return of the strong 5H Block to eastern Canada-Greenland.

for what its worth the low tide early this morning was -1.77 feet MLLW at Sandy Hook, nudging the threshold for low water advisory there. Not sure what impact this had?

Somewhat interesting next Tue: the third near 200M amplifying 5H HFC in the eastern USA for the period 10/30-11/11. This time it amplifies too late and too far northeast - about 200M near Eastport Maine on the 11th. May result in our first flurries and more certainly another 45+MPH wind event (with less leaves to act as sails). Today is the 6th. No thread, if ever any, til at least this Saturday. Need modeling to agree more wind etc.

i wonder (for prior typo) why this wasnt published separately... in other 390' MSL is different than ~35' MSL (ASOS). I feel the same way about the High Point Monument NJ wind speeds... it's an idea above crown height but not very good ground truth.

Drought monitor and the classification change over the past week attached. Please click for clarity.

Formidable repeatable block N Canada-Greenland to persist into the week before Thanks giving (at least the 20th). Going to be interesting. Was all this blocking modeled beyond two weeks in advance? I like the cool season start UA pattern. Can't rule out first T of mixed r-s shower CP around next Tuesday as a very sharp trough exits. Probably wont happen but am sure of first flurries much of the I84 corridor this coming Monday-Tuesday, with low power prob some light grassy accums. Another wind event modeled- suggested later next week or weekend.

Leftover power outages at 8AM today after the late Wed eve-early Thu wind event. Pennsylvania45,455 New Jersey12,254 Maryland4,677 New York3,653

Much thanks for this OKX wind report. I'll close that these reports verified the advisory.

Reminder on why threads for NYC CP may be started below advisory level expectations. From a weather underground publication - Nov 1 2025: 6. You should pay close attention to light snowfall forecasts too: It's human nature to focus on the snow forecasts with high amounts, or just the highest total in, say, a "three to six-inch" forecast. But don't underestimate the hazard from light snow. According to a study released in 2019, 54% of deadly snow-related traffic accidents in the U.S. occurred where snowfall was too light or didn't last long enough to prompt the National Weather Service to issue a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory.

We as a science of modeling are not good beyond two weeks... missing out on the extremes potential. Most on here will see marked improvements later this century. Todays D6 is about as good as the D1 when I was kid in the late 50s.

What we know when we look back.. Blend of Model gust tool was 15 MPH conservative---just not a valid-useful product for this situation. I even checked the 19z issuance yesterday--- cant use it for this kind of CAA pattern with 35 MB difference between the departing New England low and the Central Plains high pressure system.

Was still blasting well after midnight... max gusts since 2AM this morning. Also news accounts of trees down in Queens etc. KACK: Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KBDR: Bridgeport, CT, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KBOS: Boston, Logan Intl Arpt, MA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KBVY: Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KCQX: Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KEWB: New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KGON: Groton/New London, CT, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KHWV: Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KMDT: Harrisburg, Harrisburg Intl Arpt, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMTP: Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KNHK: Patuxent River, Naval Air Stn, MD, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KOQU: N. Kingston / Quonset, RI, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KORH: Worcester, Worcester Regional Airport, MA, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KPVC: Provincetown, MA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KPVD: Providence, RI, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

Meters without power at midnight... Pennsylvania87,394 New Jersey15,711

That above shows max gusts around NYC metro around 54-55 MPH, LGA and TEB. Most ASOS 45-50 MPH in our subforum.

Past 3 hrs sampler... max gusts. (NYS MESONET and NJ CLIMATE sites less) KAVP: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KBGM: Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KBWI: Baltimore, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KCDW: Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KCXY: Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KDCA: Reagan National Airport, DC, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KDUB: Dubois, WY, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KEKN: Elkins, WV, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KHLG: Wheeling, Wheeling Ohio County Airport, WV, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KIPT: Williamsport, PA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KLNS: Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KMGJ: Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] \\ KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KMRB: Martinsburg, WV, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPHL: Philadelphia, Philadelphia Intl Arpt, PA, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KRDG: Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA, United States [44kt, 23m/s]] KSEG: Selinsgrove, Penn Valley Airport, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KSMQ: Somerville, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KTEB: Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

At least 5 stations in PA-NYS Apps westward are gusting 40-47KT near 7PM. Not sure how this will translate to our area and my confidence is less than yesterday for the thread headline but it will be a close for iso 50 KT easter LI I think. Power outages 7PM as a baseline. Pennsylvania6,439 New York4,518

There has been some small decrease in modeled winds tonight... I think the advisory covers it. 45 KT at BUF recently at 40 KT JST. Slowly increasing,

No changes from my view on the coming wind event tonight. Please continue to follow NWS advisories-warnings. I'll try and post info later this evening. May slightly update the thread headline at 5PM but otherwise all damage OBS in this thread tonight-thanks. Overall trend since yesterday, imo is wind advisory 40-45 kt gusts for 1-3 hours, except warning 50 KT ridges and eastern LI.