wdrag

saw Staten Island NYS mesonet 0.90. At least one major NYC TV station is behind the reality

NWS PHI recently upgraded the advisory to a Coastal Flood Warning for Ocean County-moderate flooding.

KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, 44 kt

Apparent storm damage on TV in the Bronx. 1200 meters out on Staten Island. now is the time for 45 MPH+ wind gusts n our area...next 5 hours; except later e Li.

JFK now 50 MPH gusts.

Thanks for your update and that matches the radar estimates. Brielle on the North shore of Ocean County NJ now G 52 Mph. winds increasing northward in NJ.

1/2"/hr n-s stripe near PHL with lightning now. not sure where this will end up but should rock a bit this aft-eve in our area...even e LI later this eve.

Noting power outages increasing PA-NJ .. over 7000 in NJ and some of it seems high terrain, esp ne PA.

really... very nice. Maybe you head for 2.5". Thinking some spots in our forum I95 westward 3-3.5" in 9 hours soon.

Lakehurst (KNEL) 51 MPH right now at about 1031A. Coming north imo

Max G NJ coast via NJ climate sites. 52 MPH at Little Egg Harbor near ACY, so far. Will post CoCoRaHs totals tomorrow morning 9A. Flightaware misery map for NYC airports significant. STP's from OKX and PHI look reasonable.

NJ Power outage up to 4500

Wantage 0.3" at 8A. My AWN running high at 0.35 (heavier rainfall rates). EWR 0.22, LGA and CP .20. JFK 0.07, ISP .05 and BDR .01 amounts so far today as of the 12z ob.

As of 630A... EPS/EPS AI best on rainfall through 12z... all other modeling slower-lower including SPC HREF. Near NYC spotty amounts of 1/4" per NYS mesonet and in NJ spotty amounts of 1/2". Sussex County NJ lagging for now with amounts least in NJ. G 40 MPH parts of NJ coast now. Power status NJ 1480 and NYS 350 ish which is NO big deal right now.

OBS-Nowcast should go here when we start predawn Thursday. Modeling of the previously drier GEFS and SREF are becoming better with the 18z cycle and drifting east. The 00z/30 SPC HREF may be helpful when it completes around 0530z. No changes seem needed to the headline.

modeling differences with the 06 EPS Suites heavier as well as SPC HREF. If its drier than 1" it would be east of I95, I think . Otherwise all I see is a continued impact event as headlined Thu afternoon. Reality check tomorrow, maybe sooner via modeling, but for now (06z/29 suites)... I see little reason to change anything.

Probably my last til 8A tomorrow an then I'll be off line all day tomorrow roughly 830A-8P. NO changes to the thread headline... I like it very much as is. Mesoscale modeling will show bands of 3" and some spots 1/2-1". 18z HRRR and NAM have no dry slot til after 03z/31. 18z WPC continues with their 1-1.75" isohyets for virtually the entire subforum. They must have gone with the heavier 12z EPS/EPSAI ...maybe Deepmind? though I dont have access to Deep Mind. 12z CMCE and GEFS were less than WPC so there is always that possibility. The 12z ensembles were heavier than many of op runs. Lets see how it plays. I have not read any discussions today from NWS.. so there may be some reasoning I missed. PHI has started their advisory for coastal flooding NJ coast south of Monmouth. It's only a matter of time I think that the advisory expands northward, but FOLLOW NWS. I suspect a wind advisory issues for coastal sections tomorrow morning (6 hr window in the aft or eve depending on location) and reserving the back side. That prepares folks for some delays etc. Friday wind advisory possibility NJ/LI reserves for a later issuance. HSLC thunder and squally gust possible late Thu. There is going to be significant impact for a few hours Thursday, especially afternoon-eve. One final addition at 450P. NAM 5H 12 hr HFC cyclicly at least last 3 cycles near 200M in e PA around 06z/31. Should become a little unstable for a few hours ahead of it.

Still overall AOB normal first 10 days... and models are "attempting" first flakes mix for I84 high terrain, esp 11/8-9. Nothing unusual.

Kind of agree... still not to give up hope since neg tilt, instability aloft. In bands... probably best eastern PA into central NYS northwest of the 850 low, but all modeling continues with beneficial amounts for the forum. Impossible for me to know for sure... ensembles (esp EC and ECAI ae larger than I anticipated when looking at their 00z/28 ops).

There might be some impact from Melissa--adjusting the flow patterns, but for now... I'm not attributing Melissa indirectly -- I'd have to prove it w some science and that for me is not easily done. Speculation herein warranted but not for media as yes (gospel pronouncement). Basically what I see is a routine event Thursday... the 09z/28 WPC 3 day beneficial totals are within the 1 year repeat interval so its just a matter of impacts on travel. I don't see anything worse than thread headlined. Wind advisory coasts Thursday ahead of the low, and then maybe again behind it Friday afternoon-eve; scattered tree limbs down here and there for power outages, but not extensive unless we get a good squall-line (HSLC) event Thursday afternoon-evening. Coastal flooding limited to minor, imo-psurge values into minor have decreased on the GFS/GEFS/NAEFS. Therefore, its the previously exposed (Oct 12-13 event) coastal locations that seem most vulnerable to coastal flooding (NJ),. Still time to adjust but for now my anticipation has waned a bit due to the upper 5h low arcing northeastward through western-central PA.

Last several GFS op cycles offering 4+ in a narrow band roughly MMU-POU... something to model monitor tomorrow. Likely my last on this til Tue am. Unsure whether PHI or OKX are looking at HSLC etc.

High Shear Low Cape (HSLC) environment for e PA/NJ/LI Thu afternoon? Don't know. We'll monitor SPC etc on this. Right now flash density from the 12z/27 EC op has a possibility of thunder here Thu afternoon NJ/ NYC. Back tomorrow.

Update through 658A/27... no changes. Ensemble modeling continues similar with two groups..eastward wetter GEFS suites and slightly westward EC suites. Results are similar. I am not planning to work outside Thursday in northwest NJ, cleaning my gutters of leaves the day before-Wed AM... might need standby DVD in case of internet-power outage Thu afternoon as all modeled products this morning are similar to what we saw yesterday, including the high likelihood of coastal flooding with the Thu aftn-evening high tide cycle. 06z GFS went a little ballistic on qpf and that is related to the nearly stand still Thu aft-evening inflow pattern with PW over 1.5", caused by a suddenly intensifying 5H HFC across NJ---I cant figure the reasons for that... almost like a breathing 5H low HFC... 200M HFC TN Valley a day or two before, then weakens across VA and suddenly strengthens PA/NJ Thurs. IF it happens, I'd have to add an inland flooding tag to the thread and update ARI since this sole GFS cycle has spot 6" amounts in se NYS. I'm not buying that solution right now. One thread change that I may have to make is beef up the chance of iso svr ... but will wait til Tuesday evening before any adjusting.

Please follow any NWS Watches, warnings, statements that may arise from this coming minor or moderate event. This is a D4-5 advance heads-up thread for those who have a need to be advised. Modeling has plenty of spread in solutions so that the ensembles are somewhat muted. There is no doubt in my mind that some sort of minor or possibly moderate impact event is coming. Modeling has been wavering for the past 4 days and hopefully uncertainties resolve by mid week. If I had plans as a motorist or via air travel Thursday-early Friday, I'd think about delays and how to minimize adverse impact, then possibly implement changes Tuesday or Wednesday Timing of the 6-10 hour worst case is uncertain. Beneficial rainfall should result in October totals at all NWS OKX-Upton climate sites roughly 3.3-4.3", within about 1/2" of normal. Not everyone will get 1"+ but the attached Sunday afternoon 10/26 WPC guidance is a best estimate for D4-5. Rainfall still could end up less than indicated. A graphic of average return interval (ARI) for various event amounts, at NYC, is attached-not alarming. This could still end up a routine event although I think wind can add impact. Rainfall intensity during one of the rush hours combined with potential for a period of east-southeast wind gusts 45-55 mph on the remaining wet fully leaved trees may result in a scattering of broken limb caused power outages, similar to the 10/12-13 event. Lunar cycle argues for maximum worst case coastal flooding in the minor category. Modeling from P-Surge is attached. It might be too robust (follow NWS), suggesting a worst cause 3 ft surge along parts of the coasts during the Thursday afternoon-evening high tide cycle (using Sandy Hook as example). Lowered pressure this time compared to 10/12-13 contributes to the surge. Please be aware ensembles are not showing much more than 50-55knot se inflow here, limiting potential for excessive rainfall and surge. There is a slightest chance for isolated severe however CAPE seems to be very limited, despite the favorable strong shear and diffluent upper level flow. A 100-150M 12 hour 500 MB Height Fall Center circles northeastward from the southeast central USA into PA/NJ early Friday. That helps drive the relatively short duration heavy rain event. Presuming the upper Low continues to evolve northward through PA into NYS the eastern Great Lakes there should be a progressive rapid improvement sometime Friday morning. Westerly winds may gust 25-35 MPH at times during Halloween evening but hopefully without any showers in the area. Ensemble rainfall from several modeling centers has been attached as something to look back upon Saturday 11/1 when all the totals are in. The 500MB ensembles attached also show the 12 hr HFC. Fairly modest in comparison to some of the operational cycles we've been seeing the past several days. If the 5h ensemble pattern prevails or is further west, then we've tracked a routine event. The thread current headline will eventually update if moderate impact potential decreases. For now this hopefully adequately summarizes what is on the table for rain/wind/coastal concerns. Let's see if its worth tracking. 620P/26

At a 40th party now but I will get a tracker thread going for Thursday-Friday. Moderate impact 12 hour event 1-3 inches, all the other parameters mentioned earlier today. I just need computer time at home to phrase carefully. Should see the thread at 6pm. Have seen 12z/26 gfs and cmc ops. remember this is D5. Lots can go awry so let’s be a little cautious on anticipating too much wind and rain.