wdrag

Sampling of rainfall in narrow groups-swaths roughly 2PM yesterday- 8AM this morning. Click for clarity. Interesting 15 hours ahead. At 838AM added the NJ and NYS climate mesonet 24 hours amounts.

To get this started brief heavy showers have dropped at least 1 to 3 tenths of an inch in far nw NJ and se NYS since 2PM.

Follow NWS warnings-statements. A flood watch has just been issued by the NWS for a portion of the NYC subforum. I'd prepare for some delays Thursday-Thursday evening, possibly a few detours. If a road is flooded, don't cross it---turn around-done drown. Not worth the risk. We dont know where exactly 4+" of rain should occur but the potential exists as a slow moving frontal boundary possibly ends as a near northeast gale for LI. Plenty of PWAT (1.5"+) along with the RRQ of a strong confluence zone 5h-3H et across northern Maine-the Maritimes causes large scale overrunning of the southward sagging frontal boundary Thursday-Thursday night when the bulk of the heavy rain occurs. For now, it appears the region from I78 northward is vulnerable to excessive short fuse runoff but the HREF added graphic shows the isolated 7+ inches POTENTIAL(browns from the legend) just south and west of our NYC subforum. Nevertheless, this should be a somewhat interesting 48 hour period. For reference have added the 12z Wed 7/30 ensembles CMCE, EPS, GEFS as well as the 48 hour MEAN rainfall from the SPC HREF ending 12z Friday with magenta 1.5"+, and the MAX potential rainfall from the HREF which suggests isolated 7-possibly 10" but primarily southwest of the NYC subforum. See legend but dont take location verbatim and. dont necessarily believe 7+ can occur. Antecedent conditions are not excessively wet so large rivers are not likely to flood, but small streams, especially near urban areas could see overflow Flash Flood response.

Heavy showers organizing E PA. SPC HREF seems to have spot 7" MAX potential by Thu evening. Waiting completion of the HREF and then probably starting a thread for iso FF, detours, travel delays...sometime between 4-8P.

Will make my final decision on an OBS-Discussion thread for the upcoming rainfall which I think may produce small pockets of FF within the general 3/4-4"---iso max of 6" I think is possible. Primary event Noon Thu-Noon Fri (16z/31-16z/1), but preceded north of I80 by scattered heavy showers/iso severe 4PM-10P (20z/30 -02z/31) today. Most vulnerable via variability in the modeling - cant be sure where to lock it in but for our subforum between I84 and I95. Todays 12z SPC HREF will be my primary guidance, along with other supporting modeling --HRRR etc.

IF NWS issues a flood watch, will start a thread. Its marginal right now but I expect more or less what WPC has posted this morning with isolated max rainfall of 6". No thread at this time.

No thread from me on the around 100F (near record) heat vicinity NYC-EWR next two days---this July thread suffices. No thread from me on the 20z Wed-20z Friday probably 1-4" needed short term rainfall near and northwest of I95...isolated higher possible. Mainstem flood threat minimal. However several small area FFW possible Thursday CT/NYS/NNJ-LI, especially if SVR develops? If it looks worse tomorrow morning, will thread but for now relatively routine: fun for us but nothing extraordinary yet projected. SPC has marginal risk Wednesday and no SVR Thursday. That may need adjustment with time. WPC has a slight risk excessive Thursday and I like that---just not willing to overcommit a thread at this time. This based on on modeling seen through 00z/29 and WPC products available at 553A/29. Wish you a safe day.

Don's pre-summer outlook of a statistically significantly warmer than normal summer looks like it will come to pass with June-July at KEWR top 6. Very good statistical call barring a chilly August. Waiting on a thread til tomorrow morning for two 100F days at KEWR, (for me unexpected in lae June), to be followed by a potential widespread 1-4" forum rainfall with iso 8"... EPS through 12z/28 cycle continues strong on this, though edging northward. I also have to think there has to be a stripe of svr near the boundary Thursday? Just too early for me to be sure the EPS is going to be mostly correct. From what I can tell, WPC is so far, accepting the EPS solution.

CoCoRaHs rainfall for the Fri-Sun period. Much less than anticipated MAX rainfall. Click for clarity.

No thread from me on Tue-Fri til the last minute (Tue morning?). GFS MOS seems a little cool on the maxes Tue and Wed and too low on chance of rain Thu, maybe Fri too. GEFS coming up on qpf now... all ensembles under 2.5" but the EC OP Max #'s are interesting the past two cycles (isolated over 7" location-location?)

CoCoRaHs totals will be added sometime late this morning.

EPS 95-100 TUE and WED. central LI west. Also a 50-60% prob of 1+" in 24 hrs for NJ Thu into Fri. Not threading yet but may combine Tue-Fri morning for the two probable 100"s at KEWR Tue and Wed and a heavy rain event I95 corridor sewd later Wed-Fri... most ensembles not buying the cyclically repetitive EPS R+. Worthy of. monitoring.

General failure of todays part of the thread. Occurrence too far south.

Seemingly capped now... looks pathetic unless something gets going around 2P. Sunday portion of the thread...looking as a failure on my part.

Continues interesting... esp NJ. Yes clusters split us north and south and not what I wanted to see at 6A. Still should be some big storms this afternoon in NJ with potential for a small pocket of 4" just southwest of NYC in NJ.

Monitoring potential 100F KEWR into central LI Tue-Wed, before a possible widespread heavy rain event late Wed-early Fri when it cools considerably. NWS heat products eventually for Wednesday as well, HI up near 105 then when the worst HI of the next 4 days.

Not sure if anyone is noticing... near 100 possible central LI Wed... EC past several cycles. then its all done for 10 days.

Am fairly satisfied with D1... plenty of svr and narrow streaks of 1-1.5". Even 100 at KEWR and daily RER's here and there. Letting late Sat-Sunday play out. Am confident pockets of FF-SVR, ,mainly NJ-LI... Buoyancy will pretty good, better Bulk Shear and larger PW near 2.4". Let's see what happens.

5H Trough generally in the eastern half of the USA this month with a strong ridge in the Rockies, possibly shifting west? Tropics eventually should get going... but impact up here in the NYC subforum unknown to this poster. Added the 7/31 August outlook by CPC on 8/1/25-948AM. Final monthly departures added Sept 5. August monthly outlook in the eastern USA was poor on temps, and somewhat ok on qpf. Just didnt pick up on the extremes.

Potency continues for two events... MAY? add up to an isolated 5" storm today by Sunday night along with damaging wind-power outages-local detours. Follow NWS warning products. SPC has a slight risk for SVR today and nothing for Sunday which (imo only) may be underplayed for NJ on Sunday.. WPC has marginal risk for FF this afternoon-evening, again Saturday night-Sunday. Today: Large low level lapse rates may make up for lack of deep instability in a 95-100F max temp environment this afternoon. Fairly progressive sewd moving event but PW around 2" suggests wet microbursts mainly 4P-8P Sunday: low pressure focuses lift Sunday in a potentially more widespread FF event, especially NJ-LI. While instability a little less, the convergence with PWAT almost 2.4" may more than compensate. Be alert traveling late today and Sunday and have alternate plans for delays. Note: There might be late Saturday afternoon heavy showers in north central NJ s of i80 but the real deal is Sunday midnight-3PM. I have not included Tuesday's severe potential---in another thread early next week if my assessment is correct.

No thread Fri-Sun but have no changes on expectations...NYC-KEWR 100F has the least certainty. sct svr, iso FF both Fri afternoon-Sunday. Iso 72 hr total 5+. Will recheck with a little more time to digest tomorrow morning 6A. Plan on active Fri aft and Sunday.

RJAY led the way a few weeks ago. He gets the cred. Very nice pic

Pretty good chance will issue a thread for Fri-Sun at 8P this evening. Includes SVR FF potential Fri afternoon (in my opinion only-despite weak 5-7H lapse rates T/TD spreads of 30F at max heating 2PM Fri will favor downdrafts-downbursts---especially near NYC) as well as 'possible' first 100F NYC since 2012; and SVR FF Sunday with spot 5" 72 hr total by 06z/Monday. I know the group think is that CP is viewed as a cooling center relative to surroundings. However, EC continues pushing 100 for NYC. We'll see if its too aggressive.

No threading tonight but continues to look interesting to me Fri-Sun and next Tue before an extended cool down develops late next week. No Aug thread from myself til late Fri afternoon after the CPC week 3-4 issues.

No threads yet on the following: Fairly widespread SVR late Fri. Spot 5" totals 18z Fri-06z Mon, inclusive of several short duration FF events, primarily Sunday. This may include embedded iso svr. Last chance for 100F this year Newark-NYC seems like this Friday but above normal mean of 90+ occurrences at hand for KEWR as 90+ reoccurs Saturday and Tuesday July 29. Tuesday: nw flow svr event. August: seasonable variability again as per July with a cooler than normal first week, then seemingly wetter and warmer than normal last 3 weeks of Aug as the w Atlantic ridge builds in response to the strong 5H heat ridge near the Rockies, possibly edging west toward the end of the month. Support from 00z/22 GEFS qpf through 700+ hours as seen on Pivotal and spot check of ECMWF INT and the July 17 CPC 1 month outlook. This suggests to me probably no more 100 at KEWR but plenty of 90-95 after the first week of August. Will check in tomorrow