wdrag

Yes... I want to do some outside work while still daylight but all ensembles now on board, despite the 12z/8 CMCE OP OTS. widespread wind driven 1", iso MAX 4 12z Sun-12z Tue G 50-60 Mph LI NJ coasts, beach erosion, multiple cycles of at least MINOR CF, with potential for major NJ coast Sun and Mon highest tide cycles. Probably start it around 8P.

SUBTROPICAL low for the e coast this week-early next week? Will this get some sort of NWS identity in the very near future if modeling continues on course (GFS/EC). ? This is where NWS-NHC step in. I accept their definition. It is tropical moisture late this week unleashed by a developing cold core aloft (7h-5h as example this weekend) and the cold air bordering the system to the west and north. . I've been out of NWS since 2018 but this might get an identity of some sort. Little question in my mind regarding potential high impact along the coasts for LI-NJ southward and maybe across to the SNE coast? I just want ECAI which has been consistent cyclically for an event since the 06z/4 cycle (see trop tidbits for `12z Monday Oct 13)

.44 here in Wantage midnight-6A.

This is where NWS-NHC step in. I accept their definition. It is tropical moisture late this week unleashed by a developing cold core aloft (7h-5h as example this weekend) and the cold air bordering the system to the west and north. NWS OKX (or elsewhere) step in. I've been out of NWS since 2018 but this might get an identity of some sort. Little question in my mind regarding potential high impact along the coasts for LI-NJ southward and maybe across to the SNE coast? I just want ECAI which has been consistent cyclically for an event since the 06z/4 cycle (see trop tidbits for `12z Monday Oct 13)

Just waiting on 06z EPS/EPSAI... looks good, in large part due to shortwave diving se through the Great Lakes late this week forcing a closed low there, then ingesting the separate southeastern USA 5H trough-rain area. Doesnt look like a tropical system to me but a pretty strong nor'easter Noon Sunday-Noon Tuesday. 1-4" NJ/LI w G 50-60 MPH, power outages from fully leaved tree branches breaking, and coastal flooding Sun-Mon high tide, with potential for one of these midday high tide cycles MDT coastal flooding (low prob spot Major). Less impacts CT/NYS but still beneficial. Canadian is a no show so far and I do want to see EC AI become bigger again. Still a chance the brunt escapes s NJ-Delmarva.

Dont think this will miss but will wait til the 06z/8 cycles are in tomorrow morning to start a thread for 1-4" of rain NJ/LI and less north with G 50-60 MPH coast Monday. ECAI I think will go back solid hit by tomorrow morning. If it does not, then will leave this as a general 0.1-1.5" rain and no thread. I think a clue to further N is the 12z/7 GEFS showing the closed 5H low starting in the Great Lakes Sat night and then it may become the dominant driver instead of further S. Something I'm watching but not yet completely sold. I'm prepared for periods of rain here in nw NJ 18z Sun-18z Tue...something like that. gotta run and cut the summer cone flowers.

12z/5 ECAI looks like the outlier now as 12z-18z/5 global trend is south or nil for Sun-Tue. If this ends up nil, it would undermine my confidence in the still consistent soaking EC AI. Waiting it out a day or so.

Back from a week in the PAC NW (SEA-SFO). Seeing cyclic consistency in the EC-AI op strong nor'easter hit since 00z/5 (6 consecutive cycles). EPS EPS AI gaining confidence (50-60 MPH gusts potential coastal spots s LI and NJ, as well as 1-4" rain). BUT as noted previously by others, a little early to be sure though WPC D7 QPF has accepted the likelihood of a significant storm. BOM has not. Also duration of event is in doubt from a decent 18 hr hit to a lengthy 60 hour event. Too soon for a thread but many are monitoring. Have a day and will recheck tomorrow morning.

Saw the much less than modeled rainfall totals for this past week. Maybe we get more tonight and tomorrow which was in the original consideration. Still a bit dissatisfying totals

Any TC rain hits? Any early season interior high terrain snow acc late in the month? Do we experience above normal rainfall for October?

I didnt start a thread... bit marginal for iso 5" by 12z Friday but certainly a general 1-3" event coming with uncertainty on best axis 5. Someone will probably get into an iso FF situation- water rescues etc but its not widespread enough for me to thread. Of continuing interest for me is additional rainfall Friday-Sunday morning per closed low connection to our south. If that happens... we could be blessed with another 0.1-1.5" N to S. across our subforum. It seems to me the front will hang up closer to us than now modeled.

Continuing review for a possible thread 6PM today for 22z/24-12z/26.Pprior posts by Bluewave have it right. 1-3 iso 5 possible. Getting complex. The closed low OH Valley will happen and looking like we get something addition from it 18z Sat-18z Sun. Thereafter, uncertainty greater but as noted previously, tropics get involved with the east coast trough-W Atcl ridge. At a minimum, I would not be fishing in the coastal waters next Tue-Wed. Even if the tropics peel east-shunted s, the large cool high settling into New England sets up the potential for an early season modest gale on the CW s of LI and e of NJ, assisted by the larger BL temp lapse rate. Offline most of the day. 0.24 here in this part of nw NJ last evening.

for now-no thread on the oncoming early Tuesday morning WPC D1-3 1-3" and SPC D1 and D3 marginal svr. Anything after Friday morning is in doubt. Think it best to happen in the 60 hr window 18z today-06z Fri.

Glad it worked out despite off by 4 miles on storms... and much thanks for the followup review (including dance)!

No thread attm--maybe something delayed now til late Tuesday???: need more ensemble support but still looking at widespread 1-3 rainfall totals Tuesday afternoon-next Sunday with iso 5+ POSSIBLE. Depends on evolution and track of developing UA low Ohio Valley middle and end of next week... ie stall the showery late Tuesday surface CFP just to our south Wed-Sunday with weak waves of low pressure. LONG Ways off but am not too alarmed by the recent dryness... happens and then a blast of rain. We do need that OH Valley Upper Level (5H for example) LOW to form and eject across NJ next Sunday as it finally weakens. Otherwise wait til October. All ensembles 1+. My greatest doubt is Fri-Sun...whether the tilt to the trough is more positive than what I thought yesterday, not permitting the Fri-Sun portion of the qpf into our area but shunting it further south across the Delmarva?? Yes, am aware that this OH Valley trough and eventual eastward progress might build the w ATLC ridge enough to permit a tropical threat late Sun-next Tuesday=this paragraph said with little confidence but awareness. For now... lets get some beneficial rain in here Tue-Thu. I haven't checked on the svr threat. Have a day.

No thread attm--maybe something late Monday???: need more ensemble support but looking at widespread 1-3 rainfall totals Tuesday afternoon-next Sunday with iso 5+ POSSIBLE. Depends on evolution and track of developing UA low Ohio Valley middle and end of next week... ie stall the showery late Tuesday surface CFP just to our south Wed-Sunday with weak waves of low pressure. LONG Ways off but am not too alarmed by the recent dryness... happens and then a blast of rain. We do need that OH Valley LOW to form and eject across NJ next Sunday as it finally weakens. Otherwise wait til October.

CoCoRaHs after 6A 9/17/25. Isolated near 2" Wall Township in Monmouth.

Wantage NJ this part. about 0.10. (NOT zero).

Around 3/4” now in parts of Monmouth County past 6 hours and spotty hourly amounts, Over 1/4”. Finally got going.

Lost confidence in any meaningful rain near NYS/NJ border and even elsewhere. Pattern has not induced my expectations this morning in NJ/LI. Could be zero up here in far nw NJ/se NYS unless something comes in off the ocean but right now, just not seeing it. Modeling seems too heavy on our northern fringe I80 northward but have my fingers crossed something gets going by early afternoon.

12z/16 RDPS - RGEM starts out much better than the NAM suite-RAP. So for me planning I80 north... some sort of cross between 12 HRRR/RGEM. Even SPC HREF from 00z/16 cycle sees too far s this morning and the max missed the 1" at Cape May as seen on the NJ CLIMAT web site.

Good morning again... 1002A check of tropical tidbits for the 12z/16 NAM 12 and 3K vs reality and the 12z HRRR. 12z/16 NAM suite looks terrible to start... too far south by many many miles. Difficult to believe the initialization of qpf is so bad. EMC needs to check this. In the meantime the 12z HRRR looks like a much better start. Not saying anything about the outcome tomorrow, no different than above but for today... yikes.

Of interest to me... the steadiest of all the modeling the past 5 days or so... the ECAI and its ECAIEPS. Rain is coming and underplayed I80 northward. I think NYC counts on 0.1-0.4" and up here in far nw NJ/ne PA/along the nYS border 0.05-0.30. WPC should have statistical comparisons of the ensembles and am surprised its so dry in its overnight forecast. Could be my interp is incorrect but while this wont be a great relief from the recent dryness, it will help, provided my interp is correct. Wont surprise me to see at least an inch in spots across theNJ/LI portion of our subforum. GEFS lagging and so we'll know tomorrow night and I guess that's what WPC tends to support.

Late yesterday (9/13/25) shower amounts via CoCoRaHs Click if in disbelief.

Thank you... may take as well as well as Bluewave. We've got so many classifications of things... we've lost simplicity of when to amp interest. Folks certainly cant keep up with all the changes... Farmers are interested for sure as this did seem to stunt corn in late summer. Otherwise, I view this summer as having been sort of dull... not much SVR and very limited tropical with heat dominating JJ first week of Aug.