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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Total QPF finding nice max axis fro Hunterdon-Morris-Passaic counties.
  2. wdrag
    You should know 51 KT has just occurred at ILG and I think 52kt se PA ...both coinciding with recent power outage increases in those areas as seen on the power outage map. I'll post as my overnight ambulance driver coverage permits.
  3. wdrag
    The only reason now no new 16th MDT impact snow rain thread is on -going thread now, then another serious event thread Fri night. I'll start this thread tomorrow morning 10AM if we have power, which I expect we will here in nw NJ. I checked rolling 24 hour positive snow depth change and the CMCE/GEFS both have it, an inch less than the consistent EPS but a day FASTER...15th. Attached EPS 00z and 12z cycles: 24 hr +snow depth change, ending 06z/17
  4. wdrag
    One comment on CF... timing is everything with the high tide cycle. Next storm Fri night-Sat AM is seemingly modeled to be worse than what occurs tomorrow morning.
  5. wdrag
    Dunkirk NY 64 Kt. Latrobe PA 57 kt. Erie 55kT. Power outages at 2PM.
  6. wdrag
    Agree 100%. This is a time one voice,. Dissent won't be in anyone favor. Prepare to mitigate if the power goes out or you develop roof leaks-cellar flooding or live next to a flooded waterway.
  7. wdrag
    Now Oregon less than 10,000 meters out. but the idea above holds.
  8. wdrag
    One of the problems with this storm... damage so widespread that support crews are needed not in only in one concentrated area but spread out. At least 10,000 meters out in each of the states of WA/OR, then from Texas-KS east with over 100,000 meters out in FL and I think fairly extensive power outages headed for western NYS and up the USA east coast. Hoping we luck out here in slightly c cooler nw NJ. But ridges in the Poconos might get surprise big burst early tonight.
  9. wdrag
  10. wdrag
    Wantage NJ light rain-sleet 0.4" total snow sleet at 1250PM. HRRRX wind guidance. 60 kt is modeled for LI...the 50-60 KT NJT, not sure what that is but it could be a squall line damaging puff.
  11. wdrag
    Suggest taking wind seriously from Cape May NJ to JFK eastward with 45-55 MPH NYC, but Cape May to southern LI 60 MPH + likely. best time s NJ near 7PM up to NYC -LI mid-3A. I think precautions are wise. I just posted the MINIMUM gust potential from an 8 member SPC High Res model. Its imperfect. I dont want to look at the worst but 75 MPH is not impossible on LI. Minimum: Purple is 60, dark brown 55, ;light brown 50 and this is a snapshot of wind gusts near 1AM. The HRRR and SPC HREF gin gusts tend to be used. by firewater folks. High res data. Within 24 hours...need to pay attention. to this guidance.
  12. wdrag
    MT Pocono 1" new snow. Power outages s central pa related to 5-6" new wet snow there. 90 MPH wind gusts ridges. here's a sampler.
  13. wdrag
    Albany GA 61 KYT, Dunkirk NY on L Erie 55 kt.
  14. wdrag
    Wantage NJ. This lower elevation part 0.3” snow. Now sleet snow mix. All treated surfaces wet but home pavements etc snow covered and 31F
  15. wdrag
    1 mile S- 31f. Pave wet in Wantage 740’ msl
  16. wdrag
    I've seen multiple member concerns about too early... will hold off til 12z/10 cycle completes tomorrow (unless exceedingly convincing Positive snow depth consensus on 12z cycle.. I completely understand hugger or Apps track for the 16th...and too many threads. I'll wait but modeling gets pretty good out to D10 on big ones. This dual storm thread started 12/31... open ended allowing possibilities on events and improve toward T0. Renewed flooding is again a possibility for I95 next Tuesday if it doesn't snow (presuming tonights event 2+" and Friday night 1" events occur occur NNJ basins. 00z/10 NAEFS response is so far east at D7-8 that it will have to edge west for a snowstorm ne USA. I somehow dont see this as a Great Lakes cutter--- more of a positive tilt trough. Even today its going to snow-sleet I84-nw NJ. Thursday is going to be interesting NYS lee of Lakes-pretty good short wave. Then that Friday night storm I think will end up east of current track with snow ice I84 to start. I will wait
  17. wdrag
    NAEFS check is only 2 tenths of an inch along the coast and more OTS for the 16th-17th. That is caution to the wind for me as well. I need to wait for the 12z cycle before threading.
  18. wdrag
    Agreed... I think if you permit, when I probably thread this later today, I'd like to use your graphic and comment as well as mine to set this up. Modeling can still be off quite a bit but it's improving on large scale events 7-10 days in advance. Just let me know.
  19. wdrag
    06/9 GEFS does not have an inch for the 16th storm...not yet. GEFS tends to be conservative and I like the 06z op idea. No thread on this storm from myself til sometime between 11A-5P. I prefer to be better armed with somewhat more favorable consensus guidance. I do think it will happen I95 west but I dont want to post a HOPE thread.
  20. wdrag
    One step at a time for this storm: Note--- ridges in Sussex County NJ and the Poconos-Litchfield Hills will see a small accumulation of snow during midday. Next the winds: I've looked at minimum wind gusts in the SPC HREF Fire menu. It's 55+ iz expanding as it is the HRRRX. Southern and coastal NJ/Delmarva up to near NYS-LI will see 50-65 MPH will gusts here and there tonight. The flooding depends on the bands of 2-4". I see it best in northeast PA and then I95 and am hoping Sussex County in nw NJ gets out of here with only 1-1.5". Snow clogged gutters will spawn leaks I think where 2"+ occurs. Where the 3-4" occurs, I think cellars will be tested. The temps in the 50s will be only 6 hours before back down into the upper 30s-40s by sunrise. My guess is I84 northward will hold the water for a slower release the next several days with snow remaining at 2" or higher. My guess is Sussex County might still have 1" left tomorrow morning... I'm hoping for that. I dont want to deal with rapid release flooding tomorrow morning,
  21. wdrag
    Sighhhh.... please-please understand that the NWS is a standardized government operation (one voice) with national control and very little local office options to reconfigure baseline products to local improvements. In my opinion, we would be lost on flooding at river forecast points without the already the D1-3 forecasts and the ensemble products. Pick your battles. In my opinion, we live well with what we have.
  22. wdrag
    Good Tuesday morning everyone, It is Dec 9. Storms today, late Friday-Saturday, next Tuesday and possibly the 19th-20th. Various moderate to high impact flavors on your life that will require adjustments. PLEASE follow National Weather Statements on the various phenomena this next week. Keep the shovel handy, the sump pump working, generator on standby with plenty of fuel and phones charged. You stand a good chance for a period of no power between now and next Tuesday night. Cellars will be tested for combined rainfall-snowmelt from NJ/PA northeast to Massachusetts. There may be isolated roof collapses and a better chance of roof leaks because snow-ice clogged gutters. Cancellations for various storms will be required in some places, especially NJ/PA/New England/NYS. I will likely begin the Tuesday 16th thread sometime between 11AM and 5PM. I've attached the 00z/9 EPS 24 hour positive snow depth change map that ends at 198 hours. Pretty significant but again looks tentatively like I95 west to the Appalachians.. I think its this storm that brings back normal or subnormal temps for a day or two, followed by a cold front around the 19th-20th that reinforces the normal or subnormal cold. Extended thaw? I doubt before the 23rd.
  23. wdrag
    The modeled next powerful storm into the Great Lakes region should add around another inch of rain in 6-12 hours Friday night, possibly causing renewed urban, basement and small stream flooding and probably extending on-going mainstem flooding in the NYCsubforum through the weekend. Maximum south-southeast coastal gusts possibly capped around 50 MPH along the shore Friday night but when the storm gets into Canada, backside westerly gusts might hit 50 MPH anywhere in the NYC subforum for brief periods of time later Saturday into Sunday. So some power outages are possible. Coastal flooding does not appear to be a large threat. Snow-sleet-freezing rain is anticipated at the start Friday afternoon-evening along the I84 corridor bordering the northwest portion of NYC subforum with "possible" short duration amounts generally 1/2-2" mainly in the high terrain above roughly 1000 feet. I84 corridor valleys, probably little or no accumulation. Max rainfall from this storm maybe ~2'? This thread will also serve as the OBS thread for this anticipated event.
  24. wdrag
    CPC's hazard issuance Jan 16-beyond. No see citification on precip so let's say normal... but snow, wind and cold are on the table... low probs but on the table. I like this for consideration of Jan 16-17. Just not enough for me to make it thread...not yet --- possibly by Friday.
  25. wdrag
    Have seen enough of the ensembles for 16th-17th. I'll leave that one out of the thread, for future consideration of a thread where I think we either have a period of snow or a snowstorm with I95 the east boundary and the assorted variations. Thread on this Fri-Sat should appear 5P. Have errands to run and focus I hope is the oncoming 9 hour torrential rain/wind event event Fri night - preceded by 1/2-2" snow sleet ne PA, extreme nw NJ north of I84 high terrain to Worcester Friday midday-afternoon.
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