wdrag

Lets give some credit to the HRRR and RAP for modeling some snow up here to I84. Canadian was not very good. EC decent.

Hi... I'm reluctant to buy into a big storm right now... IF NO PHASE between the northern and southern streams, then no big storm. Many members of the 12z/6 GEFS are running the northern stream short wave out ahead of the southern stream. That to me is out to sea and snow ice favored NC-Delmarva- s NJ. The mean trough on the GEFS would allow snow up here but concerned this 5H flow is going to look different come Friday (less high amplitude N/S- troughing). For now the EPS is meager, and WPC D6 qpf and winter wx are also meager. That can change but am thinking conservatively and not planning big up here.

Wantage Nj 740' MSL flurries...small flake. SB 856A.

Flurries into Mt Cobb PA exit 8 I84 act 2000 feet, under the radar scope bright band east of Scranton.

nw NJ-nePA-Orange County NY and Kinnelon-NYC-LI 9AM-3PM...a dusting to possibly 1.5". We're on the fringe here. The northern part of Sussex County, northern Pike County PA to Lords Valley and Mt Cobb PA on I84 as well as all of Orange County might escape with just some late morning flurries-uncertainty? my 2c on expectations.

Not thinking any thread for 1/11ish tonight...and if it starts tomorrow, probably hold off til dinner time. Mainly NC-Delmarva, at least until the Canadian joins the intermittent fray up here on LI.

MPING is back. Delete app and reacquire. Certificates expired this morning per mPING

Bashing is social media. Many bashers are self centered with little care how their words play. wonder what their families are like? That’s the cost of freedom. Just take something good out of it, maybe that they pay attention to the forecast.

fwiw... Flight aware showing what I see as at least 50-70% flights cancelled in and out of MKC and STL at this time. Not a huge storm but a long narrow one.

mPing? anyone know what's happening. Getting a response about impersonating. Did we have to reload it? fwiw... might have more flakes today in Wantage then we see tomorrow??? lots of fluffy flakes coming down... been off and on the past 3 days but today is the best yet.

Seasonal since 11/20 via CoCoRaHs obs: If interested click for clarity.

Just have to wait it out... I think we'll be seeing 12-15-1 ratios on whatever we get that is more than .05 melted, in part due to banding. The banding graphics will post around 1P (if I have time-3 year old running around Opa=Grandpa in Dutch). Thank for very much your compliments! Many good-excellent posters herein, observers of the guidances and their nuances. I don't post elsewhere except on my FB group, due to the overall good history with AMWX since my BOX days, plus I don't like the insta-dissapear posts elsewhere-- I like to look back and take my words to be reasonably accurate with perspective and try to act responsibly, more so than even in my later NWS days. The Discord platform transition 2 years ago basically set me aside from sharing on 33andrain, but do know it too is valuable for interested community. I just did not like the Discord process, in part cause I couldn't follow events very well. I'll stay here til the NWS gets out there, like NHC, on getting the message out clearly and well advance- out to 7 days in each office Then I'm done and can sleep in. For now, I think the NWS is too steeped in it's own messaging imitations and is not simply and effectively communicating beyond 3 days. it just isn't. Guidance has outstripped the process. Just my opinion. Change for NWS will be driven by outside forces.... internally it is too conservative. Again, my opinion but I would not be welcomed back- I do live with that, even though I'm human and like to be wanted. I would not fit their process. Let's see how things evolve tomorrow... will this be the first measurable of January in CP.

I like the JM observation on HRRR especially valuable inside of 24 hours, but somewhat speculative maybe too amped beyond 24 hours. I think that is true..added the Philly area qpf and snowfall about 48 hours ago... HRRR and HREF too amped. RDPS too far south and so it was less. There was thunder in the DC area with that 48 hours ago event (late Friday afternoon). Here's the resultant qpf and snowfall per CoCoRaHs.

Letting it play out... fringe at most I80 north.

Not starting 1/10-11 thread till tomorrow is nearly done. Canadian is not buying it. It also is the one model pretty far south on this one. Maybe another behind it 17-20 with another shot of cold in between those two opportunities.

I think strong isentropic lift with sw jet at 7H/8H in the Virginia's with 8H trying to form a low in PA-NJ by 00z/7. The mesoscale models are holding onto the trough structure longer as we come toward T0 (Monday)... so presuming it has the upper low right in the OV, it wont disappear as fast as modeled-mushed by the globals. There wont be much northerly BL flow into the system prior to its arrival on the 6th so dry air advection I dont think is a player. It has basically what is out there now, a 15-20 degree T/Td spread. It will take awhile for snow aloft in any CSI Band to work down to the ground up here around I80. There may be some small ocean effect contribution along the NJ coast? I have to think the globals will drift north tomorrow... or I've interpreted wrong. First thing I have to see is there Canadian come way north. Just not what I expected from the Canadian (GDPS-RGEM). For now I think it the southerly outlier. That's it for me tonight. Thanks for the MDL NBM reply.

Watch the 18z EC and 00z/5 global models. Either the globals are too far south or you'll see a sudden shift north by 30-60 miles. I am seeing too many members trying to hook northeast at 5H up into NYS-CT. The 21z RAP continues its northward trend. Bothersome. Wouldn't take much for the confluence zone to shift north past I84. WPC and WFO's have all the guidance, more than what I'm seeing but something is going to eve to change south in the short term mesoscale models (ALA the oddly south Canadian) or the globals will be bleeding north in the next cycle or two. We'll know more by morning. Globals suppressed vs mesoscale modeling now. Compromise? I'll check the HSD and QPFPMD but I continue to think a little snow throughput NJ-LI til I see the mesoscale models move south from the 18z modeling.

I've notified Pivatol Weather via email regarding the qpf snowfall disconnect.

CTP and PHI hold the watch til at least one more forecast cycle. Guessing LWX will warn but unsure...still nothing from them at 346PM but they may be coordinating with partners, writing up whatever. No matter what happens Philly-DCA Monday, I think those cities and in-between I dont want to be trying to drive in a timely fashion and get to work that for most of us could easily hold off a day.

There's going to be a horrendous bust for the 18z NAM, 18z HRRR and 15z RAP, all having snow up here to varying degrees if the 12z/4 NAEFS nil prevails on I80. Still interesting and I'll leave it to you all and the WFO's to wrestle with final numbers. If I may add: looks a little ocean effect contribution possible Monmouth south Monday per model soundings of -7C over water plus 7C. GFS most variable for that with too much new flow on 12z/4 EC and CMC.

Regarding 1/10-11 potential event up here... I'm good with it NC/VA maybe Delmarva? I still have trouble with it getting up here. Could be wrong. I've attached 12z/4 5H ensemble picture for 1/7 00z and 1/11. Am staying away from any thread for 1/10-11 til we get 1/6 started. I kind of want to get through this first nearby event before trying to tackle another snow threat for CP and let a couple more days of modeling play. EPS still kind of dry here the next 10-14 days at our I80 latitude.

Hi everyone... I'm going to let the rest of this play out... we're fringe I80 north... how much I'll leave it to WFO Phi and OKX, as well as yourselves too decide. I may post some of the guidance one in a while. I have no stake... just that this is an event of sorts Monday and use D8 lead time errors help inform the future. I will track SREF, NAM, HRRR and RAP 51 hr trends and Banding links from WPC and FSU. This is just the start of a a wintry January... maybe more cold than snow with respect to normal? Watch the wind Tue and Thu and wind chill. I've got my propane heat on hold at 69 now to prevent pipe outside edge of the laundry room from freezing in continuously at or below 30F temps the next 7 days in Wantage NJ. This kind of cold can push infrastructure problems...its not extreme but water main breaks and fires are my concern.

I think so... If you go back to p1 and see the south shift since 12/30... it should inform those that plaster the page with D8 snowfall, how large an error can occur.

If it goes away on the se 12z/4 and 18z/4 runs...then I have to think its over. Overall pattern to me continues to shove north into our area at times 10A-10P. imo, think its best to keep projections stable til we KNOW for sure it wont happen and just wave it off and not worry anymore about the northern extent. I like the GFS banding signal. That will be something to watch these next 2 days. WPC also has a nice banding program but limited to 48 hours.

720A/4 edited the title to limit event to the 6th and dropped the ice pellet tag. The event has at least held onto the 6h for timing since the initial Dec 30 post, but the max axis in PA-NJ has shifted south about 150 miles since the post started 6 days ago. That is worthy of keeping in mind when posting threads 6 days in advance... limits confidence of occurrence. A positive note the accuracy of the D7 WPC chance of 1/4" frozen in the Ohio Valley!