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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Negate should read. Gently
  2. wdrag
    Can’t hope. Just have to work the ensemble pattern and negate smoothing out the cyclic changes. No one has promised more than 1 NYC
  3. wdrag
    Too tough for me. Guess 1-4 for a start. Just no lock. May not know til Friday afternoon
  4. wdrag
    fwiw: BOM has a solid 6-14" inland from I95 for our subforum and by 00z/11 about 4" total qpf. These are significant events coming.. how they play? Don's good severity post will need followup... preferably 530P when all the NWS office collaborative data has been meshed. Cant post again til tonight--- hoping these next two cycles stay the course and don't abruptly corrupt.
  5. wdrag
    Don: could post on severity index. Go for it on updating. I won't recheck til tonight but the probs are up to 40% moderate impact just inland from I95. There will be fluctuations on axis but the I think WPC has defined this reasonably well. I like 5-10 spotty higher in their blues, but we have yet to account for mid level warming...so patience. LI just seems a little warm to me but I could be wrong. For now I think heaviest snow west of I95 and lets hope something sticks in CP. For sure an event is coming, imo (95% chance).
  6. wdrag
    well done imo. We'll see what happens. Tomorrow (2nd) will be D5 for the EC. I still am leery of much snow NYC/LI--- I could easily be wrong. I'm just not confident of PTYPE with general 1000-500 thickness over 540. I may not be able to post again til Tuesday night.
  7. wdrag
    yes, I agree... the only thing I can't count on yet is 8-12 Lehigh Valley... yes on the equiv qpf but am unsure on all snow there. I just checked... 19z BOM is hanging tough on 4-7"axis e PA though NNJ n of I80 to CT and qpf by 00z/1 1of 3-4". We'll see if the magnitudes hold. I wasn't too keen on that AFD. You need to offer guidance for preparations. NHC is ahead of our forecast offices by and large on doing that (my opinion only but not necessarily shared by many) and if we go back to the CPC outlook from last Friday that was posted here... they too offered some info for people who need to think about options (8--12 days in advance, including my own personal work life snow/wind/flooding rains- I work for the county inspecting Guiderails, drain pipes, bridges etc)). A forecaster arbitrarily capping a pop is overriding national center guidance which is 88% for NYC. That sitting on the fence forecast for D6 is eventually going to get AI'd out... models are getting better. I'd say capping a pop is more reasonable when you're on the gradient of much to nil. One of those POPS Sagt night or Sunday has to be higher than 50%. For now, we in the NYC subforum continue in the max storminess axis. Yes this could change... but the longer we stay in this axis, the less chance for a miss. Now its a matter of communicating concerns. There's always a chance of failure but my own choice is try to ballpark potential well in advance, especially if BOM/multi ensemble support. 18z/1 EPS is almost identical to the 12z... if anything slightly flatter with a decent short wave and strong 5H LF quad with jet out across there Carolinas and signs of RRQ support south of Nova Scotia with an 850 low edging ever further north but forming from NJ- eastward. The GEFS is now much sharper and unless the models flatten out in future cycles, I find it hard to believe we will avoid a significant precip event. It's FAST... most of it out of here by 12 or 15z Sunday which means most of this event is 12-18 hours (I think). Failure can occur. I sort of think, if its going to fail, the models will have to make an abrupt shift January 2nd cycles (just like the pre Christmas storm last year when the EC suddenly went inside runner around D6 and stayed there and wiped out a snow event).
  8. wdrag
    Just need to hold all of us accountable. I can't add anything more than what is within the thread. Models are good, but not that good on ptype. When we use 10-1, that's outdated methodology that doesn't really properly baseline accumulation. I always start with positive snow depth change. If you have sleet.... that inflates snow totals considerably. 10 to 1 or Kuchera might be good to communicate when we get within 3 days or so, and you know no mix and temps aob 32 at the surface throughout. Positive snow depth change doesn't do so well, imo, in these 33-34F nighttime heavy wet snows when the snow overcomes melting processes.
  9. wdrag
    Very good post. It’s a matter of reality. Thank you. I think folks need to be aware of potential if it’s multi ensembled. I just saw CPC 6-14 day and they hammer biggest rains south jersey to va.
  10. wdrag
    Agree 100%. While reality has not occurred... if this general modeling continues through both storms... this will be a memorable pair of events, NOT THE WORST but for January will rank as significant I think this more of a spring setup. We cant forget wind and coastal flooding. If the first one misses to our south, then the above paragraph is misleading.
  11. wdrag
    I am in agreement with you. If we are to suppress big time, I think we'll know at this time tomorrow. Models are improving D5 in and few major debacles that I recall. Anyone can refresh me on debacles since 2022 inside 5 days. Stuff I look at: 13z BOM rainfall through the 10th... VERY large but the 4" probably will shrink to 3. IF NOT, widespread moderate flooding would be my concern 10th-11th after the basic qpfs are done. BOM snowfall through Sunday eve. This is NWS base. BOM includes percentages of models and ensembles. I added one frequent flooder in NJ, but to give an idea what NWS uses for longer range til reality qpf hits the basin. This is for NAEFS 2.5" 4th-10th.
  12. wdrag
    A couple things: Added WPC 17z met expert desk on winter wx. They aren't perfect but they have tools we dont and faster. Also, I see a lot of references to big busts in the past. I think modeling has generally improved since 2020. Maybe this is another but odds are against a 1/2"+ qpf miss I84 south. Ptype another story. The 16z WPC QPF was probably made before GEFS 12z qpf... but now when you take the remaining ensembles from CMCE and probably the EPS...they have this more or less right in their 12z products. Also the thread was written for two storms... inclusive of large qpf by 00z/11 2-iso 6", potential for damaging wind and a snow event possibility to track. I dont think we said NYC would get heavy snow but we have members in CT/NJe PA that are interested. If I were to write thread for only NYC... much less often.
  13. wdrag
    fwiw...new 12z WPC qpf... similar to previous for Sunday. I do see all the discussion on suppression so will wait this out. Ensembles I think are best for now with the caution that the suppressed solution could win out. New D6 winter wx not available for a while.
  14. wdrag
    For the 2m temps this far in advance suggest staying ensembles, which are all available in Trop Tidbits. All suggest above freezing to I80 in NJ and up to coastal CT. That mans the fringe temp transition near 33F is wet snow, provided cold enough above the BL. Just too far in advance except as pre prev ensemble posts and NBE. I would not count on much accum NYC... I can live with 1-3 for now.
  15. wdrag
    I like the sloppy 1-3"LI/NYC... that definitely appears more likely to me since the 06Z/EPS while slightly less amplified, is faster and certainly permits qpf up here... Here's the EPS 850MB at 144 hours and the EPS snow depth change. Provided the EPS does not flatten out much from the 06z/1 cycle as we go into the event, then we'll do well. The 06z GEFS looks sharper...all modeling faster. My guess this is a Sat night-Sunday event. Click images for clarity. The 850 low is over Ches Bay at this 144 hr image.
  16. wdrag
    Always concerned about how good it looks for snow this far out. The GEFS in the past 24 hours is showing a slightly sharpening of the causative short wave -- that still is troublingly far south. The EPS however (as opposed to the 00z/1 op we saw) is showing a negative tilt short wave and strengthening trend since 12 hours ago. It validates the ensemble chance of 3+ by the NWS shown in.darker green, and 4+ by the EPS, and note the blend of models (07z/1 version) for both storms. Things will change... I dont know how but there is little doubt in my mind that a 6+ axis will occur probably from the Virginias somewhere across PA. After that... I dont know. So the GEFS overall is the weakest in its ensembles. I think the 12z/2 modeling will be important, since by then global models will be pretty accurate on the upper air pattern with probably no major change in the 500MB after that. I95 eastward to the coast is my greatest area of uncertainty (ptype) as well as just north of I84 (northern fringe-suppression). Of interest is the likelihood that whatever wet snow occurs PA/NJ this c coming weekend, it gets washed away by next Wednesday the 10th. The rapid snowmelt and storm two qpf have me concerned about renewed flooding, all dependent on qpf at this stage. You dont want to see the BOM total qpf by 00z/11. It seems overall high but if occurred even 1" less, would mean river flooding compared to the more vigorous first event of a couple weeks. I just can't post it... it surprised me. Lets get storm one up here first. Also...coastal wind damage-power outage unknown risk for storm one DE/NJ/LI? and then storm two fairly extensive northeast USA around the 9th-10th? Power outages as well documented here is not an easy predictor but knowing of potential can be helpful. If interested, please click the image below for clarity.
  17. wdrag
    Caution to the wind: 12z GEFS/CMCE decreased qpf for the first event... less snow and the concern about a little less QPF event 1 The EPS on the other hand (I dont worship it)... has come up quite a bit.A ppended 12z/31 24 hour prob 4" of snow (10 to 1 ratio)... pretty large prob but not 100%. Just have to live a good life til whatever happens.
  18. wdrag
    Modeling: It's getting better if we can talk generalities a week in advance and be reasonably accurate. Still... two big storms within 3-4 days... not common around here, especially if snow. My caution is stick with ensembles. AND... please if you can... don't use 10-1 snowfall unless we're within 48 hours and you think it ill be all snow. We're better off using conservative numbers for our area (positive snow depth c change via Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal()...especially since so close to the r/s line. Warm thickness for the first storm has me worried about a narrow band of 6+ inch 32-33F wet snow - clinging to wires with power outages inland of I95 somewhere. just dont know where, if at all in our subforum. SST's are near normal today but warming along the coast from Wallops to Boston. So... it's at least a temporary enthusiastic opportunity, especially our I84 folks and maybe we can get some snow in the city.
  19. wdrag
    The above hopefully encapsulates the likelihood of two upcoming significant east coast storms. Changes will occur from the some of the attached supporting graphics but we're in line for more significant weather and I'm sort of concerned about flood potential. This time maybe wet snowfall NYC.? Please consider limiting NYC snow enthusiasm with the stats attached from Don, at least until we get Jan 4-5 (if snow is still in the possibilities). It is hoped the Bluewave produced lack of 2" snowfall at CP can be put to bed, but it's possible that next Sundays probable wintry event will shift a little more inland with rain dominating along the coast. The event for the 10th could be brief snow or ice to heavy rain and snow melt, presuming we accumulate anywhere close to the attached 00z/31 EPS prob of 4" axis. Wind damage graphic via the EPS for the 10th... expectations are more of an e-ne wind (nor'easter we hope) for the 7th with gust potential 40-50 MPH along the coast and maybe minor coastal flooding (tide cycles are LOW for this storm). The event around the 10th "may" have stronger winds gusts vicinity 60MPH along the coast and a better chance of coastal flooding (tide cycles 10" higher to start). Power outages possible but impossible to predict without 24 hour confidence on wind gusts/qpf amounts/ptype/temp if and when it snows. This thread was started since I think there is general interest in snow, also flood potential for this weather interested forum. I may comment once/day but it's all yours. OBS for the 6th-7th will go in here. For whatever occurs the 10th...may have to separate out the OBS in a supplemental thread late 9th, but that's 10 days away and at least a portion of these ensemble expectations may be less than out looked through the 00z/31 cycle and therefore less impact and more routine. No guarantees here but definitely worth monitoring. Edited title 1156AM-Jan 6 to include obs and tags added obs and sleet. Edited title 645 AM Jan 8 iso include OBS for Jan 9-10 and removed the ? behind damaging wind.
  20. wdrag
    Good morning, am constructing the Jan 6-10 thread... awaiting WPC D4-7 updated day shift snow prob graphics to attach along with their current D7 that now has 1.5" up to near Sandy Hook and also copying with permission I hope the Bluewave consecutive days with less than 2" of snow CP and the Don post on snow probs 1,2,4 for the various cities. I should have this ready for use, as poster desired. It will probably be loaded with actual reports as the two events progress. This then encourages posts prior to Jan 6, and after Jan 10 in the ongoing January thread. There will probably be another extensive event around Jan 13-14 but prefer to exclude form this thread which seems to be well handled by consensus in the ensembles. Hope to have ready by Noon.
  21. wdrag
    Excellent stats Don... I'd like to add this to the thread... if its okay with you. Keeps perspective on I95. Right now, probably can't get thread out til 11A. Walt
  22. wdrag
    Good morning all! A quick post. I plan to start a thread for the period Jan 6-10, probably around 10AM. That will encourage all posts for the last half of January to stay in January and we can concentrate energy on what I think will occur between the 6th-10th. That general idea follows with one graphic. Ensemble support for 2-6" of qpf in that period is in agreement for base 2" in the NYC subforum. Where its snow its 4+ but on I95 and east, messy or just rain? But stormy for sure. Good thing tides are down. Wind will be involved. You may want to go back to the CPC hazards posted this past Friday. Looks pretty good to me. My base info: Our very warm December will soon be replaced by snow plowing and shoveling across much of the region along and just west of I95 into the Appalachians. I will set the driveway snow stakes this week (nw NJ) I expect renewed flooding in parts of eastern PA/NJ and possibly elsewhere in the northeast. When all is said and done by Wednesday night January 10, at least two inches of water equivalent precipiation will have fallen along the entire east coast with isolated 6 inches. This means that snowfalls next weekend and possibly at the start of the warmer storm of the 10th, will at least partially melt. Here's the EPS chance of 4+" for next Sunday. Blues are above 30%. I think this is a pretty good signal for 7 days in advance. Where it actually ends up?? CMCE is about the same. GEFS is lagging.
  23. wdrag
    Just have to wait it out. EPS may be surprising for some NY eve-NYD? quite a short wave coming across PA. Already wet snow showers nw NJ-Sussex County. 4th---we're northern fringes on EPS and that's probably better than the Canadian but it does illustrate the potential for a confluence zone banding mid lvl snow I84. Jan 6-7 EPS is in here...biggest VA area. That low pressure system will be a producer..suspect half a foot eastern foothills (for now VA/NC-just my take, no one else). 10th-11th is a bigger potentially wintry to heavy rain event. EPS tends to be conservative and its much larger than the GEFS which is not helpful in recent threaded events. Disappointing winter model (has very little snow) and the NWS staple. Until the 7 day anomalies decrease to normal, I continue with the idea of plenty of action coming.. On suppression: if suppressed, then I would expect below normal temps... I dont see that coming though am aware Canada is not its normally cold self.
  24. wdrag
    No change from yesterday--- not too worried about suppression. Up here we're northern fringes for a while. My overall thinking based on ensembles (not individual single member op runs). Northeast USA from interior sections of NC-VA northward (mainly west of I95) : wintry options around Thursday January 4, next weekend January 6-7 and around January 10. For now playing this as there will be one event listed above, that produces an inch or more of snow for all of us (I95 or just west of I95) but which and where each system targets, too early for me but at least there are options on the table that could produce a plowable 4+" inch snow -- this latter impression is not a guarantee of widespread. The 1" I'm pretty confident of from NC/VA northward to Canada. How it plays and where each event targets the snow-ice vs rain is to be determined. As far as rainfall between 4th-14th--- another general 1-4" is a more than 50% chance for the I95 cities - it's an El Nino winter with a coastal storm track. The 4" rainfall potential probably has a better chance of verifying NC/GA but its within the realm of possibility up to NYC-BOS-Hartford and for snow lover's we hope not in ski-snow mobile country of the interior northeast. We've had enough rain... top 10 wettest December.
  25. wdrag
    I think we need to think about 1-4 events 4th-14th. I doubt if this goes down as less than normal qpf in the 4th-14th period. For now, largest might be 10th-11th, but modeling may change and I think at least two events that 10 day period, which in of itself is not abnormal. It's the qpf potential. CPC should have our consideration.
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