Jump to content

wdrag

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,409

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Read the 212A pmdepd. Interesting comment about EC (almost AI implication) that didn’t run. Unsure if that applies to this. Will check tonight but I see a pretty good polar overrunning boundary for powdery snow inland.
  2. wdrag
    If that's true... another reason to not post on X or any other platform where your impressions are swept away to not be checked-evaluated. Here... you're out there to be post examined. That is valuable for others to consider whether you have anything consistently reliable to contribute.
  3. wdrag
    I think one thing I important in all of our/my comments... willingness to acknowledge the unknown-uncertainty.
  4. wdrag
    I still stay with the idea of a snow event inland and coastal rain/snow mix... BUT... we need to see the EC-EPS start shifting west by tomorrow morning. Right now it's trend through the 06z/12 cycle is weaker and weaker. If the Euro scored... that would be huge. I'll be working today so you'll know how things are trending sooner than I. There could be a radical sudden EC-EPS shift in the next cycle 12z/12 or 00z/13 as I recall last Dec that took a snowstorm away from us by shifting to a CHICAG) storm. You may recall? IF no EC west shift, then I would think the GGEM/GFS would trend noticeably east. I just have to wait it out. I can't be sure if its superior EC initial analysis per Roger comment earlier in this thread or something else?
  5. wdrag
    The Canadian is my winter model of choice for big snow axis. Yes it can be wrong. I agree with Roger... the Euro is out on its own. So we/I have to make forecasts and can't worship one model as almighty. Odds are the EC will be too weak. Lets forget Feb ahead, and enjoy the extremes of winter storms that have been presented to us the first 20 days of January here in the eastern USA. Amazing how fast the power problems of Tuesday were resolved in the USA. Excellent work by the power companies! Kind of rough near BUF and MKC for the playoff games this weekend, unless they've been moved? For me, there is little doubt now that a widespread news making hazardous winter event will spread from the Ohio Valley across the I95 megalopolis but impacts still in doubt. I myself think widespread delays and cancels are coming. NYC-LI probably 1-3" of snow as I see it but could be wrong- rain factor as I buy the much closer to the coast scenario hooking onto the oncoming cold front dropping down Sunday-Monday. That's Don's stats and some of the modeling am seeing. I84: besides looking pretty good for a powdery snowfall Tuesday-early Wednesday, I like the RGEM idea of 1" of snow with a preceding cold frontal passage this Sunday. Timing of GEFS storm is a little slower than what I think will occur and storm focus should be, imo, 09z Tue-09z Wed. Uncertainty on timing. Adding a bunch of graphics.. btw: 06z GEFS even heavier than its 00z version. View these as ideas-NOT gospel. I like WPC dark green (30-49%) axis as the winter hazard concern. 06zGEFS positive snow depth through early Wednesday which includes the stuff from tonight through the weekend. The idea is show how extensive this will be south of 40N. The 24 hour prob 4" from the GEFS, CMCE and last the EC prob for 4" is lightest. CMCE surprisingly far east. I'll check back tonight. If the future Canadian loses it... then all this is for naught for me. I maintain in large scale synoptic situations here in the northeast...if the Canadian doesn't have it... its an unlikely event. Canadian ia slightly warmer model and you adjust the edges but it's a solid model. 00/12 NAEFS now taking a solid .4" qpf back ti the Delaware River.
  6. wdrag
    Don, I like stats... but these are depressing for NYC... when I keep reading these NYC stats... it's like it almost never snows in the city. I accept them as is and hoping we can expand the sample size soon. In the meantime, not sure if anyone noticed that Don is projecting a warmer than normal Jan... but only maybe about a degree or so above. The reason that is important... the first 11 days are averaging almost +5 in CP. That means some noticeably brrrr weather is coming to getnthat average down to only +1 or so. Will check back in the morning.
  7. wdrag
    Kind of gutsy no high wind watches NJ, e PA, e NYS LI. (I know I'm not that good at discerning 5 knots model bias too high). Could be just a few less power outages than Tuesday night but am pretty sure all offices will have some LSR's wind related. Between 9P-5A, I think we're going to see 45-50 knots at a number of metar sites from the Poconos through NJ LI (a 2 hour buffeting and I'm not counting on holding onto power) Looks to be slightly different areas getting hit this time... so maybe LI will stay below 45 kt, but am not counting on it. Will recheck tomorrow morning. I can't add any more now. I'll be looking at snow-sleet here in Sussex County of nw NJ around 5-7P tomorrow for an hour or 2, I think.
  8. wdrag
    Stage forecast from the ensembles which NERFC is following, has a higher crest this weekend on the Passaic.
  9. wdrag
    Quick check: I think the 12z EC op went off course and will be back. ALL ensembles have 1-2" snow for our entire subforum Tue-Tue night. Now time to hone in. I expect the EC to come back and am hoping the GGEM becomes steady heaviest axis I95 ish, cyclically. For now, good enough! A wintry event is coming for the entire NYC subforum... whether its beginning or end, or the entire event. You saw WPC had a 30-49% chance of >1/4" melted frozen entire megalopolis Tue-Tue night (stretches from DC to Nova Scotia) and I saw the prev update D3-7 hazard post earlier in this thread. I probably wont say much more except am hoping the 18z EPS 24 hr qpf increases again ending 138 hours.
  10. wdrag
    FOOTBALL: I haven't kept up with the Jan posts... so I hope this is not redundant. Brought this up as an interesting aside. Kansas City 8PM Sat... 2m temps approximately -3 and WCI -20 to -25 Buffalo: 1PM Sunday snow squalls possibly just north of Orchard Park... but big amounts. Heard talk of moving the game to CLE or maybe DET?
  11. wdrag
    In winter, as the last inland storm. CMC is I think the leader. I continue that now that we’re in real winter. That means at least some rain coast Will check back tonight sometime. Glad there is something to track
  12. wdrag
    Storm impacts possibly a little less than that of Tuesday night but am not convinced. Rainfall definitely less, but forces some of the small streams back into minor flood and the large mainstems - they may crest higher this weekend than what has already occurred. Wind: ensembles and various models slightly less but not convinced. Power outages develop west of the Apps and on the Apps ridges Friday afternoon then pockets of damaging wind in our area later Friday night. A touch of snow the first hour or two Poconos extreme nw NJ, Catskills-Litchfield Hills between 5 and 9PM Friday then the period of heavy rain.
  13. wdrag
    Good morning: one and done for me today on this event. Here's how I'm melding what Ive seen. What is said below is only my take... Next Monday -Tuesday the 15th-16th: Virginia to NYS and northern New England. A period of light snow possible Monday with an inch or less ,if it occurs, especially Philly Baltimore. Then a widespread snow event with delays-cancellations sometime Tuesday. Note: this disagrees with the current NWS outlook and is much heavier than the NWS proposed outcome---so what I say is not a lock. It is what I think will occur but I could be too heavy. Thinking the primary snowfall of more than 4" lies probably just west of I95 but even the big cities from DC-NYC-BOS will probably see some sort of snow accumulation-just too early for the big cities with potential for an ice-snow mix near I95. Modeling is showing consensus for an impact player. Axis unknown- this is my best guess. I use this for my own planning which means probably no work for me Monday-Wednesday next week because of MLK holiday and then snow covered outdoor infrastructure and unsafe for me. Temps Monday-Wednesday probably do not exceed freezing or barely above freezing from just northwest of I95 to Canada so the ground will be frozen again making it easier to accumulate despite treatments.
  14. wdrag
    Attached are two 24 hour EPS graphics from the 12z/10 cycle that are significant for D6-7. The CMCE and GEFS are much less of snow risk for the northeast USA, so far. This thread is started because of the several consecutive cycles, although variable placement, EPS persistent snow threat for the I84 or I95 corridor, and it's possible snowfall outcome for NYC. Also is attached the 19z/10n Blend of Models from the NWS as a sketchy idea for I95. Reminders: The CMCE and GEFS are weak with the snow risk. Tags may be adjusted in a few days as it becomes clear whether our NYC subforum only gets a short period of snow/flurries in the wake of a strong windy cold frontal passage with single number-teens wind chill by Wednesday morning, or we realize a nice coastal wave of low pressure that produces hazardous wintry weather for the majority of the NYC subforum, then followed by a shot of the wind driven cold. This system is not as clear cut at D6-7 as previous storm threads in Dec-Jan, so uncertainty exists. [Typo on headline Thread. updated 854PM/10]
  15. wdrag
    I'll get the thread up for 1/15-16 snow event, I95 west NC to BOS,,,,, possibly including NYC and LI. 12Z EPS is quite strong, CMCE came up, GEFS is missing this one I think. Despite the GEFS miss, 12z NAEFS (GEFS-CMCE blend) now has at least 0.2" outlooked I95 east. WPC followed suit. Just have some family stuff prior to the starter thread. Attached a prob of 4" for 24 hours from EPS ending 12z/17.
  16. wdrag
    Will review again and at 8pm will probably start a thread. Just need a little more time to review. Have a day
  17. wdrag
    OKX max gust reports herein. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/windpns2.pdf PHI max gust reports herein. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi Attached CoCoRaHs rainfall reports and snowfall reports. CP had 1.95" the two storms total 2.6". ABE two storms total near 3.39" This above does it for me... hopefully most here found this thread some fun. Hopefully more of a wintry fun develops for NYC-LI before spring.
  18. wdrag
    On next week: I'm thinking best cols shots AFTER Jan 15-16, and Jan 18-20 events. I think the cutter threat for next week is less likely than what has. been modeled for this week. It will take quite some sharpening of the ensemble 5H and imo, its a somewhat more positively tilted trough initially that may go neutral by the 16th. That permits more of a I95 track than inland. The 06z/10 EPS continues developing an Ohio Valley to northeast USA snow risk and ice on the se edge. I am waiting out ensemble developments for the 12z and 18z cycles before any thread but I am pretty sure a hazardous wintry event requiring road treatments will be needed later Monday or Tuesday morning as more gusty cold air pours in on the back side of whatever occurs, I95 or just west with snow max I84? Also, ensembles have the jet primarily south of 40N through a least the 24th, meaning a difficult time to get big persistent warmer than normal up here to NYC prior to the 24th.
  19. wdrag
    Example of ensembles Passaic mainstream at Pine Brook with the 1" rain raising the river stage even higher this weekend,
  20. wdrag
    So, Some customers in NJ, PA, NYS: power, I can see problems for a few customers having no power into next Monday the 15th, because of renewed power outages Fri night, and the weekend west winds will be 5-10 MPH more blustery than what we see today (near 40 MPH) gusts here and there today.
  21. wdrag
    This continues more or less as outlined with small variations and generally less rain but that rain pushes some of the mainstream rivers into potentially higher stages. another nighttime potent event.
  22. wdrag
    Mon-Tue: not threading til 6P, if then. I'm pretty sure we'll have light-moderate event that will include snow/ice I84 corridor, possibly down to I95 with LI problematic and for now mostly wet there with only a touch of snow sleet. EPS backed off slightly and the GEFS-CMCE dont want to increase snow accum and the NAEFS is east of us. So, best to wait through at least the 12z/10 cycle, possibly beyond. Also looking at Jan 18-20 and Jan 24 for a possibly colder snowier event-again light to moderate but NYC/LI confidence on 1"+ snow is uncertain and NAEFS again too our south and east with the qpf on both, for now. Just have to wait and ride out this Friday night-Sat and cleanup some debris both from this one today and then again this weekend.
  23. wdrag
    Well, I was worried, LI wouldn't produce decent wind but it did. Since about 1AM the following gusts 50 knots. KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KHWV: Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY, United States [55kt, 28m/s] KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [50kt, 26m/s] I'll await OKX max gust report when they get settled and have enough staff to generate it.
  24. wdrag
    NJ 42,000 meters out and climbing pretty fast... Here's a map.
  25. wdrag
    I agree...same in Wantage...power flickering and Sussex Rural has outages Lake Pochung and Highland Lakes. Rough storm. Anyone using radar scope... I think the DIXstorm total that I saw at 830PM looks very good when comparing with NJ climate rainfall for NJ. Big boy event. Keep yourself calm as things go downhill,
×
×
  • Create New...