wdrag

No thread yet--- not at tipping point for a 60% or greater moderate impact worthy forum event. WPC increased their qpf overnight. GFS and CMC modeling more ominous and even the 5H westward EC suite putting us on the edge but for now, all obs-disc can remain here. Will rereview late today-don't want to overstate. This will have travel impact here...certainly late Thu-early Fri and those who have to be somewhere on time might consider possible adjustments if below comes to fruition. To me... looks like minimum 1/2- maximum 3" rain event with max coastal gust 45-55 MPH late Thu-early Fri when it should be at its worst here w associated leafed tree breakage inducing power outages. Minor coastal flooding possible Thu afternoon or Fri morning high tide cycle but first quarter lunar cycle is not favorable for easier flooding.. Max 2-3" rainfall axis could still split the forum to the west and east but for now the target is as WPC has it... I95 eastward and so if all goes well-beneficially- we'll see October rainfall end up within 1/2" of normal... somewhere between 3.3-4.3"--thats a guess that sides with the WPC 09z rainfall forecast. Noting CP October rainfall is 0.4" above all other OKX Climate sites. Will check in late today--have a good day.

NO thread before tomorrow morning. Surprisingly WPC DECREASED the expected rainfall in its afternoon forecast. Yet...all 12z ensemble models are same or increased amounts with CMCE leading the way. Could be routine less than 1" event... I think more than that due to likely southern track scoop, 150M 12 hr HFC passing across PA and a pretty strong 5H jet. Have to go with what will work best for the outcome which is modeled with varying solutions. Waiting it out. Maybe tomorrow morning at 630A... could end up <1" but I thiink significantly more for a part of the forum with wind 50+ for a 6 hr period Thu or early Fri. Patience and model watching...

On modeling while awaiting a hayride return.., imo ballon launches help confirm but imo, satellite,aircraft . Radar all contribute to improved modeling. We wouldn’t have had a clue in the 20th century. Modeling is pretty darn good and is the reason threads are startednonce some sort mood reliable agreement is reached. We evaluate the threads once started. Today’s D5 is reliable telling you whether something significant will happen. We on this forum have a difference of opinion. Model sensitivity to theNew England trough is part of the problem.? Others in NWS can explain

Am in the midst of Halloween fun for my 3 year old granddaughter. My goal is to review the 12z EC/ECAI and then get going on a threat either 5-6P or after 830P. 12z GS ballistic like the prior EC, even more so. So, need to step back and fully assess late today. Seemingly a moderate impact player ahead for Thu-Fri (rain/wind/power and minor CF). Note some modeling starts showery rains Tuesday.

If a thread creates, it wont be until at least 6PM.. family considerations. I might post a one liner that one is coming, prior to 6P. Lot's of solution spread and that's why the ensembles are so timid. I am pretty sure the ensembles are too weak.

fwiw...Nov thread is up with no nuance from me.

06z EC 6 hr max G over 60MPH near NYC-NNJ coast. long ways to go but the jet features argue for a moderate impact event Wednesday night-Thursday. EC upper level difference is large. Lack of ML CAPE limits potential for SVR but if modeling continues this is going to be an impact event. No thread - just reviewing for. 12 HOUR primary event Thursday.

6z/25 EC and ECAI 5H at the same time - 102 hours out... note the huge difference in the ops at D4 off the east coast-New England-Great Lakes. Long ways to go to resolve what will happen.

Good Saturday morning all. Beneficial rain is coming 10/29-31, along w a short period of wind gusts on the coast near 50 with associated spotty power outages, and then behind the the system widespread gusts 40 MPH around 10/31 or 11/1. Rainfall still uncertain but certainly more than 1/2" and a couple climate sites may exceed normal monthly totals with potential for near 3". Target for the heaviest rain uncertain but modeling is coming into more agreement. One thing to note... yesterdays 18z GFS had nil but its ensembles about 1" in NYC. Also, fwiw, the ensembles have so much spread that they are comparatively timid in comparison to the OPS rain and wind production. Despite tides astronomically modest, I think there could be a period of minor tidal flooding. Right now not quite as fierce as the prior (10/12-13) thread, so no new event thread, as yet.

Added CPC's Oct 16 outlook.

Not threading unless today's varied 00z/24 ensemble guidance coalesces into stronger wind, and certainly heavier than the early morning 0902z/24 WPC 7 day outlook. Still time for stronger but a day of ensemble cycle trends have weakened the potential for a closed low across PA/NJ--the GEFS now the outlier strongest. Beneficial rain coming with gusts 40 MPH 10/28-10/31. Results: attempts to raise monthly rainfall closer to October normal, isolated power outages possible and minor coastal flooding likely due to days of onshore flow, building waves and surge of at least a foot at high tide. Should the future ensemble evolution grow into something more than minor impact, will thread but for now...not. Will recheck late today.

18z EPS AI flat, sort of like 12z EPS. That wont produce a thread. just have to wait this out.

Good afternoon everyone, Self - caution. Use your own interp. Some time before any thread on a possible (in my mind probable) 1-3" rain event with a brief period of power outage fully leafed tree power outages on the coast and even isolated slight R# eddy transfer 40-45 MPH gusts inland beneath the potential 850 MB se 60 kt jet on the 30th. That rainfall if it occurs (it can still end up less than 1" for us with the bigger heavy rain in New England), will bring most if not all OKX climate sites close to normal monthly totals. So... another cycle or two of ensembles before committing. ECAI hopefully is on the right track as its been steadiest. Of interest is the 06z ECAI distant Melissa 850mb inflow feed but outlier long shot at this point. FOLLOW NHC. I plan to start the November thread sometime this weekend after a look see on how fast this Canadian block breaks down week two or beyond. A period of wet snow or snow shower-rain showers seems to be in the offing (suggestion via modeled by some ensembles) for I84 high terrain sometime the first 7 to 10 days of November due to the repeated digging of Canadian short waves. Waiting til the weekend to start November.

YES... CPC this afternoon continues MDT RISK heavy rain our area. IF I had to make a decision at 5PM today, I would not thread. Too much uncertainty on anything more than 1/4". Upper 5H low needs to form and capture the sfc low. northward along the coast......sometimes this occurs too late. D7 WPC qpf this afternoon is a good start. The CPC 3PM/22 discussion below supports the attached graphic... MDT Risk in my opinion also implies a risk of a miss to the east. The discussion below to the attached graphic. As the troughing moves further east, frontal activity and possible surface low pressure are predicted to bring increased precipitation chances to the East. The forecast is further complicated by the evolution of Tropical Storm Melissa, currently over the Caribbean. Individual ensemble members from the GEFS and ECENS vary greatly with Melissa, with a more west-based track currently more favored in the ECENS. Slower solutions are concerning given the possibility for more frontal interaction with the upstream trough. Today's ECENS and deterministic ECMWF solutions have trended more to the east compared to yesterday showing enhanced precipitation across the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. While the uncalibrated ECENS indicates at least a 40 percent chance of day 8-10 (Oct 30-Nov 1) precipitation totals exceeding 1-inch over these areas, the GEFS generally keeps chances closer to 20 percent. While uncertainty remains high in regards to the exact evolution, especially in regards to any tropical cyclone interaction, a moderate risk for heavy precipitation remains highlighted across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Oct 30-31 considering the timing includes Halloween and potential for adverse impacts to outdoor events. A slight risk of heavy precipitation continues through Nov 1, with the slight risk of high winds extending across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic through Nov 1.

ECAI - 12z version continues as previously 10/29-30... almost 2" in NNJ. LOOOOONG ways off and best to play it conservative. 12z once cycle trend on non event GFS/CMC is decidedly north! One cycle D7-8-9. What it does do-lends more truth to the independent CPC perspective yesterday as well as EPS suites... even if those suites are 50% too wet. May? be starting a thread tomorrow afternoon for enough rain to raise Oct amounts to normal or above by 10/31 and a period of gusty e winds 45-55 MPH on the coasts. Some sort of rain-wind event seems to be coming Oct 28-31.

Conversation on ensembles and rainfall brings me to this... Our reservoir levels, I think, are within tolerance, considering the drier 12 months period of I guess roughly 5-10" below normal. Yet NYC reservoir only 6% below normal. The ET and water balance maps are added here to show at least in my mind, where all the parameters are met for objective analysis (including solar radiation)... much less concern, in my mind, for drought up here. Note the positive balance up here vs the drought in TEX. Spring summer are critical here... spring for the typical prescribed burn wildfires in s NJ, and then growing season for farmers. Arguments for rainfall can be made for fall color as well as other concerns (bugs etc) Anyway... if we go another 12 months significantly below normal rainfall...especially next spring-summer, then my concerns are heightened.

In my opinion this above is misleading. EPS and EPSAI for 10/28-31 are substantial... in addition the modeling shown here is Operational. Operationals are not the most likely solution... one member of many. The two event rainfall ending this morning compare to the ensembled EPS two day event as shown below. Imperfect but reasonable. That's a short 84 hour compare. I cant go back further on the EPS. In this case, the first event was less than modeled, the second more. Modeling tracking differences occur, but the forecaster community does not rely on operationals for overall decision making. I corrected the 10/18 12z EPS to extend to 12z/22. same idea.

Also...Canadian block continues through the first week of Nov, and maybe we evolve to a positive PNA by Nov 5???

Good morning all, It is a good morning if we can partake in this forum... Widespread beneficial rainfall occurred overnight...into dawn, generally 0.2 to as much as 0.6, from what I can tell. The additional rain we didnt get Sunday night... Regarding what I think are errant 00z/22 CMCE and GEFS runs, the EPS and EPS AI continue on the path of a beneficial 1/4"-2" rainfall for our entire subforum around 10/29-30 or possibly split events 10/29-30 and 11/2-3. No thread on October rainfall equal or exceeding October norm due to very large disagreement between global ensembles. If the ECAI backs off the next couple days then I have to accept a rare win for the GEFS. I'm still always looking at CMCE but in my mind, it hasn't performed very well this year, especially beyond 24 hours. For now, I anticipate modeling to gradually migrate to a northwestward shift and back to the CPC 10/21 3PM moderate risk of heavy rainfall for the entire mid Atlantic coast 10/29-31 Also, all ensemble modeling is offering the first seasonal coatings of snow to the higher terrains of upstate NY and New England. Head into the storm with a steady hand until consistent cyclic evidence directs a change of course (drier).

Yellow on. radar scope is moderate rain for sure. .01 in this part of Wantage so far.

Continues this morning with the 00z/21 EPS much deeper at 5H than the 00z GEFS, but the 06z GEFS has deepened bug not yet responsive at the surface and resultant rainfall. No thread yet, dependent on la/lo of sfc low and its gradient. It will rain in that period, seemingly Oct 29-30 and may bring October monthly to normal. Too early for me on a thread. EPS twice as much qpf than the GEFS and CMCE so not a lock on a strong system.

Overdone EC/EPS late last week for this morning in terms of SE BL inflow and associated rainfall... Block continues into November, even in its weakened state in early Nov. sometime between Oct 28-Nov 3 maybe something pretty strong? No promises and not self evident in the ops. Am back from this past weekend near CMH with bumpy flight return last evening in OH/PA. Indian marriage celebration... pretty cool.

From the past two mornings partially reiterated: No chatter yet on the impact of the block - a block that would be helpful for wintry weather in winter. The block lasts at least through October and now seemingly the first week of November?. I didn't carefully check whether ensemble modeling nailed this 5H blocking, October 1 or earlier? EPS did not have it very well at all for late October. Anyway, while the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month. That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms. Cyclically since at least this past Wednesday, the ECMWF OP CF has a squall line of scattered 45-60 MPH gusts Monday morning, with differing target areas in NJ/e PA/srn NYS. Could be a few power outages/branches down. May not be able to thread in advance but be alert. Bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains for our subforum Mon-Tue. Saw the drought monitor and you've seen subsequent discussion. I did review the 10 min video provided but not the hour long-yet.

Als, ifs anyone is checking... 06z EPS vs GEFS starkly different on digging short wave trough Sun-Monday. Is the EPS far too amped? Think this may be worth keeping an eye on.

Hi Matt, I appreciate your honesty! Therefore the thanks for your post. I am now a little more concerned about process. Seems to me this is human interpretation of objective data sets, of which I'm still unclear and can't find that listed in the drought monitor. I like objectivity supplemented with observed impact truths. River flows, reports from reservoirs, farmers, and evaporattion rates. I think there is a brand new graphic available somewhere on evapotranspiration. Any link? Also concerned about overall transparency but that ties with everything in life. Drought here in nw NJ seems to be relatively superficial... when considering acquire recharge. I'm Unskilled at this but not sure what this attached map suggests today. I think those on this forum very much appreciate your shares