wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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So did Wantage. Meso models had it
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Wow and thank you very much Don!
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Thanks Don on HREF, I'm uncomfortable with the 330PM NWS reaching top end of all the ranges... however we will have some decent dendrites at times per multimodel check of omega in the DGZ at Sparta. I don't rate it excellent for nw NJ but anyway...there will be banding for s LI, central and s NJ. I had 0.1" in Wantage with my Noonish light snow. Max T 26.6..so we will have a slippery problem tomorrow and a good refreshing new snow cover, whatever it is. NWS snow probs for over an inch in NYC are about 85%. I'm adding the new probs for 2+. Note... if we get lucky, CP will end this record streak of no 2" in a day, on 1/19/24. Someone may want to refresh that record for us. Again..this thread will work for OBS as well.
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Don, don’t these PMM’s look too high for the HREF? Something seems in error
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Am aware am on the wrong thread for 19th. Was just trying to respond to a comment. Am off this thread and u likely participant much of the day
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Everyone should be thrilled with the 12Z HRRR. Hope the 12zNA’M and RDPS follow suit.
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? not certain...I think a little less. Need to respect that RGEM/HRDPS trending DOWN. I think PHI has it pretty good. SREF still north along I80 for 3-5" so am not certain but just enjoy 2+ there for starters and the rest is gravy, if there is more it is nicer. This snow is a nice complementary refresher to what we received on Tuesday. Am off line til tonight.
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My only comment: The GFS/EC were significantly underdone on qpf the 16th (ice and flake size compromised reported snow amounts, but absolutely no question those globals we're under done for there 16th-the data is in the 16th thread). If it was only the globals that were reliable, then no need for high res, which can be overamped but also can be a bit more reliable. Also on the dry air... eating up snow I80 north... could be, but if it snows a touch north of I80 midday today and near I80 this evening-some modeling has this, then the more dynamic event tomorrow should be able to produce hazardous snowfall of your choice amounts (frozen ground in our NYC subforum and road treatments will be necessary I think in this Drive Carefully event. I think I'll go to work today and not worry.
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It was disorganized. This attached is the final rendition of satellite and observed. Therre is 3-4" near Toms River, but also bordering Sussex County into northeast PA and fairly extensive 4-6" IPT-BGM-Oneanta. So, it wasn't a good modeling effort nw NJ/se NYS nw CT... However, impact was pretty significant due to 20-25F temps there, even yesterday morning delays due to leftovers. Modeling wasn't excellent there, but skunked--- me was more so disappointed in expectation unrealized. Not all Canadian modeling will be excellent but it had the idea... further west on decent snow AND ice. Only the NAM and HRRR joined. Flake size had something to do with this... densely covered. No grass blades here. I saw some comments that the Canadian missed this 19th event (erratic)... I think NOT. It initially targeted PA-NJ (00Z/12) and it has continued, but lowering the initial outlook, whereas EC-EPS has been near PHL All one has to do is go back to the trop tidbits and select hour 00z/12 cycle, 24 hour 10-1 SLR ending 06z/20, and then advance next cycle after cycle. I kind of like its peg that NYC subforum would be involved with snow action (hence the 18th thread after 2 cycles at 0015z/13). "GFS didnt pick up til 06z/13 and only recently settled in". For me, if the Canadian doesn't have it... better call it chancy at best. Thanks for the opportunity. I'll donate to AMWX soon, for just having had the opportunity to comment all these years.
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This SPC HREF was errant on the 16th west of I95. I did not buy into it today though I wish cast it. I think conservative is a more likely scenario 24 hours in advance. I appended the NWS 4AM/18 ensemble chance of 2" and 4" snow. Color bar has the probs.
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On topic: This ensemble machine only guidance was available to the NWS at press time for their mid afternoon products. (1955z) prob for 2+, and 4+. Axis tends to focus PA/NJ-LI-LI Sound. Unlikely that the axis misses snowfall though amounts can always be questioned. It's the gradient edge where large differences-busts can occur. Event now about 36-40 hours away from beginning. This thread will serve as event OBS-nowcasts, whatever develops. Am off line til Thursday. 646P/17
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yesterday had known ice involved? That could be a difference. NWS trigger for advisory I think is higher than 1-3".
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Spotchecked the 18z/17 GFS and NAM OP cycles for omega in dendrite growth zone (DGZ). Both models offer more than what I saw for the 16th event. I think there is legitimate hope for more than 10 to 1 ratios for whatever qpf occurs. Not saying an inch an hour but I think we can get some 3/4S- with bigger flakes than the 16th. Ensembles: 15z/17 SREF continues pretty heavy, probably linked to the 12z NAM. Weaker future NAM cycles would probably result in a lower SREF outcome. The CMCE has decreased since the 00z/17. cycle, however it is highest on its snowfall compared to the previously discussed lower biased GEFS/EPS. One reason, the CMCE attempts an 850MB circulation s of LI whereas the EPS/GEFS wash it out in the 00z/20 snapshot that I reviewed. I think we're going to need more of a CMCE 850 MB circulation solution to get some of the mesoscale model amounts and the 19z/17 NBM values as well. Attached the 19z/17 NBM as another fwiw. At least no sleet. Just a small chc of rain mix along parts of the LI/NJ oasts. Cant wishcast it...just use a balanced realistic approach in light of the dynamics involved.
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If this wasn't already posted, here's the 5PM deterministic NWS collaborated snowfall forecast that went into their mid Wednesday afternoon 1/17/24 products, mostly for Fri 1/19/24.
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12z/17 RDPS gives me pause... might just be a waffle less but I can't go overboard on expectations. Take what we can get
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Well, it was an extensive snow and ice event... the Globals: EC and GFS missed the icing along I95, until the last couple of 6 hour cycles and way out D4 or 5. The globals were also a little shy on qpf throughout. The Canadian, SPCHREF and HRRR were not very good this time... really messed up NNJ/w CT... nor did I recognize (modelologist) the less than 3" swath extreme nw NJ-w CT. Still I think the NAM/RDPS did the best on icing indicators and heavier inland qpf than the globals and had an idea of 3" snows e PA. Here's NOHRSC snow accums (don't look DC southwest since it doesn't have the snow prior to 00z16 - it's a 24 hr satellite-observed interface), also attached CoCoRaHs two day snowfall and qpf.
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Hey thanks... BUT. easy to not be decent at this modelology. I'll stay off this thread but I saw a comment was added. NAM continues tomorrows spits of snow and seems north for Friday. Unsure how this will play but I'm in the more snow camp. This event while not big, is different than yesterday and I think a little more potent with the config aloft. We'll see what happens if its dead and south like the EC. I'm not impressed with the EC this January. Except for 1 or 2 early D4 or 5 cycles, it was terrible on icing for yesterday. Not sure if its an adjusted way of doing the modeling - it definitely underplayed the qpf again. This my last. You all have if. If the NAM I overamped, then not much up there. Til I see the NAM RDPS lose it... I'll be looking for a little more than the tempered globals.
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You all are on it... keep monitoring. 09z serf sagged a little south but pretty beefy. am pretty sure we'll see a band of 5" somewhere between PHL and BDR. also...fwiw.. a band of 1/4-1" snow continues for tomorrow in N CT-S Ma... that may mt be f interest but it is to me..a possible hilly hazard.
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The target for this decent 9-15 hour snowfall continue PA-NJ, though the SREF is I80 north. Debateable but to me it looks like a base snowfall of 2" everywhere and then tops could e narrow swath of 5". NWS graphics attached from 09z/17. I added OBS to the thread title at 503AM Wed and unfortunately felt the need to add rain/snow mix tag for at least eastern/southern LI and coastal NJ where all snow is not in my mind a 100% guarantee. This event differs from the Tuesday event (I'll have a snowfall/qpf brief review up in the Tuesday thread late today). Tuesday was pure warm air advection with an 850 MB sw jet as the 5H short wave triesdtilting negative in its Tuesday afternoon mid Atlantic coast passage. This upcoming event looks a little more negative at 5H, and to me sharper with slower flow aloft as an 850MB low (very weak) tries to form in eastern PA-NJ coast Friday. This one to me has a little better chance at a short period of decent dendritic snow growth. (Tuesdays snow at least for nw NJ was mostly small flake dense packed). The EPS is well south of the SREF. I like best snowfall in the weak south or east flow between 8H-7H which is north of the EPS and is what the NWS 09z/17 probabilities for 2 and 4" show. User the colors bar for the chances of these amounts and click for clarity. All solutions need consideration. Another nice snowfall is on the way. At 555AM I added: The thought that we could break the record consecutive streak of no daily snowfall 2" or more at CP is definitely a possibility. Depends on snowfall rates and timing the measuring.
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Wantage NJ a dissaoointing 2.6" vs my expectations but it is beautiful. Max temp 24.4 which is now, and winds becoming a little gusty now. Most of the snowfall was small flake snow...max lift below dendrite growth zone. Densely packed powder. Kuchera didnt work for this storm... primarily because of snow growth. I may have mentioned it looked lackluster in a post yesterday. No matter...its snow. I'll post CoCoRaHs water equiv qpf and snow totals tomorrow, sometime in the afternoon.
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NWS LSR snow reports through 1230PM attached. Colors indicate the amounts which are basically heavier to the sw of NYC. Also added the 12z, 24 hour snowfall, from-via NOHRSC..which mirrors NWS reporting.
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Wantage NJ 2.1" at 1110A. S--
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Big time cooling in the satellite imagery CP as a short wave approaches from the southwest. Snow and intensities of mixd precipitation I95 should intensify and expand west the next 4 hours (19z). So far lots of fine flake dense packed snow here in Wantage with 2" but should get a decent dump 11A-2P here in SC. 21F. see tropical tidbits satellite imagery or the various WFO pages. Fine flake snow in progress despite few radar returns.
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Hopeful that an interim 945A measurement was made for the 2..75 hours additional minor acc. Sighhhh
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So far, CoCoRAH obs totals reported this morning. Will update with two day snowfall and water equiv tomorrow, sometime in the afternoon. Click for clarity if interested.
