wdrag

Potency continues for two events... MAY? add up to an isolated 5" storm today by Sunday night along with damaging wind-power outages-local detours. Follow NWS warning products. SPC has a slight risk for SVR today and nothing for Sunday which (imo only) may be underplayed for NJ on Sunday.. WPC has marginal risk for FF this afternoon-evening, again Saturday night-Sunday. Today: Large low level lapse rates may make up for lack of deep instability in a 95-100F max temp environment this afternoon. Fairly progressive sewd moving event but PW around 2" suggests wet microbursts mainly 4P-8P Sunday: low pressure focuses lift Sunday in a potentially more widespread FF event, especially NJ-LI. While instability a little less, the convergence with PWAT almost 2.4" may more than compensate. Be alert traveling late today and Sunday and have alternate plans for delays. Note: There might be late Saturday afternoon heavy showers in north central NJ s of i80 but the real deal is Sunday midnight-3PM. I have not included Tuesday's severe potential---in another thread early next week if my assessment is correct.

No thread Fri-Sun but have no changes on expectations...NYC-KEWR 100F has the least certainty. sct svr, iso FF both Fri afternoon-Sunday. Iso 72 hr total 5+. Will recheck with a little more time to digest tomorrow morning 6A. Plan on active Fri aft and Sunday.

RJAY led the way a few weeks ago. He gets the cred. Very nice pic

Pretty good chance will issue a thread for Fri-Sun at 8P this evening. Includes SVR FF potential Fri afternoon (in my opinion only-despite weak 5-7H lapse rates T/TD spreads of 30F at max heating 2PM Fri will favor downdrafts-downbursts---especially near NYC) as well as 'possible' first 100F NYC since 2012; and SVR FF Sunday with spot 5" 72 hr total by 06z/Monday. I know the group think is that CP is viewed as a cooling center relative to surroundings. However, EC continues pushing 100 for NYC. We'll see if its too aggressive.

No threading tonight but continues to look interesting to me Fri-Sun and next Tue before an extended cool down develops late next week. No Aug thread from myself til late Fri afternoon after the CPC week 3-4 issues.

No threads yet on the following: Fairly widespread SVR late Fri. Spot 5" totals 18z Fri-06z Mon, inclusive of several short duration FF events, primarily Sunday. This may include embedded iso svr. Last chance for 100F this year Newark-NYC seems like this Friday but above normal mean of 90+ occurrences at hand for KEWR as 90+ reoccurs Saturday and Tuesday July 29. Tuesday: nw flow svr event. August: seasonable variability again as per July with a cooler than normal first week, then seemingly wetter and warmer than normal last 3 weeks of Aug as the w Atlantic ridge builds in response to the strong 5H heat ridge near the Rockies, possibly edging west toward the end of the month. Support from 00z/22 GEFS qpf through 700+ hours as seen on Pivotal and spot check of ECMWF INT and the July 17 CPC 1 month outlook. This suggests to me probably no more 100 at KEWR but plenty of 90-95 after the first week of August. Will check in tomorrow

Fun times ahead for the extremists. As mentioned in several earlier posts this past page or two... EPS is going ahead with two or three 100+ days at KEWR Fri-Sun and an active potential FF pattern Sun-Mon. No thread at this time but the 95+ heat returns with only one caveat...return flow cloud-moisture mid week might temper the actual temp a bit. No thread at this time due to the more seasonably normal nature of the coming events though if it looks like 5+ is assured in some spots, will then thread. NYC 100+ would also need a thread (from my view) but too early for me to confidently express. 579DM 1000-500MB thickness prompts the concerns late this week-weekend. --- In the meantime, I was involved in the FFW results yesterday (Sunday) morning 7/20 , near Lakewood-Point Pleasant NJ where a solid 2-3" drenching occurred 5-630AM. Was lucky not stranded on Arnold St Pt Pleasant (hub cap deep runoff). That was the event I was looking for in the prior long range. but was too small to thread. Back home...have a day.

for now nd maybe never: no Sat night-Sun thread (FF/SVR). Will review again Fri and Sat morning. Have a day.

No thread for this afternoon-Thursday activity. Small chance isolated 4+ along the southern edge of NYC subforum (I-195) but not threading. Could be isolated severe per SPC. My main concern is Sunday...combined period of excessive rain and possibly two separate episodes of severe (warm front early morning and cold front in the afternoon). SVR not currently outlooked in the northeast but I think it will be in a day or two. EPS combo plot as seen on Pivotal is of interest.

I saw the OKX update with the 6+ amounts, many via CoCoRaHs. Thank you. WXUNDERGROUND amounts like my AWN sensor are not qc'd and overall can run a little high in the intense rainfall situations...(stratus plastic is my qc) BUT wxunderground platforms are very good data points that I think warrant consideration by all-especially searching for wx related problems.

No new thread til st least 730AM Wednesday. Possibly none till Saturday

Thanks for the CoCoRaHs posts. That takes care of whatever official posts might have overlooked.

Ok I'll go there... and drop it from here. I didnt get that warm sense from a post on MAP group.

Thanks for this Don--- hoping they update this better reality by Noon today. Clearly more than 5" fell. Response is pretty severe in parts of NYC subforum.

0.82 here i9n this part of Wantage NJ. I'll be looking for a listing of NWS posted rainfall amounts from OKX and PHI on this thread later today. Can't do CoCoRaHs post till this afternoon. am looking at probably one more FF/SVR thread this week centered on Sunday into early Monday. Small chc thread for Wed afternoon-Thu but am pretty sure we'll need a thread for Sunday, in part due to antecedent pockets of saturated turf.

You may want to monitor a potential marine heatwave in the north Pacific and discussion of its subsequent winter impact in the northeast USA. Long ranging is fraught with poor performance but the researchers and pattern relators attempt to Improve

Looks quite threatening from near White Plains into ne NJ. Here's a 5" report embedded within 4" near White Plains. I know NWS doesn't use these amounts but if you check the RadarScope STP...its AT LEAST 5" in that area near White Plains. Just an example. Click for. clarity on both graphics. I'm probably off line til 830P.

Good Monday morning everyone. Please follow anticipated NWS warnings-statements later today. Already as of 530AM 1/4-1/2" amounts fell earlier today in NNJ. Watches are posted where potential exists for localized excessive rainfall by Tuesday morning, isolated 5-6" totals possible, mainly NJ portion of our NYC subforum. An impaired Monday evening commute is anticipated with delays-accidents-possible detours. Plan accordingly. Recent humid but no rain scenario of past several days limits any mainstream flood potential but creeks-small streams, and especially urban areas along I95 are vulnerable to short fuse excessive rainfall, life threatening flooding if caught in overflowed roads. Turn around-don't drown should be in the back of all motorists minds. Added SPC HREF average rainfall and maximum potential rainfall graphic by Tuesday evening (most of this occurring 2PM-Midnight today). The WPC excessive rainfall forecast. Also the 5AM WPC 7 day rainfall anticipated by the 21st and depiction of NWS watches lager today.

No thread as of 609P/13 but since PHI has a Flood Watch posted..am leaning to an issuance as an OBS-NOW FF thread at 6A Monday... all of the above pertains. Will also look and see if I need to combine the wfront/qstry front additional for Tuesday. Have a good night.

No thread yet, but considering on for I95 corridor northwest across NNJ and se NYS for iso 5" in 3-6 hours Mon afternoon-Night. Will review more guidance late in the day and repost around 8P. 12z/13 SPC HREF is more or less mirroring the heavier GFS qpf. Am pretty sure the iso ~ 5" occurs but where?.

Wantage NJ 4sw... (8 s of High Point NJ) 347 PM report. Had about .36" in 11 minutes ending around 333 PM. Max G 25 MPH (higher than the previous 140PM warned storm). Very little T if any in this 323PM batch. Total for this afternoon now1.21", one tenth inch less than the automated Ambient gage.

Wantage NJ 1230-145P including the warned storm. Max G on my weather Stn 14... rainfall 0.85" in 75 minutes - 3 events.

Thought about a combined SVR-FF thread but HREF not as impressive with max qpf as prior threaded event. No doubt there will be iso 2-3" problems. Noted SPC conservative on SVR so for now...opted to leave all obs right here in the July thread. Will be offline most of the day.

No thread, at least not yet... but the week ahead seems like opportunity for mesoscale excesses. Many models disagree with the EPS (and occasionally the CMC suite) ever increasing heavy rain threat for parts of our NNJ portion of the NYC subforum. For now will go with 3" max Mon afternoon-evening somewhere up here-probably near I95. (Chantel 850 flow-moisture advection combined with RRQ of th UL jet over New England) Looking ahead...the CF heavy convection in parts of the area Tue. Then Thu-Fri, maybe Sat... heavy rain potential with southern stream short wave and warm front returning. Some of the experimental modeling has us in small chance iso FF THU-Sat (spot 5"+ this 3 day period). Added July CoCoRaHs totals as a baseline. Click for clarity. Next potential 3 day (dry) haying period around 7/16-19? Cleaned up the FF potential graphics at 752AM

So... unless I'm wrong, the pattern for summer is established. Weakness in the southern and eastern USA. Generally at or ABOVE normal temps around here. Next chance for FF opportunity in our NYC subforum seems to be in the July 8-15 time frame THOUGH AI seems to deny.