wdrag

My concern with this east coast heatwave is heat related fatalities... I could be reading this wrong and someone else can post more realistic perspective.

Looks to me like action packed 10 days ahead. Maybe someone can add the latest on EFI temp here, as well as all time record max NYC, EWR... last time 100 NYC. We already have the basics in the opener graphics. Noting PWAT near 2" Wed eve-Thu morning. Could be local wet microbursts and FF in our area but that is not intentionally covered in this thread. May add it early next week but only if it includes Wed. This thread is first and foremost dedicated to coming heat in our NYC suboforum and whether the EPS over did it? I am always cautious on extremes as I was in Sandy... and here too but we have to use the science to the best of our ability to mitigate adverse impact. and the science is improving. Brownouts coming NYC? This 4 day period is human-pet threat, especially the vulnerable young-old, limited cognitio and wherewithal. Good to prepare to to monitor and assist where needed. HW I think begins I95 corridor in NJ today with first 90. Probably my last on this today

but consider that forecasters do not like egg on their face so to speak... none of us like to be wrong. In this case confidence is high that problems will develop of the magnitude described. Yes watch is less confident than warning,

Busy w granddaughter but I think terminology has changed. UNUSUAL for NWS to issue a watch 3-6 days in advance. Confidence high on problems. In the Deep South they might handle it better?? but here its sudden onset and magnitude. Ensembles continue 100+ for the I95 corridor.

Model guidance (especially European) for days has been forecasting 100 degree heat, with the potential suppressants being early developing daily sea breezes and/or thunderstorms-clouds debris. While severe storms cause damage, excessive heat can cause fatalities if not properly prepared. Please follow NWS guidance and advise of local officials-cooling centers, hydrating etc as this heat wave develops. The Heat Wave 'may' break next Thu-Fri before reasserting for another opportunity at 100F next weekend - June 28-29. June record stats in the 90+ year Period of Record (POR)... 100+. Newark 2 days, NYC CP 1. Yearly warmest 3 day max temp period ever in Newark over the 90+ period of record. We MAY??? crack top 10. See attached graphic. Added Preparedness statistics graphic...believe--especially urban centers which may not cool below 82 degrees Monday and Tuesday nights. HEAT on average is the highest fatality hazard. WPC statistical probability of MAX HI on the 23rd is added... from the graphic you can see that is a 50-70% chance in the interior. post completed 1105PM/19

I will start a thread on what may be the hottest stretch of our summer (KEWR Mean temp and 2-3 100 degree days interior between Sun-Wed), with 1-2 days of 100 NYC in this period. Beyond, this heat wave, it (90 or higher) possibly lasts through all of June and another surge of 100+ heat 28-30. I'll concentrate on the Sun-Wed period for a start. Thread may not post til after 10P. 90 not likely tomorrow in the interior but I think a decent chance of starting Saturday afternoon.

Long daylight. Max t could be 11a or 5P. I’ll check tonight but I think mcs will rise through by sunrise Sunday

am rushing so won't make a final decision for 2-3 100F days M-W KEWR area (interior NJ in our subforum). Probably a pretty good chance for NYC to get at least one but want to rereview at 9P. Heat wave officially begins interior NJ Suun, possibly touching 90 Sat). HW ends sometime between Thu-Sat next week dependent on backdoor. No time to assess SVR. Use among your tools SPC and BOM. Have a day, Walt

I haven't had a chance to review all the posts last 4 hours, but from my vantage point. THREE 100 deg days in June is still a possibility INLAND NJ-NYS/CT, BUT, same caveats as yesterday... pattern isobars show quite a bit of weakness so its easier to Seabreeze early in the season, plus T STORM cloud cover debris is unknown. (not sure how EC spreads 100 so far inland across LI/NYC next week and so I have to expect some tempering of those excessive projections in the weekend updates). I think 00z/18 GFS MEX MOS is wayyy too cool on daytimes for KEWR but its something to keep in mind. Thursday max at KEWR is my decision break point on any 100 degree thread for next week that would possibly issue Thursday evening. I've no plans to thread tomorrows fairly widespread severe wind potential along I95. Am pretty sure we'll see a a nw flow MCS - iso severe in NY metro early Sunday morning as the warm front returns. My KEWR 90 degree days are Thu, possibly both Sat/Sun, certainly Mon-Wed and then maybe again Thu and Sat of next week with 3 100's possibly??? embedded between Mon-Sat of next week. SVR potential in slow moving deluges wherever sea breezes intersect next Mon-Tue (if not capped). Noticed besides the 2-4K J ML Cape early next week- there are rather large 7H-5H lapse rates. IF something goes, would be microburst w hail/wind/ flooding...thats IFFFF.

Have briefly scanned 12z EC... unbelievable next week. Just have to play it conservative but as above ... am in agreement. My north Jersey senior softball (age 60-68 and 69-80+) for Tue morning... probably 250 players idled for the second Tue in a row by wet ground. Next week, heat warning may preclude a second game at 1130A and just a 10A. just for the fun of it.

Considering, but not acting upon a possible thread for interior NJ first June 3 or more 100 degree days, occurring next week. Blend of Models is several degrees under 100. I want to see how temps play this Thursday (KEWR 90?), and subsequent modeling. Much can interrupt excessive heat, including sea breezes, thunderstorms, cloud debris. TOO early but for me, worthy of monitoring. 105 "heat index" - think that is our warning criteria up here, has according to WPC statisitcs is around a 60% chance of occurrence Monday and Tuesday. Here is Tuesday's early morning WPC prediction for Tuesday. Click for clarity and use the graph for probability interpretation.

No changes from my Sunday morning post... except to add the small potential for a nw flow severe event Sat afternoon, especially eastern parts of our area (CT/LI). That in addition to whatever happens this Thursday as currently outlooked by SPC. I looked at XMACIS and there just isn't any need from my perspective for a heat thread. What is coming is sort of normal for June, especially interior. The sudden change will take a few by surprise but little doubt in my mind we experience heat advisory (June 95-100) interior Thu afternoon, and then possible heat warning or however the NWS titles it for early next weeks MAX HI 100-105. Duration (4 day or 7day+ heat wave of 90+uncertain for KEWR) but I think heat wave likely begins Sunday afternoon. Right now WPC max HI only goes out to Monday and is more conservative.

Ill be off line most of the rest of the day so wont be able to comment further. Lets first see if Newark can indeed make 100 early next week. It should feel 100+ but whether we can get to 100... 9 days in advance??? I've no reliable certitude.

For the record: Only Newark below. POR 1931. 8 summers had 100 in June as the warmest. Therefore the preponderance of 100 degree days did occur JA, generally not more than 2 days a month though a few big months which you can reference, especially for those that are using analog years. Eyeballing, the 1990s stand out a bit to me. METADATA may be important there which I did not check. ASOS install, locations etc. Bottom line this spells out the hottest days (not necessarily hottest summers). Don and others may be adding more. Thank you to the NWS collaboration developing XMACIS and to all the global researchers- modelers that develop and allow us view meteorological modeling. It is illuminating and can be useful perspective. You can figure out the columns for JJA Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 Max 0 2025 0 2025 0 2025 0 2025 0 2025 2 2021 5 2022 4 1953 1 1993 0 2024 0 2024 0 2024 9 1993 1931 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1932 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1933 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1934 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1935 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1936 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1937 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1938 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1939 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1940 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1941 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1942 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1943 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1944 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 1945 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1946 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1947 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1948 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 1949 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 8 1950 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1951 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1952 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1953 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 6 1954 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1955 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 4 1956 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1957 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1958 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1959 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1960 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1961 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1962 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1963 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1964 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1965 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1966 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 5 1967 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1968 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1969 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1970 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1971 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1972 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1973 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1974 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1975 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1976 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1977 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1978 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1979 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1980 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1981 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1982 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1983 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1984 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1985 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1986 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1988 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 5 1989 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1991 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1992 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1993 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 1 0 0 0 9 1994 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1995 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1997 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1998 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1999 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 2002 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 2003 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2005 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 3 2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 2011 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 2012 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 2013 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2021 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 6 2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2024 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 M M M M M M 0

I will monitor... I certainly wouldn't be advising an emergency manager. I'm not an analog forecaster.

No sure why you say that? Explain? I dont see it in the means which I know are not necessarily reliable but all I can go on. I tend to see this coming heat as significant but July/August? Don might something more to say then what I'm seeing, which is reoccurring troughing in the east and maybe more ridging developing in the Atlantic, implying bouts of wetness alternating with humid heat. Typical above normal temp summer....but in the means but I cant think of 100. Modeling can be overexhuberant beyond a week. So I plan shorter term. Tuesday doubleheader softball hopefully gets in before the next bigger rain, and then the 24th, we may need to plan second game midday starting with a shorter count to avoid cooking our 70 and 80 year old players. That's how I plan.

Good Sunday morning, Heat is obviously coming now and interiors slated for an above normal number of 90+ days in June. Thursday may be a heat advisory afternoon for interior NJ (EWR etc). Also mixed layer Cape over 1500J with Bulk Shear >30 kits suggests potential for SVR. Timing timing timing. Then the heat wave, first of the year probably for most of us except water influenced coastal spots (Sunday-approximately around Wednesday of next week), possibly longer with widespread heat advisory conditions early next week, possibly a heat Warning coming for some spots. Interestsingly enough while ML CAPE is high early next week, Bulk Shear is low so any SVR Thunder may be more isolated, local convergence initiated. Recent abo e normal rainfall and another event coming before the heat... that will help with higher dews and possibly lower max temp potential a deg or two. Nevertheless, HOT looks to be on the way.

91+ at KEWR today...so interior NJ I think is well on its way to a normal or above normal month of 90 or higher via KEWR verification. Possibly near normal qpf too? Associated with oscillating warm-cool spells. KEWR normal 90 in June, please correct me if I'm wrong = FIVE? So far two. Two to 4 more modeled possibilities 6/19, 6/21-22, 6/25-26? Beyond...havent checked.

Presuming everyone is fully aware of the GFS failure., attempting to spin up a TS vcnty GMEX the past week or so.

Hi. fwiw...the post was associated with the late Sunday (8th) northeastward moving weakening lead short wave. Not the10th.

Also: fwiw.. ECAI had this mornings NJ rain nailed every cycle back to 174 hours per Trop Tidbits "prior version" 6 hrs ending 12z. GFS Op was not quite as consistent. If interested, take a look. This rain impacted outdoor activities this morning in NNJ.

Briefly reviewed... GEFS/EPS Blend would have been best as it rained through most of Nj but mainly sprits LI.

First 7 days of June inland as represented by KEWR Climate (five 80+)... Cooler than this for the coasts. CP at +1.1 for the month and only 3 days of 80.

Looks wet at times, daily through Tue... added the Prob of >0.01 from wet 00z/7 EPS and drier GEFS. I wouldn't promise anyone a dry Sunday afternoon-night... just by natural, albeit weakening northeastward ejection of the lead short wave, I would think rain would impact. our area later Sunday. When to mow if you didnt yesterday... for me up here, window of opportunity 4P today to 2P Sunday. Attached probs. Next chance of 90 interior seems next Thu-Fri though ensembles dont play it up. Very rapid warming again after the trough aloft our area Tue-Wed lifts northward, similar to this past Wed-Fri. Will add first week CF6 for Newark tomorrow morning.