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wdrag

Meteorologist
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  1. This part of Wantage 0.1" very fine flake snowfall and still ongoing at 31.5. No problems on pavement.
  2. flurries expanding NYC/LI at 650 PM and am pretty sure interior NNJ will see 0.1- to iso 1" ridges ne PA and SC nw NJ by unrise whereever temps now 33F or colder. It's modeled -8C at the top of moist layer near 850MB...so ice nuclei available. That may disappear toward sunrise when snow changes to drizzle/freezing drizzle-sleet then gradually end. by Noon. SFC temp determines whether freezing or non. I think there's a pretty good chance of whitening of the ground..maybe not CP but outskirts of the urban centers have a very good chance of whitening, especially NNJ-ne PA. Enjoy whatever happens.
  3. So the bogus 00z-06z/30 NAM..possibly too cool tonight NYC but still has a touch of snow...freezing drizzle...ice pellets much of western LI thru NNJ. Shall we ignore it? EC nothing and already busting on no fragments of icy wintry precip occurring MA, RI e LI NJ and PA. I think it will happen. Spotty 1/2-1" hills of NNJ into ne PA? GFS and HRRR have it tonight so could be a little slick in spots outside the city later tonight. Overall the future doesn't offer anything substantial east of the Apps next two weeks. ATTACHED 10 day NBM snowfall. Click for clarity. btw I notice some NYC TV doesn't seem to check mPing... here in Wantage we had some graupel-Trace.
  4. Click for clarity if you're interested in snowfall for this weekends I84 event. The 2 day would slightly more ne PA but this was the essentials. Repeating a little from this morning's wrap. You'll note via initial thread issuance, that the EPS prob of 1" ended up the worst of the outlooks. No single model is best every time but the NBM blend works, especially as the NWS has incorporated many elements that we don't see here outside the NWS domain via National Blend of Models (NBM). Any future initialized winter threads for NYC will incorporate the National Blend of Models (NBM) which did very well on this non-event south of I84 and am sure was part of the guidance for the conservative NWS deterministic snow forecasts. I've seen this NBM perform well on big rain events. This is my first winter utilizing it. I'll make sure it is added to the initial thread issuance in the future, in addition to the globals EPS probs and EPS positive snow depth change, which will make a routine of 6 graphics plus the NBM graphic. 29/659P
  5. I'm aware this was a wrong forecast south of I84. I'll post maps of snowfall this evening. You'll note via initial thread issuance, that the EPS prob of 1" ended up the worst of the outlooks. No single model is best every time but the blend works, especially as the NWS has incorporated many elements that we don't see here outside the NWS domain via National Blend of Models (NBM). Any future winter threads for NYC (if there are any?) will incorporate the National Blend of Models (NBM) which did very well on this non-event south of I84 and am sure was part of the guidance for the conservative NWS deterministic snow forecasts. I've seen this NBM perform well on big rain events. This is my first winter utilizing it. I'll make sure it is added to the initial thread issuance in the future (if there any) in addition to the EPS probs.
  6. about an inch I think from earlier pictures. Moderate sleet shower lower Wantage 4-415. I think we're going to stick during the night... not much and way less than ensembles but a little snow is coming, especially this evening ne PA and NW Nj, eventually to translate to I95-NYC- near PHL by morning. Lowest of the day right now at 33.3
  7. Unsure...follow NWS map attached. Should be snowing Mt Pocono now. 32F. NWS WPC broad area probs for 1 and 4 attached. Go to PHI home page and then theirwinter wx page and that will give you probs of various amounts.
  8. Rain-wet snow mix at 640A at 740' elevation. Temps northern SC 33-34F except 31 at the HP Monument.
  9. Just received a report of snow on Deckertown (CR650 in Sussex County NJ with elevations above 1000 feet) and no acc but temps are falling. Mount Pocono 32 so the transition to wet snow at elevations has started. 34 at HP and Vernon at 530AM. I think much more to come next 6 hours up here.
  10. MPING: Unless the modeling warms and yields no snow/rain mix down I78 and NYC (maybe even I-195)tomorrow morning, I think mPing is going to be valuable ground truth, but please dont let it preoccupy your day. I have a granddaughter over so I'll be paying attention again for a while tomorrow morning and again tomorrow night. Correlation Coefficient on Radar Scope or other apps may be helpful for us inland from I95. Banding tomorrow morning per continuing NAM signal and HREF: Wont surprise me to see 1/4-1/2" splot down in an hours time I80 north and coastal CT. Banding Sunday evening more persistent from ne PA to near the Catskills-Berkshires. That's when "possibly" the biggest snowfall occurs ne PA-se NYS-CT-MA.
  11. I'm at 740'MSL. You'll know seeing my reports or those of nearby Vernon on mPing between 7and 9A in north central SC, whether our thinking will work I'm counting on 2" slushy snow here at this Wantage elevation and probably 4-5" total Vernon and High Point. This might be high per NBE? You're thinking it out well and so its too close to be certain except am pretty sue we'll whiten the ground for a while. I see the 18z EPS and HRRR continure. If the 18z NAM loses it and the future HRRR too, then it wont happen. Decisions will need to be made for the 330PM advisories Pocs northeastward, and maybe a warning Catskills and possibly Litchfield Hills where power outages more likely (imo). Only my opinion.
  12. So far, the HRRR continues on its path of rain to snow I78 by 12z Sunday...so far. Am not guaranteeing but its still an option, especially since it like the Canadian suite tend to run slightly warm and amped.
  13. Good Saturday morning everyone, It's a forum but I think those who malign the models would be nowhere had their been no models. For this forum I hope a respectful approach is preferred (at least I hope that is preferred by our moderators). Each weather situation is different and we'll see at Noon Monday which model or blend of models verified most accurately at their portrayal of an elevation dependent event. Tuesday CoCoRaHs)post of snowfall, maybe sooner if WFO's need to issue PNS's. I did not substantially change the thread title this morning. A slight delay and smoothing out of the date-day and added OBS. I95 to the coast wet roads, despite any wet snow at the front and back end of this moderate elevation dependent I84 northward snow event with potential for power outages north of I84 in 4+" wet snow areas near 1000 feet and above. Modeling suggests bands (yes newd transitory banding) of heavy qpf tomorrow morning that between 8AM and Noon could be mixed with wet snow down to I78 and NYC (no accum or spotty 0.1" grass) for NYC-LI. Back side of the event is in question but some of the modeling is continuing to drag its heels in storm departure (and was at thread inception). I think the implication is the remaining 5H vort-sharp trough passing eastward across NJ will send a cluster of showery mixed r/s newd from BWI_PHI at dawn Monday and try to merge-blend in with the 850MB nose of the northeast jet band in NYS/CT around sunrise in NYC to bring periods of wet melting snow to I95 and LI. This too may come down briefly 3/4Mile in parts of NJ/NYC-LI Monday morning-midday with a whitening of the grass and snowboards possible. I think we have a major test between ensemble (and operational) positive snow depth change and the NBE snowfall when modeled 2m temps are 33-36F. I may be misunderstanding the use of positive snow growth, especially in the ensembles... for now I use positive snow growth as a useful tool for roads... and double it for a base to max range of measurable snow. When it snows, temps tend to drop to between 32-34F an hour or 2 after it starts.--not sure if modeling can capture that. Obviously at night its an easier accum on all surfaces. Cooler air is now leaking ever so slowly south down to I90 and will be drawn into the BL over our area from northeast during this event while strong lift from the approaching 5H short wave and 850MB se inflow will help cool the column Sunday before backside comma head curls southward and eastward of our area Monday morning. My 530AM expectations for NNJ remain as is: Northern NJ-Poconos -southeast NYS Sunday-Sunday night: GREAT UNCERTAINTY with vastly differing modeling for an elevation dependent event and much more conservative NWS forecast (see their graphic attached). 1/2-2" wet snow Easton PA-Warren County and the south two thirds of Sussex County (including Newton) over to Kinnelon but 3-6" wet snow likely Poconos and the north border of Sussex County including High Point, Vernon and northern Wantage locations above about 1000 feet as well as Orange County NY elevations above 1000 ft. Rain changes to a 3 hour period of heavy wet snow sometime near 8-9AM Sunday then either quits in the afternoon or back to rain. Sunday night periods of mixed precip changes to lighter wet snow during the night. Temps fall during the snow Sunday to 32-34F Suggest factor in possible delays into the Poconos - I84 itself. Manageable mostly wet road travel Easton PA to Newton and Kinnelon NJ but slushy slippery at times elevations above 1000 feet. Not all modeling agrees but plan for the worst and it may turn out much less hazardous than I expect if the NWS much more conservative snow forecast is correct (see their graphic). This forecast is slightly less impact than what I was thinking on previous daily issuances. I'll check back in tonight or tomorrow morning. Have a day and fingers crossed that everyone realizes most snow events NYC-LI tend to be minor. I'm pretty sure you'll see a little white rain as some say tomorrow and some minor accum Monday.
  14. I'll update the headline around 10A to include OBS and any other possible minimizing considerations. Pretty big banding signal front end Sunday morning with heavier rain mixing very briefly with wet snow NYC I80 and possibly changing to a period of heavy wet snow for 3 hours late Sunday morning on snow ratios way down. More at about 10A.
  15. sighhh...just doesn't look so boring to me 2/2, 2/5-7 and then the Southern Stream should crank several storms mid and end of the month (after the 10th). Differs from some of the modeling suggesting a dryer than normal first two weeks of Feb.
  16. Maybe it will verify, and we need to watch NAM (so called bad model) trends remain with the thermal structure that its 06z/26 modeled for I80 north. FWIW( same poster 10 to 1 too high) but the 06z/26 EPS chance of 1" of snow (make it 1/2" at a temp of 32-33F non pavement). Front end Sunday morning may surprise. Pretty big lift from se inflow jet that is cooling the thermal structure. Gradient is subject to nil snowfall in NJ but the core that skirts MPO-FWN northward deserved a little more snow, I thought. Surface temps marginal for acc, especially roads along and s of I80. In the hills---drive carefully. Will revisit tomorrow morning as have family and work and at that time, I'll adjust the headline to include OBS.
  17. ELEVATION dependent. Valleys: roads wet, grass etc slushy. I think if we get above 1000 feet, it should look much more interesting and an interesting ride along the NYT (I87), I84, I91 valleys looking vertically Monday morning.
  18. GREAT uncertainty: See the much more. conservative attached 5AM NWS deterministic snowfall forecast that is the basis of their forecasts issued early today. I went much heavier elevation dependent. I could be crushingly wrong. Yet, I feel the need to provide guidance and certainly plan for myself with grandkids in the Poconos and many friends here. Also attached NWS ensemble chance of 1 and 4". The icing chance is not attached for Saturday-Sunday but that is also a factor for at least N CT-MA higher terrain. My expectation: Two to 8" wet snow likely elevation dependent I84 corridor. Uncertainty exists on when rain changes to mostly wet snow on Sunday and how much. Elevations above 1000 feet have the best chance of exceeding 4" (Poconos, northern Sussex County into Orange County-Litchfield Hills). Meanwhile, Newton in southern Sussex County down into Warren County and east to Kinnelon NJ and back into the Easton PA-Phillipsburg NJ area maybe only get an inch of slushy snow with manageable travel and roads wet during the day Sunday. Temps during the snow Sunday 32-34F with occasional melting on pavement at all elevations. Suggest factor in possible delays into the Poconos - I84 itself with best accumulations before sunrise Sunday and after sunset Sunday evening. Power outage problems may develop whereever 4+" of snow accumulates. Not all modeling agrees but plan for the worst and it may turn out much less hazardous than I expect.
  19. NBE nice starting point for NYC - we'll see again but am not too confident they're reading in nearly enough snowfall terrain north of I80. It would be a colossal bust for the EPS if this does not occur and I'm starting to see some problems in the NBE as I look closely at event after event. It's a starting point. Still have a few more cycles of modeling for a slight change in everything we're seeing. My hope is the 00z/26 GGEM is following the 18z RGEM southward expansion of snow, to nearly what it was a day ago. Just not sure about the EPS but it is fairly ominous for pockets of power problems I84 high terrain. Sooner or later it has to back down or other modeling has to come up.
  20. Still a lot of confusion on what to believe, but the EC and EPS from 18z/25 have struck down the north idea, are much faster with change to wet snow and definitely fit the thread outlined. Whether we can muster any accum NYC/LI is very uncertain- but I think the I84 corridor is the place to be...terrain above 1000 feet. Basically the EPS/EC has smoothed out its messy 12z op cycle and says much faster for change to 32-33F wet snow, with melting on pavement during the daylight hours but a problem hazardous event at times. Going to need a hazard advisory of some sort. We're only 48-60 hours from starting. Also 4+ at 32-33F could initiate a few isolated power outages by 11PM Sunday within 15 miles of I84 and terrain above 1000 feet.
  21. On colder air: think we need to watch what happens in MA tomorrow night-Friday as there is some NAM signal on some BL CAA. If it doesn't depart, it could be easier to turn over to snow. EPS has a small chance of ice in the transition over the I84 hills.
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