wdrag

Regarding LR: Complications for Wed-Fri, could result in some periodic rain for the coasts and at the least lots of clouds. Overall: I didnt check recent dryness, but already sw Canada seems to have been burning for a while and from what I can tell, excessive heat spreads eastward, north of the Great Lakes. My guess is lots of smokey sky in our future next week when the pattern at mid levels seems to encourage sewd drift of sw Canada smoke. That does not translate to near surface aerosol complications but visually, I 'think' we're headed to a return of smoky sky.

CoCoRaHs summary late Fri, late Sat-Sun events... should help lower drought classification by one, that we will see Thursday. Note the whole NYC subforum did very well... max axis near I95, give or take. E Li you did aok. Click for clarity the sunDAY leftovers, the Fri-Sun broad look (reds the heaviest), and then the detailed bulk NYC subforum.

I see nothing that excites a thread from me for our NYC subforum for the next week or two, maybe longer? Glad I didnt thread yesterday. Some severe and iso flooding NJ (4+ in Monmouth County per CoCoRaHs). Overall, the global model guidance defied drier stats, beginning from late August and the wetter global guidance broadly verified, max qpf axis always to be adjusted. You'll see the Fri-Sun combo results tomorrow. I am observing a dead Hurricane Season so far, and note also that I thought this was a quiet summer for severe here in our NYC subforum. Have a day, Walt

CoCoRaHs Regionally yesterday, Locally yesterday, Fri-Sun CoCoRaHs combo and the reservoirs (only through 9/5). I guess I'm not too alarmed... fall season is tropical related but less and less evapo-transporation as days grow shorter and climo temps lower. Click for clarity.

NYC CP about .65 in 30 minutes, ongoing

Not threading. Follow NWS warnings-statements. Discussed plenty already. I85 corridor seems to be the central axis for a 1-3" total by Noon Sunday with isolated 4" and chc FFW or FLW in urban centers of ne NJ/NYC/w CT, and near small streams in NJ/CT. MAX 6" showing up SPCHREF in s NJ past 2 cycles but 4-4.5"possible somewhere in ne NJ sw CT. So maybe I'm too lax on this but I think you have this covered. SVR and FF threat mainly til 10PM, but expect some mdi-heavy rain tomorrow morning before it quits midday-afternoon. Will add CoCoRaHs 24 hour totals tomorrow and the two event summary on Monday morning.

Thank you. 12z SPC HREF is saying it will happen up and down the I95 corridor. Bring your swimmies if you're outside and dry clothes for inside. 80% prob of watch issuance in latest convective outlook up and down I95. Will probably issue NOW-OBS thread 130PM if not sooner. This will be significant for some folks.

Regarding this afternoon I95 corridor: Not knowing when football games start etc... but be prepared for delays. Regarding Philly... your call as always. I would not risk outdoor celebration if it was me, except maybe the initial ceremony. NO guarantees as to what will happen but here is info from SPC and late arriving HRRR. Watch for convection NYC area developing 1230-2P, then the big squall line forming 2PM e PA and marching e from there. See graphics... cherry picked indeed but stuff I use to make decisions. I may still get a NOW thread going at 130PM. I do think there are going to be travel delays due to ponding on roads and 1-2.5" in spots by 8PM. PWAT pretty high... near 1.8". Graphics imply be alert... there will be variations. Consider downside risk outside your personal interest and thinking of impact on surroundings. Last night SPC HREF hourly for 5P. The SPC outlook prob for thunderstorms 4-8P (70% I95 corridor 13z HRRR gust graphic 5P (55 MPH se PA) 13z HRRR 5P reflectivity (might be too slow) 12z NAM 5P.

Alright... I'll post some info for all to digest in 3 min.

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No thread from myself: Looks good for 1-3" I95 corridor iso 4. Few SVR 2P-8P. This welcomed rain will be a little further east than Friday. Rain ends W-E Sunday.

No thread from myself: Looks good for 1-3" I95 corridor iso 4. Few SVR 2P-8P. This welcomed rain will be a little further east than Friday. Rain ends W-E Sunday.

May start a thread at 630AM Saturday for OBS-NOWCAST fairly widespread svr and a few Possible FF along I95 corridor. Model trends important and so am not committed yet but I think we're going to be pretty interested in the activity, especially for SEPT. SVR threat seems larger than the FF due to the recent dryness on and east of I95. However NNJ - central NJ inside of I95... be on your toes and no hanging out on stream banks once this system gets going. There were very sharp rises (and falls) of small streams last evening . Might be more extreme tomorrow. Aquiet period Sat evening before the widespread moderate rains with embedded thunder occur overnight Sat. Eastern LI probably not too much til maybe e Sunday morning

Other than the 12z/5 GGEM which looks pathetic against 12z/5 NAM, 06z/5 EC/EAAI, there will be an additional 1/2-3" of rain 16z Sat-16z Sun in NJ/LI/se NYS/CT,, especially near the Hud River and I95 corridor. You choose where. Point Pleasant wont miss though hard to say how much there. Too much backside vort after the initial squall line passes late Sat. Should rain decently overnight Sat into daybreak Sunday. Pretty sharp cool down Sat night. Tue-Wed looking a little more likely for cool coastal rain. Back later today.

Follow HRRR and plan accordingly. It's going to rain at 430PM Saturday but where exactly is the wedding near PHI. For now, imo, the HRRR has been running a little slow on convection developing (certainly for this most recent event). For a number of reasons (AC - heat,/Thunder lightning wind threat), I'd advise indoors but that's your call.

More yesterday from the 531AM PNS PHI. No PNSOKX on rainfall as of 948AM/5 ...Sussex County... Blue Mountain Lakes 3.14 in 0514 AM 09/05 RAWS Stanhope 2.40 in 0515 AM 09/05 AWS 4 WSW Wantage Twp 2.31 in 1040 PM 09/04 Trained Spotter 1 SW Hopatcong 1.91 in 0518 AM 09/05 AWS Montague 1.88 in 0515 AM 09/05 CWOP 0.7 NE Flatbrookville 1.64 in 0500 AM 09/05 HADS Wallkill River Nwr 1.49 in 0456 AM 09/05 RAWS Sparta 1.45 in 0520 AM 09/05 CWOP Sussex 1.30 in 0509 AM 09/05 ASOS LAFAYETTE 1.19 in 0520 AM 09/05 CWOP Stockholm 1.07 in 0513 AM 09/05 CWOP 2.3 N Stockholm 1.01 in 0445 AM 09/05 HADS ...Warren County... Hackettstown 3.10 in 0519 AM 09/05 AWS Broadway 2.49 in 0516 AM 09/05 CWOP Phillipsburg 2.00 in 0430 AM 09/05 COOP Belvidere 1.00 in 0515 AM 09/05 CWOP

It seems that a FFA may be needed for the I95 corridor tomorrow afternoon-night, or possibly a little west of, despite the still normal or below normal stream flows. Presuming the NWS, which tends to be conservative and does not issue a FFA, then it wont surprise if an isolated FFW or two will be needed. PWAT larger than last night. Instability etc. Kids, they should not be playing along side streams in NNJ this morning or late Sat. All SPC HREF leading up to last nights event... POOR. Finally: midweek event for Tue night or Wed along the coasts is still in play but not counting on it. Need to focus on 16z Sat-16z Sunday.

Added August final USA temp and qpf departures to p1 of August (Sept 5 2025 posting).

Final at Wantage NJ 4sw: 2.68". mostly 520P/4-1255A/5. Ambient (AWN) slightly higher at 2.77 but surprisingly close. Walt 730A. Sept 5, 2025 First event had .56" at CP. Other climate site info attached fm NJ, NYS and CoCoRaHs attached. Also attached the woeful BOM 113 hours in advance... PLEASE use the Blend of Models as a starting point but not as gospel. NWS I think starts with this and then decides whether to make changes. The next session of BOM finally got it better. Have to be careful relying on BOM. This pattern had the signals back in late August as in p1 of this Sept post including the CPC 6-10D and my 8/27 ensemble anticipation. Need to use ensembles... realizing that in CONVECTION--- the ensemble avg bleeds outward from the max axis... ensembling globals is not as accurate as mesoscale.

Here's some weather underground numbers in Sussex County and adjacent Orange County se NYS. These might be a tad high but I think 1.5-2" totals are reaL. My part of Wantage NJ on my Ambient reading 2.05. It cant handle intense rainfall rates an tips too much. I'll have a number inn the morning. Sort of surprised WPC and PHI have nothing out up here. Radarscope 1 hr and STP's look accurate. Been thundering here for at least 30 minutes per my dog Ollie barking (Cairn). Click for clarity.

Wantage NJ. Ambient says 1.91" and rising fast. Reality is less... probably 1.5" at least since 5P. Suspect there is going to be some flooding here in the hills of nw Nj and interior se NYS.

These NJ climate site #'s are correct... and match Radar Acopte Digital 1 hr and STP accums... .48 at my house in Wantage. Click image for clarity.

No timing insights. Periodic showers late Thu-Sunday. ALL 12z/3 global ensembles are continuing to increase amounts into the 1/2-spot 2" range I95 west and less east . So the dry stats may pan out accurate (dry stats for CP), but I have to go with dynamics and until I see all the modeling fade, I'll believe heavier than WPC's 12z/3 capped 1/3rd inch. Weak frontal event Thu night. Front hangs back Fri... next Event(s) this weekend as new frontal system approaches and slowly passes through during the weekend. Timing of convection and the marginal instability are factors to consider. Next week may? get interesting (Sep 10-15). Ensembles already baggy trough along eastern seaboard at 5H.

In the meantime, I like how this coming week is shaping up for rainfall. Won't uprise if sct light showers develop Tue or Wed, and think WPC is too conservative by 1/2" on its total week 1 forecast (00z/30 cycle) for our NYC subforum. Am in the 1/2-2" bracket for starters between Thu-Sat. Have a day. Thanks Don for the Sep stats earlier this thread and Bluewave for the continuing updates on temp stats. The new monthly outlook by CPC.