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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ You can search by state, date etc. STORM DATA.
  2. wdrag
    CoCoRaHs snowfall yesterday, parts of the widespread 1/2-1" qpf the past 24 hours ending about 8AM. I know its less than I anticipated I80-II84 corridor NYC WEST to nw NJ and the Pocs. The icing is making up for it... Click for clarity if interested.
  3. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 935A 31.1 and drizzling drizzle. Radial thickness 0.20 and branches, small trees coming down. Power outages so far scattered but you can see are increasing in CT/PA and soon e NYS. Will try to get pics out soon.
  4. wdrag
    I saw Bluewave EC High res post but if it hits those numbers its for 3 hours only in mid afternoon. For one thing... a south wind is now drawing on modified cold off the ocean and interior NJ down to BWI. yes it can hit those values but if the wind goes light south and shifts strong west, it wont grab the coastal NJ warmth. There is time... imo, unless someone disagrees (lets have it!), the EC AI had nailed this days in advance a reason for my alarming post a couple days ago about icing and branches. EC AI is only 6 hourly for me but it's good. On sunny days I view out as a BL T (add 10 for a max). On precip days, its the number within 2F.
  5. wdrag
    Pressure fall modulations as wind blows into pressure falls if he ardent is not strong. Allows pockets of colder air nearly to to your north-northeast to return for a little while. Still 30.2F here in Wantage. NAM3K and ECAI 2meters temps seems to have the east fit.
  6. wdrag
    Wantage NJ: 610AM report... estimating radial glaze now about 0.15". its accumulated further top side and now bottom as well on rose bush branches. HARD ice on deck. temp briefly up to 30.2 around 4A but has since dropped to 29.7. fwiw: 350 meters without power near High Point NJ.
  7. wdrag
    Lots going on here the next 24 hours, mesoscale Pres falls alter wind directions-hourly temps radically near the freezing line boundary I84 corridor with icing continuing well into the morning higher terrain there. Presuming it does rise into the upper 30s there this afternoon, ice on branches will drop and melt on you-cars, and helps limit bigger damage from the 50+MPH gusts coming late this afternoon into tomorrow morning. The rapidly intensifying storm as crosses I84 or I80 (occluding) imo argues for the powerful winds and scattered power outages coming. Not impossible to have SVR's issue mid-late afternoon I80 southward in the warm sector. I'll try to support with reports but after 2PM, probably a no show most of the time with GrandPa duties.
  8. wdrag
    Good Sunday morning everyone, As you're assessing... I've no change to this headline. Might adjust it Monday if I can shorten the window of opportunity. Despite several ops missing to the southeast of us, the strength of coming shortwave, and the already in place snowstorm for the Delmarva-nw 1/3rd NC (ice remainder of the interior Carolinas) tells me we'll at least be on the northern fringe of a 2-6" powder event. Room for error and the debate will continue but I'm in for snow entire NYC subforum, just how much (WPC overnight shift continues 30-50% chance for more than 3" here). This might be the last solid opportunity for Feb, with cold air in place. It wont be a KU but like yesterday's 0.2-1.8" snowfall for much of the NYC subforum, it adds up to a nice Feb, presuming my own perception from the 00z/16 ensembles is correct. Probably my last on this today and baby sitting tonight-Tue AM so time will be shorter.
  9. wdrag
    Wantage NJ: 3A. 0.10 glaze on top of the 0.8" snow yesterday afternoon. 29.3F. Glaze eyeballed on rose bush. Definitely thicker than a couple days ago. Walt
  10. wdrag
    Wantage NJ - this part: 0.8 snow-sleet, T freezing rain at 655PM. 28/27. Next report around 6A.
  11. wdrag
    I just Central Park webcam... snow on grass and bushes. CLI might have spoken with a person? Just have no idea what goes on there.
  12. wdrag
    NYC CP has had .07 melted as of 5PM... at temp about freezing. Not sure what the snowboard will say, nor what Manhattanites are seeing but there has to be measurable there...even with settling. Wantage NJ 0.8" at 5P and s-- lull.
  13. wdrag
    Wantage Nj, this part 1/2" at 330PM. Roads and driveways getting slushy. 27..
  14. wdrag
    Wantage NJ - this part 0.3" at 240P. 27/25
  15. wdrag
    Wantage NJ first 0.1" on the ground at 140P. all surfaces covered except treated roads and some driveways.
  16. wdrag
    WPC axis for Wed-THU. Similar. WPC not convinced on big amounts NYC. This looks more important for Delmarva.
  17. wdrag
    Snow and leet will cool 7PM temps to near 32-33F, especially cooler wet bulbs. HRRR is a little slow, EC better. sky here in Wantage filled with small flake snow 29/19.
  18. wdrag
    a few flurries from time to time 130PM onward in Wantage. 16z HRRR temps seem a little too warm in precip DC_BWI-PHLLY se PA area.
  19. wdrag
    Of continuing interest to me... ECAI...06z versions says you dont get above freezing (maybe 36F-corrected at 1129AM down 10F) til between 2P-6P tomorrow... Understated event I think north of I84 and combo snow and ice is imo probably warnable but just my opinion. I just don't understand our sticking snowfall/ice accumulation criteria in mixed events. We seem not to be growing more understanding overall impact... probably don't want individual forecasters going rogue... I just dont understand. Protecting life and property is our job... at T24, we need to be thinking going for the best possible, despite criteria-not by thinking about the lowest warmest elevation appreciation of our forecast. The graphic below is the WSSI-P experimental conservative probabilities for MODERATE impact, with population-urban influencing the probs.
  20. wdrag
    fwiw:06ZEC AI west and has us in. Depends on how much this upper low closes into NYS whether its more amped like CMC /EC or weaker faster GFS/GEFS.
  21. wdrag
    This thread should essentially close out the multi event thread, transferring event comments and serving to report snow/ice obs later today-tonight, rainfall totals sometime Sunday, followed by wind gust reports 50MPH or greater including damaging wind late Sunday afternoon-midday Monday. One graphic added is the ECMWF EPS max wind gust graphic 1PM Sunday-!PM Monday... highest gusts showing up on the ridges and mainly late Sunday afternoon-midday Monday. Sometimes this graphic can be too strong with wind gusts 5 to 10 MPH less than modeled... still even if its a little less, the strong wind is probably gong to impact some of us late Sunday-Monday morning. The hope for our I84 friends is that the east facing slopes of the hills above 1000 feet will see temps rise above freezing tomorrow morning to melt snow and ice off the branches (watch for falling frozen debris) or widespread power outages would develop, especially Catskills-Litchfield Hills and possibly the northern Poconos. As it stands, some power outages expected here and there and probably a good idea to shelter everything that is vulnerable and preventable from some damage. AI ECMWF 2m 6 hr temps have risen a bit cyclically through the 00z/15 cycle but still looks problematic whether it rises above freezing north of I94 Sunday. No matter, that region along and N of I84 should try to safely remove snow and ice early Sunday afternoon from travel ways, or it will probably freeze solid Sunday evening and remain through the work week.
  22. wdrag
    OBS thread will be up in a few minutes...
  23. wdrag
    Good morning... no headline change to tighten up the window of opportunity for the midweek snow... and it's seriousness. WPC did not upgrade the 1/4" frozen qpf probs in the megalopolis swath in its mid shift production, still having us on the 1/4-1/2" edge of qpf. fwiw...what I've told my FB group...Next Wed-Thu Feb 19-20 northeast USA: Think about options if delays in powdery snow sometime in this period, We're not sure if this will be the big snow storm of the winter for the DC-BOS megalopolis as advertised by the Canadian and European models or a grazer as proposed by the United States modeling but there will be a period of snow. We just dont know how serious. Dont make flight - outdoor plan changes yet, but think about your options, especially I95 corridor to the coast. ---- The attached is experimental, objective and tends to be conservative, especially longer ranges. Also attached the 00z/15 GEFS-CMCE around a 50 member blend which offers a 3-6" snow event here on LI-NYC... sort of a general idea. This adjusts with time as the model ensembles adjust. Not a done deal on snowfall... imo a good way to play this... snow coming but how much? I noticed the GEFS doesn't want to close off the upper low in NYS and even the EPS is faster and slightly less amped. I definitely am not thinking blizzard or anything like that right now... one has to consider faster-weaker-further east trend but maybe it will still produce a nice 4+ snowfall DC-BOS?
  24. wdrag
    I'll set the OBS thread for this final piece of the thread at 8AM tomorrow. When it begins which will probably be NOON Saturday-6PM Monday. I'll define it as snow/ice reports (most on LI/NYC will be through 10PM Sat), then I'll add damaging wind gusts and recommend gust reports 50+MPH for Sun night-Monday, and if you wish... you can add but certainly not necessary, your FEB rain totals through the 16th. The attached map sets the baseline of about where we are the first 2 weeks. WPC has us generally 1.5" qpf here by Sunday evening. Maybe we'll have CP Feb snow total by tomorrow nights 1AM CLINYC, up to near 8"? There's a chance ... depending snow qpf and melting on contact.
  25. wdrag
    All ensembles at 5H similar t 144 hrs. That's good! I definitely like " snow likely" Thu. WPC has pretty high probs for D6 frozen here... all ensembles have snow. So there's a 30% it wont snow... do we say chance? I say not... in fact its why I'm still on the forum and doing my FB stuff. It's because we don't say enough soon enough... we see it in modeling and may say it in the AFD but the forecasts don't necessarily broadcast it cause we have a conservative approach, afraid to be wrong etc. We can do much much better telling folks 5-6 days in advance what is coming... in broad sense and these threads demo. Not always right but certainly better than a 50/50 coin toss when you use cyclic ensembles to build confidence. Modeling science is ahead of us using guidance to our preparation advantage.
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