wdrag

OK.

Traces of snow on the ground and/or in the air I84 high terrain, Poconos to w MA and CT overnight. Attached qpf verifies the Canadian and ECMWF modeling from 00z/20 with the GFS/GEFS continuing relatively poor verification against these global models. SPC HREF did not capture the event properly until 00z/21... 3-6 hours before occurrence. I continue to monitor-rely on EC AI versus other mode modeling for wintry vs rain. ECAI many consecutive cycles continues to announce a hazardous snow ice event I84 corridor, mainly North of I84 Monday morning...suggesting winter driving habits, slower travel and /or travel delays should be in mind for those having to move along I84 higher terrain Monday morning in a healthy event.

Good Thursday morning everyone I84 corridor, Welcome spring -March 20! Nothing big for our I84 corridor members which includes se NYS, w CT, ne PA north of I78 and nw NJ hills of Sussex, Warren, Passaic and Morris counties. A little wet snow will occur with the rains from time to time beginning early Friday morning (tomorrow) into the first week of April. Robins snow or maybe a touch more sometime next Monday, Wednesday mornings and next weekend. No details since no confidence on amounts but you will see a little bit of snow on the grass, at the least. Tomorrow morning might have a few icy spots near sunrise as rain ends as a little wet snow in the hills and temps fall below freezing. Probably no big deal. I'll update this Sunday morning regarding next weeks possible minor snow hazards for the I84 corridor. Again, welcome spring!

I've seen some posts about possible wet snow events around 3/21 AM and 3/24-25 etc. For now am not buying in... looks like a smidge of snow on the backside for I84, mainly elevations but that could change. My main reason for not jumping on it is the EC AI which has lost some faithfroma. few days ago... ie no closing off aloft and slowing soon enough for us..best for coastal NNE 3/21. The 3/24-25 event looks like the jet structure favors inland low pressure into N NYS... mainly too warm down here. Still could change but for now, am not enthusiastic about either.

Wind no thread. The 00z/16 SPC HREF MINIMUM wind gust forecast for 22z/16. This would suggest a wind advisory situation for at least coastal NJ to southern LI. This would also cover marginal svr cells that dont have clear cut severe markers and could go either way, especially their isolated damage nature. The lead time would be much larger. Not my call, but for me big wind is big wind, no matter clear air, shower or Tstorm related. 6z/16 NAM FOUS, my own rule of thumb precursor signals including BL wind exceeding 26KT. Hopefully no one finds a big tree branch on their car. SPC HREF indicators of isolated (spotty) 3" rainfall totals by tomorrow night in the NYC subforum, risk of primarily NJ/LI/CT. Graphic added. Brown is 45 MPH plus for 22z today. We'll see how it works out. It's the MIN gust model expectation.

I84 corridor: Aside from decent rain 3/4-2" and spotty 45-50 MPH wind gusts by 12z Monday (isolated power outages but not as extensive for us as 3/6-7), all consecutive cycles available on Pivotal of the ECAI are giving snow accumulation to the I84 corridor this coming Friday morning (3/21). Am monitoring for possible continued consistency. Would be nice to add on some sloppy wet snow to 25.6 here in this part of Wantage. Will check back next week.

vsby 3/4SW- here in Wantage NJ. melting as it falls 31.5 down from earlier--916A Trace of whitening on grass/dirt but only a T and snowboards wet. 919A. sun out,

So this is the best we can do in what was once a long-long outlook (Feb 27 start) for a hazardous wintry snow event here this 3/6-10 period. Flurries now, maybe again tomorrow morning, maybe again Sunday night? Northern stream didnt deepen-dig quite as much modeled, probably because it left the southern stream energy behind so no phasing. Flurries are not a victory,but the chosen period was reasonable when outlooked earlier in the thread. More opportunities for 3/17 and beyond. First we may see heavy rain and high wind next weekend. No threads.

Yesterdays 12z/6 SPC HREF kind of missed the 1-2" swath along and e of I95. I dont think most of the modeling had NYC-LI close to what occurred.

CoCoRaHs 2/2-3/6. Not too bad on GEFS prediction around 2/1. Not all correct but more so than not... Here tis. If interested click for clarity.

Wind advisory type events: IF, group wants an OBS thread for the isolated damaging gusts of 60MPH and somewhat more widespread 46MPH gusts I 80 south in PA/NJ, and across LI in the 3PM-midnight time frame, let me know. Otherwise just post here... we're getting 50+ now Delmarva. A repeat wind advisory episode should occur along and NORTH of I80- especially I84 corridor ridges midnight-Noon Friday morning including Poconos, much of CT, nw NJ, Southern NYS and probably marginally into LI. That one is the CAA backside segment. ALSO, Bob Harts wind extreme web site etc is discontinued due to Federal Funding issues. That means you have to go to other sources to keep up with max gusts. fwiw below: Comparison of drought monitor a year ago... borrowed from another link.

Two successive runs, 12z-18z/3, of enough members of the GEFS to phase and run us a nor'easter snowstorm the 9th. No other ensembling is close to the GEFS so, it could be - easy come easy go - if no phasing with the the southern Rockies remains of a closed low. The only thing I can say is that this fits days of ensembling that least some snow would occur I84 corridor with the GEFS tending to be most certain in the cyclic variations. Check back tomorrow to see if its gone or other modeling supports.

I look at GEFS monthlies out to 35 days... the data proposed on FEB 1 for our area through March 7 was pretty good... only short by half a foot on snowfall nw NJ-ne PA and near Asheville. Otherwise I thought helpful and the rainfall will work out to between 3-5" by the time Match 7 arrives.. already sitting at 2.25-3.5" the past month and the storm of 3/5 coming. That will have been good. That said... I add the GEFS through 4/1 as issued 00z/2. Take it for what its worth... keeping us steady in drought but not alarmingly short the next 4 weeks with some robins snow possibilities for NYC, and shovelable inches I84 corridor (yes I think we're all going to see a little snow here 3/6-3/10). So here goes. {+ snow depth change, 10-1 ratio snowfall, rainfall (yellow 4, browns 5+), modeled drought change which looks to me to be too conservative east slopes of the Rockies where drying and following summer heat may be a little more pronounced than currently outlooked and the drought monitor as of last week. For us in NYC... guidance might be a little high but I suspect close to 4" by the time March ends. It all starts 3/5. We can go back and check April 2... places along the east coast where I've drought concern is MD south. It's only a model ensemble, but I think we'll rainfall within an inch of modeled up here... and snowfall is more uncertain but for I84 its not a shutout.

Wantage NJ low 15.1 with wind and another slight dusting of snow on the ground by 5AM. Small possibly hazardous snow for the period 3/8-10 continues to look good, also now 3/14-16 period mixed. Small chance damaging wind potential Wed aft/eve convection, looks potentially somewhat more significant on NW flow across the ridges Thu night. Optics on WPC D7 qpf and chance 4" of snow (3z-05z/2) doesn't seem well coordinated. Problems for the public could start cropping up very soon on weather information dissemination from government sources.

Large differences between 00z/1 GEFS vs EPS-GEPS for 3/8-10. The latter two ensembles do not permit the southern system from coming north. From looking at the 5H 06z/1 ensemble members... it appears to me that a southern system will come north to affect our area with hazardous snow... that's my opinion only, probably more 3/9. I'll only back down when the GEFS shows WESTERLY flow here and confluence south of I80. All the 192hr 06z/1 green 5H members in the TN Valley is what I'm monitoring for change in the future. Alsmot looks like we're trying to separate streams. One day at a time.

All 12z/28 ensembles have the only 15 day chance of a widespread wintry hazard for the I84 corridor March 8-9. No there comment til this weekend.

As far I'm concerned, we're still in the game for the 8th-9th... modeling all over the place. There is no ECAI EPS yet... give this 3 more days to ferret out the multiple solutions. We should know by wakeup 3/4 whether there is a legit risk for a hazardous weather event. Trop tidbits is much faster displaying the ECAI MSLP and qpf. while Pivotal so far, is slower on delivery but much more info including snowfall.

It did...spotty traces and nice look for 15-20 minutes around 715A, mostly colder surfaces but roads and most of driveway wet and no new salting. Saw this morning 0.2" snowfall ne PA - w of PJ - north of I84.

No big deal? Trace here. Roads have to be wet there, just like here.

fwiw.... 12z/27 EC AI already out... further s and pretty big for wintry event I84. Has to be wrong... only 1 member. Can't count on this. Ditto 3 cycles of the GEFS 24 hr snow depth change showing 1-3" accums I84. I'll leave it alone for a day of cycles to see if anything continues significant FOR US. This is the only widespread hope on the horizon for our area so far and it's in the realm of low reliability.

Two days later, March 5-6 event mostly wet (except maybe tail end?), but March 8-early 9 imo continues to look decent for a widespread wintry hazard I84 corridor. The ECAI will have to warm up in future cycles to prevent a slippery accumulation of ice and wet snow mainly just north of I84. Models waffling here, back and forth. Not writing this off. 06z/27 AI 2m temp pretty cold throughout the event just n of I84 and marginal (33-34F) just s of I84 where its maybe too warm for snow. This 32F 2M temp is even with the warmer northward shift since 00z/27. ECAI seems a bit too strong of a storm but definitely a nice following short wave to the 3/6 short wave. For us up here I84 corridor, I think we're in the game but not the kind of pure snow I like to see. GRAPHCAST 2M T is.a little warm but 850 cold enough for snow accumulating in elevations entire I84 corridor. I will monitor for something hazardous 9 days (3/8) in advance and see if it holds, and maybe a comeback tail end on 3/5...again I84 corridor interests.

I think this is pretty good... YES Poconos had big early season and damaging snow storm with 10-20+" wet snow.

Ensembles say we're in the game even if LI is shut out the next two weeks. North of I84 has a little hazardous covering early Thursday (snow or ice). Outlook beyond for the I84 corridor: while there might be a minor less than 2" event there in the hills this weekend, the more widespread risk for a period of hazardous snow and ice exists between March 6-10. Too early to be sure, since those events could end up wet, but if you like snow, March 6-10 is the better opportunity. AFTER March 12, a potentially lengthy eastern USA warmup should develop that could result in periodic much above normal temps between roughly March 12-21-looking like springlike conditions.

So far: This looks pretty accurate...