wdrag
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OBS for OKX Flood Watch (attached) into early Saturday 5/10/25
wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
CoCoRaHs climate observers 24 hr qpf ending 845A/9 Click for clarity.
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OBS for OKX Flood Watch (attached) into early Saturday 5/10/25
wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I still dont quite understand the Watch in our area and its expansion but going with it. NYS mesonet all under 1" so far. NJ however, this is legit. Click for clarity. Wantage fits with at least 1.34 so far... needed.
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Added an OBS thread for the OKX Flood Watch. Am not enthused as I'd like to be, mainly due to antecedent conditions but potential does exist for spot 4" amounts se NYS, W CT... basically within the axis of most modeling heaviest rain northwest of I-95. Seems like the FFG is on the higher side but training - repeat episodes could result in spot flooding within the OKX Flood Watch. CT RVR Flood warning is minor at this time and may not crest til the weekend. Have a good night.
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OBS for OKX Flood Watch (attached) into early Saturday 5/10/25
wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Wantage NJ 0.62 125P-7P. -
Isolated 4" rainfall possible by daybreak Saturday for w CT, se NYS where OKX has issued a flood watch this Friday afternoon 5/8/25. Most modeling has a needed 1-3" spread out over a 36-42 hour period ending Saturday morning. Flood guidance suggests we'll need 2.5" in a 6 hour period for flooding. Lesser rainfall LI NJ and ne PA under 1.5". A snapshot of ensemble forecasts showing minor flooding anticipated at several gages in the north part of the NYC subforum. Long ways to go. We'll add some CoCoRaHs amounts at 9A Friday and see where we stand.
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Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 0.41" 125P-2P in my stratus (0.45 on my AWN). So the .41 matches the OHP,THP,STP seen at 220PM this afternoon off DIX. No thread at this time... if NWS drops a watch on I84 I lmght add a thread...that seems where iso 4" reports should occur between today-12z Sat. Unlikely thread at this time.
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No thread for 1-3" interior late Thu-early Fri. Antecedent not quite high enough. Samples attached of actual rainfall via CoCoRaHs and NYS Mesonet. (Fri-Tue). (click for clarity) Also yesterdays hail reports near our area in green...not necessarily severe hail.
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Storms late this afternoon might be hailers
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Kittatinny Ridge-Appalachian Trail in western and northern SC and the Del River on the west side might play a role. I agree w your obs.
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Good Tuesday morning... CoCoRaHs maps attached and NYS MESONET. Depending on how extensive there SVR storm rainfall this afternoon I95 northwestward, I expect much of what was outlooked last week for qpf to verify. Next one Thu night-Friday might need a thread due to antecedent conditions. Still waiting a day to see what this afternoon-evening yields. Click for clarity if you're interested. Heading for spot 8" in the far northern part of the forum.
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Kittatinny Ridge-Appalachian Trail in western and northern SC and the Del River on the west side might play a role. I agree w your obs.
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NJ and NYS mesonrtd have about 2.3” near High Point NJ and Port Jervis NY. Am remote so can’t verify but am sure SR23 washout is legit. Don’t know how serious.
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Report of a road washout in Sussex county NJ where fall rates were nearly 3.5 per hour a couple hours ago. SR23 out of high point state park. Saw other mPING reps of flooding W Sussex county. While my AWN reads high. At VA least 1.3” past 24
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No changes in my posted amounts yesterday which favors 3-6 I95 Inland iso 8 which is modeling Catskills right now ends Wed eve.
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No changes in my model thinking above. No thread from myself at this time. Will try and check back tomorrow. 231pm/2
