wdrag

In the meantime, I like how this coming week is shaping up for rainfall. Won't uprise if sct light showers develop Tue or Wed, and think WPC is too conservative by 1/2" on its total week 1 forecast (00z/30 cycle) for our NYC subforum. Am in the 1/2-2" bracket for starters between Thu-Sat. Have a day. Thanks Don for the Sep stats earlier this thread and Bluewave for the continuing updates on temp stats. The new monthly outlook by CPC.

Well reviewed. I can’t quibble. Main thing for favorable decent event is a southern short wave separation from northern Jet, eventually shoving northeast. That option is still there if it’s weak then not so good for rain. WPC starting to show rainfall D7 and CPC with new 6-10 D outlooks etc around 3-4p

at least you got your surprise .20 two nights ago... we've traced the past couple of afternoon-evenings. I didnt check CoCoRaHs and the Mesonet climate sites but am sure there were some meager amounts. Grandsitting another day or two.

Updated 654A/28: I am seeing a probable approximate 1/2-2" rain event or periodic rains between Tue and Sat of next week. 00z/28 Ensembles coming into agreement with fairly substantial high amplitude troughing near and west of 80W longitude the middle of next week. Who gets 2 and who gets relatively meager 1/2" far too early but finally in my viewer assembling, a more widespread event appears on the distant ensemble horizon. The 2" reference is not necessarily the high end.

fwiw...5H pattern is looking interesting for me here as of the 06z/27 ensembles. my interest is west of I95 where it's been pretty darn dry since the 22nd. Am I seeing opportunity for for 1/2-2" of rain in nw NJ next week beginning periodically Monday night Sept 1?

Sept thread started... this above added to Sept.

Am not using GEFS predictors etc beyond 2 weeks and messing up the anticipation mid month onward, like the August 2025 post. Instead I've added the 6-10 day issued yesterday, as well as the page you can go to look at CPC's daily updates of 6-10, 8-14 day, the weekly Friday updates of the 2-3 week and twice monthly updates of the monthly outlook, as well as other occasionally helpful predictors, based on the still nascent developing long ranging science beyond 2 weeks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

If all goes well I'll get Sept thread started by 8PM. fwiw...5H pattern is looking interesting for me here, west of I95 where it's been pretty darn dry since the 22nd. Am I seeing opportunity for for 1/2-2" of rain in nw NJ next week beginning periodically Monday night?

fwiw on Erin along he NJ coast per PHI PNS yesterday... I added this in, cause I didnt see it posted. If I erred, I apologize. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 703 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...Sussex County... Dewey Beach 46 MPH 1136 AM 08/21 WXFLOW Lewes NOS 43 MPH 1136 AM 08/21 NOS-NWLON Lewes 43 MPH 1142 AM 08/21 WXFLOW Rehoboth Beach 42 MPH 1134 AM 08/21 AWS Rehoboth Beach 42 MPH 1205 PM 08/21 DAVIS Indian River Bay Dewey Beach 41 MPH 1145 AM 08/21 DEOS2 Georgetown 40 MPH 1105 AM 08/21 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Atlantic County... Atlantic City 46 MPH 0230 PM 08/21 NJWXNET BRIGANTINE 41 MPH 0444 PM 08/21 CWOP 1 NE Brigantine 41 MPH 0449 PM 08/21 Public ...Cape May County... Cape May 44 MPH 1235 PM 08/21 DAVIS 1 NW Wildwood 42 MPH 1239 PM 08/21 Public Ocean City 41 MPH 1115 AM 08/21 CWOP Ocean City 41 MPH 1157 AM 08/21 WXFLOW ...Monmouth County... Keyport 48 MPH 0524 AM 08/21 CWOP ...Ocean County... Surf City 49 MPH 0245 PM 08/21 Public 2 S Island Beach State Park 48 MPH 1014 AM 08/21 Public Rutgers 45 MPH 0323 PM 08/21 WXFLOW Tuckerton 44 MPH 0149 PM 08/21 WXFLOW Seaside Heights 43 MPH 0817 AM 08/21 WXFLOW Harvey Cedars 43 MPH 0235 PM 08/21 NJWXNET South Seaside Park 40 MPH 0817 AM 08/21 CWOP Holgate 40 MPH 1019 AM 08/21 Public Beach Haven 40 MPH 1021 AM 08/21 CWOP Trixies 40 MPH 1137 AM 08/21 WXFLOW ...Delaware... ...Maritime Stations... 19 E Fenwick Island 45 MPH 0229 PM 08/21 Buoy 1 ENE Lewes 42 MPH 1136 AM 08/21 Buoy ...New Jersey... 9 WNW Cape May Point 45 MPH 1048 AM 08/21 Buoy 1 NNE Brigantine 44 MPH 0259 PM 08/21 Public Sea Bright 43 MPH 0409 AM 08/21 Public &&

Kind of embarrassing for the GEFS/CMCE early Monday morning guidance that was relied upon for the WPC dry product for Wednesday 8/21. Our p45 815AM post had it all documented, with the EPS suite clearly indicating something along the lines of what happened. It's not always EPS/EC superior to the GFS suite but I am getting disappointed. Had this been winter, I think the forum would have been lit with posts. As it was, this snuck by... possibly most not caring, despite science allowing for consideration. No doubt the was a meaningful rain for all of us, alleviating some of the recent summer dryness. The rainfall accumulation graphics attached demonstrate. Also, while not a clear cut PRE, this qpf event was well in advance of Erin-an indirect influence on what happened here as you well know from watching radar. The PRE composite was helpful for me as meteorologist, attempting to gauge what might happen in our NYC subforum. MESOSCALE excesses: DID happen in se NYS and se CT, per attached NYC FFW, attached digital rainfall output which showed the 5" max, AND, weather underground two day report of 4.89" near Boutonville NYS (Old Post Rd) via station KNYSOUTH137. I did not check many stations there but you can get the drift. I have to clear some attachments so the attachments will complete at 915A and the attached at 915AM may not be in correct order, but if you're interested check all of this information presented. My house in Wantage NJ only 1.04 11A/20-6A/21.

Not threading but will be interesting this afternoon-tonight. from my view of multi modeling...one axis of potential excessive is near I90 to ne CT-RI, and a secondary axis from Monmouth-Ocean Counties to e LI. Whether out NYC subforum sees isolated 2-5", I'm unsure so no thread. Will post the 24 hour amounts via CoCoRaHs around 845A Thursday.

Follow NWS-NHC. Will hold off thread due to uncertainty locating 5"+ bands but I think we're looking at some surprise heavy amounts (2-5") late Wed-early Thu but where. Will rereview this evening and again tomorrow morning for a more a confident expression of bands Erin indirect but I think related heavy rain. For now the ensembles are generalized-spread out. EC/EPS/ECAI have been onto this for quite a few cycles. Here's some graphics: EPS 12z/19 prob of 1"+ 24 hr amount by Thu AM. I think its within these magenta 50% prob that iso 5+ will occur. For now it's a marginal risk from WPC on FF rain. SPC HREF has iso 5-7"+ MAX POTENTIAL rain in the tan areas including coastal NJ 12z EC OP has been slipping swd with the max axis rainfall but it's very close to our area off of s LI to coastal NJ...see the graphic. Finally, how about the EPS Max 6hr G ending 2A Friday showing TS gusts in our ocean waters, even possibly grazing the NJ shore. This is as far northwest as I've seen on the EPS which creeps our way... follow NHC/NWS. All other modeling is seaward and not as threatening. Follow NHC assessment-thank you. So there 18z NAM12K/NAM 3K like GEFS-CMCE... I90 NYS-MA Not a confidence booster for locating near 5" axis as seen on the 18z NAM3K. No thread yet. Rechecking tonight and Wed AM. 432P/

No thread until 230PM: PRE seems in play but best axis for 2-4" rain, isolated 5" is unknown though may be favoring LI or NJ. Just too soon. It's banded so some folks only 1/4" and others rejoice in 2+. 12z/19 guidance may be helpful. Timing of wetting event (positive impact imo for many in recent drought) is Noon Wed-Noon Thu. While impacts positive for needed rain, I think there will be fairly high negative impact Wed even-Thu AM commutes in and out of NYC. Second part of a potential thread is the unknown, whether TS gusts will reach s LI and Nj coasts (gusts 40-50 MPH) later Thu. Possibility of moderate coastal flooding, mainly NJ coast Thu eve. Rip currents and high surf are a given.

May issue a thread tomorrow morning for general 1/2-2" drought relieving rain event 10Z Wed-10z Thu, isolated 5". Too early, especially since 18z WPC less than 0.1" this week NYC subforum as too the 13z BOM. Meanwhile 12z EPS/EPS AI increasing since 00z cycles. 12z NAM had the idea of iso 3+. Again way too early for me but either physics is out to lunch or something else is wrong with my thinking. PRE conceptual sampler added. Just shift the modeling a bit too the east. Everything now within the 42-84 time hr frame.

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring. I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread. Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum. Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF.