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wdrag

Meteorologist
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About wdrag

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KFWN
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wantage, NJ (8 mi south of High Point Monument - 3mi w KFWN)
  • Interests
    Relevancy into my 90s, family doing well-enjoying life, running, cycling, ATL Braves system, Weather Science.

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  1. So, this is a new tool to use for many on here... click the 0 hour on IWT or IVT and then use your arrow keys to slide through the model guidance. This is GFS and NAM only op runs. However, you see something of what Blue wave wrote. Also, imo, the second event late this coming week may have some of Hurricane Rick RH in it. Take a look at the eastern side of the storm. https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/ivt_iwv_namerica/
  2. WPC 7 day qpf. Everything inside the red contour is 5". I would have to think media is going to have to start arousing concern. It is not everyday that WPC puts out 5 and 6" weekly contours in our area. I will add FF to the tag now. I am aware that river flooding might be the more common result of these events later this week, but I have to think FF will occur when intense rains are continuous for 3-6hours at 1"/hr rates. FF added at about 430P/23.
  3. We are seeing some very large #'s this week for the NYC subforum. Also some of the modeling doesn't agree in the GFS/NAM/EC modeling which i do believe...it's where. 12z/23 GFS as I'm sure you saw has 8" for NYC this coming week. I would necessarily focus in on NYC itself but somewhere in our forum, there seems to be a pretty good chance of spot 7-9" amounts by Halloween. Attached is the new midday NWS WPC ensembled approach to next Fri-Sat. We'll see what happens, if this occurs as predicted but the potential exists for somewhere along and N of I80 up into central NYS-central New England. Those reds are about 3-4.5". Will append the new 7 day totals at about 4P as my time allows and available from WPC. Modeling also is suggesting two separate storm occurrences of 850MB 70 knot se inflow. Again we/I don't know anything for sure, but am confident some validated warning events are coming next week. Where, am unsure... there can be important shifts but the focus continues here, somewhere in our area.
  4. Courtesy Weather.US as are many of the graphics I post. Look at these 06z/ECMWF OP graphics. I don't think it's too early to lean hard on EC ideas. It's just a matter of severity and location that it begins. That's 5" of rain e LI and 5+ Ct River Valley. Possibly too much or mis located. Part of this has the 06z/23 EC raising PW to 2" near LI.
  5. Bring the umbrella... follow the HRRR for today. Forecasts and outlooks look a little weak this weekend through next week with little heads up of the coming and already in progress dismal weather. Had drizzle/sprinkles last evening here in nw NJ per prior Mping reports. (EC did the best with its new convective scheme, especially the midnight ish showers that occurred here early Friday morning). It's raining now (650A) here in Wantage and more to come today... a rather chilly and occasionally wet day here in far nw NJ, probably closer to the city too. Tomorrow's forecasts seem too optimistic. This all plays into cutting grass and outdoor chores putting away summer stuff. Probably off line most of the morning, Walt
  6. Good Saturday morning everyone, Prepare for adverse weather, possible power outages and possible flood related problems, especially north of I80 next week. The first of the real deal rainfall probably begins Sunday evening-night with evolution of a nor'easter by late Tuesday, followed by a second large scale event though possibly of a differing more inside runner flavor, next Friday-Saturday. Details tbd but here are some graphics to ponder. I'll probably add FF to the tags late Sunday or Monday pending further model confirmation, and SVR will be reserved for last add but it's on the table. WPC has a minimum of 3" forecast for I80 north next week. Graphics below: This mornings D3 SVR outlook for Monday, The EC EPS 500MB pattern 00z/Wed (tue eve), the EC EPS sfc pattern for the same time, and then the GEFS as well at the same time, and finally a rather impressive EC EPS rainfall forecast for just our area...EPS have 5" in central MA (more to the east not seen here) and general 1-3" in our area.
  7. Active Pacific pattern assisting downstream northeast USA blocking of two large 500MB trough passages next week. This should result in at least one Nor'easter and possibly a classic fall severe weather event if a 985MB low moves northward through central PA. Max isolated rainfall potential of ~7" somewhere in the NYC subforum (interior) would lead to isolated Flash Flooding but the dry October of generally less than 1/2" so far in NYC 'should' limit the flash flood threat. There has been more rain I84 northward so the flood threat may eventually be targeting the interior NYS/CT portion of our forum. The general non-astronomically high tide cycles should at least partially limit the potential for moderate coastal flooding. Of greater concern appears to be softening of the ground by next weeks rains and the probability for a period of 45-55MPH wind gusts on fully leaved wet tree branches in parts of the area, which would lead to a power outage problem. At this Friday October 22 608AM issuance time, it's far too early to focus on the details. The headlines of this topic will adjust a bit as we move through the weekend, including tags. For now have left SVR and FF out of the tags.
  8. One other note. There is a high wind signal for parts of the area sometime next week and possibly svr as well. No thread yet but if these trends continue another day, will probably start one for damaging wind and spotty 4+ inches of rain in our subforum. Definitely will be active as compared to this week.
  9. As per several prior notes from others: 00z/21 cycle modeling continues the risk of a pretty decent storm in the northeast next week (or two storms?). Additionally, should something get going along the w Mexican coast and approach the Gulf of CA ~26th, some of its moisture may get involved in the northeast USA storminess ~ the 30th. Something to keep an eye on. Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI? and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good. The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking.
  10. Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI? and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good. The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking.
  11. Well I had my doubts and so maybe a small area will get some severe, but this does not look like much to me. In fact maybe someone will see small ice pellets tomorrow afternoon in the hilly burbs. My max gust in this part of Wantage NJ was about 27MPH. Was high based convection,
  12. Probably won't be around to keep up with anything w of NYC prior to 430P. Still seems like best chance for strong damaging storms and maybe a TOR is POU north... in other words, north of I84. However, the reality check is coming soon and so follow all NWS products. Thanks, Walt
  13. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=24&dim=1 click for water vapor
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