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dwagner88

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About dwagner88

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KCHA
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  • Location:
    Chattanooga, TN

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  1. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    Hammering down right now. Over 2” for the day. Looks like plenty more to come.
  2. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    MRX is notoriously stingy with Flash Flood Warnings for some reason. I've only been under a handful here my whole life.
  3. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    The radar does not look good for Knoxville. The convective cluster in southern middle TN needs to take on a more northerly motion right now. Looks to me like there may be an MCV forming causing the more easterly motion.
  4. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    Most of the globals did not have a good handle on the rain this evening even as late as the 12z runs today. GFS had me at around 0.10" by this time. I'm quickly closing in on 1".
  5. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    Some parts of Chattanooga had hail accumulation from the strong cell that came through last night.
  6. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    I work for TDOT. We had a crew parked on the shoulder of hwy 64 today just to respond quickly to small slides. There were already 2 this morning along parksville lake. One was starting to encroach on the westbound lane. There will be more by the end of the week.
  7. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    Thunder IMBY now. There is a lot of instability, but evidently not much forcing. Precip rates are pretty light. Only 0.30” here all day so far. Lots of thunder though.
  8. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    I’ve been in Polk Co at work all morning. It’s been sleeting on and off since I got here. Obvious bright banding on the radar means a changeover is iminent.
  9. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    As a basin average, it looks like expected totals for this week have dropped about 10-15%. I suspect the reduction in crest is due to that alone. It is, however, very difficult to predict runoff amounts with such a thoroughly saturated ground. I’m happy to see modeling reduce the extreme rain amounts shown over the weekend, but I would like to see some model consensus on a clear ending to this crappy wet pattern.
  10. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    That far NW corner of north Georgia is in the south chickamauga creek watershed. That creek represents the largest flood threat to the Chattanooga metro. It was impounded with levees after the 1973 floods. The last time they were tested was May 2003. We could have a comparable crest to that event next week.
  11. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    I don’t think I can remember ever seeing this much rain forecast with so little convection. Of the roughly 10” qpf at KCHA forecast next week, only 1.50” is convective on the 12Z GFS. Probably means the likelihood of totals busting high or low is minimal.
  12. dwagner88

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    It’s worth pointing out that it is still raining heavily in the last frame on the euro. Crazy stuff from the models. Hope it’s wrong.
  13. dwagner88

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    The miss this weekend worries me a bit for the southern portion of our forum area. From a climo perspective, the areas of NC that cashed in big time are very unlikely to have another snowfall of a similar size this year. This worries me because systems that create decent snows in the southern valley almost always create even better snows in those same areas of NC. Basically, if we were to get hammered in this area later in the winter, a lot of NC would break seasonal records downstream from us. This seems quite improbable. I hope we didn’t just waste our best shot.
  14. dwagner88

    Winter 2018-2019 Observations

    Been a while since I’ve checked in over here. It’s been wet. Extremely wet. To the point that I am very concerned about the development of freezing fog overnight. I am now over 60” of rain IMBY for the year. Had close to 4” of wasted 38 degree qpf from the big system this weekend and today.
  15. dwagner88

    Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    15.3" of rain on my project site in Ducktown, TN in the last 30 days. I'm ready for some dry weather, but it doesn't look likely any time soon. Good POP's every day except Saturday.
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