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About dwagner88

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Chattanooga, TN

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  1. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of Feb 17th

    That far NW corner of north Georgia is in the south chickamauga creek watershed. That creek represents the largest flood threat to the Chattanooga metro. It was impounded with levees after the 1973 floods. The last time they were tested was May 2003. We could have a comparable crest to that event next week.
  2. dwagner88

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of Feb 17th

    I don’t think I can remember ever seeing this much rain forecast with so little convection. Of the roughly 10” qpf at KCHA forecast next week, only 1.50” is convective on the 12Z GFS. Probably means the likelihood of totals busting high or low is minimal.
  3. dwagner88

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    It’s worth pointing out that it is still raining heavily in the last frame on the euro. Crazy stuff from the models. Hope it’s wrong.
  4. dwagner88

    1/28/19 - 1/29/19 Winter Storm Thread

    No it isn’t. Quite a lot of negativity in here. Could be a high impact event for the morning rush hour. I’m not sure why anybody was expecting a 3-5” storm out of this. That wasn’t going to happen in the lower elevations.
  5. dwagner88

    1/28/19 - 1/29/19 Winter Storm Thread

    Isn’t the HRRR built on analyzing radar reflectivity? Pretty difficult for it to be anything close to accurate more than 3-4 hours out. It’s garbage at the edge of its range. Can’t help but notice that the CHA snowshield has been reactivated on most modeling now. I may be able to escape that partially out in the eastern suburbs, but I wouldn’t expect more than a heavy dusting between signal mountain and I-75.
  6. dwagner88

    1/28/19 - 1/29/19 Winter Storm Thread

    Actually up to almost 3” here, but it’s being skewed by an insane big dog of over 8”.
  7. dwagner88

    1/28/19 - 1/29/19 Winter Storm Thread

    I’m thinking that my project in Ducktown might come close to being the jackpot in this area. Wouldn’t surprise me to see 4” there. I’m supposed to be up there by 8 AM Tuesday morning. May not be possible. I’m still thinking 1” or less downtown CHA, 2” or less eastern suburbs, 2-3” hwy 411 corridor. I do find it interesting that some models have shown the normal Chattanooga snow hole over Signal Mountain, in an area that typically does better. It’s an odd setup for sure.
  8. dwagner88

    December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion

    The miss this weekend worries me a bit for the southern portion of our forum area. From a climo perspective, the areas of NC that cashed in big time are very unlikely to have another snowfall of a similar size this year. This worries me because systems that create decent snows in the southern valley almost always create even better snows in those same areas of NC. Basically, if we were to get hammered in this area later in the winter, a lot of NC would break seasonal records downstream from us. This seems quite improbable. I hope we didn’t just waste our best shot.
  9. dwagner88

    Winter 2018-2019 Observations

    Been a while since I’ve checked in over here. It’s been wet. Extremely wet. To the point that I am very concerned about the development of freezing fog overnight. I am now over 60” of rain IMBY for the year. Had close to 4” of wasted 38 degree qpf from the big system this weekend and today.
  10. dwagner88

    Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    15.3" of rain on my project site in Ducktown, TN in the last 30 days. I'm ready for some dry weather, but it doesn't look likely any time soon. Good POP's every day except Saturday.
  11. dwagner88

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    The western track still keeps the valley on the dirty side of the storm. It will be a rainmaker as long as it doesn’t go to the east of the Apps.
  12. dwagner88

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Ugh. You know it's been a bad winter when coastal GA outdoes you in seasonal snowfall. This has been one of my least favorite winters.
  13. dwagner88

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

    A pretty severe flash flooding event is setting up over Chattanooga tonight. Training cells + saturated ground = trouble. Rapidly approaching 3" in the bucket and getting torrential rain right now.
  14. dwagner88

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Obs

    Just got to work in Ducktown. It’s 6 degrees and snowing lightly. Main roads are fine everywhere. The backroads in Chattanooga were also OK. Outside Hamilton county they look awful. There’s about 3/4” here. BTW, what is the requirement for a wind chill advisory from MRX? We are conspicuously missing one and the wind chill has been between -5 and -10 all morning.
  15. dwagner88

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    Lol of course this thing has now picked up steam. Died just in time to make absolutely sure that Chattanooga was the only southern city to not get snow. BTW qpf for this event was 0.02” here. About 1/5 of the driest amount shown on any of the major models. We have to have a Miller A to get snow here. There is no other way.