Hoth

CMC with the weak sauce Donna solution. God what a POS that model is.

We've been so spoiled the last 20 years. The bar has been lofted so high it's almost to the point where southern New Englanders just assume there will be a footer each season and "meh" anything under 15". Time was when you'd realistically go 5 years between events that size, now it seems every other year there's some prospective MECS or HECS nearby and it's "24, lollies to 30," or bust. Maybe it's just some cyclical thing and we're doomed to suffer another '80s type drought, or maybe it's changing climate and this is the new normal (please, God), but very few people in here can claim the last X years have been a total bust. Everyone's been clocked at some point.

TUTT to its northeast, northerly shear from that ridging FTL. Hostile environment for several days. If it survives into the Bahamas then maybe it'll be worth watching.

Regression to the mean for Feb '15 obviously.

I'll stick to my Old English.

Just about as steamy as it gets. Swass central.

Hoist the red flags now. Queue up Billy Joel's "Storm Front."

That CMC run is a bag of laughs. Three concurrent hurricanes, one gets buried in the Bahamas and then slingshots into NE. Model porn. Euro takes Harvey as a solid cane into Texas, but of course that's 240 out. All that matters is the tropics are heating up and there are things to watch. 92L and Harvey have good persistent convection. Hopefully get some more organization today.

Really nice circulation with this wave. Both this and Harvey look robust.

Juleps, Ginx. Juleps all day, every day.

Total non-sequitor, but does anyone know what Boston's official peak depth was in Feb '15? I remember it was something like 36-37" after that multi-day beast, but was wondering if we topped it with the mid-level magic storm? Also wondering what the peak depth was down around Weymouth/Milton.

If only we'd known then what was to come five weeks later.

Just underscores how far we have yet to go to understand all the nuances of genesis and intensification. I pay almost no attention to any modeled intensity projection, just that there's a signal.

Christmas '15 was insanely warm. Had Xmas lunch on the deck and got legit sunburned. No jackets required.

Agreed. Traversing pretty warm water, getting better symmetry about its western flank. An eye has intermittently popped out a few times this morning. Certainly possible.