Hoth

Possible, but a global financial crisis wouldn't be my central thesis. We don't know what the extent of contagion from Evergrande will be. Junk bond yields suggest that it is ongoing among other Chinese developers and financial concerns. Who knows what else lurks off balance sheet? I'd bet there's a lot of malfeasance there. My guess is this will get messier than the folks who expect a quick government takeover think, but eventually the economic gravity of popping the biggest bubble in the world will require drastic intervention and a big devaluation of the yuan, which would be pretty negative for risk assets globally. It doesn't help that several asset classes are priced for perfection, even with the recent selloff. You could have a drop in asset prices disproportionate to the depth of contraction. Frankly, I think it would be healthy. Too many zombies and scams out there operating with impunity. Let's let the tide go out a bit.

Seriously. The perspective is tricky in that picture because I shot it from the top of the stairs entering my apartment, but the drift at the bottom was a good six or seven feet tall and probably ten feet wide. And that was what was left after the backhoes had come down and cleared to widen the street a few times.

2/15/15. It was incredible.

Sure, behind a couple inches of bulletproof glass!

I had only seen Josh M's footage of Dorian, which, because he's smart, was shot from the safety of a shelter. Tonight I stumbled across this one, which captures the full fury of the eye wall from this dude's balcony. Easily the most intense conditions I've ever seen on film around the 12 minute mark. You can actually see the color of the air changing from second to second as the amount of water flying around diffracts the light. The balls on this guy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar8Usv-Kwvs

Guess I'll cancel my ream of Flex Seal.

No thanks. Ida was enough.

Can't believe it's been 20 years since 9/11. Still as indelibly sharp and poignant a memory as it is possible to have, much as one would like to forget it.

Almost time for flannel, cider and brown liquor. Wood's been patiently seasoning for many a roaring fire in the months to come. Before we know it, first flakes will be upon us.

I've never felt safer.

Man, look at that neutron star.

Some reports in neighboring towns of 1.25-2" in a 15-20 minute span. I can believe that.

Don't have a gauge sadly, so couldn't tell you. Lightening up a bit now, but I've never seen water come down like that before. Totally overwhelmed my gutters, yard looks like a lake.

This beats the hell out of Henri. Clearly we need to abolish French/names with silent letters from the NHC name list. Boot Henri and Eduoard out!

Never seen rain this heavy. Visibility akin to a decent blizzard. Just thundering in torrents.