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About Hoth

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Fishers Island/Hamden, CT

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  1. Can't stop it, but count me out. I was amazed by the tree damage caused by a middling tropical storm last summer. Cat 2+ would be a total nightmare.
  2. Powell is more acutely sensitive to markets than any of his predecessors. He will say and do whatever he has to to keep them afloat at this point.
  3. Never is a long time. Did you see the ISM reading yesterday? Last time it was that high oil was $140 a barrel.
  4. You and I are generally on the same page, although as I've mentioned before I think Cathy is a solid candidate to blow up her funds at some point. She buys a lot of illiquid garbage, often taking 10% percent of the outstanding float. In doing so she drives up the price and her own returns. But she's supposed to offer daily liquidity, which she recently satisfied by selling her more stable liquid positions like Apple and doubling down on the illiquid stuff. I just think that could be a recipe for trouble if we have a period of sustained selling pressure, especially since there are now funds that mirror her portfolio almost exactly.
  5. Thanks for posting these stats. You mentioned the nominal return for the '70s. Did the study include the real return, because I suspect that number isn't great. The early '80s to the present has been one long fixed income bull market, starting at the end of Volker's intense hiking campaign. As the cost of capital dropped, corporate bond issuance rose, magnifying leverage and returns on equity, so I suppose it shouldn't surprise us that stocks have generally outperformed in recent decades. There have certainly been hiccups, the S&L crisis, LTCM, the tech bubble. GFC was probably the first real shot across the bow regarding the dangers of keeping rates too low. I still contend that the central banks have overdone it since then, and are secretly panicked at the monster they've created. This may explain the ever-increasing frequency and size of direct intervention and incessant jawboning. With rates artificially jammed down, they have encouraged an unprecedented debt binge. The hurdle rates for investment is so low that mis-allocation of capital is rife. We see so many unprofitable businesses trading at outrageous valuations because of the expectation that they can just borrow to fund themselves indefinitely. We even see some businesses without revenue trading at multi-billion dollar valuations. The sheer volume of debt has made the market increasingly sensitive to relatively small fluctuations in rates. A sustained rise, say precipitated by a real and lasting inflationary spike, could make for some real capital destruction. I don't envy those tasked with stewarding client capital in the coming decade. It's going to be a challenging environment.
  6. Some very impressive gusts overnight. Did not get much sleep. Surprised SCT didn't gust higher; haven't felt the house shudder like that in a while.
  7. Getting a few house shakers now. Impressive!
  8. Jesus, George generated more weenies today than the Ball Park factory.
  9. Bad for winter enthusiasts, but great for opening up the summer house and cleaning all the leaves and sticks that probably fell this winter.
  10. I'll go solid A- on the winter. First, it shines especially bright against the backdrop of a 9" winter last year. I'm right around 50", which is a bit shy of double our average. We had a coating in October and the biggest December event in a long time, even though it was washed away a week later. January sucked, but at least it wasn't also cold. February was awesome, a full month of coverage. If we can pull one last gasp warning event, there's room to bump the grade up a little more.
  11. What are the odds Cathy blows up ARK in a larger drop? Seems she sells her stable liquid assets like AAPL and AMZN to meet redemption requests and holds all the overvalued small cap low float stuff. Risky business in a vehicle that is supposed to provide daily liquidity.
  12. Maybe a small earth or frost quake?
  13. Looks like the squeeze in Gamestop and, to a lesser extent, AMC has started again. Interesting times. Powell managed to jawbone stocks up and bond yields down a bit. We'll see how long that lasts.
  14. Pretty spectacular out there. Pack is holding strong, but rills and rivulets are running steadily down driveways and streets. The albedo of my nape has peaked and now the transitional season into more red and brown hues begins.