Hoth

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Everything posted by Hoth

  1. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    Virginia almost 1,500 new cases. North Carolina with a new record too as they enter phase two. As I used to say when it actually snowed, "Take 'em up!"
  2. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    Rugged individualism can also be construed as selfish in certain circumstances.
  3. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    North Carolina spiking as they enter phase two of reopening. 1,100 new cases yesterday. Highest daily total yet.
  4. Guess we know at least one person Warren was selling to.
  5. Man, what a change. I'm out at Fishers Island. This morning it was calm and misty with occasional breaks of sun. About an hour ago the rain came in, the wind whipped around to the northeast and the whitecaps came up. Nasty afternoon.
  6. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    It's a Twitter handle that posts humorous quotes from people who chase the most speculative garbage in the market and get burned.
  7. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    RIP to the tens of thousands of Robinhood day traders that flooded into those shares this month. A lesson they will probably learn many times in the coming months. At least Bag Holder Quotes should be entertaining.
  8. We should frankly. Half of these stocks are outright scams. All of them are effectively a way for the CCP to raise dollars. At a minimum they should be held to the same reporting requirements as American companies. Why they aren't already baffles me. Of course, the SEC is pathetic so it doesn't matter anyway. Jay Clayton underwrote the BABA IPO for crying out loud. He's sent a very clear signal that fraud yields alpha.
  9. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    Very interesting article. https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/21/coronavirus-hijacks-cells-in-unique-ways/
  10. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    I generally discount anything put out by CNBC.
  11. 1.6 new million mortgage deliquencies for April. Looks like we the taxpayer may well end up holding that bag for the second time in a decade. Not sure who holds that paper, but some MBS tranches will trip covenants soon, if they aren't already.
  12. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    The Economist studied restaurant bookings from states that have reopened in the last few weeks. It wasn't pretty. Average bookings down 70-85%.
  13. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    100,000+ new cases today worldwide. That's a record I believe.
  14. Just a couple things of note about this market today. A record 800,000 retail accounts got set up in the last month and change, drawn in by no-commission trading and perhaps the lack of other pastimes. Small call option purchases (<10 contracts) have exploded. Extremely speculative issues, many employing bespoke and highly dubious accounting metrics, lead in popularity on sites like Robinhood. Absolute faith in the infallibility of the Fed and a record long expansion has removed the fear of economic cycles from a whole generation of market participants. Even many Wall Street VPs aren't old enough to remember the horror of '08. They've been conditioned to believe buying the dip always works. And retail appears to be driving the bus right now. Just look at volumes. Pathetic. Up 1,000 points on half normal volume the other day. Now, how often does retail outperform the smart money? Well, what's the Generals' record against the Globetrotters? This week feels like retail getting drawn in. It kind of smells like that last melt-up in February. Put-call ratio is at historically low levels, while forward earnings multiples have only been exceeded briefly at the height of the tech bubble. On the flip side, you have old standbys like Warren Buffett. Not only is Warren sitting on a huge cash pile, he's actively liquidating further into this rally. He didn't touch anything, didn't buy, didn't make any deals, even near the March lows. People say he's over the hill, but he's still a shark. He knows what's up. Then you have Stan Druckenmiller, who compounded his investors' money at 30% for over three decades, out last week saying this is the worst risk/reward for equities he's ever seen. Similar remarks from Jeff Gundlach and Howard Marks. So what happens if that veneer of Fed omnipotence wears off? There is nothing but air beneath these markets. It's like Wiley Coyote running off the cliff without realizing the ground has fallen away. You have the most brutal contraction in American (probably world) history, staggering unemployment, the likelihood of resurgent waves of this virus, strife, maybe even war at some point as nations scapegoat each other. There may be exogenous events that are too big for even the Fed. The idea that markets can just look past this until we recover is risible in my opinion.
  15. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    They continue to lie about their numbers. Nothing new there. What is new is that their top health expert came out yesterday and said they're facing a problem with resurgent infection. He wouldn't have done so without express consent of the Central Committee. This may be their tacit way of admitting they don't have this under control.
  16. We're early days in this market. Couple things to think about. States and municipalities are going to be in dire financial straits after this. They're gonna be looking to raise money any way they can, so property taxes probably go up significantly. That'll weigh on valuations. Also, there has been a ton of supply added to the market in the last several years. Developing and flipping is as popular as it was in '06 and people think real estate is a sure thing again. There may well be a supply overhang there. Add in a large generation of nervous Boomers who may look to cash out at the same time and Milennials who are too indebted on average to afford a house. For all the talk of low rates and easy credit, my understanding is banks have been very reticent to lend recently, even to well capitalized clients. They are reserving for huge loan losses. If the stock market doesn't hold up, all bets are off as well. I'd say the risk/reward of buying a house (if you look at it as an investment and not a place to live) is as bad as it's been in a long time.
  17. Sounds like a recipe for hyperinflation to me. Can't imagine anything effing up one's sense of the value of the dollar than being shoveled free money that you have to spend. Suddenly sellers can jack up prices because they know you're over a barrel. You have to spend it.
  18. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    Yup. We've got profits to make and shares to buy back. What's a few lives when Jeff Bezos is so close to $200 billion? Pull, slaves! Put your back into it.
  19. Hoth

    Coronavirus

    Nah, Feds bail them out and keep you in your place with a $1,200 check or two.
  20. It is totally insane. Insolvent air and cruise lines up huge, same for companies with going concern notices. Uber cuts its work force again and soars. Only thing that matters now is the Fed. Uncle Sam's just gonna own the whole market apparently. They'll rain helicopter money on us and send us to the promise land. Hell, maybe they'll eradicate taxes while they're at it. Throw your CFA charter out the window; analysis doesn't mean shit anymore. I wish you luck with TSLA. That thing's a white whale. Option premiums are wicked expensive, price is totally divorced from fundamentals (what else is new?) and there's at least some evidence of price manipulation via suspicious weekly options activity, which forces the dealer to buy the underlying as a hedge and jam the price up. Then you have a CEO who thinks he's totally above the law (he may be) and willing to do anything, licit or illicit, to stay alive. The company is a dumpster fire and probably facing a liquidity crisis, but nothing has stopped them from raising before. They'll probably con Texas into a few billion dollars for a factory for Cybertruck they won't ever make at volume. They'll limp along hemorrhaging money until they can take deposits for another farcical product in a year or two. Anyway, if you do go that route, at the very least, make sure you're partially hedged.
  21. The last hour is interesting. That seems to be the only time any real volume comes into the market. Especially when NYSE begins their closing ops at 3:50.
  22. Funny you mention 4/29. Wasn't that the day the market rallied like crazy on the remdesivir pump? It's funny how these little early stage medical trials can elicit these big moves. Of course, Jay Powell put in a good pump last night, too.