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Everything posted by MillvilleWx

  1. Dogfish Head Roadtrip this weekend? Also, guess who just happens to be coming home Jan 27th until Feb 5th
  2. That 06z GFS was a MASSIVE step in the right direction. If you go to pivotal and look at the model trend for the 2PVU Pressure, it is very close to what happened on that magical 18z Saturday run. The shifts are stark, there is no denying it.
  3. If the ICON was right in that presentation, you'd need to go on Anthem of the Seas to see any snow. That ridge is way too far east west of the Continental Divide
  4. It's definitely closer than prior runs, which I think is a positive step with still some time left to mediate the smaller shifts into something more respectable. One thing I do like is the prospects of a little snowfall prior to the SLP generation with a bit of a diffluent signature prior to the mean trough pivoting eastward. I think that could still give a touch of snow to the area regardless of the coastal outcome. An earlier neutral/neg tilt would only enhance the pre-game component. Something to monitor in the grand scheme of it all.
  5. Ridge out west has more amplitude as well, so the s/w trough digging through the plains should have a deeper meridional component. It's certainly not a terrible run so far.
  6. Night shifter here back from the dead. After looking at things, I want to remind those that want to be out that you should still be in as the trends are more in and less out, but that doesn't mean we are in in, but less out than we were in last time we were out. You catch my drift?
  7. So, basically every snow map so far this year?
  8. NS dominant disturbance that favors a Miller B outcome, or a hybrid of sorts. We can get them, but typically that is a New England favored generation. There's a modest s/w over the south that could be involved as well, but the main player is a strong s/w exiting out of Central Canada and driving south with a pinch and close south of our lat with a SLP generation over a favored baroclinic ribbon along the east coast. Not enough dig, late close off, late phase with the southern stream, etc would all cause it to fail or hook and miss. The fact the s/w digs like it does provides the opportunity, but it's still not a climo norm. Pattern does favor some latitudinal premise in a s/w digging, but timing is everything.
  9. Anyone that thinks a potential storm is solved at Day 7/8 is absolutely out of their ever loving mind. Is it climo favored for us? NO Is it dead in the water? Also NO Anyone who does this every single day with the lamenting on a run by run basis needs therapy or to move to NNE. This is the Mid Atlantic. Our storms don't usually show up until 4 day leads to begin with.
  10. Just read a pretty interesting fact this morning.... Did you know that by replacing a cup of coffee with a cup of green tea in the morning, you can lose up to 87% of your positivity going into that day?
  11. Holy hell this flopped like a D rated horror film from the 80s. Boundary layer was just too warm to overcome. Sorry y'all
  12. I’m not gonna lie, the SE portion of the sub is still well into the game, but areas west of a Richmond/Cambridge/Rehoboth line are down 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th. Not totally out of it, but the 5H pattern needs some major shifts to get any appreciable precip up to 95. I would still keep an eye on it! Hampton roads area is certainly in the prime spot. My map from yesterday will need some adjusting
  13. Trough remained positively tilted allowing the SLP development to not really gain latitude. Gonna be a miss to the SE again for DC area. Still a solid storm for the Lower Eastern Shore.
  14. I think this is a very solid forecast. Topography and proxy in lat will be a big part of the max potential for this kind of setup. I mentioned earlier I really like the M/D folks with someone like @psuhoffmanbeing in a phenomenal spot for this setup. 850-700mb frontogen is actually solid for wee hrs of Thursday through about 15z. There could be a nice surprise heavy snow for parts of the region. I do like 1-3 south of I-70 at max potential. 2-4 with a max of 5” for north of I-70 with best chances over the northern tier of MD.
  15. Areas north of I-70 might do pretty well with this setup. The M/D folks might sneak away with a solid advisory level snowfall. Wouldn't be surprised with a 4-5" jack from a line of northern Fredrick over to northern Carroll/Balt County. A spot like Shrewsbury or Mt. PSU would be my pick for the winner overall with someone like @losetoa6also in the running. Nice little storm
  16. I want to remind people in here that short term trends in the NS vort are absolutely going to occur. Even a marginal trend in the latitudinal gain would make a significant difference to the proposed forecast. Considering the primed thermal environment on the lead up, the main factor for best accumulation will be the location of mid-level ascent within the DGZ that can really make snow accumulation maximized. Right now, the best frontogen is displaced to the SE towards the eastern shore from a line extending through South-Central VA up to Cambridge and over to Rehoboth. A bump 30-50 miles north is within reason, and would put NoVA/DC/Northern Neck of the Eastern Shore within play for better snow accumulations. Keep the faith!
  17. I literally just saved this in my extensive "Restaurants Around the US" list on Google. It's deep and I've only tried like 8 on it, but I'm on a mission. Thanks for the rec!
  18. Kuchera will have better ground truth this time around. One thing that I don't think a lot of people are factoring with this setup is the ratios. This is going to be a cold smoke when it comes in. The thermals are absolutely amazing for these parts. You get any ascent in the picture at all, and you'll pile up snow nicely. Banding factors be damned as well. There's a lot that can bring a solid advisory criteria snow a fair chunk of the sub-forum and warning criteria most likely confined to areas south of Rt 50. Add the snow from previous day and it's a solid few day period. KU potential is low as long as the southern wave stays disconnected, but a sharp northern vort can absolutely deliver here.
  19. Canadian has the southern stream wave approaching Mexico City this run lol
  20. 1-2" during rush hour is actually looking formidable at this point. Love areas north of I-70 for this one with a secondary max over NoVA into Central MD when a weak wave ridges up the boundary after 12z.
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