MillvilleWx

Looked at everything last night and decided not to head north for snow. Went to get car serviced instead. Was a nasty, raw morning here in the lowlands. Still getting a cold 39° rain here. We needed it, so I’ll take it. Sad to see the WAA win out, but that’s the sad truth about these types of setups. If the high is moving out and the antecedent airmass is marginal, probably should hedge on the lower end. This setup in January probably yields one heck of a mess, but the northern tier gets slammed. Till next time!

Adding to the list!! Thanks Mappy

This.... Models are going to struggle with this aspect and the near isothermal layer between sfc-700mb is going to be tough to resolve and likely will be a nowcast situation. Heavier precip in the onset will help to mitigate the WAA regime within the PBL, so intensity will play a pretty big role in this for Central MD along and south of the area you mentioned. Areas up near the M/D with more elevation will likely stay snow longer, as is customary. This is a textbook case of climo likely being the hedge when it comes to the forecast.

Oh wow, thanks! I will be in that area from Waynesboro over to your hood, so somewhere in there I will be stopping. Always great to have options. Thanks to you and Mitch for the suggestions!

I am making a note of that right now!! If the radar looks good there, I will 100% post up right there. Anyone is welcome to join if they please too!

Actually, this is still considered early for the region for appreciable snowfall. FDK average in December is still only like 3-4" with peak snow climo opening end of the month. We have 1-2" forecast for your area right now, so it should look pretty in those parts come Tuesday morning. I'll be out and about up towards the PA line enjoying the snowfall. Thinking of where to post up. Want to get a nice breakfast at a diner and watch the snow fall

@wxmvpete and I are working the WPC Winter desks this morning, so you'll see what we drum up here by the afternoon. Interesting forecast for sure, but fun to be able to have the hands in the first potential event of the season for parts of the sub

Yeah, we noticed that looking at the MSLP member plots and looking at the ptype output. It's skewed high and some gaudier members in there too. I think what the AIFS and ECWMF deterministic are showing are pretty good agreement with the op more on the drier side in the northwest edge of the precip field. EC has had a drier bias in that area over the past few years and beefs up a bit as move closer. Unless there's a purely synoptic based reasoning for that sharper delineation on the northwest edge of a cyclone, there will likely be a small correction. I think we are closing in on a more reputable solution.

That area is where the drop in elevation starts out of Winchester. Could very well be wrong, but this setup has happened historically, much to your chagrin, so I went that route. I do think you could see an inch out that way, but better chance just north.

Extremely meteorological forecast of where I think the best chance to score 1" of snow from the event could end up. If you are north of the red line, potential. South, probably not. EXTREMELY METEOROLOGICAL

The Ravens snow game was that day. Unforgettable snowstorm for these parts.

Mentioned this yesterday and I haven't wavered on this forecast yet. I feel any wintry precip in the region will be confined northwest of the fall line. The key is the timing of the HP movement to the east and the the low attack. A few days ago, we had a little more stay in the HP to the north which would offset some of the warm advection from prevailing southeast flow and provide a deeper wedge to break through. Now the high is shifting east and in a classic spot for a positive u-vector wind anomaly to take shape earlier, eroding CAD prior to approach of the main precip field. Magnitude of cold is subjective, so it's plausible the wedge is deeper than advertised from the preceding pattern, or the low isn't as robust and doesn't have the stronger boundary layer WAA regime materialize making it easier for the cold to remain. The fact stands that the current forecast would yield little wintry precip for the lowlands and is shaping to be a classic elevation/longitudinal type pattern for the area. Further north and west, the better the chance. EC AIFS and AIFS-ENS are still in pretty good agreement on some low-end threat for snow/sleet prior to the setup yielding all rain for the area. Would need a massive shift in the HP to the north about 200-350 miles further west as @WEATHER53 alluded to in a recent post. Still super early in the season, so it's just nice to have something trackable at this point instead of watching temps in the 50s and 60s and swatting mosquitos into December.

Minor revision from previous forecast

Honestly, this isn't the first time this has happened with Monken....but this also happened under Roman too. There is one pretty significant similarity between the two and his initials are JH

That's not a bad look for the MJO if that were to materialize. Having it decay in Phase 8 and enter the COD opens the door for more prolonged cold and semi-active periods. Hopefully this is a sticky forecast.

No one, and I repeat NO ONE beats the Ravens like the Ravens

AIFS and ECWMF are in closer proxy to each other wrt handling the 5H pattern. A little flatter and confluence better for here, however the HP to the north isn't as pronounced compared to GFS/CMC which would play a role into the antecedent airmass domain the storm would attack. Guess is the GFS/CMC are too amped at the moment and will likely shift closer to the AIFS/ECENS combo. This has climo, fall line type event written all over it. Early in the season for the lowlands.

Caution when assessing the AI model at range, especially for setups that lean more delicate and have greater emphasis on energy ejections and thermal gradients involved. AI is a great model and actually performs very well inside 72hrs when it comes to 5H progression and MSLP characteristics. It can still be semi-erratic and off beyond the 72hr mark, although I will add that if the model doesn't waver much and it maintains credence inside 72hrs, it probably will be right more often than not. It's something to keep in mind when looking at the AIFS/AIFS-ENS package. It's a tool like any other piece of guidance, and it's verification is pretty damn good right now because it doesn't utilize the typical thermodynamic and dynamic functions that allow for greater swings in output compared to dynamical models. You'll know it might be on to something when it doesn't waver for a while and we begin reaching that critical point inside 48hrs.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! Doing my part by working this morning and afternoon. I appreciate all my fellow shift workers and first responders. Keeping the nation safe and moving. Hopefully all can enjoy time with family and friends

BWI: 23.7" DCA: 19.3" IAD: 26.5” RIC: 9.7” ----- SBY: 11.3”

Agreed! Will be interesting to see the trends on guidance through the weekend. I'll be keeping tabs on AI model outputs as well. Want to see some consistency on handling of the wave ejection at this lead and as we get closer to any event potential. Still a ways to go, but nice to see something worthwhile to kick off the season around these parts

I'll say this....This is actually a pretty classic way for this area to get on the board for the season. Waving timing and thermal gradient positioning will be the keys unless something else sneaks up to affect the pattern. Not too complicated, but still a tight rope walk in a way. Inside 7 days. We're keeping an eye on it here at the National Center.

0.25" at mi casa last night and early this morning 1.02" for the month

Hmmmmmmm *Cracks knuckles*

Jk....Ellinwood is amazing!