MillvilleWx

Outside the come from behind victory in Jan 2000, there was no winter to be found in these parts. I was really young, but I remember basically getting out early all 3 years from a lack of snow days used. It was a rough stretch. Add in the March 2001 fail and dismal 2002 and you got yourself a 5 year stretch of rough winters. 2003 is when it broke, and it broke big. There’s been terrible streaks of futility throughout history in these parts. We’re on a cooler, that’s for sure.

I’m keeping my eye on that one. That’s got a chance to hold together over to my area.

I’ll add we had 1.67” of rain yesterday at our place. We missed most of it traveling back from Myrtle Beach, but we got clobbered once we got to the Capital Beltway with those elevated thunderstorms that rolled through. It was dumping rain

Light snow shower in north Frederick 44°

Should be good for 4-6ft up at that elevation. Enjoy the pasting!

21° at my place this morning at 5AM. Brrr

Took a ride through the Catoctins today. Still 2-4” of snow OTG up around 1200’+ Temp was 45° at my place and got down to 36-38° on top of the mountain. Whole different world up there. Really is beautiful

Went for a breezy, chilly walk around Baker Park earlier. Felt very much like a prime winter day. A little snow around. It was pretty nice! I want to walk around Baker after a big storm at some point. Got to be an experience.

2/16 - 2.3" Total* - 13.8" *Missed a snow event in January. No reading so likely closer to 14.3-14.8”

2.3” here in 5N Frederick Same as last storm. That’s kind of a weird coincidence. This snow is much fluffier though compared to the last one.

I would’ve went to bed ages ago in DC for snow purposes. Storm quickly went backwards for the district after the 12z hi-res

Hate to say it, but kudos to the HRRR/RAP combo for sniffing this out basically since 14z runs. They are going to hit the nail on the head for here and basically hit the northern band in PA, to a degree. Im not a HRRR disciple by any means, but it can be useful for trends in certain setups. It struggles with southern stream disturbances and does better with NS systems. I think convection within SS disturbances causes chaos in the model. Would be interesting to study. My forecast earlier was terrible and I really forced what I showed everyone here. I didn’t have a good mental day today, so seeing it snow nicely helped bring up my spirit. Depression sucks, that’s all I have to say. Have a good night everyone. Enjoy the snow, whatever falls. Truly a treat.

Yeah. I think the 5” is pretty dead south of M/D except for maybe your hood, but 2-4” is still decent for those NW of US29. 7H fronto went into PA and that pretty much killed any chance at the max for here. Annoying, but it is what it is. This is still pretty nice to see.

IMG_7821.mov

SN+ Giant flakes. These are some very impressive dendrites. Everything has caved, including the parking lot. This is easy 1+”/hr

Moderate to bordering heavy snow now in Frederick. Massive flakes. Cars completely covered and grass totally whitened up.

Steady light snow 5N Frederick

I'll try to fine tune this forecast with the new 12z data set. Might be bumping totals a bit

Colleague and I were just talking about this. Pivotal utilizes the surface as part of the formula for ratios on Kuchera and it's weighted too heavily. If it started off the surface from 925 and up, it would be much much better. The Kuchera ratios are better on WeatherBell, but still might be a touch high.

Rough snow forecast outline (Medium Confidence): Zone A: 6-10" Zone B: 3-5" w/ stripe of 5-6" within the 85H frontogen band that sets up from NoVA through SoMD. The potential does include the DC metro, but best chance for highest totals will lie on the edge and outside the beltway. Uncertainty for Southern DE due to thermals Zone C: 4-6" in the Catoctins and adjacent terrain Zone D: 4-6" w/ max of 7" elevation areas above 650ft. This is tricky depending on 7H frontogenesis placement Most of region: 2-5" fairly widespread. Higher totals within the Parrs ridge area from NW MoCo through western HoCo into the Carroll/Frederick border (Clarksburg/Damascus/Mount Airy). 1-2" for areas south of Zone B

Was this the same storm someone said they didn't believe you had two inches of snow, so you took a picture with a newspaper with the date on it in the background of the ruler in the snow and a thumbs up? One of my favorite things I've ever seen on this forum.

That's pretty specific for Frederick

This is a fun little event coming up. 2-4" of snow for areas north of Rt 50 is a good look imo. Good timing too. Later Friday into Saturday. Some night time snow heading into a weekend. Good time to break out a good drink and watch it fall.

There was just no way Ballanger Creek, who flipped over 30-45 min after me had close to 3” of snow, equal to places to my north. It’s maddening. I measured 2.25” to 2.4” basically everywhere. Not like the snow drifted. Maybe I missed SOME compaction with the snow at such low SLR, but Yeesh.

I call BS on the Ballanger Creek total. No way they got close to Thurmont or Emmitsburg. I’m north of them and didn’t even have that much. Dept of Highways has had some weird totals over this winter. Idk how they measure.