MillvilleWx

This might end up being a huge AI victory here. It hardly wavered last 3 days and sniffed it out beyond 5 days. Loving my spot here west of Rehoboth Beach.

I figured we’d get here so long as AI held firm, and it most certainly has. Nice little event for the eastern shore brewing. I’ll gladly take that!

I work at the National Center but knew about the incoming changes to local AFD’s about a month or two ago. They want to have the most impactful upfront as the headliner with chronological reasoning in the discussion itself. The Key Message portion is a request through feedback as the BLUF statements are good for messaging awareness and what to prepare for in the IDSS realm. A lot of thought and feedback went into this change.

I’ll be down at my parents too. Watching playoff football with my Dad. Would love nothing more than football on the TV and some snow as ambiance!

I mentioned the AI models the other for the setup end of weekend and that still absolutely holds. The fact they haven’t wavered and are even upticking (albeit slightly) should be a tell on the setup likely having some legs here. There will be a sharp western gradient most likely as best ascent will focused in corridor within the RER of the jet situated off the Atlantic coast. Best chance for “appreciable” snow will likely lie east of I-95, and more likely eastern shore to the coast. I don’t see more than 3-4” in any given location at the max, but widespread 1-3” in the impacted areas is certainly plausible in this scenario. I like areas just west of the coast for this one. Salisbury to Lewes area might be a good spot, but we’ll see as we get the CAMs involved by tomorrow and definitely by Sunday AM.

Friend invite with company tix…no way in hell was I saying no!! Haha. All good. Hopefully we play better 3rd period like last game! Here’s to hoping

At the game. Can confirm….5 min period of futility. Sharks youth on display this game with more stamina and speed off puck. They are legit a good up and coming squad with maybe a top 5 center in hockey.

The AIFS not wavering and AIFS-Ensemble also upping the ante for at least the eastern shore should raise some eyebrows for Sunday. This is typically when you have to start paying closer attention. We are getting inside 72 hrs.

Hey y'all!! Wanted to drop by and say we are looking closely at that time frame between the 23rd thru the 30th this month for active weather potential. SWFE type pattern that tends to have good promise for the state. Obviously where the baroclinic zone ends up is the key in all this, but the pattern shaping up seems to be trending in that direction. This has been on many Met's radar's for the past week or so and seems to be holding weight. GFS run was obviously the most extreme fantasy you'll ever see for the pattern (Not happening), but the type of setup is certainly plausible given the confluent area to the north and a weakening SER to our south. For now, just some clipper and squall type snows as the troughing pattern returns for a period.

The 18z GFS output verbatim is an extreme fantasy. However, the pattern shaping up around that time absolutely screams some type of SWFE type event that could involve a large areal coverage. Something we are keeping an eye on at range. For now, it's not real life, it's just fant-....oh, you get it.

I'm just happy I didn't have to watch Faalele get his ass kicked on National TV again by Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, or whoever he would eventually miss the block on. Texans are going to be a tough out, but Stroud has to play better. They are insanely good if they can be competent on offense.

Mine was the January snowstorm that dropped 10+" for my hood, but a very close second was the absolutely immaculate August in these parts. It's been since the summer of 2014 where we had August temperatures like that. It was a welcomed sight after a brutal 37 day stretch from June 23rd to July 30th with the heat and humidity, including 120+ heat indices during the late June heat wave across parts of the lowlands.

FYP

The Ravens are bad.....but the Steelers are another level of bad. This game is basically who gets to get obliterated by the Houston Texans front 7 next weekend. The game is entertaining...if you like train wrecks.

The theme to these “warm ups” at range has been to mute them or completely reverse course since August. We saw this so many times over the last half of 2025, and I imagine you’ll see this continue. I wasn’t worried about any extended warm up because of this premise. We’ll see a brief period of above normal before returning closer to normal and below normal at times. Timing waves and getting that prolonged SWFE look is what can be the ticket to getting frozen around here considering the nature of things. A few coastals will certainly be plausible by end of winter as well as wavelengths shorten into February. It’s always tricky around here, but if the North Atlantic cooperates, that increases our favor. I would not be sweating anything beyond D7 at this point. History is showing it will change and discrete threats could pop up inside 7 days with this type of volatility in NWP.

1/1: 0.1" Season Total: 3.3"

Damn. What a classic look to score around here in January. We actually do decent with well-defined SWFE looks like this. I dig it

Got woken up to the squalls moving through early this morning. Absolutely smoked. Shook the house. The snow coated everything in an inch of its life. A great start to 2026 imo. Kudos to the hi-res that were on this potential from 36-48 hrs out. This was a strong axis of PVA coupled with impressive PBL dynamics. One thing I learned many years ago with talking to Bernie Rayno at the AMS Conference in Phoenix in 2015, while drinking and nerding out over winter weather….fresh injections of Arctic air tend to bring fresh coatings of white in their paths. This was no different. Happy to see all the cool reports and for some of these pics out of Western MD depicting a winter wonderland @nj2va Happy New Year everyone. Let’s bring home a good winter after a solid start for most.

We know.......

I came in here to see what y'all were thinking about this 12z suite which looks pretty dang good to my trained eye and....... I hope some of y'all received Valium for Christmas. Good lord. I didn't see anything that screamed shut the blinds. If anything, it showed how you might want to grab some extra sidewalk/drive way salt. Yeesh

Going to be to the east-southeast of Adams Center. That area should get smashed with 3-6'. You and @katabaticbe safe

Those top analogs for both periods are absolutely insane. What a list. Cautiously optimistic for this potential pattern.

This is what I mentioned to my dad. Our pass blocking is absolutely awful, but our run blocking is solid enough to just play bully ball. And we have the best bully ball back in the league. The fact our coaching staff can’t see this while Lamar is in there is crazy. Also, we run way too few play action plays. That would open things up enough to get some chunk pass plays while running the football playing power. It’s all so easy, and yet….

Cautiously optimistic heading into January. The addition of potential southern stream is what you want to see for better potential in these parts. Blocking plus southern stream opens the door for more appreciable storms. Plenty to like about the latest ensembles, but it’s still D10-15, so don’t throw all the chips in just yet. Will be something to keep an eye on and track as we move into 2026.

Wind, heat, CAD and failure. It’s what we do best