MillvilleWx

That storm will not be repeated here, but similar premise! Upper levels will improve for these parts in the evening. That's when you'll see more banding structures and things begin to pick up.

Everything is going as planned. Accums won't really start for another 3-5 hrs, especially after sunset. Temps will drop to near and below freezing and rates will increase. The ULL formation to our south has not even started yet. Hours to go before the good stuff. Go out, grab a bite, have a drink or two, relax, take a nap, celebrate the USA Gold, then enjoy snow falling later. It'll do what it's going to do. Everyone stay safe, especially our Delmarva brethren.

Beautiful cross-section across MD from the shore to the Alleghany front. Decent omega throughout the region within the DGZ should allow for nice dendrites and efficient accumulations. This was taken from the 14z HRRR around 02z (9PM EST). Once it starts snowing, it'll absolutely accumulate efficiently. Areas of the Delmarva are going to get absolutely crushed. 1-2"/hr for hours for those areas. 10+ is all but certain for any area east of Cambridge longitude. Will be a fun evening for all!

I wrote for the storm the past few days Jeb on the Heavy Snow and Ice Discussion. You can view them here https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd&version=0&fmt=reg Click on version 1 and you'll see mine from yesterday. My colleague wrote the current discussion and it's also very well done, per usual

They'll be better suited in that area compared to the coast. The coastal areas in Sussex will be awhile before they can go anywhere. My parents are in that area and I'm not expecting them to be able to move till Tuesday.

Seaford is in a great spot for this one. Milford, DE would be an awesome choice too. No matter the location in DE, if you are 10+ miles inland, you will be golden.

Thanks! I take pride in my discussions, especially for high impact events. This was a fun one today. I wrote yesterday too, but that conveyed more uncertainty. Today, I let it rip.

Here you go!! https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

If you take 80% of Kuchera, this is a bonafide MECS for areas east of I-95 and a SECS for those west except northeastern MD. HECS for Delaware and points northeast. Absolutely insane consistency right now on these mega outputs.

Not so sure about that my man. Here’s through 38 hrs….

For your viewing pleasure!! Should be a great storm for many in here. I hope y’all get hammered with the goods!! Will check in tomorrow

Insane Clown Whore Posse?

Yeah. That was insane. Surprisingly, these runs haven’t been on an island. Storm is so massive, so perhaps a nice little surprise? I’d take 70% of what that was and be happy

For all you clown map whores, here’s the Model Ratio snow from the HRRR. This is better than Kuchera as it takes into account more variables and verifies better than Kuchera from experience. Nice run for many.

It is for the western edges but not for the CCB area. That actually improved. A lot of the drier look is from the initial wave being drier upfront. It was too warm at the surface and likely plays a role in the PBL and expected transition later. Will have to monitor that. NAMNest seems to be handling those thermals well, so I’d put more stock in that right now. Surprisingly, I thought the same, but turns out not to be the case. It’s almost on top of its 18z positioning at 06z Monday at the same 979 strength. Key is the western area was drier while the CCB juiced up. Still churning and burning with a hell of a snowfall for the eastern shore to the northeast. I’m on the edge, but even still 6-8” with it still snowing. Model ratio snow calculation has been excellent in these scenarios, so I’ll be paying close attention to it tomorrow as we move forward.

38°/32° in Londontowne Temps on schedule from forecast here.

It’s better with ratios, but can still run a little high for these kinds of marginal airmass setups. It had a monster output too, so in all honesty, it’s going to come down to dynamical hi-res now and placement of banding. After 21z tomorrow, everyone will start watching the radar blossom then all hell will break loose. It’s going to be fun to watch.

This would be as amazing time as ever to go grab a nice Cajun seafood dinner, sip on something cold to drink and light up the fattest, sticky ickiest blunt ever and just enjoy the winter evening down there.

You have no idea how bad I want that to be right, but it’s SLR’s are just too high for this storm. However, it’s QPF is very nice and even with lower SLR’s for this area, it’s one hell of a storm. Insane printout there.

Idk how to put this lightly, so I’ll just say it….there will be a relative min for this storm due to the overall evolution and the likeliest spot will lie between the primary deformation within the classic CCB from the surface low and the norlun trough axis further northwest where the converging wind fields develop on the NW edge of the broad mid-level rotation. As of now, the urban areas and true central MD could be the min and the urban areas also have the UHI components to contend with. There’s a better chance for Baltimore to get hit with more snow than DC, but the premise stands. It’s one of the reasons I said I’d like to be east of I-83 and I-97 for this storm. It’s the nature of the beast. Best you can hope is the RAP and NAM’s are on to a broader expanse on the western side of the SLP. That could very well happen, so gotta see how it plays out. Snow will fall and it’ll be moderate to heavy at times before things collapse as the low drifts to the north-northeast. You’ll get snow, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4-7” inside 695 and 2-5” inside 495. It is what it is.

Good test for the AI with such a complicated and dynamic setup. It’s been west of the deterministic at times, but it was jumpy a few days ago. Seems to be locked in now. Still will miss the banding structures, but the orientation of the QPF is probably fairly good in a spatial sense. I’d lean more towards the hi-res tonight moving forward.

I should’ve specified that it was prior to the 12z run the EC deterministic was at the eastern envelope of solutions. It’s adjusted correctly now, but still could be further east as several members are! Sorry for the confusion!

For sure! That norlun feature is going to be pretty incredible. I hope you and the WV/Winchester/South-Central PA peeps can catch it if the models have that correctly placed. Easy 1+”/hr rates expected in that thing.

Correct!

I am tbh. This is such a dynamic setup and the fact we have all the hi-res and regionals adjusting west should give merit. Plus, EC at the eastern envelope of its own ensemble members is a red flag. These solutions with the wrap snow for hours after the meat of the storm is gone is actually classic for these large Atlantic cyclones that occlude. Makes sense the hi-res are showing these solutions.