MillvilleWx

Nevermind….

Well, that went in complete reverse. TPV interaction went from partial to…”what interaction?” on the CMC. GFS trending backwards even more so for the S/S wave and interaction with the TPV is pretty awful. Now THAT is concerning. I’m not giving up hope, but man oh man, that is a step in the wrong direction to start the 00z suite. We’ll see what the UK and EC bring to the table because if they hold serve, then it’ll be a medium range model war. Damn

The 1987 storm was a huge hit for areas like Annapolis/Waldorf/Entire eastern shore. In fact, that storm is one of the top 10 all time snowfall over areas like Easton, I believe. This storm I feel has a lot of similarities and should be a more aggressive version of that one, if it materializes like some of the guidance infer. There is a strong push of deep layer moisture at 850-700mb on guidance right now with significant ascent within a period of pronounced 25H jet coupling. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) signifies a pretty robust outline of very anomalous/extreme output within the envelope of possibilities. This is a sign for perhaps greater impacts extending back into the Piedmont with the strongest core of anomalies centered over the Eastern Shore, especially across the Lower ES. Now, this can shift if the synoptic pattern deviates from what is being forecast, but seeing that EFI (Shaded area) represent values >0.8 leads me to believe that we have ourselves a pretty significant output potential with this one and some indication of a further west and southwestward expanse of the heavy precip field.

That’s one of the more gawdy NBM runs at this lead you may ever see. To get that kind of result, you have to have some significant members within the blend, ensemble and deterministic. That is wild

Still haven’t seen anything that would make me feel on edge for the setup. I keep mentioning this….this is a delicate setup with the phasing and eventual interaction between the N/S vortex and the S/S wave that seems fairly robust considering the 5H anomalies. I don’t think some here understand how close some of these close runs were to blowing up into something greater. Yes, there is a chance the phase gets messy and things don’t turn as meridional as we want them to be, but the trend is for a significant storm to be present in-of ORF and the question becomes, “Where does it go from there?” Someone at this rate is going to get hit really good. The finer details and cohesion of guidance is still tbd. Don’t stress on every single model run. It is terrible for your health.

Hey y'all! Just popping in to say we might be staring down a big one potentially for next week. I am cautiously optimistic about areas east of Rt15 and south of I-78 for some significant snowfall potential. Still a ways to go and it's delicate, so stay vigilant, but I can't say I hate what I'm seeing right now in the overall pattern. Fingers crossed!

I don't put much stock in the ICON since it's a trash can model in the grand scheme, but I still look because there's nothing else new to parse over. Run was great for many, especially if you are east of Rt15. If you live out by 81, I can see SOME disdain, but even so, it's 11-13" so nothing to sneeze at. Also, if you are posting doom and gloom on a run before it finishes and it ends up being significant anyway, should be a key to stop doing any pbp and just enjoy others input. I did it for 6 years before I started doing any pbp and I'm a degreed met now. Sit back and learn, ask questions, and enjoy the meteorology of it all.

Blizzard Watches are no longer part of the Hazard issuances anymore. However, there are still Blizzard Warnings, but there is just a Winter Storm Watch issued with Blizzard wording. This is part of the Hazard Simplification that has been occurring the past 6+ years. This is also the case with Ice Storms where there are no more Ice Storm Watches, but there are Ice Storm Warnings.

So long as there is N/S interaction with the strong S/S vort, there will be a decent swath of heavy snow with formidable totals. That much is coming to light. The overall interaction when those two rendezvous will be the difference between a widespread MECS or a HECS that rivals some of the bigger storms in our history. So far the threat looks to be gaining traction, but this is still a very delicate balance. There's still time for changes in either direction. I can't complain about what has been shown on today's runs. UKMET is the only type of storm that would have significant low-level thermal issues that could skunk some of the forum. Until more guidance shows that, I'm not sweating it.

Going to stock up on the hearty ingredients for stews and pot roasts as well. Weather that will keep you parked calls for good, hearty nourishment. Time for pancakes and pot roasts!

Welp, it might be time to start really paying close attention to this one ladies and gents. Still not etched in stone, but Donatello is probably getting his tools ready

That sentence reminds me of those days in High School when you had to submit a paper with AT LEAST a certain amount of words for it to count. You do anything you can!

ECMWF was a thing of beauty in all phases. The crazy thing is.... that's not even the max scenario of it all when you assess how 5H evolves. Pretty insane. GFS I feel is up to its progressive bias of it all. ICON and GFS are usually too fast with these types evolutions and you can tell because they have similar issues. Compared to the rest of the suite, they were near misses to something much greater. Can't hate that 12z suite. The big ones are always a tight rope walk because EVERYTHING has to go right to get a monster result. Block up north helps in these scenarios. Now....we wait.

Hey guys! Been busy...I miss anything?

I'm certainly intrigued by next week. Another fun week of tracking possible. I've been slammed at work with this next bomb eastern half of the CONUS, so I look forward to recaps once I get off work. Let's hope for a solid 12z

Season Total: 18.9"

Well, just got a picture from my place and the snow depth measurement at the house is 7" on the nose. I am stunned!! What a winter for the coastal areas of AA and Southern MD.

Great to hear! I was in CP, so don't know the final total for my hood, but according to my wife last night before bed, we had a little over 4.5", so likely touched 5.5-6" when looking back at radar. Solid storm again for our neck of the woods. WAY over climo now at my 16' of elevation lol

About to head to sleep. Estimated 4-4.5” here in College Park. Still a snow anus for the area inside the beltway, but man is it beautiful around here when it’s a true snow globe. Hopefully we can crack 5.5-6” with this inside the beltway. It truly just wants to snow along and south of Rt50 this year. Goodnight everyone. 445am comes around pretty quickly. Enjoy the fruits of Mother Nature

My parents just west of Rehoboth have been getting absolutely steamrolled over that way. Congrats and enjoy!

Oh, that Meso was fine for the DC area and NoVA to points east. Anything north of I-70 makes no sense. Hopefully I’m wrong and everyone cashes. I just don’t see 1+”/hr rates further north. Sharp cutoff likely

I know you’re just messin, but if they know that, then kudos to that person lol Highly doubt anyone there is even from this area of the country. Its majority people from the south and plains. The severe weenies from birth.

They didn’t see anything imo. It’s a terrible forecast and someone who issued probably doesn’t understand this area. I love the people at SPC and they do an amazing job, but every now and then they make me scratch my head. Today is one of those times.

Staying in CP for the night since I have work early in the AM tomorrow. This area might actually be the worst snow place in the entire region. Rt50 on south is the area you want to be in. Didn’t agree at all with the northern extent of that Meso SPC issued. Oh well. Y’all enjoy. I’ll accept whatever flakes I get here at the University area.