MillvilleWx

The energy is a massive piece of the equation and if that goes sideways, it’s over. Probably the biggest question mark in the whole deal inside 84hrs. Then the confluence afterwards.

It’s not just the strength of the high, it’s the confluence area that sets up between the TPV lobe off Nova Scotia and the impending s/w digging out of Central Canada. The stronger the high, the drier the airmass and colder temps at latitude, but if you have an ejecting piece that phases and pumps the heights out in front a bit, you’ll get precip, but could be more mix. My main concern with this setup is and will always be suppression. It’s a tight rope walk, but a weaker confluent axis tends to verify a little closer in reality, but we’ll see.

Also noticed something similar when assessing the analogs posted back in the Medium Range channel. Very likely the case, but the surface progs are uncanny in similarity. More ways to skin a cat I’m sure. I’m hesitant to sound the full alarm yet since we still have plenty of time to go, but I do like seeing the main players on the field already with the initial impacts into the plains less than 72 hrs away. Seems like we are gearing up for a long week of tracking…at a minimum. I’m still wary of a suppression in this setup, but every monster storm comes with some worry.

Great agreement and a ton of moisture for a smoothed mean. The heavier precip depiction back into the Lower Mississippi to Deep South is indicative of convection too. That’s another classic signature for here.

This arctic intrusion reminds me so much of PDII with its alignment and positioning. I can still picture the 1040 HP on the WBAL Morning news that morning of the storm drilling cold air into the area with moisture attacking. It was 12° and snowing all day. Just surreal. This has the ability to deliver something like that…a cold smoke.

PDII is probably my choice for a closer analog. The banana high, attacking moisture from the south of Gulf origin, and multiple wave ejections from the southwest. A coastal development mid to late storm cycle during the event…lots of similarities. I am not, in any way saying the result will be the same, btw. I am saying pattern evolution similarities are there and that bodes well for the Mid Atlantic.

I worked with Tomer when he was DTB at WPC…this is incredible coming from him…..but he’s not wrong imo. Do I think it’ll be the same magnitude? Probably not, but impactful to a point of major impact potential? Yes, it really could be. This is a pattern where it might not be just one system we are tracking. The teleconnections tell the story. This is the lineup for Mid Atlantic storminess. Details be damned, but this is truly a pattern where there will be a ton to watch over the next 2 weeks. Prep that coffee and prepare for cold weather, at a minimum.

Just pointing out that this setup with post-storm temperatures <10° is very much a possibility with the HP anchored to the north. This is a prolonged cold spell incoming, regardless of snowfall. Snow will only exacerbate the cold potential due to refrigeration effects. If you are in a home that takes oil or fire wood, I would start preparing to have a delivery or go restock the firewood, pellet stoves for the incoming stretch of cold. It could last a while.

As of now, this is all I’m worried about right now. Cards are on the table. Just have to see how the dealer deals the cards. Hopefully we smack on the turn and river.

Very likely terrain enhancement in that area. Winds out of the NE would support that theory.

We had the precip, but thermals were off. Still got some snow and whitened things up nicely over here. Just didn’t really get to the 1” mark. Life at the coast! Still had snow and football….hard to beat that.

OT, but the way you wrote this and provided the source credit is a testament to your writing skills and what you’ve been learning in school. Absolutely impressed. Please keep up with your scholastic work and never ever stop learning. If you ever wanted to be a meteorologist, I’d love to become a mentor for you. You have a lot of positive attributes that you should be damn proud of for being in 9th grade. Major kudos. Now back to the regularly scheduled hemming and hawing over models at 5-7 day leads

Banana high on this is classic too. Long way to go, but I’m optimistic.

Euro AI (AIFS) has the best verification of areal 0.25+” precip coverage at D3-5 right now, second best at D2 and still top 5 inside 24 hrs. It’s not the magnitude you want to pay attention to with AI. It’s the location of the precip distribution and the handling of the 5H mean trough/ridge pattern. It’s very powerful and definitely worthy of looking at for synoptically driven pattern. Convection is okay and still does a relatively good job at location of potential precip maxima, but it cannot handle the magnitude at all. Struggled mightily in that area, but useful nonetheless!

They both were interceptions. Rodgers ball was 100% picked, just like yesterday’s. They screwed ours, but I’m kind of glad because we would’ve gotten ran over by Houston. Anything, I mean ANYTHING to never see Faalele ever play for this team again.

Bo Nix out for rest of season with a broken ankle. Suffered it in OT. That is a WILD turn of events for Denver and the playoff picture.

It’s not even that good for SNE anymore. Cold air no where to be found

The models seem to be shifting to the HRRR and RRFS idea from this morning and they aren’t wavering, so it looks like that might be an issue for those of us in the lower elevations. Not feeling as good about the eastern shore anymore, especially the Lower Eastern shore.

For tomorrow, looks like things trended favorably for some snow back to I-95 and even some guidance going west of that! NAM Nest has actually been steady last few runs with its presentation. If it nails the thermals, this could be a sneaky good storm for the eastern shore. HRRR and RRFS aren’t as keen on it, but they are both outside their useful range. Just hope they aren’t on to something. Happy for everyone getting snow this morning! Pictures look great. Keep them coming!

This might end up being a huge AI victory here. It hardly wavered last 3 days and sniffed it out beyond 5 days. Loving my spot here west of Rehoboth Beach.

I figured we’d get here so long as AI held firm, and it most certainly has. Nice little event for the eastern shore brewing. I’ll gladly take that!

I work at the National Center but knew about the incoming changes to local AFD’s about a month or two ago. They want to have the most impactful upfront as the headliner with chronological reasoning in the discussion itself. The Key Message portion is a request through feedback as the BLUF statements are good for messaging awareness and what to prepare for in the IDSS realm. A lot of thought and feedback went into this change.

I’ll be down at my parents too. Watching playoff football with my Dad. Would love nothing more than football on the TV and some snow as ambiance!

I mentioned the AI models the other for the setup end of weekend and that still absolutely holds. The fact they haven’t wavered and are even upticking (albeit slightly) should be a tell on the setup likely having some legs here. There will be a sharp western gradient most likely as best ascent will focused in corridor within the RER of the jet situated off the Atlantic coast. Best chance for “appreciable” snow will likely lie east of I-95, and more likely eastern shore to the coast. I don’t see more than 3-4” in any given location at the max, but widespread 1-3” in the impacted areas is certainly plausible in this scenario. I like areas just west of the coast for this one. Salisbury to Lewes area might be a good spot, but we’ll see as we get the CAMs involved by tomorrow and definitely by Sunday AM.

Friend invite with company tix…no way in hell was I saying no!! Haha. All good. Hopefully we play better 3rd period like last game! Here’s to hoping