MillvilleWx

It’s wild out there. A completely different world. I want the front end thump to be like what the models show tonight. That will produce some insane dendrites and walls of white for a while.

You know who is going to absolutely clean up on this setup? @jonjon I’ve been noticing the wind pattern with this one out there. Davis might hit 30” with this one.

I would wait for sure, but it could be pretty difficult on Monday morning. Still some time to keep an eye on things.

That front end thump is a straight ass kicking before any flip. 1-1.4” of precip, all snow before any flip to IP on the EC for any area west of the Bay. The 700mb FGEN are textbook on Pivotal as the WAA pattern moves in. A solid 10-18” falls before sleet comes into the picture, and the storm actually ends as snow to cap off any sleet. This is a really strong WAA pattern being depicted now with the phasing depiction. It will come in really hot and heavy like a wall. Still time for changes. This system can only climb so far north with the current upper level pattern as progged. QPF prior to flip Snow before any flip 700mb FGEN

This makes more sense in a physics sense and the post by Tripol has a lot of merit. This is not a pattern where a low can drive hard to western PA and should in theory struggle to get to WV. This should be more of a primary to transfer from eastern TN/KY to off the Carolina coast. That’s what the AIFS is showing and makes more sense synoptically.

Man, it could be a beautiful sight around here if the CMC/UKMet come to fruition. I am actually on vacation and willing to travel if need be to get into the jackpot. Anyone care to host a meteorologist? I can cook really well, clean up after myself, and I’m a big fan of geeking out over snowstorms

This was the key. Idc what kind of cold air intrusion you have, a low onto Charleston, WV is gonna cause mix issues. If we get the primary closer to Knoxville area, that probably perfect. I would even work with Eastern KY. Just can’t get it north of there or there will be mixing.

It does, but it lowers the accum amounts per panel to account for the lower overall ratio of the sleet. It was 11” of snow before the flip for DC. Was looking earlier.

1043mb reinforcing HP over Quebec. I might shed a tear

Man, that run was great. I still can’t get over Nashville at 15+ inches of snow either being forecast. Their record was set in the 1890’s at 17.4” for a single storm. This is gearing up to be a potentially special storm for a large part of the country.

I haven’t looked too closely at that, but I would bet some slant-wise instability will be found somewhere in this. Bob showed a point sounding with a bit of MLCAPE which should promote a better opportunity for some thunder prospects. Considering the sounding Bob had, I would suspect the best chance would be across the Western Carolina’s up into Central VA within the primary 7H Frontgen pattern that materializes late-Sat PM into Sunday AM.

I’m with you on this, although I think north of I-66 is probably in the goods for this one along with the elevations in southwest VA. Looks like a good time brewing

Yeah, that sounding is a mauling of epic proportions. I mentioned to @wxdude64 tonight that I think 2-3”/hr is on the table during the storm height. It’s truly one of the better setups you’ll get at your latitude.

Yeah. I think the mix can make it to your hood, but that signal on the initial WAA thump is absolutely incredible. The FGEN panels are nutty with a deep DGZ layer correlating with the same time frame. You’ll probably see some monster dendrites followed by clumped aggregates that will accumulate hard and fast before any flip. Should be a great storm down there, Bob!!

If you’re in Lynchburg, you could very well see 15+”. There’s a chance this amps up and you mix down there, but your area is setup to get crushed by the WAA regime, at the very least. I wouldn’t just dismiss this forecast for you unless you are truly expecting this to shift well to your north. That said, TWC putting out a forecast is insanity at this range.

I’m in almost fully sold mode right now. Still want a full day of runs to 00z Thursday. If it holds through then, I’ll start making my forecast. This is shaping up to be a big dog my friend. Cheers to a whopping this weekend!

I mentioned earlier I have it at the 75-90th percentile. Yesterday’s 12z UKMet was the top end. 25-30” everywhere was insanity.

Thanks. Will probably fall short of that, but you might be pushing a top 5 all timer at this rate. I think the WAA stuff will come in like a wall. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 2-3”/hr rates with this one down there.

EC is close to a top end scenario, but I would put it at the 75-90th percentile at this point. 12z UKMet yesterday was the 99th percentile. This run is very very impressive.

What’s the record snowfall in Blacksburg? Was it ‘93?

19z NBM is gaudy to say the least. That’s an incredibly impressive signal at this lead.

Been busy and I come back to this output. Good God almighty. Danville, VA would be pounded into the F’in stones with that. GFS will come north and scale back in magnitude, but this is truly turning into what could be a special storm for so many. EC and GEM leading the charge along with the AIFS and Ensemble output. The hi-res are absolutely going to have some bonkers runs later this week and weekend. I like what I am seeing.

Seems like it which is always a great sign. I’m getting pretty excited, but still holding back expectations until 00z Thursday. Like the trends so far.

He was one of the best. My mentor in college. Learned so much from him that I still use to this day. His number one things he preached for a final forecast was “confidence”. When you make that final forecast, use wording that instills confidence for the consumer of the information. There’s always room to describe some uncertainty, but don’t wish-wash on something. Be bold. Never forgot that.

Hey guys!! Still trying to gauge the Synoptics for this storm for PA. One fact is the ratios should be excellent and have the potential to breach 15:1 in areas away from the M/D. The key is where the 7H FGEN aligns. The EC output is what you want as that helps with the second part of the system and really gets the prolonged snowfall signature across much of the area through Sunday, even lingering into Sunday night. I think the bar is probably 3-6” for the floor, and 16-20” for the ceiling. Still time to parse details, but the one plus is it’s either gonna be snow or no at this point. It expecting mixing at all for this subforum!