MillvilleWx

The Ravens snow game was that day. Unforgettable snowstorm for these parts.

Mentioned this yesterday and I haven't wavered on this forecast yet. I feel any wintry precip in the region will be confined northwest of the fall line. The key is the timing of the HP movement to the east and the the low attack. A few days ago, we had a little more stay in the HP to the north which would offset some of the warm advection from prevailing southeast flow and provide a deeper wedge to break through. Now the high is shifting east and in a classic spot for a positive u-vector wind anomaly to take shape earlier, eroding CAD prior to approach of the main precip field. Magnitude of cold is subjective, so it's plausible the wedge is deeper than advertised from the preceding pattern, or the low isn't as robust and doesn't have the stronger boundary layer WAA regime materialize making it easier for the cold to remain. The fact stands that the current forecast would yield little wintry precip for the lowlands and is shaping to be a classic elevation/longitudinal type pattern for the area. Further north and west, the better the chance. EC AIFS and AIFS-ENS are still in pretty good agreement on some low-end threat for snow/sleet prior to the setup yielding all rain for the area. Would need a massive shift in the HP to the north about 200-350 miles further west as @WEATHER53 alluded to in a recent post. Still super early in the season, so it's just nice to have something trackable at this point instead of watching temps in the 50s and 60s and swatting mosquitos into December.

Minor revision from previous forecast

Honestly, this isn't the first time this has happened with Monken....but this also happened under Roman too. There is one pretty significant similarity between the two and his initials are JH

That's not a bad look for the MJO if that were to materialize. Having it decay in Phase 8 and enter the COD opens the door for more prolonged cold and semi-active periods. Hopefully this is a sticky forecast.

No one, and I repeat NO ONE beats the Ravens like the Ravens

AIFS and ECWMF are in closer proxy to each other wrt handling the 5H pattern. A little flatter and confluence better for here, however the HP to the north isn't as pronounced compared to GFS/CMC which would play a role into the antecedent airmass domain the storm would attack. Guess is the GFS/CMC are too amped at the moment and will likely shift closer to the AIFS/ECENS combo. This has climo, fall line type event written all over it. Early in the season for the lowlands.

Caution when assessing the AI model at range, especially for setups that lean more delicate and have greater emphasis on energy ejections and thermal gradients involved. AI is a great model and actually performs very well inside 72hrs when it comes to 5H progression and MSLP characteristics. It can still be semi-erratic and off beyond the 72hr mark, although I will add that if the model doesn't waver much and it maintains credence inside 72hrs, it probably will be right more often than not. It's something to keep in mind when looking at the AIFS/AIFS-ENS package. It's a tool like any other piece of guidance, and it's verification is pretty damn good right now because it doesn't utilize the typical thermodynamic and dynamic functions that allow for greater swings in output compared to dynamical models. You'll know it might be on to something when it doesn't waver for a while and we begin reaching that critical point inside 48hrs.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! Doing my part by working this morning and afternoon. I appreciate all my fellow shift workers and first responders. Keeping the nation safe and moving. Hopefully all can enjoy time with family and friends

BWI: 23.7" DCA: 19.3" IAD: 26.5” RIC: 9.7” ----- SBY: 11.3”

Agreed! Will be interesting to see the trends on guidance through the weekend. I'll be keeping tabs on AI model outputs as well. Want to see some consistency on handling of the wave ejection at this lead and as we get closer to any event potential. Still a ways to go, but nice to see something worthwhile to kick off the season around these parts

I'll say this....This is actually a pretty classic way for this area to get on the board for the season. Waving timing and thermal gradient positioning will be the keys unless something else sneaks up to affect the pattern. Not too complicated, but still a tight rope walk in a way. Inside 7 days. We're keeping an eye on it here at the National Center.

0.25" at mi casa last night and early this morning 1.02" for the month

Hmmmmmmm *Cracks knuckles*

Jk....Ellinwood is amazing!

It feels good to be back I'm ready to be hurt again!!

I keep telling people this but no one wants to listen. I’m not an, “I told you so!” guy….but I’m not gonna be shocked if we lose once or twice to Pittsburgh and teams like NE/GB

Sorry to hear that

0.17" at the house 0.78" now for November

Same! Greatest game I’ve ever been to. I might still be recovering

Absolutely worth it!! I have mine signed by Louis and Kocin when I went to the Northeast Storms Conference back in 2015 and they were there celebrating a big Anniversary of the event. I’ll always keep mine. That thing is weather history and a comprehensive breakdown of all the best storms of the past era. 100% recommend getting and reading

Touching base on this. NC sites have been returned for view and MD sites are in the works to be back for viewing as well. The company that was in charge of data dissemination actually went out of business, so they are finding a new suitor for the MD sites. That’s what I have now, and no further information. I would anticipate a remedy by FAA and another partner in the future. Until then, the lines are operable, just not being disseminated.

This ruined my whole evening....Thanks

We actually had some very light rain! Lowlands continued to somehow score even a little bit in this pattern.

I’ve had this in my phone since 2016