MillvilleWx

Not so much. I am National center, so it’s only a slight headache lol My disco for the storm is out. Heavy Snow and Ice discussion WPC https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

I actually am not sure, but can't be a bad thing!

ECMWF definitely folded and the 5H progression is great through 00z, then it kicks east-northeast instead of north-northeast like it should on the capture. It's coming into better alignment with other guidance like the GFS and hi-res. It's still a little too dry overall considering the setup, but it's a big shift in the grand scheme and a final fold to how this will materialize. QPF is going to be tough with this one. Our forecast should be on the website now and it's a very sharp gradient from Easton to DC with more east. It's plausible it's too light, but there will be adjustments tonight. Still a general 3-6" for a lot of the region with 5-10" across the M/D from Carroll on east. The norlun trough is a stripe of 6-10" now. That setup is delicate. Updated forecast will be out later.

I can promise your house will get more than 3" of slop.....but you'll just have to watch Philly get crushed again.

500mb progression on the GFS is actually similar to the HRRR/RAP/NAMNest/NAM in terms of when the height fields close off and their general placements through 12z Monday. The GFS doesn't have anything beyond 09z Monday unless you're at the coast and drifts quickly to the northeast to limit additional snowfall which other models carry. I think it's cutting that off too quickly, and it also doesn't have the leading edge further north into the NW zones and the north-central portion of the sub-forum as it migrates the heaviest further south towards Rt50 and SoMD. I feel the initial is better handled by the rest of guidance. ECMWF is the furthest east, weakest, and driest. Unless is scores a major coup there, it's underdoing things too much, even if it had the "right" idea of being a bit further east. I am forecasting now and I can tell you I will not be using much EC deterministic, but more its ensemble blends to help with the forecast. What you see for the official WPC forecast is mine, so that will be what I think. I'll share when its online.

We have tools here at the office where I can look at snow levels of every model and I use them as tools for creating the forecast. Just one of the benefits of being on the desk! AWIPS and our tool integration are very sophisticated. I also look at soundings and check other variables to mentally calculate!

Sounds like a field trip to DFH in Rehoboth is in order. Official business

Idk who set that up, but that's actually our 90th percentile from our probability precipitation portal. I'm not sure why that says 50th percentile. I just checked and that is, to a T our 90th percentile. And yes, those are automated with an algorithmic process that produces a more gaussian distribution based off our forecast.

I think it'll be a little beneficial, but really like areas above 600' for the early stuff tomorrow. Any elevation helps!

If these 12z runs come to fruition, I think you'll do pretty well up there with the elevation factor and forever pivoting bands on the backside of this thing. I like 5-10" for your hood

I think we are running out of time for that big a jump, but never know. I think we are starting to see the goal posts narrow on the SLP placement. This sucker looks like a classic double barrel low with a primary low tucked due to the phasing 5H pattern. Truly a classic setup

Someone will see a nasty min from this storm, and my guess is it'll be somewhere west of I-83 to about the Catoctins. Norlun trough looks to be priming for west of there near the I-81 corridor from Winchester to the Potomac. We will see, but there will be a nice mini-max where ever that formally sets up.

A little bit. That one was an I-95 special. That radar in engrained into my memory bank. The CCB oscillating over I-95 for hours until the closed 5H center out of WV finally caught up to it and stacked off SNJ. This one will be stronger in terms of pressures and winds, but somewhere will get a gnarly deformation axis and snow will undoubtedly linger into Monday if this gets captured near our latitude, which seems to have some growing consensus.

This happened with the Feb 2006 storm. I'll never forget seeing the visible satellite that morning after staying up all night with the heavy thundersnow.

Over 1" in my hood along the bay. I'm really liking the area along and east of I-97 right now.

It's the HRRR at range, so take it with a grain of salt, but to say it's awful was not even remotely true for our areas of AA Co. That was an onslaught.

There will be an ultimate loser out of this on the western edge, but it's tough to say where. The norlun trough is going to be really important for you guys to hit max potential. I'm semi-bullish for areas of NE MD down along and east of I-97. I'm bullish af for areas east of Cambridge latitude. Delaware is the place to be for our sub-forum.

WPC current forecast for BWI is 6.5". You think AA Co gets sucker holed? I think AA Co is probably good for 4" with more east.

I forecasted 6” for your area today before any of this calamity started from the 18z and 00z runs. I’m hoping this CCB hits the 95 corridor flush and we can all sing kumbaya

That includes you my friend

I would shit a brick if we got a redux of that. It’s still my Dad’s favorite rates driven event. Said he’s never seen snowflakes bigger than he did from that one.

Heaviest snowfall for east of the fall line looks to be just before sunset and beyond so should be good. Anything earlier than that, I agree it’ll be difficult. I’m curious to see the dynamic in that for this one. Probably some weird gradients forming in MD and NoVA.

Along and east of I-95 will need to watch this very closely. This is giving shades of some of the monsters of the past for east of the fall line. I feel really good if I’m along the west shore of the Bay and points east.

I would only end up with 18”. Boo hoo!

I was seeing 12-15:1 in the CCB and norlun on the desk today from guidance. I was shocked. It was brutal 5-7:1 during the day, but as height falls ensued, it crashed hard to climo and better. Even the NAMNest got to 13:1 on the eastern shore. Someone is about to get hammered on the Delmarva and I’m liking my spot here right along the west shore of the Bay. Hopefully we can bring this home