MillvilleWx

Thought this would be a good time to make a rudimentary snow map for ole times sake. Apologies for the crude map design. Doing this on my phone, but still works good enough. Each area is a zone with a first call forecast. Might have a few edits later, but this could very well be my only call. Forecast Zone A: Nothing-1” (Trace begins north of Potomac latitude); Up to 2” possible if everything breaks right Zone B: 1-2” w/ max to 3” if everything breaks right Zone C: 2-4” (Highest across Parrs Ridge; elevations >600’) Zone D: 2.5-5” w/ local max of 6” (Highest along the M/D Line and elevations >850’. Lowest in elevations <275’ in valleys) Zone E: 5-10” Catoctins: 4-6” w/ max to 7”

20° at the top of the hill and 10° 1 mile away in a valley. Incredible

You guys are putting way too much time into a NS dominant system. Do yourself a favor and prepare for nothing and hope for more than that. I don’t waste my time with those evolutions in the Mid Atlantic. We aren’t New England.

I imagine it holds or shifts the slightest bit north. It’s been consistent recently, which is great for my hood being consistently over 3”. Good dynamics should help with this one so long as the jet doesn’t cross north of us.

Pretty neat microclimate in my part of Frederick. Low was only 17° this morning but the neighborhood across the way of Monocacy in a “bowl” got down to 12°. More decoupling occurring naturally at lower elevation. Fast forward to now and that same station is 3° warmer than my place (26 vs 23) so the elevation is again playing a role. It helps with snow as well being at over 310ft while places around me are 60-80 ft lower. Pretty cool

I have nothing to add right now that hasn’t already been said. I hate NS dominated systems, but this one has more potential than our usual nothing-burgers. General 1-3” with up to 4” in the hills and areas along and west of US15. ECMWF has been fairly firm on its depiction last succession of runs. QPF between 0.15-0.35 will be common with better lift through the aid of a strong mid-upper speed max cutting underneath. Should be in the left exit region of the jet for a period of time on Friday to generate good lift and nice dendrites before everything pushes out. Those looking for a bigger hit (6+”) should probably look elsewhere. This is missing some components for a bigger storm. The main component decided to rush out ahead of the primary vort which will negate full phasing or even more substantial interactions. Unless that slows down and the NS can catch it with short term trends, bar should be 5” or less everywhere.

Busy day! Just getting around to seeing this my man. Haven’t looked too closely at Friday, so I’ll reserve any comment until I get a better look at guidance. It does look like a close call for a moderate event in the LSV and around the Mason Dixon. Best opportunity is currently north. I’ll try to chime in tonight with more when I get a better handle. Today was a lot of running around and taking care of stuff, plus snow cleanup. Man, it actually was nice to be cleaning snow!!

Glad to see everyone cashed in on the storm. Looks like 3-5” was very common. Let’s smack another on Friday!

This was such a great storm for everyone. The lower density snow fall to coat everything. The rates were even solid for everyone at points. Everyone scored. Hell, we even got a flash flood event in Georgetown!

I slept more this morning and missed the additional snow so I’ll keep my total at 4.7” for the call. That period from 7-Midnight was the sweet spot. I agree. It was dumping for 2 hrs between 945-1145 that really piled up the accums. Had another wave between 1230 and when I took another measurement when it felt like a snow globe. Was in my element

Sounds about in line with my total. We had a few bands affect the north side of town last night that probably boosted us a bit compared to BC. Great storm for our hoods!

In MD, if you do it properly, every morning can be crunchy

4.7” with some compaction likely after I went to bed. A beautiful scene out there. Great storm

This was a solid storm overall. Best part was the thermals being fairly friendly for mostly everyone. Many got the 3-5” forecast with some likely near 6” in NoVA and will be approaching in northern MD. I give it an A for the performance.

Great to hear! It’s been a great storm for the metros. Very much needed. Let’s get you guys to 5!

Feel better Katie!!

Man. That band near Odenton is a beast. Any reports from there?

Hey y’all! Just a heads up. Forecast seems on track, although will need to watch the eastern side of the sub with the coastal enhancement. That could yield a decent suprise tomorrow if it breaks correctly. This has been an over performer for many, so it wouldn’t shock me. I like the WSW in place for York/Lancaster as those areas of the best place for a positive bust given the expected 85H frontogen placement and deeper column saturation to correlate with better dendrite formations and efficient snowfall. I’m pulling for everyone to get a nice piece of the pie and enhance the wintry scene expected this week. Check back later today for those pics and totals

1:15 AM EST report: 4.3” in 5N Frederick Light to occasionally moderate snow continues. High ratio fluff for sure. Vis around 0.5-0.75 SM. We should make it to 5” here and could make a run at 6” if we get into a good band or two. The little storm that could!

I almost spilled my drink

YES!!!

Same! One of my absolute favorite dynamical meteorology components. Can tell a good part of the story of an event when coupled with a few other factors. Awesome! Should push 6-8” I imagine up at your lat and elevation. If the coastal gets going, you could definitely push 8” imo. Let’s hope!

Yeah. Banding is establishing itself fairly nicely again. We’re pushing over 4” now. Will take an official ob at 1am.

Steady light to moderate snow in north Frederick. Small flakes, but a good amount of them slowly adding to totals. Will take another measurement in a hour or two.

Seriously. This is such a great forum. We have our moments, but the general knowledge and comedic value is just too damn good. So glad I found this place way back in 2011-12. Also, I’m off all this week and next weekend. We need to plan a meet up. I could go for some drinks and grub down in the district.