MillvilleWx

I’m sure my wife would be very happy to know that

I’m always looking for the Brazilian model to base my entire forecast on

I need to go to Spain so bad. I know someone who lives in Barcelona and they said they would house us if we came over. Might have to take advantage of that!!

That ECMWF site is probably the best right now for public use. I’m sure there are others, but some are behind secure networks that you need authorization for. We are in testing mode for a lot of these and one of the cool parts of graduate studies is there is more emphasis on AI for use in operational settings. I can see them being incredible helpful in 5-10 years.

It’s wild. And parsing ICON data is wild to me. That model is terrible.

Where that line ends up for the R/S designation, anyone NW of that has a great chance to see high end advisory to low/middle end warning criteria snow. This system will be bringing the juice. Will come down to thermals

Yes we have! They are helpful with forecasting in the medium range and are gaining steam on being an integral piece in decision making at leads. ECMWF has a great set of AI tools we utilize.

We know the drill in these setups. Temper expectations, but globals are not going to get the CAD right at any point, especially at leads. I’m looking forward to dissecting the Nest, HREF, and HREF probabilities for everything. Climo wise, you’re in a great spot.

Guys, I’m not saying to discount the ICON, but there’s a reason we don’t include it in our verification stats for deterministic at the National Center. It’s like the NAM of the globals.

If there is one thing our area we live in does well and it’s that. CAD is a beast to erode in the valley. It’s why the US15 on west corridor is mentioned so often for staying most or all frozen in these events.

JI Melts is basically a free square. Almost cheating

Man. I just read everything and I would’ve thought everything went to rain. Looked at guidance and the blends and… we really are mentally in a horrid spot in this subforum after the last several years. 13z NBM this morning looks great for those NW of the fall line. Idk how many times I have to say this for this setup; historical precedence for setups with in-situ CAD with non-Arctic air masses tends to favor those NW of the metros with a changeover much more likely for areas southeast of that geographical marker. NBM is a large assortment of guidance with tons of LAMP, GFS/EC/CMC deterministic and ensemble members, and other guidance that has weighted means to aid in the forecast. Is it perfect?, No! Is it statistically significant and helpful in forecasting at leads greater than 3 days?, you bet. Not saying we’re all going to be singing kumbaya. I’m saying to temper expectations at leads. We are still in ensemble land. We haven’t even seen some of the better short range guidance that handle thermals better as we close in. Deterministic gets these wrong all the time. Large scale features need to be monitored. I’m not basing any forecast on the global deterministic handling of any PBL thermals. Now on to 12z…

Too early now, but later this week I’ll drum one up so long as things look solid!

Thanks! It feels great to be back on the east coast and I get to actually track something for my back yard again I think the trends right now are positive for the LSV and south-central PA area. I would imagine the favorable spots along the Mason Dixon up to the turnpike are in a good area for the time being. Too early to talk totals, but the key will be the storm not going too far south and the confluence to the north doesn’t thwart latitude gain. Analogs right now are pretty solid for the region, so I like where you guys sit at this point. I’ll come by and add some insight as we approach. Perhaps a snow map is in order!! Been awhile since I did one for the subforum.

Howdy everyone

NBM continues to be impressive at leads with the mean QPF and snowfall forecast. Odds are increasing of 1-1.5” QPF during the time frame of the storm, so you can deduce some average ratios of 7-8:1 to as high as 12-14:1 during the storm height within any banding. A pretty good indication of 6-10+” is on the table if all things break correctly. In-situ cold will be great leading in with drier dew points. That should aid in wet bulbing on the initial surge of low-mid level moisture that’s accustomed to these events. Good trends overall.

Good seeing you in the sub Andy! Hope all is well down in Norman. If you ever want to take the NWS route, feel free to reach out. Hopefully the southern stream can give you guys some fun later this month through winter.

Synoptically, that was a solid run overall. ECMWF is too warm with the thermals in the boundary layer. In fact, it has heavy snow within a deformation band over FDK into central PA with temps at 34F. That's not happening in this setup. Takes the thermals with a grain of salt. UL progression was still good and is well within the envelope of potential outcomes. Fall line and west are still favored and those east and south need to temper expectations. This is a classic storm with those caveats. The CAD is there, but this isn't an arctic driller.

Ahhh. Gotcha! Happens to the best of us. Could be worse. Imagine seeing it while submitting your discussion at work

I can't see the image

This was what I wanted to see. A better in-situ signature on the lead will work wonders for the initial precip, as well as maintaining a decent PBL profile during any storm height. There's some serious members too on that high. Saw some 1035mb or so readings when looking at the member plots. Great to see.

You sure about that? The mean at 85H during storm height is -2 with 10th percentile at -4C and 90th at 1C. It was actually a nice showing imo.

Canadian is just another solution within the margin of error. It was the snowiest for a succession of runs and now it flips. I'm still in ensemble mode and will be curious to see where the means come in. A storm is 100% in the works, just a matter of how the upper pattern evolves with translation at the surface. Finer details will not be hashed for several more days yet. Everyone should just take the deterministic as a viable solution within the margin.

I was noticing that too. The energy is sort of left behind over the OH Valley and it allows the storm to not gain as much latitude. Could very well be noise in this type of setup. What I liked was the persistence of the high over the top and the energy cutting underneath. A little more phasing would've basically produced the ICON simulation. Not a terrible run and actually kind of where you would want to see it in the medium range. GEFS should be pretty

Saw that as well. I have to stay up that night to prep for night shifts. I might go for a little drive out west to see some flakes and keep me awake.