MillvilleWx

True dusting in Edgewater area. Was still flurrying as I went to and from the store. Beautiful out

I keep an eye on it now along with the rest of the suite of models. Been pleasantly surprised at how it’s been performing.

Me and the Met on the QPF desk had lots of conversation while doing the forecast today. We both were taking note over the past several days of the AIFS remaining steadfast. I felt it was necessary to add to the disco as AI has been around for a while now and we have verification scores, and we have enough data to see trends over the past 1-1.5 years. It’s been a great tool to see where things could trend. When the AIFS is locked in, it has been really helpful. It was really good during Hurricane season and so far it’s been decent within mid-latitude evolution. Still not perfect by any means, but it’s very useful in the right scenario. This seems like it has some merit. I will say that the AI isn’t going to replicate banding structures very well and the QPF output is smoothed compared to dynamical output. That said, I believe it has the right idea and some minor shifts could still occur, but I think we have the main synoptic evolution down. Just down to finer details and thermal profiles.

You’re welcome

Light snow in Edgewater area. Man, what an awesome winter this has been for the lowlands and surrounds. Let’s keep this rolling thru Sunday, shall we?

First step is typically calibration, but sometimes it can just be in a bad spot for sunshine when it's directly on it. It's tough to really find a sweet spot for a weather station unless you have a huge yard or open field where it's at its best. I'd calibrate first, then try shifting if it still has that issue.

Your lips to God's ears....and hopefully my backyard

I'm telling you guys, when the AI is this locked in, everyone should take note. It's not a true dynamical model that can sway with regular perturbations like a ECMWF/GFS/(Insert Model here), it's basically a really well programmed analog with a historical dataset that it references on each run. When it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck....

I’ll move this over here so that it doesn’t get lost as it pertains to the coming setup.

It doesn’t mean this is a lock, guarentee, etc…but that’s a pretty good sign at lead that it might be on to something. Now, this pattern incoming is very complex, so it might not grasp the magnitude of what’s to come, but you want to see run-to-run consistency on the AI, that’s for sure. Hopefully it’s seeing something that the operational ECMWF can connect with as we move closer. We shall see. A good experiment for this pattern. I’ll be keeping tabs.

I said this is a good snow pattern We should get some snow out of this. Whether it’s “FOLKS” worthy or not is up to some timing/phasing luck and positioning of the thermal gradient in the right spot. GFS was pretty damn close as @psuhoffmanmentioned. ECMWF was on the money. Should be a fun 7-10 days of tracking once again. Winter is still rolling along. We still have February to go too.

That’s really impressive for moonlight. Wow

That was @WinterWxLuvr I’m not sure what happened to him. I enjoyed his posts.

Popping in to say that’s a sweet 5H vort panel during the storm height. Hopefully this has legs. This is a good period for snow prospects.

Crazy game. The Mid Atlantic is a great spot to be for football fans.

Season Total: 11.6”

Absolutely! Would love to meet both you and @wxdude64 for a relaxing weekend with some cold drinks. Will absolutely keep in touch with both of you guys so we can plan a meet up. Would also love a good spot for some grub, so feel free to pass on those recommendations

Pretty simple forecast here. 0.5-2" for basically everyone at this juncture. Not really much room for boom potential. Boom is probably 2-3", so there might be some WWA's that come from this one. I won't even be here for any of it, so please enjoy any flakes that fall. I will be living vicariously

Heights flatter as it approaches our area. Trajectory of the 7H moisture field is east-northeast and too far south. Best chance in the sub for anything of significance is likely south of Rt50 and mainly the Eastern Shores of MD/DE/Part of VA. This wasn't a good run for many here. Not totally dead, but approaching if this keeps up. The 5H pattern was just not applicable for our latitude.

Looks like 10.5" Jeb. Good storm for your old stomping grounds

I might make it a point to come down and visit! Love to travel and visit new areas. I'll shoot you a PM at some point in the future to coordinate. Little busy for this month, but there will be other opportunities in coming months for a shot

I might have to come visit yours and @WesternFringe area at some point. You guys have quite the microclimate down there with the elevation factors. Probably incredibly pretty too in all the seasons.

Kuchera is useful in some cases, but you really have to be mindful of the algo. Last storm was a case that it differed from model to model and if you didn’t account for that (Hello, it’s me), then you could be a little too high on the forecast. HRRR corrected inside 12 hrs with the last forecast and that’s why totals dropped and became more realistic. RAP and a lot of the other CAMs did not and it inflated everything. This is a 10:1 type storm with MAYBE slightly higher for areas that get banded, like the eastern shore. EVEN THEN, 10:1 might still be the preference here. This is something I will be mindful of in the future, for sure.

With skies beginning to clear out, winds will begin mixing more efficiently to the surface. Blowing snow will be occurring this morning and afternoon before subsiding later. It is truly deep winter in Edgewater with snow blowing off the roofs of houses with locally reduced visibility occurring. Peak climo for snowfall in these parts too, so there is low probability of much melting today outside some very sunny spots.