MillvilleWx

I’m pulling for everyone to max out as best as possible. We already surpassed whatever the NAMs were showing. Just trying to capitalize on the time before the pingers begin their onslaught.

Yeah. There is a sharp gradient with the ratios with a steep climb in better ratios for north of I-70. Easily were pushing 18-20:1 in the initial part of the storm. They have come down even here recently, but it’s still probably a solid 12-15:1 for WV Panhandle across the northern tier. HRRR actually did a masterful job at showing this part on last nights runs. Very consistent. Impressed, but still have to see how the morning plays out. Fingers crossed for both of us and the northern tier that we can hang on till 11am-1pm before it definitely flips. Feel like Leonidas in Sparta saying, “HOLD” when looking at the radar lol

This band is no joke!

Bordering heavy snow up here now. It’s coming down great in this band up here. Easily north of 5” and will make a run for 6”

4.8” at 7am for out here. Moderate snow continues

Should’ve said sleet. Midnight brain is real. Any ZR wouldn’t be till this afternoon or early evening imo for MD/NoVA

Hoping you can hit that 6.0” mark!! I’m out here betwee MBG and Shepardstown. I’m thinking 8-10” is pretty doable at this point. Perhaps we can push a foot! Will be close. Enjoy the snow my friend

4.0” on the official 6am ob 12z/7am measurement will be sent to Sterling Steady SN, still not heavy just yet, but absolutely pouring snow out. Gorgeous

Hi

Measurement incoming at 6am, but trained spotter less than a mile down the road from me was 3.0” at 5am. Should be pushing 4” or more with this measurement. Pics and measurement to come

SN- to SN with more bands about to swing through. We measured 1” as of 320AM. HRRR doing well up here with the storm, so far.

No chance. I would be SHOCKED. 2021 was beyond anything I thought I would ever witness living in Texas.

Yeah. I’ve met some normal people there once

Internal model ratio is really nice too. QPF solid for our areas. The key is that morning period. Really slams us good out here.

Oh okay. You referenced CAD, so I was more talking about traditional surface CAD. Here it kind of holds on a bit longer due to latitude, but they will changeover out here. Sorry if I misunderstood!

Further west in these setups is typically more favorable. Cold air near the surface is very tough to erode within the Piedmont down through the Shenandoah. South to southeast flow can eventually get here and change over ptype, but they are last to change in a typical setup.

The key for out here is that one 7hr block between 11-18z. The 7H jet really cranks and precip explodes over eastern WV and slides north. That’s actually something I’ve noticed with the AIFS doing as well and why it keeps a maxima of QPF and snow over our areas. HRRR is indicating that and other CAMs have similar signatures. 1-2”/hr are 100% possible in that type of evolution. Never breaks out of the teens during height of snow. Dendrites followed by massive aggregates before the flip. Should be fun….hopefully

Beautiful out here! I wouldn’t mind living in the Panhandle. Long commute, but man! It’s so pretty

That’s actually model output my friend!! Ratios out here average 11-12:1 on a normal setup. Welcome to the great NW (Crew) lol

Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one

NW crew should like trends. Not even looking at Model or Kuchera ratios, QPF is between 0.65 to 1.1 inches prior to flip. Average and NBM put Winchester through Berkeley/Jefferson Counties in WV around 0.75-0.9” of precip with a vast majority falling between 11-18z. Ratios will be very high overnight and slowly fall after 11z, but still easily 13-16:1 throughout most of the event. Unless NAM’s win on thermal progression (they could), I think 7-10” is very plausible at the low end with 10-14” very much in the range if the rates come to fruition.

About 6 miles east of Martinsburg, WV Currently 14.9/-4.0 Let’s rock!!

Yup!

Final Forecast for the Storm Some adjustments were made to reduce snow a touch and increase sleet which is a lower ratio component of the forecast. Still will be a formidable storm with some ice accretion added for good measure. A lot of the snowfall range should be take for a south to north crescendo with higher ranges more likely to the north of the lines presented. Will not be perfect by any stretch, but gives a good proxy. High impact event regardless as cold air behind the storm is very legit and we will struggle to break freezing for several days post storm. Be warm and safe everyone!

They run away with the tupper ware bowls