MillvilleWx

US 15 corridor on west is in a solid spot right now, so I wouldn't be too concerned. I'm off Wormans Mill on a hill there, so I am currently looking at probably teleworking my night shifts if this pans out.

Yeah. He’s okay I guess In complete agreement with @wxmvpete I mentioned earlier today that we haven’t sorted out many of the minor details within the mid and upper pattern leading in. There’s feedback mechanisms that will lead to the storm potential and those will take time to solve. This doesn’t even account for minute details of the thermals once we get closer, so long as there’s a storm to follow for our area. Complexities abound. Just remember, it’s still a ways before the impact time frame. Relax, follow along, and don’t live with each model run. We have a long way to go

Honestly don't have words for this offense right now. Just insane

It's a wonder more of you aren't true alcoholics watching models at D7 and basing your emotions for each run. We likely haven't even seen the expected solution yet. Ensembles and cluster analysis are best at this range. All options are on the table. Lean storm coming north compared to being squashed due to lack of blocking and weak confluence to the north, but also don't think everyone in the sub will get skunked. If you're along or southeast of the fall line, I'd temper your expectations on this one. This is likely not a classic 95 setup. We are lacking a true antecedent airmass or drilling high. If that changes, then game on, but not the most likely solution at this juncture. I'm curious to see the GEFS for this one.

One of my top 3 favorite storms of all time. This solidified my goal to become a meteorologist as I was thinking about college applications

It's part of the equation. There's a lot of spread in the ensembles with that western system, so that will be another piece to keep an eye on in the coming days

The 5H vort panels tell the story with the differences in both the GFS and ECMWF. The difference in the handling of the northern stream is vastly different between each model, thus the outcome on guidance is different. GFS has much more interaction between the northern and southern stream where as the Euro is completely disconnected from the two leading to any surface reflection unable to gain any latitude. Will be interesting to see how it all evolves over the next week. I'll be monitoring, but I won't put too much time into it at this lead.

Pretty quiet across the CONUS at this point, so the ERO desk is fairly tame. Decided to dig in a little for our threat on the 7th since it's probably the best game in town for the next 7-10 days. Latest NBM was encouraging as the trend for more precip within the mean and within the bounds of the 25th-75th percentile have increased incrementally from run-to-run. Mean QPF now within that time frame is up to 0.30-0.40 across much of the sub-forum with more located over the high country of WV and western MD. The most promising signal was the increase in PoPs for the time frame of the 7th. We've seen PoPs jump from 0-10% at best for much of the area to now into the 20-30% range which is a sizeable jump in less than 24 hrs. One of the reasons I've noticed is likely due to the increasing signal of a better mean height field within that Day 7-9 period where probabilities for heights between 538-546 have improved a bit underneath us which implies more amplitude in the trough being seeing within the ensembles (Grand Ensemble includes ECENS/GEFS/GEPS combo). Cluster analysis from the latest run indicates one camp now coming into play with a deeper 5H trough east of the Mississippi allowing for greater diffluent potential downstream within our neck of the woods. The strength of the mid-level short digging into the Midwest will be important as others have alluded to, and there's some support for that growing within the ensemble suite which likely caused the positive feedback in greater mean QPF forecasted within the NBM. It's a delicate setup considering we don't have a solid arctic airmass to work with, but the temperature profile this time of year doesn't need major anomalies to help us score something in a favor mid-level evolution. I'm lean no on anything major unless we see a greater meridional look within the longwave pattern, but a small event to get many on the board is not dead by any means and actually has some favor within a cluster of ensemble members across globals.

Great post. I mentioned the other day that winter was really just getting started and the best time is still a month away. When you have all the cold on one side of the pole and the other side is above normal and limited snow/ice cover, need some time for the airmasses to do away with the warmth and establish itself better. I like end of Jan through Feb as the best time with March a question mark, but by no means out of it that month either. I know some here want snow on the ground that will last a long time, but truth of the matter is...unless we get a huge snow, likely not going to be the case this year. This is typical around here anyway, so I'm not exactly upset. I just want to see snow fall and accumulate. If you were looking for a long winter feel, very likely not happening this year.

FYP

I know this is late, but I hope everyone that celebrates had a very Merry Christmas. We surprised my folks at my sisters place this morning as they were not expecting up. Getting up at 5am and driving all the way to NW of Philly from Frederick was worth every mile and second of travel. Was a great day

Personally I’m going full Jobu and sacrificing a bucket of fried chicken for the storm as we speak…

Thank God I can watch the Vikings game on Fox. I couldn’t bear to watch that debacle

Some of you guys worry way too much about long range stuff. I haven’t seen anything that says, “Shut the blinds”. I only see things ramping up to get started. The best month of winter isn’t for another month yet anyway. Enjoy Christmas and time with friends and family Stop hand-wringing over something you have no control over! It’s bad for the psyche.

Low of 27° this morning at mi casa. The neighborhood in a bowl across from me bottomed at 24°. Cool little microclimates around there on these calm, cold mornings.

I am also much better at short range forecasting and LR stuff to me is just nails on a chalkboard. I enjoy all weather, but anything beyond 96 hrs I start to lose my sanity. My work now is 72 hrs and in and boy do I love it. I like making the big decisions. As for that map PSU showed…hot damn!!

I approve of those 5H ensemble looks. I have been waiting for JFM because I thought December would be tame in the winter dept. Some already got more snow than all of last year. Can’t be upset heading into the meat of winter with those looks. Solid run(s).

Late to the party, but got down to 22° at my place in North Frederick. Cars were frosted up pretty good when I left for work. Tis the season

Couple flurries this morning in north FDK. Temp a balmy 36° out

We’re a pretty good team, but idk if we are the class of the AFC with the way the Bills are playing. I know that sounds ridiculous, but our O-line is going to keep us from winning a championship unless they get their head out their a** This team lives and dies with the trenches. When we control the trench, not a single team worries me. Until then, we still have something to prove. Bills line is elite and gelling at the right time. SF line is elite with Trent Williams. Can’t have Lamar HAVING to make plays with his legs all the time. We are missing a healthy LT. When we won in 2012, our line went nuclear in the playoffs. Flacco had forever for 90% or better of his dropbacks. We had holes to run through. It was magical. Maybe I’m being to critical, but that’s my take.

That was a great W by the Ravens, but it does stink to lose Mitchell to an ugly injury. Ravens defense came to the occasion in the 4Q and really got into Lawrence’s head in those final drives. Overall, thought Lamar played some of his best football that game with his playmaking ability and magic to get out of a collapsing pocket to extend plays. The O-line wasn’t that good last night, but showed flashes of brilliance. Week 15 of me thinking we’ll need to draft a LT this off-season. Stanley just isn’t the same after all those injuries and now, to his own doing, he probably has a concussion. I don’t see us beating SF, but maybe I’ll be surprised. We need to take care of business vs Miami and Pittsburgh. Playoff bound though, so can’t hate that. Onward and hopefully upward

2.34” in North Frederick A solid soaker

That’s awesome! Hiking is certainly a way to get into better shape. It’s also a lot of great scenery and fresh air. Hard to beat.

My wife and I might have to visit said Taproom in the future and order a round or two from you

The hike was amazing weather for this time of year. This was one of the harder hikes for me, but slow and steady won the race. I have lost 30 lbs since July, so I’ve been trying to get into better shape. A 6.5 mile hike with 725ft of gain along with several climbs and descents along the way…this was a tester. Making it through made me feel really good and it’ll be something I try to work on through time. I felt accomplished getting it done.