MillvilleWx

Just saying for many of us in here, the front end portion of the storm on the EC was still a warning level event before the coastal enhancement. SWFE’s around here tend to surprise in a positive direction. Keep that in mind. Idk if you guys remember the forecasts going into Feb 2014, but we obliterated the forecasts on the SWF portion of that storm and exceeded expectations. This storm has that type of potential. That connection of moisture between 925-500mb is incredibly healthy. We just need the general synoptics to hold. This is a southern stream addition we haven’t had in a while. That will make a difference to who gets hit the hardest.

Yes, Thursday will be everything coming into the NA RAOB network. However, we are putting recon schedules out to sample the area in the Pacific that will play an importance with the digging energy in the coming days. We will have plenty of sampling going on. N/S is probably the area to keep close eye on, although that seems to be well documented on guidance right now.

As @Eskimo Joealluded to above, the fact the GEFS is still showing warning level snowfall on a mean after what we saw from its deterministic partner is a positive attribute to have at this lead. The other guidance seems steady with its presentation which should also solidify the prospects for a MECS. Models can have hiccups and the GFS is no stranger to them. This is still a very good looking setup with some important pieces still not even fully materialized yet. We’ll see some model discontinuity on occasion until every player is on the field of North America and it begins to play out. If the EC suite comes in similar in its presentation last succession of runs, then it’s all systems are a go, still.

Thanks. The Canadian inputs will be a nice touch, especially around the Great Lakes which we’ve seen with verification. Does better with LES physics and outputs absolutely bias low on the NBM 4.3 around that area. Also noticed the 5.0 biases low on these synoptic scale setups, but does do a solid job on the edges, so it’s give and take. We’ll be chatting as we get closer to implementation. Excited for the new changes in version 5.0. Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Still in testing. It runs several hrs after the NBM 4.3, so that will bump up with the next run, don’t worry. It also is biased low on these kinds of setups. This is what the testing is for! We have lots of comparison analysis and notes for developers that will be sorted out after the winter season.

You and I both know that those are some gaudy percentages at this range. This is usually reserved for upper echelon potential to see this type of signal. Gonna be a fun storm, man. Been a long time since we had one of these. Your area looks incredible for this one too. Let’s bring it home

That is an incredibly bullish NBM output right here. As is, this is probably closer to the 50-70th percentile outcome. The 75-90th percentile is likely 20-25% more on top of that. I’ll be around following today, but I got errands to run later, some of which involves around preparing for this monster. Really like where we stand right now.

I don’t think people realize how ridiculous this AIFS output is in the grand scheme of things. This is a crazy output that would certainly lend credence to a potential for 1 inch or more of QPF for a large portion of this sub forum. Even if you don’t get 1 inch of precip from this set up you can still walk away with 8+ inches of snow. Incredible set up. We have brewing right here. Good times

That is straight from the Dynamics textbooks

The ICON was a positive step in the handling of 5H with even some room for more improvement for the sub-forum. The GFS will get on board by Saturday afternoon

ETA (Old NAM) and Euro

Did you try Walmart Connect?

Thank you my man. I’m a weenie at heart, but I’m also a meteorologist by degree and occupation. It’s important to remain level headed and balanced. I want this stuff as much as anyone, but weather is a fickle beast. Gotta stay grounded! Appreciate the kind words.

This is what I told my Dad. Cautiously optimistic, but not completely in the fully sold category.

Still a chance, but probably lower than normal. I’d be very sad, but I’m also willing to chase this one so long as there is a storm. I’m just hoping it holds for the area so I can chase from the couch.

Meeting in the middle. This storm will have some dual maxima with it too which the smoothed means will not be able to handle, including the AI guidance. As it stands, this would be a QPF bomb with a sharp northern edge. This is one of those setups where you could go from nothing to 0.5” to 1” in under 100 miles.

The 7H and 85H moisture track with a weak 85H low reflection still back into eastern TN. I’d say at least another 6-10 hrs looking at 3hr precip panels and progression. Precip still likely back into the Apps with that look.

I’m not kidding, I thought about you when I saw that sounding and this FGEN map. This is a classic setup for something like this to materialize.

In the words of @psuhoffman , “Pass the cigarette”

Wasn’t me, but I concour! 12:1 average through storm with some chance at 15:1 or better at times. Need this to hold friend!

7H FGEN ALWAYS comes into play for these setups. A secondary jack will occur on the northern fringe and that can actually be pretty prolific. That happened with a few storms in the past where people in Central PA were puking dendrites and got 1-2’ while we got hammered further south with the 85H FGEN and traditional deform. More than one way to score, and that stuff is a long way from getting resolved. I like what the ECMWF and AIFS are depicting. GFS improved too, just a bit different on evolution.

It’s worse than the Euro for sure. It’s like a cross between Euro and Icon. The N/S absolutely destroys any chance that run. The 500mb pattern is night and day from the last two runs. The 5H vort panels say it all.

Different types of setups for those two. Those were split flow phasers in a pattern where blocking was prevalent. Atmosphere slows down and allows for phasing more easily. This one is more overrunning with blocking to the north to anchor in a cold high and maintain a general WSW to ENE progression of waves ejecting out of the southern plains.

The energy is a massive piece of the equation and if that goes sideways, it’s over. Probably the biggest question mark in the whole deal inside 84hrs. Then the confluence afterwards.

It’s not just the strength of the high, it’s the confluence area that sets up between the TPV lobe off Nova Scotia and the impending s/w digging out of Central Canada. The stronger the high, the drier the airmass and colder temps at latitude, but if you have an ejecting piece that phases and pumps the heights out in front a bit, you’ll get precip, but could be more mix. My main concern with this setup is and will always be suppression. It’s a tight rope walk, but a weaker confluent axis tends to verify a little closer in reality, but we’ll see.