Mesoanalysis still has the best 85H FGEN well to the south closer to CHO and points southwest. This will migrate northeastward over the next several hours with the best forcing likely positioned in that circle above the arrows. This is the area that could see a steady 1-2"/hr rate period that will last 3-6 hrs before it moves off to the east and that's when the rates will subside before the next round comes through later today. By then, many inside that circle will be at 6-12" and then we wait for the bonus snow with the vort pass to our south. Good times here y'all with the best still to come!
I'd say within the next few hours is when we'll hit the heaviest part for you guys. I'm a little later and linger longer out my way. Sweet spot right now is just to the east of you which has been well modeled by CAMs thus far. Still a solid storm for your area for sure.
Typically on a snow measurement, you want to keep to the "tens" place after the decimal, so anything that ends with a 5 like ___.15, just round up to the next digit. It won't inflate totals much. You'll be good!
I'm doing hourly measurements in one area and 6 hourly in another for the official. Want to see any compaction differences since....I can lol
Measurement incoming in 5-10 min
Steady Moderate to borderline heavy snow. Just puking small flakes at a break neck pace right now. Flake size is slowly increasing. Best FGEN will be in the area in 2-3 hrs, then "Katy bar the door..."
Love to hear it my man! We are solidly racking up the snow here. Haven't measured yet, but got to be pushing towards that 1st inch already. Steady light to moderate snow with heavier echoes starting to push up towards our hoods. Life is good!
Yeah. It's really impressive down there. The system has a long way to go. We just started the goods for the area. Let's keep this party going, shall we
Snow is a steady light variety but picking up in intensity slowly. Everything is completely covered with a solid coating. Storm just begun too. Great start with the heavier returns still off to the southwest with a ways to go.
The modeled Kuchera ratio for this part of the storm is 8-10:1 with 12:1 all the way into Carroll County. It doesn't improve until after 10z when the better forcing arrives, and even then 9-10:1 for DC and 10-11:1 for an average unless under better banding. 12-15:1 for areas along and north of I-70. Kuchera is doing fine so far and the model algorithm snow from the HRRR is also fine. I don't see anything wrong the forecast right now.
We might not start until after 2am according to the HRRR for the last several runs. So far everything is going according to plan. Every run for you and I has us in 8-12" before the second batch even comes through. We're good!
Probably not. Just along the immediate coast, so like right on the water at sea level. All you have to do is live a football field away from there and you'll be totally fine. I wouldn't sweat anything tbh. It's going to snow really good tomorrow morning around these parts.