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MillvilleWx

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Everything posted by MillvilleWx

  1. MillvilleWx
    @CAPE has some of the best shots in the sub when his house gets caked in snow. Legit dreams right there.
  2. MillvilleWx
    It's nice to see you south and east folks get a bit of a heater every once in a while. Doesn't happen often, but y'all can cash when things are right. I'm hoping we all are dancing with a couple inches of snow at least. Anymore to me is gravy. I'll be with my family and watching snow fall. Not much to hate there.
  3. MillvilleWx
    06z Euro would have been a nice spot for the sub-forum. Solid snow probably I-95 on east with Advisory level stuff to the west, easy. @CAPE @Lowershoresadness @frd and anyone on the coast would have a great time if that run kept going.
  4. MillvilleWx
    Popping in for a quick thought on the storm. I mentioned last night (Or the night before. I can't remember what day it is on mids), that these Miller B or hybrid types are not our climo, but the threat was certainly not dead. I do like the prospects of some light snow, at the very least while the 5H vort pivots overhead and provides a period of ascent over a pretty suitable airmass. This might be a close miss in the end game, but these storms needs a lot of ingredients to go right for our hood. I'm gonna be home for once and it might snow, and I got to tell ya, that is the one thing I am hoping for. Snow falling is just something I enjoy, no matter the intensity. I prefer heavy snow, but who doesn't? If that's a way we can score 1-3" FLUFFY inches, then so be it in my book.
  5. MillvilleWx
    Just wanted to pop in and say thanks for all on a fairly tame and easy read to catch up on 12z guidance. I’m basically still half asleep, but I got up briefly and couldn’t go right back for Zzzz’s, so I read the boards. I’ll post some thoughts during my night shift. Pretty excited about the trends. Hopefully keep the ball rolling through tonight. Enjpy y’all
  6. MillvilleWx
    Dogfish Head Roadtrip this weekend? Also, guess who just happens to be coming home Jan 27th until Feb 5th
  7. MillvilleWx
    That 06z GFS was a MASSIVE step in the right direction. If you go to pivotal and look at the model trend for the 2PVU Pressure, it is very close to what happened on that magical 18z Saturday run. The shifts are stark, there is no denying it.
  8. MillvilleWx
    If the ICON was right in that presentation, you'd need to go on Anthem of the Seas to see any snow. That ridge is way too far east west of the Continental Divide
  9. MillvilleWx
    It's definitely closer than prior runs, which I think is a positive step with still some time left to mediate the smaller shifts into something more respectable. One thing I do like is the prospects of a little snowfall prior to the SLP generation with a bit of a diffluent signature prior to the mean trough pivoting eastward. I think that could still give a touch of snow to the area regardless of the coastal outcome. An earlier neutral/neg tilt would only enhance the pre-game component. Something to monitor in the grand scheme of it all.
  10. MillvilleWx
    Ridge out west has more amplitude as well, so the s/w trough digging through the plains should have a deeper meridional component. It's certainly not a terrible run so far.
  11. MillvilleWx
    Night shifter here back from the dead. After looking at things, I want to remind those that want to be out that you should still be in as the trends are more in and less out, but that doesn't mean we are in in, but less out than we were in last time we were out. You catch my drift?
  12. MillvilleWx
    So, basically every snow map so far this year?
  13. MillvilleWx
    NS dominant disturbance that favors a Miller B outcome, or a hybrid of sorts. We can get them, but typically that is a New England favored generation. There's a modest s/w over the south that could be involved as well, but the main player is a strong s/w exiting out of Central Canada and driving south with a pinch and close south of our lat with a SLP generation over a favored baroclinic ribbon along the east coast. Not enough dig, late close off, late phase with the southern stream, etc would all cause it to fail or hook and miss. The fact the s/w digs like it does provides the opportunity, but it's still not a climo norm. Pattern does favor some latitudinal premise in a s/w digging, but timing is everything.
  14. MillvilleWx
    Anyone that thinks a potential storm is solved at Day 7/8 is absolutely out of their ever loving mind. Is it climo favored for us? NO Is it dead in the water? Also NO Anyone who does this every single day with the lamenting on a run by run basis needs therapy or to move to NNE. This is the Mid Atlantic. Our storms don't usually show up until 4 day leads to begin with.
  15. MillvilleWx
    It's a map! More details at 7AM
  16. MillvilleWx
    Just read a pretty interesting fact this morning.... Did you know that by replacing a cup of coffee with a cup of green tea in the morning, you can lose up to 87% of your positivity going into that day?
  17. MillvilleWx
    Couple closed contours over Tennessee says otherwise
  18. MillvilleWx
    Holy hell this flopped like a D rated horror film from the 80s. Boundary layer was just too warm to overcome. Sorry y'all
  19. MillvilleWx
    This map just gave me anxiety
  20. MillvilleWx
    I’m not gonna lie, the SE portion of the sub is still well into the game, but areas west of a Richmond/Cambridge/Rehoboth line are down 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th. Not totally out of it, but the 5H pattern needs some major shifts to get any appreciable precip up to 95. I would still keep an eye on it! Hampton roads area is certainly in the prime spot. My map from yesterday will need some adjusting
  21. MillvilleWx
    Trough remained positively tilted allowing the SLP development to not really gain latitude. Gonna be a miss to the SE again for DC area. Still a solid storm for the Lower Eastern Shore.
  22. MillvilleWx
    I think this is a very solid forecast. Topography and proxy in lat will be a big part of the max potential for this kind of setup. I mentioned earlier I really like the M/D folks with someone like @psuhoffmanbeing in a phenomenal spot for this setup. 850-700mb frontogen is actually solid for wee hrs of Thursday through about 15z. There could be a nice surprise heavy snow for parts of the region. I do like 1-3 south of I-70 at max potential. 2-4 with a max of 5” for north of I-70 with best chances over the northern tier of MD.
  23. MillvilleWx
    I’m thinking 6-8 cm is possible
  24. MillvilleWx
    1.4" +/- 0.12"
  25. MillvilleWx
    Areas north of I-70 might do pretty well with this setup. The M/D folks might sneak away with a solid advisory level snowfall. Wouldn't be surprised with a 4-5" jack from a line of northern Fredrick over to northern Carroll/Balt County. A spot like Shrewsbury or Mt. PSU would be my pick for the winner overall with someone like @losetoa6also in the running. Nice little storm
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