MillvilleWx

Word to the wise: As we get closer to the storm time, please leave all opinion pieces and inexperienced meteorological breakdowns out of the thread, please. I could sit here and post like crazy, but I let the run finish. We have a good set of PBP guys here for these types of events. Let them post and then comment after everything is over. Sincerely, Your friendly neighborhood Meteorologist

I’m curious at what type of ratios we come up with over the weekend at the winter desk. I’d wager an avg of 10-11:1 for most here, but some of the better FGEN banding will probably poke 14-15:1, especially the 7H FGEN which will lie on the northern edge of the best QPF. Still fun to talk about snow in these parts before the hammer drops. Will feel like deep winter.

Hey Cashtown! Sadly, I don’t work the Medium Range desk, so I will not be producing any of the QPF maps between D4-7. Hopefully we see a nice uptick as we move closer in time. D1-3 are when I have the ability to make the QPF maps, and that will actually be the case this weekend as I work the QPF desk on night shifts. Catch my work then

Anytime! This is what I do and love to look at. Hopefully we ring in the New Year with a great event and get the winter rolling.

The GFS and CMC moving north match the cluster analysis of the greatest percentile of ensemble members between the 12z GEFS/ECENS/GEPS from earlier. This is likely some beginning of stabilizing in the evolution. There will be changes in magnitude and orientation of the 7H moisture feed over the coming days, but I think the trend of the North Atlantic gyre being further northeast was a big step in the right direction for the region. Still a ways to go and minor adjustments in either the primary ULL over the Mid-South or the North Atlantic Gyre will cause some deviations in the poleward advancement of the main moisture feed. Good trends tonight. Happy New Year everyone!

18z GFS takes a step towards the ECMWF and resembles the primary cluster of ensemble guidance when reviewing the 12z cluster analysis. The Grand Ensemble was a mean of 2-3” area wide with the 1-2” mark all the way down to Roanoke and the 2-3” mark beginning Fredericksburg and north. The primary cluster representing a solid 39% of ensemble guidance had a mean of 2.5-4” with a more widespread 3” margin across NoVA up through Southern PA. I think we are seeing the GFS begin the shift of a weaker North Atlantic Gyre and more in-line with the primary ensemble consensus. If that trends weaker, this will end up further north. Need the primary ULL over the Mid-South to stay robust so it can gear up prior to reaching the Tennessee Valley before it eventually gets sheared and the moisture axis funnels up into our hood. Atecedent airmass is prime, so the main ptype should be snow for most of us.

Knowing where is sometimes half the battle! We had so many places in mind, so I'm glad we are exploring where to settle. Mt Airy seems like the best fit, but we are enjoying AA county right now, so we will be weighing our options in the near future. There's some beautiful communities in both areas so we have our work cut out for us.

I did actually. Moved to Edgewater the end of July. Loved my time in Frederick, but we felt it was better to be a little closer family and a shorter commute to work. We still might move to Frederick county as our final landing place since we are just renting currently. We love the Mt Airy area, so it's possible I end up back that way in time. Mt Airy is a perfect in-between spot for commute and family. Northern AA county is also possible. We will be weighing our options the next few years. 2026 is when we will likely purchase our first home!

I'll provide a little more on my take for your general area. I do like the idea of a more robust QPF shield being depicted amongst the guidance considering the favorable 5H pattern. The ECMWF is more amplified thus bring warmer air into the boundary layer faster and giving the TN Valley area mostly rain with perhaps a touch of ice at the onset. The GFS is playing some catchup and is the weakest of the guidance with a stronger cold pattern anchored into the region and takes much longer to scour out. Canadian is in the middle with an ice to rain type scenario with areas north of I-40 possibly starting as snow before flipping to sleet/ZR. Still tricky to come up with a definitive solution at this point, but I do like the precip field being more broad and robust compared to the proverbial "weak sauce" that the GFS was depicting in prior runs. Hope you guys score down there! I have friends of mine that live in Glasgow, KY and they have an infant. It would be awesome for them to send my wife and I more pics of the little one in the snow

DAS!!! Man, between you and @mitchnick here, I'm getting all the nostalgia feels. Hope you are doing well!

Been busy at work so just now getting a chance to assess things. So far there is still significant spread with the handling of the 5H pattern across the North Atlantic with the extension hanging back into the Northeastern U.S. @CAPE pointed out earlier some of the appreciable differences upstairs with a touch more phasing of N/S energy extending back to Canada leading to a stronger axis of confluence and shearing of the primary 5H shortwave progression out of the Mississippi Valley. One positive take from the GFS was a better precip shield developing across the Mid-South, something that had been missing in previous runs. This makes sense considering the stronger closed 5H vorticity and subsequent 500mb LER jet dynamics accompanying the trough. There's likely to be shearing as a result of the cyclonic gyre over the North Atlantic, but we'll have to see if this is a case of Medium Range bias in over amplifying the 5H Relative Vorticity evolution as can be the case within these D4+ leads. I do feel the analysis of the eventual trough in the plains and Tennessee Valley will be solved a little faster given the time frame the energy reaches the CONUS and becomes a factor in cyclogenesis is <72 hrs in progression, so the fact that has trended favorably is a step in the right direction. Deterministic output has been shotgun spray when it comes to the final QPF within that D6-8 time frame as each global displays a different prog meaning there's very much variability in this pattern. These types of setups tend to lean further north due to the bias of over amplification of the downstream 5H evolution noted above, but that doesn't mean that will be the case this time. Ensembles have been pretty useful with regards to the anticipated QPF with the GFS boosting precip within the area over the past 4 runs (See @NorthArlington101 post above) and the other ensembles remains relatively steady with varying QPF magnitudes more noise within the mean. NBM maintains a general 2-4" across much of the sub-forum with the max situated over Central MD back west, a favored climo pattern for storms that run west to east in trajectory. I'm curious to look at the cluster analysis and see what differences within the ensemble members give us the best and worse case scenarios along with which cluster has the highest percentile of probable outcomes. Time will tell and until I see something more concrete in either a great or terrible scenario, I have no strong feelings on what has been shown on todays 12z suite. Just my $0.02

DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT.......

It was really chilly in the lowlands of AA this morning. I was around 33F myself with frost on the windshield. Quite pleasant. I love cool/cold mornings

Going to be deep winter out in your parts jonjon. Enjoy, and be sure to post pictures

It's those dynamical features that get overlooked in the grand scheme that end up creating surprises. I pay close attention to those details. Also, the topographic enhancements in these parts that don't get solved or mentioned closer in can have a significant impact on totals. It's why I prefer the short range over long any day of the week

One of the things I like about these setups is that stronger 850-700mb FGEN on the northern periphery of the precip due to that confluent feature over the Northeast. There tends to be multiple banding structures within the FGEN schemes, typically 7H FGEN located north and 85H located a bit further south. We've had cases of this in the past that overperformed, especially within that northern 7H FGEN band. The progression on the ECMWF would be a great start to the winter in these parts. Thermals look great. Strong CAD signature within the boundary layer. I'd sign on the dotted line at this point, but we know that ain't how it works lol

Don't even get me started on that one....

The handling of the 5H vorticity across Canada will be important in the final outcome here as noted by the GFS/ECMWF discrepancies. Until one caves to the other, we will have dueling outcomes. The jury is still out for the setup and bet we haven't seen the final result yet out of any run. One thing that is notable is a majority of the these outcomes, regardless of evolution are yielding some form of snow/winter precip. Always good to have ways to score.

That's one to save for posterity lol

Pretty hard to get the PV displaced over our hood. Can only imagine

That would produce some insane snow squall activity that would impact our area. Idk if I've ever seen the 5H evolve like that before. Kind of wild to see.

Totally get that. I'm hoping he has a long and healthy career. Always loved watching him at LSU. He's a playmaker and proven winner. You guys got a great one!

If he doesn't win OROY, I will absolutely riot. He was incredible this season for a rookie. You guys have a special one in Jayden. I think it's cool that the most dynamic QB's in the NFL both play within 40 miles of each other

I'm going to provide some background on what I mentioned about January. What is being advertised on model guidance is bordering on historical precedence when it comes to the potential Arctic outbreak over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS. There will likely be several shortwaves migrating through the flow that some sneaky light events could pop up on the proverbial radar that are not yet known, coupled with the more organized storm chances. There will be snow squall type activity that also would be available during the sharper Arctic air intrusions across portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast that will come into picture as we get closer. Strong Arctic boundaries provide modest amounts of instability and one thing we have learned from past cold outbreaks is a fresh injection of Arctic air is usually accompanied by significant low level lapse rates and mid-level ascent that would allow for opportunities of significant squall potential that could reach our latitude. The pattern will be complex in nature. Anytime you get a progressive northern stream involved, it will be tough for NWP to know specifics at range, so tread lightly with absolute declarations 5+ days out. Changes can occur and will likely have shifts to potential organized precip regimes up until game time. We know how it rolls around here. The big dog potential is real....but it is not set in stone. There's opportunity for nothing major in this pattern. Timing of disturbances and the phasing process/potential will be critical for the opportunities over the course of the pattern evolution. Messy phases or off timing could skunk us and leave us cold and dry for a majority of the outbreak. That is something I want to preach to people who are banking on a lot of snow. This is an intricate situation that has high reward AND bust potential in the snow/ice department. The one thing we are gaining a lot of confidence on is the duration of the cold and the sustainability of the pattern being opportunistic for multiple weeks, perhaps lingering into the back half of the month. That's why I say people might not understand the gravity of what is to come. I remain optimistic we will see snow, cautiously optimistic on something significant, and very confident on the duration of the cold. The magnitude of the cold is gaining traction that this will be the coldest spell in terms of both duration and magnitude since the extended cold outbreak of 2017 and potentially on par with some of the better Arctic intrusions the past 30 years. For those that are not super well versed on pattern evolution and NWP breakdowns, I HIGHLY suggest sitting back and taking notes, asking questions, and learning while others more versed interject. I did this for years, including while I was in college studying this stuff and it has paid off dividends. Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

The whole month of January is going to be really wild. Idk if everyone is ready for what's to come.