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Everything posted by MillvilleWx
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The changes we are seeing really up the ante for a Rockville to Columbia deathband don't you think?
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Completely agree. I'm sitting on the sidelines out here in Texas, so I'll have my popcorn ready reading on here and watching web cams back home. I'll be back in less than a week for a vacation to see the family, so hopefully I get a nice storm in the future. Been boring as heck out here this winter.
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Certainly looks more plausible, but even that was a nice eye opener. H5 progression looks pretty solid on the run too. Could we be on to something? Have to watch the rest of the guidance suite to find out. Good start though if you want a bigger snowfall.
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The deformation banding on that run was absurd. Even if 50% right on the total precip, that's a bonafide warning snowfall all the way to the border. I would not base any forecasts off that for the time being. But, if we see trends like that run continue, then maybe some triggers will be pulled. I'm with Wes, I would hate to be in Sterling's shoes right now.
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The storm is about to happen, which means he's looking for the next one.
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It's top 5 for the circumstance, but it has a long way to go before approaching the #1 status lol. 36-48 hours before Nemo in Feb 2013 in Boston, it had 55-60" near the metro. Nothing has come close haha
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Cannot show the graphic because it's in house only, but WPC Super Ensemble has around 6" mean for snow at DCA for the event, which is right in line with a lot of numerical model guidance. When you remove the 3 highest and lowest outliers, it's right at 6" still, so the prospects for warning level snowfall is above average for the DC metro. IAD is running a mean of around 6.3" which is still in line with WSW criteria. BWI is at 5", so right on the borderline of WSW criteria, but longevity of snowfall to achieve the amount will likely place BWI on the outside looking in for an initial WSW, but will likely maintain advisory and adjust up if necessary. Other areas of interest and mean snowfall forecast are as followed: OKV: 6.4" MRB: 5.4" FDK: 5" HGR: 4.3" APG: 3.7" OPL: 7.3" EZF: 7.4" CHO: 7.2" SHD: 8.2" NHK: 6.3" SBY: 4.1" GED: 5.3"
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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
MillvilleWx replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Agreed! I know exactly where you're located. You might be right on that mix line, but sometimes you gotta smell the mix to get the heavy snow. It might be a bit pasty over there too, so it'll be a sweet landscape when all said and done. -
Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
MillvilleWx replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Everyone in here ready for some snow? My parents live in Southern Sussex county in DE. My dad and I agree 2-4” in Millville is probably a good call with potential for more. Rt 50 probably the mix/snow dividing line. North of there should see 3-6” easy. . -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
MillvilleWx replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I remember it like it was yesterday. I also remember not being able to play in it due to a severe ankle sprain I got 5 days before the storm. I watched it all unfold from the inside of my house. It was crazy watching all the news reports and hummers getting stuck in the snow. Great storm. Wish I could’ve went out in it more, but life happens . -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
MillvilleWx replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Well, I broke the tie lol. Kind of surprised I never voted yet going this long. Any who, I voted for Feb 5-6, 2010 because it was incredible to follow for the days leading up and boy did it deliver. 32.5" later at my old home north of Baltimore. Most snow I ever saw until 2016. That storm was incredible in terms of impact. Feb 9-10 will always have a special place in my heart for the blizzard conditions occurring during the height with 40-50" base around my neighborhood. Not sure I'll ever see that much snow at once where I live ever again. Magical. 2016 might have been my biggest snowfall, but I was working during the event and really stressed out, so I didn't enjoy it as much as I would've liked. I'll certainly never forget it. As far as pure impact goes, Feb 2006 is not up there with the big guns, but with regards to impact on me, it was the storm that made my decision to become a meteorologist instead of going for a major in accounting. I was in HS deciding where to go to school, and that storm made me realize how much I wanted to become a meteorologist and forecast the weather, fulfilling my dream of working with the Weather Service. Now, here I am, 12 years later doing what I aspired. That storm, and it's 4.75"/hr rates, thunder and lightning, and measuring in shorts and snow boots will always be etched in my mind. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
MillvilleWx replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Congrats all on an amazing storm. Big ups to Ray for cracking 30". Welcome to the club! I've witnessed it 4 times in my life with PDII, Feb 5-6, 2010, Feb 2013 when I traveled to Waltham and Blizzard of 2016. Feb 2013 is one of my favorite storms of all time. Nobody messes with y'all's blizzards. Enjoy! -
I know. Was just pointing out that precip anomaly wasn't rain. Not the same setup by any means.
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I really do feel bad for you man. I've driven through the area, and I can see how you get that shadow effect.
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'83 was a very dynamic storm. Very heavy snow over MD, DC and NoVa during the height with thundersnow across the area. It was a moisture bomb, so the snow consistency was a bit on the wet side, but it was a higher ratio at its height when best lift was centered over the area. My Father told me he ended up with 23" at the end of the storm with over a foot in a 4 hour span. Thundersnow woke him up and visibility was below 100 yards at one point. Great storm. You should go read up on it. One of the best the area has had in last 50 years.
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That record precip value in 1983 was not rain either
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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
MillvilleWx replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Over 12" now in Millville, DE down to Selbyville. Looks like another 2-5" possible before calling it quits later. Awesome storm for the shore! -
Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
MillvilleWx replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
My dad just sent me video from the area your located. Visibility around 300-500' at best. Crazy band that went through earlier had to be 2-3"/hr. Enjoy!! -
Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
MillvilleWx replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Hey y'all. Just checking in. Looks like best storm of the year for everyone in the sub-sub forum. After looking at everything, thought I'd pop in and give a call on totals. Thinking southern MD around St Mary's will see 4-8" with local to 10" if we get decent band or 2. Areas down toward Somerset and up to Salisbury will be in 5-10" with local of 12". The coast is where I'd want to be. Va Beach and Norfolk should hit 7-12" with local to 15". This line will run up to Assateague and OC, MD to southern Delaware in Sussex Co. Local blizzard conditions possible along the coast from Norfolk up to OC Inlet. Might not get full Blizzard Warning criteria met, but could be close. We shall see. Def a great storm with fluffy type snow so it will stack quicker than normal. Enjoy the storm!! -
Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
MillvilleWx replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Dad in Millville, DE reporting over 2" of snow with some nice bands heading into southern DE. Enjoy guys!! Glad y'all can cash in -
I'm with you there. Supposed to go to Caps game on Friday. I'm hoping for a stone cold crushing in DC so it gets canceled. That would be brutal to travel in coming from my way.
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It's gonna be a roller coaster ride and a half that's for sure. Hopefully you can post in this thread at weeks end with deck pics and the little one playing in snow up to her chest