MillvilleWx

I also see this and one of the reasons I bumped my snow for BWI higher than anyone else. Just looking at recency bias would lend credence to a more active coastal track with baroclinic proxy somewhat closer to the coast. Have had a lot of lows actually positioned very well so far in fall with QPF fields in good placement. Still missing the all important cold air to sustain any winter precip, but it was still out of climo. Roll that same kind of H5 height pattern into latter December through early March, and you have to like chances to get a good storm or two. We shall see. Unlikely I'll see any snow this year unless I chase it. Looks like ice would be our biggest threat down here, but you never know. A good snow here is actually not a good precursor for back home, so I'll take my ice or cold rain lol

I can agree with this. It certainly seems like that's the narrative lately. Hopefully for y'all sake it continues. I'm not super bullish on this winter by any means, but I do see a fair amount of chances incoming for the season. Actually bumped my snow fall forecast a bit as a result in the contest. And my wife and I are doing okay out in Texas. We do miss home. Hope to get back to or at least closer to the ole stomping grounds in time. Really taking advantage and learning the intricacies of forecasting in the NWS. It's pretty awesome. I love what I do, but I need my snow

Nice look Showme. Pretty consistent pattern evolving next few weeks with higher heights building over the western US heading into December. A prime split-flow pattern with ample disturbances traversing the sub-tropical jet. Still a bit hesitant from what I'm seeing on the ensembles in the extended, but I wouldn't worry too much about that now. In fact, both ECM/GEFS begin to take on a better look after mid-month. Source region for cold will be solid, so even a shutout will have some benefit for later in the extended (i.e beyond mid-December). I'd take that look anytime.

BWI: 26.5" DCA: 17.8" IAD: 27.2" RIC: 11.8" Tiebreaker (SBY): 13.1" *Guesses subject to change based on future outlooks, model delusions, and a night with a bottle of Crown Vanilla

Nah. Ers and me both made forecasts a few days ago, stuck with our guns, and have been solid so far. Didn’t know if you saw them or not. Not everyone wavers with models in here [emoji2]. LWX did a great job imo. They have had an awesome year. Major kudos. All we got out here is wind and feet of dust this winter lol .

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I was following that forecasted fronto last several days and basing my forecasted snow off of it. Models were somewhat jumpy on the timing and orientation, but settled in yesterday. Good to hear from you. From one Scott to another!! I’m enjoying watching all these posts from sunny, chilly Midland. .

I'm thinking 2-5" with some ZR for you and my old stomping grounds. Going to look pretty nasty around the area. Can only imagine Harford Rd Jarretsville Pike will be a complete mess

Midland, Texas lol

34/24 with clearing skies and scattered dust

IBM Deep Thunder Super-dooper LR Hi Res Ensemble says 2021 we'll see a drive by clipper drop 2". You're safe

In laws near Laytonsville with just under a foot. 11.9” official with light snow. What a great storm to follow. I’ll be back for this weekend and next weekend though. Let’s reel in a few more shall we .

Walking off all those Cheetos. Leaves room for celebratory Cheetos .

Getting some influence from the upper level feature moving in. I call it ULL, Upper Level Love. When it's a well defined and closed ULL, it's double the fun

Yeah. I watched the whole extended radar loop from the night and you were just missing the good stuff to the south. Hampstead probably cashed it was that close. At least it snowed to break the snowless drought and my god does the long range look sweet. I can't wait to be home for next week. I fly in by Noon Friday and by then, we should be tracking a pretty formidable event or two in the near future. Enjoy the snow with your fam. And you know, that whole football game today

Your area is right within my forecast right now. Not a bust anywhere in the entire region as far as I can see. Maybe the MD line, but that's it. Sorry @psuhoffman

This has been a fun storm to follow and watch unfold. Glad many are waking up to some pretty good scenery and higher than forecast totals. I'm not going to do a grade on my forecast until everything shuts off. Upper level piece later on should make for some fluffy snow and high ratios as it pulls through. Models are back and forth on where the best axis of snow will setup, but my guess is somewhere near I-95, then pulling east. I think a low key spot to enjoy the upper level fun will be interior eastern shore. Good times though and multiple areas should get 8+ out this system. That was not even on most people's expectations 36 hours ago. Southern stream systems are fun. Should be a nice start to what will be a very active 8 weeks incoming. Enjoy y'all

BUT THE HRRR!!! /s .

Hey guys. Here's my updated snowfall totals. After getting up at 315am this morning, I'm dog tired and will not be doing a long post this go around. We all know what's been transpiring in terms of model guidance. I think I'm still hedging conservative in spots, but this is my final call for the storm. Now, here's a great storm for everyone in here. Enjoy!! I'll be watching from the sidelines in the Lone Star state. Snowfall Forecast by Zone: Zone 1: Havre de Grace: 1-4" Bel Air: 2-5" Baltimore County Hereford Zone: 3-6" Timonium/Towson/Western Baltimore County: 3-7" Eastern Baltimore County: 3-6" Baltimore City: 3-6" Northern Carroll: 4-9" with local highest along Parr's Ridge (Manchester/Westminster/Hampstead/Mt Airy) Southern Carroll: 4-8" Howard County: 4-8" Eastern Frederick County: 3-7" Northwest MoCo: 4-8" Zone 2: East of Bay including all MD/DE counties: 4-10" with highest totals across interior areas including Easton/Kent Co/Interior Sussex Co. 3-7" along the Atlantic shore AA County: 5-10" with max to the south South-Central MD counties, including PG Co: 5-11" Central and Southern MoCo: 5-10" NW DC: 5-10" SE DC: 6-12" Center City DC: 4-9" NoVa: 6-12" Frederick County: 4-10" with highest in Western Fdk Co and along South Mountain/Catoctins BWI: 5-10" IAD: 5-10" DCA: 4-8" Zone 3: Valley Areas with elevation below 1200': 5-10" Appalachians and Blue Ridge/Allegheny with elevation above 1200-2400': 8-14" Blue Ridge/Allegheny with elevation above 2400': 10-16" Zone 4: Shenandoah Valley areas: 7-12" Central Va: 8-13" with highest to the east Southern MD: 6-12" SBY to OC: 4-9" Richmond and Areas south of Dashed Line: 2-8" with highest to northwest of Richmond. Mixing issues possible south of dashed line.

Enjoy my man! Hope you get wrecked out there. Looks promising from everything I've seen along I-81 in VA

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I've been waiting for you to chime in Heavy. Good to hear from you on this one. Looks like your area will be getting the goods down there in Laurel

It was a model run I was waiting for and it certainly didn't disappoint. I'm going to have to up my forecast totals in most areas, but it'll be a conservative upgrade. I'm going to wait until the 12z Euro before I do anything.

Can't not like the look. It's certainly looking to be a nice storm for many. Enjoy a good stout for me!

It's a little more than the previous run, but nothing eye popping by any means. The jet structure was a little better from hr 18 moving forward, but nothing that would scream a NAM like outcome. Still not bad. GFS isn't the model I would be following right now. Euro is probably the only global I would give credence to. ICON is hug worthy, but it's the ICON so..... lol