MillvilleWx

Try out Pulaski, NY off the east side of Ontario. Should be mostly snow there, both from synoptic and lake effect on the backside of the low. You also have I-90 to your disposal to move north or south. Slide down to Oswego and hit up the Oswego Sub Shop for a great corned beef or pastrami sandwich.

There's just something so satisfying about a good dry aged steak. I'll have to give the Capital Grille a try for my wife and I's Bday this year (Both turn 30 in the summer). Nice little getaway to Dallas where they have a spot uptown. Dry aged Bone-In Ribeye sounds heavenly

I could easily see that as well. 850mb winds are pretty light prior to Sat morning on both models before ramping up in the afternoon. 925mb temps are very slow to erode however, showing the model is sort of seeing the wedge hanging around, but likely still too quick in the dispersion before the boundary layer finally warms. Just a 100 mile southeast jog on current progs and it's a formidable winter event for anyone west of the fall line. Curious to see ensembles on the Euro as well to see what kind of positive winter evolution(s) it's spitting out. Exactly. That's wedge into north GA kind of cold. You keep that look heading into the week and you're bound to see some icier solutions show up in the mix.

Whoever is "writing off" the weekend event after that one run of the GFS is crazy. Given a ~1045mb high in place over Quebec prior to the system making it, the surface CAD wedge will be very difficult to erode, even if the storm cut. Propensity for these modeled storm at lead is to be over amplified with increment adjustments in the short term. Given the H5 evolution, a more west-east trajectory is possible for any low that would develop (On the current look. That could easily change). The key takeaway is the prior confluence signature to our north remaining steady, leading to strong Canadian HP to slide overhead before the approach of any system to the west. I actually didn't mind that run. I'll be in Disney starting Wednesday, so I'll take my one front and 80+ temps, but I'll try to follow along this week.

Come on man. You know better. His wife left him too. .

GFS is one step closer to Bob’s dream of a foot of ice [emoji2] .

Keep the southern wave train running with that shift in the high latitudes and you’re bound to see some frozen down the line. I am really really liking the setup for February if this shakes out close to what is being progged. Even down here for that matter. Any blocking in the NA is icing to lock in the freezer. We know what happens when cold is around and wave lengths shorten. Good stuff in LR ensemble land. .

Natural grass!

Rain is actually not a given during the game. There's been a trend of a big lull in the precip field for Saturday afternoon and most of the evening prior to the front. Could be spitting drizzle during the game, but actual light rain is looking less and less prominent. Would bode well for us. Fingers crossed it stays the course.

Best QB/RB combo in the league this past year

But will this be the case at 815PM on Saturday? Asking the important questions

God I miss home. It’s low key one of the best spots for snow in southern Baltimore Co. Glad to see the area cashed in [emoji2] .

That enhancement that models had over central MD is coming to fruition. As PSU has been mentioning, almost a bit of an IVT look to it. Areas north of I-70 and east of Rt 15 will probably see some decent rates 2-4 more hours. Someone is gonna get between 5-6” when all said and done. .

That certainly makes sense. That's likely the issue. I still like that radar a lot. Just have to be wary early on in these types of setups. Enjoy the snow up there!

Thanks Mappy! I'll forever follow what's happening back in my old stomping grounds. Hopefully I can get a job at Sterling and come back to the Motherland

Yeah. Something weird. Looked like it was doing a solid job for most areas. I still enjoy using that radar a lot. Have had it bookmarked for years. Enjoy the snow Bob. I'm living vicariously.

Yeah, I just mentioned that to Mappy. It's doing decent job south of I-70. Not sure what was happening north of there. Oh well. Radar or not, it's snowing up in your hood. Enjoy! And next time you're at the Casino, $20 on black for me. I'll Venmo

I actually noticed that as soon as I typed that response. Weird that is was off up there. It's doing a great job south of I-70 at least. It's shaking off the rust . Enjoy the snow!

That is honestly my favorite radar to follow during an event. It's extremely good at pinpointing the changeover line(s).

Still worthless in this setup! That's it. That's the update

Some great photos down by Roanoke via Spann Twitter. Looking forward to seeing similar obs later from y’all .

HREF mean snowfall for the region is between 2-4" for a majority of NoVa west of I-95 all the way to the north in Central MD. Probability threshold for >4" accumulation is fairly low for a majority of the area, but there is a focal centered north of I-70 from Northern Frederick to the east across Carroll and Baltimore counties. The 1hr snow mean is actually pretty impressive for a 4 hr span beginning at 20z through 0z for the central MD crew showing a general 0.5/hr accumulation. but pockets of up to 0.75"/hr. Remember that what is shown is a mean, and not necessarily a slam dunk. 1-1.5"hr for an hour or two is very much in the cards, so localized amounts exceeding 4" north of I-70 is possibility. We know the usual suspects A sharp gradient in snowfall totals is depicted as well toward the bay. Areas east of I-95 may struggle to reach 1 inch. A few in here have been pessimistic about their chances of receiving over an inch. It has merit, but that is just climo. Nothing much you can do. Final forecast is 1-3 " for inside the beltway(s), Alexandria, Arlington, and southwest of DC. 2-4" for areas north of the Potomac in MD, WV Panhandle, and northern neck of VA. 2-5" for areas north of I-70 stretching from Hagerstown to northern Harford County near Jarretsville. Best chance for the higher end is Parrs Ridge, MD line crew on a triangle of Emmitsburg/Mt Airy/Jarretsville.

Laytonsville is in a good spot for this storm. 2-4" is a pretty solid bet for the area. Gburg and northern MoCo will be 2-4" in general. Potential max of 3-5" up near Damascus/Mount Airy line along 27

That reminds me, how did your Fabio costume turn out this past Halloween?

The one thing with this storm is that when the precip moves into the area, it'll come in hot and heavy. First precip may start as rain for some (Mainly DC south and east), but as precip intensifies, we'll see sufficient wet bulbing with boundary layer temps falling quickly below freezing. Lift during the afternoon will be stout with H7 VV's very impressive for a short period across NoVa through Central MD between 18-00z. H7 wind field indicates a finger of 50-55 kts out of the southwest across north-central VA sliding east through MD and the Delmarva. This is some prolific moisture enhancement right near the DGZ in tandem with the strong lift focused overhead. This is why models, despite showing precip only 4-8 hrs max, showing 2-4" now across the region. There will be embedded banding structures within the main QPF shield, adding to the localized precip max we typically see with these types of setups. I don't see stickage to pavement being a problem almost anywhere (Maybe DC at the start). This should be a wintery scene over the area. Look forward to living vicariously