MillvilleWx

COD Meteorology is good. Highly recommend RadarScope if you don't have it. It's my fav radar for mobile. For PC, the best free one for me is COD. The best pay are GR Analyst and WeatherTap

Thanks for the feedback guys. It was definitely a tough forecast to nail down. There wasn’t a classic phase of the streams that can make things a little easier to track in traditional Miller A events. This was a hybrid with a further north close off at 7H and that really hurt the chances for a bigger storm, along with the boundary layer warmth. The HREF is amazing and it’s now got 3 storms I’ve used it for nailed down inside 24 hrs. I think that’s something to monitor for down the road. I’ll be a little more cautious with these kinds of setups for now on. You live and learn. It was fun to track. Wish I could’ve been up during normal people hrs, but what can you do lol .

Definitely learned some things with this storm. I tried to be even keeled, but once again, I got bit some on the warm air intrusion in the boundary layer. I wrote a tweet thread about it. My estimates were still okay, for the most part. My high ends needed to be trimmed some out west. I’m glad almost everyone in here got some snow though. I certainly miss it and being back home for these events. .

The proverbial Atlantic fire hose. A tradition unlike any other

Binghamton on the last hourly measurement has surpassed the amount of precipitation MAF has had since July 1st in under 6 hrs, with snow.......lol

Thanks Rich! I've been busy with shift work. Lot of evening shifts and now mids (Last one tonight though so pretty stoked!). I'll be stopping in more this winter season. Wife and I taking it conservative with Covid since she's really high risk due to a plethora of heart issues (Is literally a walking miracle). Once we get vaccinated, we're gonna do some serious travel second half of next year. Hopefully this winter can deliver some more memorable events. I'll be checking in more since this is my fav time of year Hope all is well with you and the family, as well as everyone on the boards. Now, let's get this snow!

LOL

Wow. That yard stick was made for those moments. Congrats man. Long overdue for you up in those parts

3-4"/hr being reported in that band over northern PA to Binghamton. 2-3' is a lock at this point for that area.

Evening y'all! Hope everyone enjoyed the snow. I missed all the action today with my last mid tonight and struggling to sleep for part of the day. I hope the snow can stick around and provide everyone with a white Christmas. I noticed the mix got as far north as the Nam Nest entailed, which sucks, cuz that cut on the totals. But, I'm sure many in here will take the snow that fell after last years debacle. Look forward to gazing through through the thread for pics and living vicariously. Have a great night y'all!

Evening y’all. After fighting for good sleep for 2 hrs earlier today, I managed to finally pass out until my alarm went off at 930. Time to get ready for one final mid shift. In the meantime, I hope everyone in here got to cash in on some snow today. I haven’t looked at anything, so I have a lot of catching up to do. I’ll be checking in off and on tonight when I got time. Enjoy the winter weather [emoji3587] .

Guys. The radar looks exactly like what was planned if anyone had any doubts. There was supposed to be limited QG Vector convergence until between 12-15z, then things will begin blossoming quickly heading north. By 18z, there should be a formidable slug and by 21z, it’ll be a wall of precip. Heading to bed. One more mid left. Good luck to all. I hope to wake up to obs of SN+, ripping fatties, and puking snow. Have fun! .

Understand wholeheartedly

I think he meant dew point of 16 and put 61. So, looks like you guys will at 425% RH. Might be a little high. Saturation to the Ionosphere lol

Dang. I think we might lose you all in Columbia today to liquification Good luck @WxUSAF @Scraff @osfan24

Anywhere here. Lewisburg is probably where I would setup. I see them 20-24" with up to 30" possible

I'm gonna say it now. Someone north of I-70 between 20-00z is gonna see some absolutely insane snowfall. The 85H frontogen is beyond incredible for that area during that timeframe. This reminds me of some of the surprise overperformers in recent past with front end thumps.

They should absolutely. This is a very good setup for MDT on north. I see 14-22" with local to 25" for you up there

The HRRR has been consistent with the northern tier getting absolutely destroyed for several hrs today between 17-21z. Here's an example regional based sounding across the northern areas. This is a great way to get WSW criteria snow before any issues of mixing.

That's the thing that gives me pause. WAA events tend to overperform on the front end, but they also tend to blast further north and west and hold sleet sigs longer for some. I'm still skeptical of the breach of the 81 corridor with it, but it's certainly possible. Meanwhile, HRRR coming in aggressive still with the initial WAA surge lol. What a crazy run of models we've had last 48 hrs. It is 2020. Only fitting. Nothing is easy in the Mid Atlantic

They are actually pretty solid overall, but the issue becomes the dynamic nature of these types of events are complex and little deviations from run to run can have influences on everything from SLP strength/placement, height patterns, and that will have a feedback on mesoscale determination. That's why globals are good for upper level pattern recognition and overall schema of of the aforementioned characteristics, but the short term guidance will be finer in the smaller details in shorter time frames, or at least they should be, and a lot depends on initialization and parameterization of the specific model. They also have their biases and that's where trends and utilizing dprog/dt have benefits. Ensembles are meant to smooth means and give a broader scope of a pattern incoming, but they will absolutely miss some of the nitty gritty details that a full deterministic will see. It's all about using everything together and using blends with analysis of current and past obs to delineate what models are having better handle of a pattern progression in both the synoptic and unfolding mesoscale. That's where people at WPC come into play and assist WFO's for forecasts. They see WAY more guidance and data than we do because we don't have time for all that with other duties on a local scale.

For me, it really depends on the setup. The HRRR does well with 12hr and in and sort of loses some integrity outside that, but I have seen it do well at leads. Typically it does well with mesoscale temp climates inside 8 hrs, especially when it comes to WAA or CAA patterns. This is at least true for west TX. I remember it was unbelievable for one of our snow storms back into the mid 2010's. It was nailing banding structures that other models were struggling with. I was to say it did excellent for 2016 too with banding placement and was solid in the total precip department. It is good with changeover periods too within that 12 hr window. Outside of that, I like the Nam Nest for the mesoscale and short term trends. That's why I'm a little perplexed now given the sharp shift in the 7H and 85H moisture fields which became pretty paltry for most of the sub. The weakened low obviously had impacts on the low level frontogen (850mb) and at 700mb, so that probably had some play. There's a decent PWAT increase on many of the models, so it could be a hiccup, but this would be a bad time for it to sniff something out this close in that would ruin forecasts for many. Hell, it would zap some potential for eastern PA too. Want to see if HRRR continues the course because it's been consistent so far with little deviation in precip structure and increased 850-700mb frontogen placement along and north of I-70. That is fairly textbook too.

@psuhoffman Good to see the Nest coming in with its worst run of the whole storm so far. That was pretty ugly. Lower precip, blasts the boundary layer easterlies to the Alleghany front, and then misses any wrap around love on the back end. Good lord, I hope that's wrong for everyone.

It stopped for Jimmy's Seafood