MillvilleWx

You go to bed after a mid and wake up to jubilation, mixed with temperament, sprinkled with DT lashing and Ji concerned despite incredibly solid model runs. The GFS is on an island with regards to intensity compared to the other “Good” globals. Nature is healing .

I told you to wear shoes

06z GFS much nicer run compared to 00z. It even has a chance at some appetizer snow for Monday. Rain verbatim, but the idea that precip gets much farther north is a big shift

One of the biggest differences I see from the 12z to the 00z of the ECMWF is the low level warm intrusion from the low tucked closer to the coast in tandem with a stronger surface ridge to the north. 925mb wind field is out of the east for several hrs at 50+kts extending inland to the 81 corridor. This is a dominant warm nose causing the increase in temps at the surface and within the lower confines of the boundary layer. Anytime you get an anomalous u-vector wind without a strong antecedent airmass in place, it would cause issues with p-type extending very far inland. It's a key difference between the two runs and say something compared to the GEM. The UL progression screams big storm at minimum as 5H evolution shows a negatively tilted trough cutting through Tennessee and immediate height falls downstream, along with large region of diffluence ahead of the s/w trough. A slightly stronger area of confluence would help considerably for a more widespread snowfall for the sub-forum, but any type of evolving system will have its boundary aligned SW/NE in a developing storm like this. This is why I relayed that as a bet, I would think the fall line will once again be the point of interest with some degree of movement to the west, pending both the amplitude of the trough and confluent area as storm approaches. Right now, I think the elevated areas west of 95 would be the target chance with Rt15 on west probably in the best spot right now. Won't take much though to get everyone potentially in the game. As things go, I'm happy to see the vigor of the s/w trough still being modeled, which is the ingredient to watch if we want any storm at all.

Agreed. I meant to say GDPS (GEM) for my previous post, so I'll have to make that correction. The GEFS def showed more promise than the OP, so that's actually pretty nice to see. This is the time frame where ensembles I think can earn their stripes more than OP. Leaves window open on what could happen with a smoother mean. The trend is in the right direction right now. Only 20 more runs to go! lol If I was a betting man, I would bet on a storm for someone in here. Most likely the NW of 95 crew, but I wouldn't discount the eastern crew either.

The 5H depiction on the GDPS is more indicative of a snow event compared to the GFS as the wave is stronger with a neg-neutral tilt as it traverses the Tennessee Valley. GFS is a bit more flat and pos-neutral tilt in the same time frame. Still a ways out, but the setup is there for a modest event for the Mid Atlantic. I'll be keeping tabs through the next several days while I'm on mid shifts. I like seeing the high over Quebec and weak blocking in the northern latitudes. Keep those in play, and it'll be about timing of the disturbance. A little more amplitude in the trough will pay dividends.

I too use the 48 hr HRRR for all my short term forecasts. In a totally unrelated story, I might be looking for a new job soon /j

Shouldn't "Ji complains" just be a Free Space?

That is gut wrenching. I am so sorry

I look forward to the next potential snow threat for the area. Been itching to talk more synoptic and winter fun. Cold and dry down here right now is no fun.

Man.... you too?

BWI: 5" DCA: 2" IAD: 8" RIC: 7" Tiebreaker SBY: 4"

Happy Thanksgiving to all my weather lovers, snow hounds, and severe weenies. I hope you're all enjoying a healthy and happy Holiday full of turkey and aged stout

I wouldn't even feel bad if that was a thing. Dude should be fired immediately too

I'd fly home for that

It even gives me snow. I'll try to throw it your way

At this rate, the whole herd immunity strategy is going to take shape despite it being an absolutely abysmal idea. There has never been a true herd immunity for any communicable disease in modern history, and for good reason. Traditional coronaviruses are more benign in nature and do not have ARDS tendencies, despite having 40-60% genome similarities to the two main SARS viruses. This one was particularly more lethal due to its high transmission potential and ability to bind to the ACE2 receptor. The only saving grace for SARS-CoV2 is it doesn't have the same mutation rates as influenza viruses due to lack of antigenic drift tendencies that aid flu virus production. We'll lose over 450k people in a year at the current rate, which will be ~75% of the total population lost in the Great Influenza, prior to modern medicine. If we didn't have the tools we have now, it would be the worst epidemic in history for the US (At least with proper numerical data to process. Yellow fever and small pox in the early days of the US and colonial period may have a say on that considering how many natives died from it). My wife is pretty high risk for Covid and any other respiratory illnesses due to her heart conditions (Born with a rare congenital heart defect called Total Pulmonary Venus Return). She also has restrictive cardiomyopathy and prone to atrial flutter from her naturally weak heart. At this point, have to be super conservative to prevent her from catching it. Soon as we can get a vax, we are taking it. Hope everyone here can stay safe. Hope there's some lake effect to be had in the future. I'll be living vicariously through y'all from my dirt here in West TX. Cheers y'all

This is super common for *checks notes* November..... lol In a year of crazy weather, the hits keep on coming. Enjoy the rain. Wish we could get some of that over here, but every shortwave cuts to the north and all lift is over AMA. We are hung out to dry...literally. Oof

It blows my mind that my area already saw an ice storm this year. Earliest winter event on record, along with the earliest measured snowfall at KMAF ever. As it would have it, there's no fall or winter to be seen for the foreseeable future haha. Oh man, this place is something else. Send me some fall y'all!

Don't even get me started on this play calling by Roman. He's calling plays like we have Seattle or KC's WR corp and we have nothing even remotely close. Idk what he's trying to prove. Lamar and the RB's should be pounding teams into submission with the run game and hitting the PA pass to keep defenses honest. Also, zero imagination. No flea flickers, no clear outs with Brown/Duverney, and no jet sweeps with our speed. I feel like I'm watching Matt Cavenaugh call the same 3 plays from his etch a sketch. Ravens did themselves a disservice not getting an elite pass rusher. Judon has and will never be that guy. Fun fact, Judon has accumulated 80% of his sacks the last 2.5 seasons off 4 games. FOUR!! He's absent basically any other time. With our secondary, if we had a consistent rush with 4, we'd be almost impossible to score 20+ against. Today I missed the game since I was prepping for mid shifts, which I'm on now. But I saw the highlights. Won the game, but we should've lost and would've against a competent offense. They dropped 2 TD's today and their line is absolutely beat up. We allowed two prayer balls, shot ourselves in the foot with offensive line penalties, and had some p*ss poor coverage in the secondary against B rate receivers (I do like Fulgrahm though). We have a lot to work on and we better get ready, because next game is vs a very hungry and hot Steelers squad. They can ball.

The Ravens are missing a steady central portion of the line. Lots of talent and time to gel further, but they are not nearly as good as last year without Yanda. Our WR corp is weak. Outside Hollywood, we are pedestrian with regards to consistent play. Route running for most of the group needs polishing and Boykin just needs to leave. The man is a bust and it's time to admit it. Give Duverney the opportunity and use both he and Brown's speed to open up the edges for guys like Snead, our TE's, and Dobbins. We desperately need a polished WR like a Boldin from 2010-2012. Someone we can rely on to be physical and catch the big plays. Brown is a WR2 right now, but when used properly, he can be a WR1 like a Tyreek Hill. But KC has a solid compliment for him on the opposite side, so it plays in their favor. We do not, and it's biting us. Defensively, we are desperately missing a premier pass rusher. The Ravens can blitz and cause mayhem, but against teams like KC and upper echelon passing corps, they can't do that and expect to even get close to stopping them. They can exploit by using screen game and throwing into the lanes we apply the blitz. Leaving voids where they can make plays. A pass rush that can make it to the QB and apply pressure with 4 is how you beat a KC and how you can beat a Tennessee. I see us having a tough time with Pittsburgh and losing one or both games I think is likely at this juncture. They lost one of their top LB's for the season today (Devin Bush), so that should help, but they can beat our front on the O line with just a 4 man rush. I see Ravens going 11-5 this season unless we can add some critical pieces. We will never win the Super Bowl with our current players. Not built for the stretch run. Hate to say it being a fan, but also a realist.

Is Ji okay?

Edinboro is one of the snowiest locales in PA. It is very close with the area of NW PA between Erie and Jamestown, NY. They average 150-180" of snow a year. It's a top 10 location east of the Mississippi.

I literally got 1.5" of rain the other day from a storm. That equaled all my precip from March 15th to July 1st before the rain. Now it's gonna be smoking hot with 105-110 everyday from Fri-Wed. Send help....... and ice cream

Didn't you say you always wanted a pool in your backyard? This seems more cost effective