MillvilleWx

I heard on the radio this morning that it's Shower with your Friend Day. I know what you'll be doing later today

I'm thinking 8-10:1 given the mid-level frontogen involved with the wave. The s/w is still fairly prolific on guidance right now and there's going to be significant large scale ascent from the 25H jet amplifying to the north. I think one of the things the globals are not going to pick up on is that meso banding is all but a given with the current 7H progs. The 7H fronto AND 85H fronto will actually work in your favor, so you'll have deeper boundary layer lift compared to areas north and west. They have the mid-level fronto, but eastern shore will likely cash on both, which is why I like your spot, Easton, Kent Island, down to Cambridge as the local jack with central DE as another good spot pending the northern latitude push of the surface low along the coast. I'm rooting for you!

I see exactly what you mean. It's even more pronounced at hour 9. Storm cancel?

A LITERAL line of storms in Alabama/Mississippi right now. I'm actually stunned

I almost feel like the ICON is not bad inside 48 hrs looking back on the recent storms, but outside 48 it struggles mightily and can be prone to doing weird things with the surface.

I'll tell you...Easton, MD is looking like a prime spot for this one right now. That and Kent and Arrows area in Queen Anne's. I really hope @CAPE gets crushed someway, somehow.

This is NSFW right here

Trough takes on a negative tilt about 3 hrs before the NAM parent. The Nest basically looked like a beefed up GFS at 5H. I'd be damn happy with that run for anyone in here.

Same man. Same! Give me the snow and I'll go enjoy every damn flake that falls.

The 7H frontogen is just stupid and it's likely to be the case with a storm like this. I said it before in my winded post earlier, but 1-2"/hr rates are 100% possible if this vort remains as prolific as it shows.

Hey @stormtracker Here's the sounding for DC at the end of the Nam Nest run. This is pretty damn gaudy if you ask me. Paste bomb with massive aggregates likely in that sounding.

Agreed. The trend to the SE was really a small blip but there was positive takeaways that leave this for room to be a bigger boom compared to even the earlier runs. I'm curious to see how the 3km run finishes out.

That would be a beautiful Sunday morning for the District. Grab a cup of coffee or favorite morning beverage, a bagel sandwich, and walk around the mall during the height. Gonna be the picturesque kind of snow too that clings to everything

I'll say this @CAPE ain't gonna be complaining at all about this run. Woof

It's funny you say that because I was literally just looking at the 25H panels and the jet placement is actually little better than previous runs. The strength is a touch lower than 18z, but further back, so wouldn't be surprised if this still gets the job done for areas east of US15.

NAM has more a look comparable to 12z. 18z was more amped. This was not as intense, but very similar to 12z. Will still get the job done, but a bit SE of 18z imo

This!! And they can sneak up out of no where too as long as you have a lot of little shortwaves rippling in the flow. Squalls and ice are my two biggest things to look out for during major cold outbreaks.

I personally am not a fan of SREF's outside an envelope of potential max and min and that's about it. A lot of times, it guides the 5th and 95th percentiles, so you have a clue as to what is the most extreme result. Hi-res is so prone to minute shifts in guidance that SREF's can exacerbate and/or waver from run to run, so they really are only prudent inside 48 hrs, at least imo. HREF is the newest ensemble blend of hi-res guidance and it does a better job overall and can pick out trends, but it realllllllly struggles with ULL's and intense baroclinicity. It did pick out the potential for the banding in Binghamton with the mega bomb up there, so it's not all for naught. I think there will be more investment in hi-res ensembles down the pike, but we have a major step in Fv3 integration the next 3-4 years, so it's probably more of a side project. Someone who works directly with NWP will have more info on that.

The frame work for the cold spell is there, but just has to evolve. We were several days out from any cold a week ago, but now it's inside 5 days for the polar plunge to begin taking shape. There's a lot of consistency on guidance with the result of cold but 5 days ago was not. There was a lot of scenarios for positioning of the PV and the lobes of vorticity rotating down out of Canada. Now we have less variation for the evolution within a 5 day envelope. The teleconnection pattern screams major cold as well with increasing heights over the pole to open the door for cross-polar flow into NA. Once the cold comes in, there's nothing really going to stop it from spilling. It's all about timing the flood gates at this point.

I know everyone here is very interested in mainly the snow chances for the extended, but I cannot understate how insane this cold signature is for the entire CONUS on guidance right now. This would rival some of the top cold outbreaks of all time. Even the ensembles are hinting at some historic level cold over the country. There will be lots of squall potential in this setup too with that Valentines Day period that @Eskimo Joe brought up above my post as the most aggressive time frame for it. Globals will not see that squall potential until it's within short range either. Bundle up

These are some of my favorite types of events when they materialize. They are quick hitting, but they come in like a banshee and can just dump for 6-10 hrs and scoot on out. I was looking at PWAT Anomalies for the time frame and they jump to 140-180%, or ~1 StDev above normal for the entire area. Classic for a solid high level advisory to WSW type event. Nothing over the top, but above the premise for a lower end event. Keep the 5H progression tilting negative and it'll be a very white Sunday for everyone.

I just peeked over my shoulder to see if John is watching me or something. Eerie timing man on this post right before what I just posted

It's pretty subtle on the 5H plot, but you can see it a little better on the 2PVU panels where there is a bit of a "fanning" signature on the lead side of the shortwave trough as it pivots through the Tennessee valley. The amplifying 250mb trough with jet core strengthening to the north is also a classic sign of diffluence developing under the right entrance region of the jet. Hope this helps!

It is now in my phone under: National Restaurants to Visit. I have it organized by state and everything. Thank you!