MillvilleWx

Hey y'all. Just checking in. Hope everyone is safe back home. My wife and I are good out here in west TX. Not too much of a problem out here thanks to lower pop density. It is here though. My wife, who is a very rare congenital heart survivor and a walking statistic is a very high risk for this thing, so we are taking it easy and doing all the necessary precautions. Hopefully no one catches this thing. I know 2 people that died and 7 people who have had it in general. It's not fun. My coworkers father has it in FL. He's not doing well, but still not experiencing the shortness of breath yet. Hopefully he can push through. Fever going on day 6. This thing is brutal for certain people. Anyway, just wanted to check in and pass along how we're doing. Hopefully we can get to some semblance of normalcy soon. Have a great weekend y'all!

So sorry for your loss @nj2va. Pets are 100% family and they hurt when they go. But he looked like a happy pup who was raised in a loving family. Just remember all the amazing memories.

Current deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to convey a borderline historic precip maker for west Texas across the Permian Basin, Caprock, and points east toward San Angelo/Abilene. Looking at historical statistics for MAF, the highest March daily precip was recorded on March 6th of 1970, coming in with 2.13". Current guidance may be a step below on the prospects of the daily rainfall record, but coming into second all-time for a date (1.30" is #2), is well within reason. Progs are showing around 2-3 sigma above normal PWAT's within a broad zone of enhanced H7 VV's under the difluent area of the UL cruising south across the Lower Trans-Pecos. A broad shield of 1.5-3" of rain is well within reason for the setup along much of I-20 from Van Horn to Sweetwater (at least). Severe potential is slightly higher than normal given the steep mid-level LR's and area of shear down stream of the ULL on Tuesday. I think one hindrance will be the shallow cool airmass ahead of the disturbance, limiting the thermodynamic environment available for a more pronounced severe threat. Over toward the Rio Grande from Del Rio into northern Hill Country, a little more pronounced area of destabilization is probable, leading to an enhancement of the severe potential. It's quite the setup.

Unreal. I would LOVE to catch a LES event up there during a major setup. I'd be in heaven. Drove through Watertown before. Beautiful area and people are very friendly and resilient given the conditions up there during the winter.

Hey y'all. Just stopping in to say hey and how about them Terps?!!! Been a horrible winter back home, so I haven't had time to pop in too often, unfortunately. It's been nuts life wise out this way. Had a great Disney trip in January, long string of work, 8" of snow in early February, then the coup de grace was my wife having a serious fall at work 2 Saturdays ago requiring reconstructive surgery on her ankle. Right now, my house is a one man show and I'm hanging in there. She'll be recovering for multiple months, but surgery was a success. A full recovery will occur by mid-late May. Hoping to be back home for a time this summer, so perhaps a meet up is in order if I can square away a concrete date. Hope all is well back east. Go Terps, Go O's, Go Nat's, Go Caps (Sorry @yoda )

This was just north of your point in the northern Tug. Lowville/Redfield are going to get smashed. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.77064514160156&lat=43.800836406012195#.XlcTNqjYouU

Guess who issued his first ever Blizzard Warning in the NWS?

If anyone wants to see snow soon, you might be able to come visit my area or the central panhandle. Looks like something appetizing could be brewing for late-Tuesday into Wednesday. Pretty stoked. .

I think you'll get two of those. If he dips into the Chianti for dinner one Friday, you have a shot at all 3.

If you're playing JB bingo, that's still just the Free Space. Sorry man

That was a positive takeaway for the run, but issue becomes when the winds shift west/northwest, down-sloping takes over and it all dries up quick. If that S/S vort can tilt negative or pass further to the northwest, more precip can be thrown back for the inevitable cutoff.

The separation of energy on this run is still too far apart for the MA. By the time the N/S vort catches up with the S/S vort, the phasing energy is too far to the east. The snow we see breaking out over WV is from strong PVA on the base of the trough coupled with upslope flow over the higher terrain. Wind direction shifts to the NW across the Piedmont as N/S finally makes its run at the S/S, but that provides a down-slope component locally, drying out the precip shield on the western side. In order for the area to be in game with the storm, you need the S/S vort to lag by 6-12 hrs, or for the N/S to speed up and promote phasing while the S/S energy pivots through western NC. It's all just too late for it impact the MA, and even most of the EC for that matter. Not until the Maritimes do you see the anchor set up and start pulling back to the NW. LI, Cape Cod, and Down-east Maine the only true beneficiaries.

Knowing the luck this year, probably phase 5. Blocking will be rocking though in April .

Has anyone tried turning the weather off and back on again? .

I heard Boma was good. Will have to give that a go next time we’re there. Tony’s in MK was actually our favorite meal. Homemade Italian that tastes like something a Nona would make. Absolutely outstanding. Pizza was on point. Wife have the gnocchi. She gobbled the whole thing. Finished meal with gelato for me and cannoli’s for my wife. To die for. Great last meal for the trip. .

I actually don’t chase severe much. I chase winter storms. So if I had to chose a ride, probably the Bus ride back to the resort. [emoji1] .

The rides you mentioned are all great. The best ride in the whole resort is the new Pandora ride. Absolutely incredible. It’s a 4-D experience. We went on it twice thanks to Fast Pass +. If it wasn’t for that, the wait times are always over 2-3 hrs. Make sure to catch some shows as well PSU!! And for food; Chef Mickey (Disney Contemporary Resport), Tony’s (Magic Kingdom. Get the pizza!!), Les Chef de France (Epcot), and Friar’s Nook (Magic Kingdom. Excellent park food). .

It's a blast. Let me know if you want any tips or list of rides/places to eat. We had a great experience and rode so many great rides.

Wife and I had an amazing experience at Disney over the past week. It was seriously one of the best vacations ever. Sucks to return and see the pattern is still stuck in a rut. Here’s a picture of me having a little too much fun at my wife’s expense to brighten your day [emoji1] .

Wish I could look at thermals, but just given the algorithm in place and the surface temps, looks like a quick burst of snow in the beginning, then a nasty ice storm west of the Fall line. East of the fall line is a minor event with some snowfall, short period of ice, then ice cold rain. This is a verbatim take, and it's the ICON. I'll wait for the better models and withstand judgement.

I remember an event back in 2015 after we had a long stretch of sub freezing days at Millersville, we had a touch of snow to sleet and then ZR. We actually had 0.1” accretion while temps hovered between 32-34F. It was incredible to see ice build up on the ground above freezing. There’s a lot to ZR and the physical process of ice. It’s actually quite fascinating. .

It’s certainly not as efficient, but it can still be ugly when the antecedent conditions leading in are pretty cold. A lot of the surfaces will remain solidly below freezing despite air temp being at freezing. Urban areas will have a harder time with accretion, but out to the north and west, it’s probably closer to 30 and really ugly. .

100% mashed potatoes. Almost back breaking snow trying to shovel the next morning. I had ~20" NW of 95. I was in the heart of that band for hours. We hit 4"/hr between 115-215AM that night. Thundersnow woke up my dad, who then woke me up, which lead to us staying up all night watching and taking measurements. Great father and son moment. What a great memory. Edit: Sorry for going a bit off topic. Those analogs are very much conducive for wintry weather. Ridge over the top with mean trough in the east, EPO ridge in place, and low anomalies where the Aleutian low is parked. There's also a hint of low anomalies off the Pac/Baja coast. Likely some result of southern stream influence judging by the buckling heights out there.

Man, there's a few good storms in there. One of my all time favorite, extremely underrated storms was 2/9/2006. Got absolutely buried by a crazy deformation axis that extended from NoVa to just north of NYC. The reason people actually remember that storm was due to thunder snow in the band, and the fact it warmed up so fast after the storm exited. I remember it was in the 40's before Noon just north of Baltimore. Crazy, but some of the greatest rates I've ever seen.

Lamar made some decent outside throws last night, but he had some rough ones mixed in. I'm still mad at Roberts dropping what would've been an easy TD with his speed. Bottom line is the whole offense didn't show up, coaching was terrible for the first time in a while, and it all culminated into a bad loss at literally the worst time. I have confidence we can work on some issues and play well next year. We absolutely need an edge pass rusher, one or two more WR's with outside threats that can catch, and more OL at G. More DB's doesn't hurt either. But pass rush and WR are a MUST.