MillvilleWx

Soft hail are basically snow pellets. It's super-cooled water droplets that coalesce and cover a snowflake. The ones from this event accompanied the insanely large flakes that dumped over the region. Graupel is soft hail. It's pretty cool when you look at it closely. It's basically a rimed over snowflake.

Gotcha. Yes, that corridor along I-95 north of Samford got absolutely blitzed. 40" of snow and 6"/hr rates were reported. I did a case study on that in college for my radar class. It was fascinating. There were reports of soft hail in that band that set up. Some of the greatest frontogenesis you will ever see in a storm bar none.

Where did you chase that storm? I was in Waltham, Mass for that one. 31.5” and 6-8’ drifts later, still one of the best weather experiences of my life. .

Idk about that Pees part, but agreed lol .

Good win. Hard fought. We have to get a better pass rush man. Offense certainly had another gear .

It sure hasn’t been boring! I kind of like the smash mouth style. Wear down defenses. Old school Ravens with more dynamic .

That my friend would never happen in a million years lol. I’ll be the speck of purple in a sea of silver lol .

I'm up in the air on what we should do if Flacco can't play. I wouldn't mind seeing Lamar out there as the starter, but I'm not sure how that will go. Cincy is reeling and we NEED to win. I like RG3 with a better chance to win, but I wouldn't mind seeing Lamar.

That was heartbreaking. All that and missed the wide open receiver for the win. He was rolling and had to go across body, so it wasn't a straight overthrow, but you gotta hit that guy. Tough loss. Played hard though. Just the fact they had a chance is astounding.

To say this storm is impressive is an understatement. Keep piling it up guys. I love seeing everyone in the forum cashing in on the goods .

Man, this is really turning into a nice event for many, including those near 95. I was intrigued by the shifts models were having last night with the colder setup, but this is a reverse bust type setup thanks to how well we do with CAD. Some decent 850-700mb Frontogen setting up over VA over to WV and will be pushing northward in the next several hours. Expect a pretty solid band of heavy precip to impact the region between 9-11am with heavy snow potential for an hour or two before we start seeing mixing becoming a factor from south to north. Current progs lead to believe a solid 2-4" is possible across NoVa to Central MD and the 81 corridor. Sleet will cut back the snow potential from south to north with areas near the Mason Dixon and NW staying snow the longest, thus flirting with potential for WSW criteria accumulation. Sleet will eventually mix all the way to the Allegheny front for a time before the ULL swings east and we see top-down colder air mixing through the column. Question is, does the best PVA stay to the north, or can we get a solid lobe of vorticity to provide enough lift to generate a line of snow to round out things across the region. The best suspects for that one will be our northern crew, but we've already had a nice surprise with this one, what's another positive to tack on to this system. Glad y'all are enjoying the snow! Go out and enjoy if you can

Is there any snow though?

If we’re both in town, can I join the fun? .

Shreveport on the board already. Just enough to create a snowboy, but shy of becoming a full man.

I posted my thoughts briefly in the banter thread yesterday after I commented on something else. The trends for snow have back-peddled since I posted, but the threat of majority frozen is still in play for areas NW of 95 and out to I-81. Front end thump will need to arrive a little sooner than currently modeled, which is certainly possible with the WAA regime being forecast, but will ultimately not be able to overcome the warm nose bulging into the region in wake of the screaming H85 southeasterly winds aloft. Isothermal environment may hold firm a little longer for places along and west of the Blue Ridge, leading to a little longer chance of snow, but even they will see a flip to sleet and ZR as the warm nose pushes out to the Allegheny Front. This is a scenario where someone like Losetoa could hang on to snow the longest while most flip to sleet/zr due to his farther north and west location. After the flip, the question becomes, how firmly entrenched is the sub-freezing airmass at the surface? It does look like sleet signature gets eroded toward the late morning with most of the area switching to rain by noon, but the typical spots prone to longer period of CAD will be susceptible to maintaining an icy period into the PM before any transition takes shape. Most notably, areas along the Mason Dixon and the 81 corridor into the WV Panhandle will be the targets for that outcome. If I had to do a totals outlook, 1.5-4" out toward the 81 corridor and up into the Mason Dixon by Northern Carroll before a full flip to IP/ZR. This area may also never fully transition to rain, which would still argue for a Warning issued, or at least an Advisory with opportunity for an upgrade. Northern MoCo, Western Howard, South-Central Carroll, Hereford Zone in Baltimore, and Frederick County could see 1" before the flip with majority precip falling as IP/ZR before a full transition to rain by the PM. Around 95 and the major cities, a short period of snowfall will quickly transition to IP/ZR before a flip to straight rain before noon tomorrow, especially inside the beltway. Regardless of what happens, it's mid-November and the signal for a storm is pretty phenomenal for this time of year. The fact we can talk about frozen precip early is pretty rare, so enjoy the slop while you can. I'll be living vicariously by you guys as I enjoy my 55 and sun out here in West Texas.

It's good practice to be in the fetal position in November. Work out those quads for later in the season

Hey man. Texas is great. Getting used to Midland life. Wife and I work a lot, but we go out and explore when we can. It’s a working town where money can be had. We have fun outside the town with day trips and what not. Job is fantastic. I couldn’t be happier to be working for NWS and my office especially. Currently in the middle of Radar training with certification end of February in Norman. I’ll actually be back in the area for 10-11 days in mid to late January. Hoping to see a monster snow storm while I’m back there. I will be hoping for the best lol .

I’m going to be totally honest, whatever Mag said in his post, I agree with 100%. Thing I’m interested in is the front end precip arriving early with the high in a good position to maximize the snowfall before any flip in the Sus Valley. We’ve seen this before back in the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. This has a similar feel. Wouldn’t be surprised if areas hung on to snow longer than expected, thus grabbing an inch or two more than forecast. Great event for mid November no matter the final outcome. .

Who’s up for some snow around here? [emoji6] .

This is a bit early in the season for snow out here, especially some of the totals up in the Panhandle near Amarillo. A nice stripe of 8-10” actually fell to the west and northwest of Amarillo proper. We had flurries all day yesterday before sunset, but nothing stuck. Was frigid though. High plains do well with sustaining cold air advection with little moderation. Looks like some fun back home. First call would be Warning criteria snow along 81 with sleet mix ending. Closer to 95, start to see that warm layer a bit more evident, so some snow to start, but once the nose pokes in, expect a change to sleet and then even some rain along 95. Interesting setup west of fall line where the thermal environment may stubbornly hang on to frozen longer than what models are seeing, even potentially for duration of event. IP I think will be the main ptype for areas like Howard/Frederick/Northern MoCo/North and West Baltimore Co. I have not looked at qpf or anything, so I don’t know specific totals. Just thermal environment and length of precip time. No matter the case, this quite the event incoming for the Mid Atlantic for November. I’ll be watching from the sidelines. Enjoy y’all!! .

Looks like snow is looking more and more likely just to my north in our northern CWA and up to Lubbock/Amarillo for late Sunday night into Monday morning. Looks like I may be doing a little chase in the Panhandle. As for the Subforum, the trough pattern evolution once east of the Rockies has been downright gaudy for storm genesis along the eastern seaboard. If this pattern can hold for a long time, could be an interesting winter. Only time will tell. Plenty of cold air in Canada. Need to lay a pack early in order to refrain from moderation. It's getting to the fun time of year ladies and gentlemen.

I didn't know DT got into computer hacking. Interesting

BWI: 27.4 DCA: 21.1 IAD: 29.5 RIC: 15.0 Tiebreaker (SBY): 8.7

I don't eat sweets very much at all, but Starbursts Jelly beans are one of the greatest candy innovations in the history of forever. Right on!

Complete agreement with everything. Smith killed himself with the off the field issues and he is hurt more often than not, so I wouldn't be hurt watching him go. This defense is an enigma. I actually never know what to expect and today was the Jekel to previous weeks Hyde. The problem on this defense is absolutely no one has a killer instinct in the secondary. NO ONE!! People used to fear our defense and going down the field on us. Now, it's too easy and it kills us every week we aren't getting pressure. As for our offense, we need wholesale changes with many guys needing to be replaced on the line. Brown/Stanley/Yanda are fine. Our center and LG are awful. I'm sorry. It's just so disheartening to watch most weeks. Lines collapsing in on Flacco constantly. Then Flacco himself just making bonehead mistakes forcing the ball. I'm tired of it. And sadly, I'm in total agreement on Jackson. Great athleticism, strong runner, horrible pass thrower. We're going to be stuck with him though for at least a few more years. Hopefully he can find something and turn into a Russell Wilson lite. I'll take that over what's going on right now. Oh, if I have to watch another 2+ yard loss on a pitch play, I will lose it. We are 0 for 124 since 1999 on freakin pitch plays. I'm going to be in town next weekend. Caps game with my dad and then the plan was to go to Ravens game. I might refrain from spending that kind of money, but still watching with some friends I haven't seen in a while.