MillvilleWx

You better have those sheets ironed for when I come to town. If I don't see 20" of snow during my time back, I'm gonna tell people that you don't work and play well with others

He's the anti snokojokma or snokone or whatever the heck s/he name is

Cannot show the graphic because it's in house only, but WPC Super Ensemble has around 6" mean for snow at DCA for the event, which is right in line with a lot of numerical model guidance. When you remove the 3 highest and lowest outliers, it's right at 6" still, so the prospects for warning level snowfall is above average for the DC metro. IAD is running a mean of around 6.3" which is still in line with WSW criteria. BWI is at 5", so right on the borderline of WSW criteria, but longevity of snowfall to achieve the amount will likely place BWI on the outside looking in for an initial WSW, but will likely maintain advisory and adjust up if necessary. Other areas of interest and mean snowfall forecast are as followed: OKV: 6.4" MRB: 5.4" FDK: 5" HGR: 4.3" APG: 3.7" OPL: 7.3" EZF: 7.4" CHO: 7.2" SHD: 8.2" NHK: 6.3" SBY: 4.1" GED: 5.3"

Agreed! I know exactly where you're located. You might be right on that mix line, but sometimes you gotta smell the mix to get the heavy snow. It might be a bit pasty over there too, so it'll be a sweet landscape when all said and done.

Everyone in here ready for some snow? My parents live in Southern Sussex county in DE. My dad and I agree 2-4” in Millville is probably a good call with potential for more. Rt 50 probably the mix/snow dividing line. North of there should see 3-6” easy. .

I think 2-4” is probably a good call for your area. I know that area well since I lived there for 19 years. It’s a sneaky good spot for storms and banding in Eastern Baltimore Co .

NAM still looks okay but it certainly having issues with the surface low along the coast. Been very jumpy from run to run. Probably best to hedge away from using them in order to figure out that aspect of the forecast. As far as WAA snows look, still looks good for the entire area with nothing really changing at this point. Tight northern cutoff in the works, but somewhere near the cutoff there will likely be a convergence zone that develops and leads to some of the better snow ratios and prime dendritic growth. Happened with the Dec storm and areas like 40-50 miles south of DC/NoVa got hit good. We shall see. Heading to bed since I gotta be up and leaving in 7.5 hours. Have a great night! .

Almost West Texas! Lol. Just a bit outside the stereotypical dividing line. Once into San Angelo’s CWA and not Midland/Odessa, you are now leaving West Texas. Only kidding with you .

There will likely be a primary “deathband” that sets up someone in the areas you mentioned and goes to town. This is a perfect setup for it. A nice area of low level convergence is likely in the setup. The question is where. Not until gametime when that’ll be solved. .

Basically Rt 50 on north should stay snow. Some mixing possible south of that, but if coastal gets rolling, then a flip to heavy snow could make up for it. It’s a fine line. I think that area is bisected in my first call forecast. .

That is definitely one to watch. That band and Parr’s Ridge can never be discounted haha .

18z Euro looks solid once again. I think it’s safe to say we are honing in on the potential here. Best chances for WSW right now probably NoVa, So MD, Northern Tidewater of Va, and Southern Eastern Shore of MD (Although that one may be a close call toward the shore). .

If you're going to chase a potential max, it's a gamble, but could be worth it. I stayed conservative in my forecast there, but boom potential is not out question pending the surface low. I would go just because I'd be at the beach and can watch a snowstorm, drink beer, and eat seafood, but that's just me haha

Thanks Katie!

Thanks guys! And lol EJ. If I was god, y'all would be getting a heck of a lot more snow. Even Ji might not complain........nah

That was a really nice Euro run to round out the 12z suite. I am interested to see if everything holds heading into tonight with the 0z guidance, but I'll have to take a look at that tomorrow morning since I have to wake up at 315 CST for work. So, for what we've all seen at our disposal, here's my first call forecast below with a short write up. Write Up So far this morning we've seen a positive short term trend with the handling of the shortwave progression through the South-Central US. The system in question was a bit more robust than previous thinking for today as we saw more rain and convection blossom across West Texas than model guidance was indicating into last night. This leads to believe the southern stream energy will be a bit better organized as it ejects eastward along with a strong southern jet influence downstream. Models have increased QPF in successive runs through the Mid Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio River Valley's in conjunction with the positive departures in the southern stream moisture field. Expect the radar to continue to expand as the current shortwave remains consolidated and motions to the east with greater upper divergence on the northern side of the energy and stronger PVA swinging through the aforementioned areas. As we enter into tomorrow, dew point depressions across the Mid Atlantic will range between 10-15 degrees by 12z given the latest model consensus. By the morning, H85 wind field begins to shift into a southerly component and weak moisture advection on the leading edge of the disturbance will initiate a slow increase in regional dew points and lowering the dew point depression back toward 8-12 degrees by 18z tomorrow. By this time, we'll begin to see the initial QPF field entering the western and southwestern VA and WV areas with precipitation shield developing on the lee side of the Apps and adjacent Allegheny front. H7 moisture advection will rise by this time and we'll begin to see radar returns poking into the Shenandoah and rapidly expanding to the northeast. The low and mid layer moisture layers will become saturated over time and flurries should begin from southwest to northeast into a greater part of the sub forum with light snow field expanding through the valley's. By late tomorrow afternoon and evening, we'll see more light and moderate returns across VA and west-central MD with accumulation beginning immediately given the cold antecedent air mass coupled with sub-freezing ground temperatures. This is where the accumulation period will begin for basically everyone except maybe the eastern side of the Bay where light snow will spread over by nightfall just given the timing. By Saturday night through Sunday morning, WAA regime will be at its peak with modest jet coupling centered over the Central Mid Atlantic and initial PVA from the shortwave moving over or just south of the region. The coupled jet dynamics and divergence generated by the shortwave will create a period of mesoscale banding structures over the area with moderate snowfall likely within areas under the developing bands. There may be some heavier bands that develop over the Shenandoah and adjacent BR due to the closer proximity to the strengthening jet max over the Tennessee Valley with placement within the left exit region of the jet. Coupled with orographic lift in the general area, snowfall could become heavy and max out with higher ratios locally given the expected lift and higher omega levels within the DGZ. Ratios will likely settle around 10-11:1 on average for everywhere south of I-70 for the WAA regime, BUT within the overall setup, expect some higher ratios at times due to the mesoscale banding structures created by the mid and low level convergence centered by the south to southeasterly low level wind field and the compression of the colder air to the north pressing with the feed from the arctic high to the north. This is why I am not ruling out a secondary max over the favored elevated areas near the PA line and local Parr's Ridge area due to the orographic element in play. Average ratio north of I-70 will run 12-15:1 through the event and will see the benefit of the local effects and the best convergence area due to the confluence position just to the north. By Sunday morning and beyond, we will have to keep our eyes on the developing coastal along the Northern reaches of OBX up to ORF as that will be what could elevate totals for some as we add a deformation type setup to the mix and enhancement QPF maximum within the northwest quadrant of the low's precip field. As of now, current baroclinic ribbon has adjusted north slightly from the past 24 hours of runs and has been hinted by some guidance, especially the newest Euro run where the NW quadrant QPF field expanded to include just east of DC proper and across the Eastern shore of MD and Southern DE and northern Tidewater of VA. These areas will have to keep an eye on the latest model trends as this may evolve into a more impactful storm with elevated stripe of snowfall totals within the best banding in the deformation shield. It is still possible to get the I-95 corridor within the western fringes of the deformation axis, which would in short play a significant role in the accumulation forecast going forward. Things we want to see going forward next 24 hours is model agreement with the placement of the low center as it evolves on the coast near ORF and the continued dual jet structure with strengthening jet trailing the H5 trough. Euro was very close to a viable solution to get a significant portion of the sub-forum in WSW criteria snowfall. Canadian has been gung-ho for quite a while, so I'm curious to see if there will be any adjustments in the precip field (drying out or staying elevated with QPF field), as well as the placement of the deformation snows on the northwest side of the surface low developing off the coast. HRDPS, NAM Nest, RAP, and if you're daring HRRR will be viable products to use starting tomorrow morning to analyze trends in synoptic scale features and more important, any mesoscale features that will undoubtedly play a significant role in total snowfall across the region. Snowfall Forecast So, with all that in mind, here are my current feelings in terms of snowfall. I will include a map with zones to outline my thoughts and boom/bust potential given the latest data. Zone 1: Havre de Grace: 1-3" Bel Air: 2-4" Baltimore County Hereford Zone: 3-5" Timonium/Towson/Western Baltimore County: 3-6" Eastern Baltimore County: 2-5" Baltimore City: 2-4" Northern Carroll: 3-7" with local highest along Parr's Ridge (Manchester/Westminster/Hampstead/Mt Airy) Southern Carroll: 3-6" Howard County: 2-6" Local maximum in Western HoCo Eastern Frederick County: 3-6" Northwest MoCo: 3-6" Zone 2: East of Bay including all MD/DE counties: 3-8" with highest totals across interior areas including Easton/Kent Co/Interior Sussex Co. 2-5" along the Atlantic shore AA County: 3-7" with max to the south South-Central MD counties, including PG Co: 3-7" Central and Southern MoCo: 3-6" NW DC: 3-6" SE DC: 3-7" Center City DC: 3-5" NoVa: 4-7" Frederick County: 3-8" with highest in Western Fdk Co and along South Mountain/Catoctins BWI: 3-6" IAD: 3-7" DCA: 2-5" Zone 3: Valley Areas with elevation below 1200': 4-8" Blue Ridge/Allegheny/Apps with elevation above 1200-2400': 5-10" Blue Ridge/Allegheny/Apps with elevation above 2400': 6-12" Zone 4: Shenandoah Valley areas: 3-7" Central Va: 3-8" with highest to the east Southern MD: 4-8" SBY to OC: 2-6" Richmond and Areas south of Dashed Line: 1-5" with higher to northwest of RIC. Mixing issues possible

My general thought hasn't really wavered at all with the setup, but I will wait for the Euro this afternoon before putting out a first call and final call early tomorrow morning. In all honesty, I really like LWX snowfall graphic, but I would add a few adjustments in terms of orographic favored areas. There is definitely boom/bust potential with this one, but I think we're beginning to see a greater boom potential compared to a bust. This shortwave was able to generate a fair amount of precip out this way and greater than most guidance.

I noticed the Canadian models in general are better with handling a CAD setup where margins of error are very small. Now, they can over-do the setup and create some discrepancy on the p-type, but they can handle the general idea right. In these types of setups, I tend to shy away from the Canadian guidance, except the HRDPS when it comes to immediate short term. That model has a solid track record with adjustments in the near term, similar to the 3km NAM and to some degree the HRRR (Rare but happens on occasion. Use HRRR at your own risk). The RAP can be good as well in the near term and actually is geared for the synoptic scale with its 13km Res.

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I felt the same way once after a very long night at college...

The numerical models are not compromised. We’ve received all the data necessary to run efficiently and the 0 and 12z RAOB recaps have actually shown fewer sites with issues which means data ingestion has been best it’s been in a while. Idk where your friend heard this, but it’s not true. .

That’s on the computer side. I got that down pat, but Tapatalk is a whole nother can of worms lol. I don’t think it’s possible from what I tried. All good though! Thanks! .

This is the reason I’m not ruling out a secondary max somewhere to the north. Preferably Parr’s Ridge area since there’s an orographic enhancement element involved and the fact it happens 90% of the time .

I used to be able to bring quotes on Tapatalk from one thread to another. Now I can’t. Anyone know a way to do that? .

I’m reposting my first call analysis from earlier. I think what I have is still okay. I might make some adjustments to max potentials and what not, but a wide spread 1-3/2-4 is still a solid call. I’ll have a more final call tomorrow and continue to analyze guidance. Also, models like the Nam Nest will need to start getting some credence by tonight’s 0z runs for short term trend purposes. Obviously, it’s not gospel, but it could outline potential mesoscale features and banding structures within the initial WAA. If you were expecting anything more than 6” across Central MD or NoVa, then you are looking at the wrong storm. If you’re along the Blue Ridge or Allegheny Front in VA or WV, you are still in game. I expect a WWA for a vast majority of the forum with maybe a WSW out near Tucker and Pocahontas Counties in WV due to elevation and maxing on orographic enhancement and mid level convergence with the southern jet streak. Edit: Sigh. I can’t repost my write up on Tapatalk.