MillvilleWx

My optometrist would be proud

This is awful to hear Rich. Hopefully you can recover quickly and get back on the right track. Caffeine is nasty when it's coming off high doses over time. Thoughts are with you man.

Here's the final result to the evolution posted above. It's just a bit cold......

The GFS is the only model that goes out into the period where any arctic outbreak would occur for east of the Mississippi, so this is only basing off deterministic. That said, the large scale cold push into the Lower 48 is initiated with weak ridge-bridging over western Canada that brings the first round of significantly colder temps with lower heights over the eastern CONUS. There's a slight reshuffle between hrs 300-324, then a more significant bridging occurs towards the end of the run, leading to a more significant blast of arctic air with origins over Siberia as Cross-Polar flow occurs. There's sub 500dm heights on the deterministic over western Ontario into Manitoba at that point, so that's the real surge and matches well with HM's Jan 20-25th peak of when the cold floods the eastern US.

Come back as C6H12O6 and really make this place lively

We need a new Long Range Mid Atlantic Sub Bingo Card @NorthArlington101

The @psuhoffman window is poking its head out now. Obviously some things are likely to change with the overall pattern (+/-) strength of the blocking over top, teleconnection bases, etc. One thing you want to see is established cold over the northern plains working east with time. The cold stretch being advertised is fairly robust beyond 1/16. This is obviously an important element to getting any fruitful winter precip for the area. This is all stemming from a very favorable upper air pattern over the west, bridging into Canada. And then it gets even better..... If you don't fancy this look, Idk what to tell you

Not for snow reasons, but I'm looking forward to moving back north at some point in my career. I was really thinking about doing Florida or SE US offices, but I'm just too much of a lover of synoptics and snow to not move back north. Plus, the education systems in the south are.....pretty abysmal, so I want my kids having a great education and to be closer to family and friends. Growing up in the northeast US then moving to Texas was a culture shock. The people are nice overall, but the environment, weather, and way of life are not for my wife and I. I'm gunning for Sterling/State College/Boston for my forever offices.

We had a crazy gradient in our CWA too. It went from dry to completely parched the further west you went

I think it has something to do with the energy at hand. A northern stream system that has significant wave amplitude will begin with more energy and the colder air involved might add to the baroclinicity factor, especially once near the coast. That's just my proxy on that. I'll see if I can find any articles that pertain to the theory.

There was supposed to be precip but it was pretty dry sadly. Nothing really came to fruition until it was above freezing for much of the region. Sorry for the late response! Just worked day 6 of 10. Oyyy

HREF guidance at 00z pegs a corridor of light ZR accumulations across areas west of US15 out to the 81 corridor. There's a secondary bit along Pars Ridge in Carroll and the PA Line from Thurmont/Emmitsburg to northern Harford County. It's minor at 0.01-0.1" of ZR with temps between 29-32F for 3-6 hrs. It might make for tricky travel in the early morning before surface sufficiently rebounds above freezing between 14-17z everywhere. The further NE you are, the longer the sub-freezing temps will hold in this setup. Could be rough from PSU-Mappy-Jarretsville tomorrow morning.

Was thinking the same thing when I was mulling over guidance. That sucker will give us some serious wind for the Panhandle. Have the blocking a bit weaker to the north and someone could get lucky across VA. Smokey mountains would get popped pretty good on that presentation.

I remember this run! This one is up there with the 65" NAM run before the 2013 New England Blizzard lol The crazy part is the map is actually good outlining the hardest hit areas. Was just a touch rambunctious on the total snowfall lol

Sir. I'm gonna have to ask you politely to NEVER post this storm in here ever again. Sincerely, A Scarred Meteorologist and Mid Atlantic Snow Lover

That site has helped us on our biggest snow and severe events around here. It was used by multiple people in this office, including me, for the recent major winter storm. Did a solid job, but this one was its own beast in other ways. Pretty awesome site to keep bookmarked.

So, yesterday I came in pretty disappointed after being hung out to dry (literally) by mother nature for most of our storm. The last 4.5 hrs, however brought some serious magic and we almost reached 5" for the storm total (3.5" in 4.5 hrs). It was incredible as we hugged the western edge like some people around here hug models. The last band brought 1.6" of the fluffiest snow I'll ever see for down here in 2 hrs time. I could not believe my luck. It was a banner way to exit an otherwise craptastic year. Here's to 2021. Happy New Year everyone

I hope so. I'd love to track more snow with my crazy weather family

Our new schedule starts PP1 (Sunday to be precise). I work a fair amount of 10 day stretches with 4 day weekends, so there will be opportunities to get away for a bit. My wife would probably come with me and we can hang out and watch the snowfall. Would love to come home for a little break and some snow. Trying to stay away from Covid too, so it'll be a play it by ear deal for sure. Fingers crossed for stars aligning there

Pretty meager in Midland proper unfortunately. I provided a mini rant in the Banter thread. I got it out of my system lol A lot of my CWA got historic snowfall though, so I'm

That's for sure. Part of my snark was in reference to that map resembling our epic run in 2010. Obviously, capitalizing on every single wave phase we had is unlikely, but the recipe for multiple storms and/or a big Kahuna is raised pretty significantly with the addition of blocking and greater height falls focused off the Mid Atlantic coast with lower height averages over Dixie and the lower Tennessee Valley. The fact it's inside 10 days to the pattern evolution is the best part of this if you're a winter weenie in the east coast

That setup on the EPS is the kind of look you get with one storm happening and Ji looking for the next one only 5 days down the road.

I got the Mid Atlantic special today. Under 2" for Midland, 7" 40 miles south, 4-8" to my east, 1-2' 100+ miles to my south. Spectacular fail for the Midland area to end the year.

Thanks man. She's currently doing alright with the current meds they put her on, but routine cardiologist appointments will now be in her future plans. The blood interactive component of the virus is truly a marvel, and this is certainly not the first disease that has prompted such a RUI (Return upon Infection). The precautionary bits have been met with a calamity of issues from flat out denial and political pandering. The scientific field has taken a step back this past year in some ways due due to the political fantasies of both parties. One side being unrealistic in the scientific merit of what has been found and happening in-front of our eyes. The other in full sublime dissonance when it comes to the economic toll of just "shutting down" industry without any sense of financial assistance needed to keep said business afloat. That's a story for another time. The human toll of this pandemic is something I hope to never see ever again. Communicable diseases are a completely different beast than say Cancer or any type of disease due to human genetic mutation factors and non-transmissible components (Type 2 diabetes for example). One thing I learned from the pandemic are there are a lot of selfish pricks in this country, and globally, and stupidity has run amuck on society. That's a pandemic that will never be solved and is growing at an uncomfortable rate. Sad but true story there. Stay safe up there!

For those that don't follow me on Twitter: Today was a rough day. My parents let me know that after 13.5 years and raising him from an 8 week old puppy, we had to put down our family dog. He went downhill very rapidly under suspicion of a malignant brain tumor. I wish I could've held him and pet him one last time. What a horrible way to end 2020. Hopefully it snows tomorrow night and Thursday, but I'm beginning to have doubts. This year can pound sand.