MillvilleWx

Hey all! Thought I'd stop in to check out what's happening over in my old stomping grounds. Looks like a fun weekend in store for much of the forum. There's a higher than normal chance of WSW snowfall for areas north of the Turnpike with 8+" certainly in the cards for north-central and NW PA this weekend. Taking a look at the models this morning, there's a general agreement in all of the forum beginning with snow, even down to the M/D line as the initial WAA regime kicks in with the southerly H85 flow out of the surface low back in the Tennessee Valley. With the lack of a sufficient HP over the top funneling cold air into the region, we'll be prone to warming in the mids with the southern zones eventually flipping to sleet/ZR as the low level jet cranks and brings levels between 925-800mb above freezing. The surface wedge should be difficult to scower out at first, and some ZR potential is there for areas south of turnpike and sleet near the turnpike overnight Saturday into Sunday. Eventually, the area south of the pike should turn to straight rain with temps hovering around 32-34 for the remainder of the event. So, southern zones will see modest impact, but certainly nothing too rough to handle. Can see 2-6" of snow from the M/D line to the turnpike with highest amounts the further north you go. As for the crew out west to 99 and along the Allegheny front, strong H85 frontogenesis with upslope will produce a period of very heavy snowfall for several hours with massive aggregates likely given the growth within the DGZ. Snow will transition to IP/ZR once the H85 jet max noses into the area generating a very shallow warm layer that will shift the ptype. However, once the arctic front pushes through, any shift from snow earlier will transition back with upslope snowfall continuing as PVA swings through and we get a secondary surface frontogen along the mountains. A few inches of snow will be possible on the backside with the initial changeover as the low passes to the east. This areas could very well exceed 6" with up to a foot possible in areas along I-99 to the I-80 corridor. Areas north of I-80 will see a prolonged period of heavy snowfall with very little chance of a changeover once west of State College. Williamsport, Clearfield, and north-central and NW tier of the state will be under the gun for a very strong H85 frontogen presence that will generate some significant banding structures across the region. 1-2"/hr snowfall will be possible in the I-80 corridor and north and will likely push totals above 8" for many in that area. Warm nose will poke northward with some sleet possible from State College and east as the surface reflection rides east-northeast over Mid Atlantic. Backside of the surface low with trailing arctic front will blast through and some backside snow is possible in the eastern valleys, but downsloping will allow for a quick drying of the boundary layer, and snow will cut off pretty quickly over the area. Frigid temps are expected post front for everyone with areas around I-80 struggling to get out of the single digits on Monday with below zero lows likely across the northern tier. Bradford, PA and the Grand Canyon of PA will likely settle into the negative teens on Monday morning with WC's well below zero for most, if not all the sub forum on Monday morning. Hope you guys enjoy the snow and stay warm! I'll be visiting family starting tomorrow through the 26th, so I'll be in the region, but I'll be watching from the sidelines at my parents place in Southern DE along the coast. Drip drip drip for me lol

You never know. It's been steady on the idea last few days. Would be nice to see it right on that look. It's certainly a best case scenario and basically my outline for how it gets better for the northern tier north of I-70

12km NAM is certainly more aggressive with erosion of cold air compared to the Nest, but the overall synoptic setup is similar, so I probably lean with the NAM Nest in the overall depiction. Basically an hour or two of snow for our western crew and 2-3 hours for the northern tier followed by ice. Small nose above freezing around 800mb should shift the ptype to sleet/ZR. H85 winds will be pretty brisk out of the south and southwest, so odds are some significant warming will occur in the latter frames of the Nest. However, the CAD wedge is pretty entrenched so temps will be slow to rise for areas north of I-70. A slightly colder onset would probably shift the ice potential to I-70, but the M/D line and 81 corridor will have the highest chance of impact for frozen. It's a shame this antecedent airmass isn't better leading in. This could've been a nice surprise.

I think you should be able to do just that. And completely agree with the assessment of the ice. Despite the temps probably struggling to break out of the low 30's, heavy rain at those temps will have a hard time for accretion as the runoff and ponding will limit the growth of ice on the surface. Still could be a little slippery in spots for sure, but no power loss potential from ice alone. Euro was interesting for snow prospects as a 50-100 mile further south trek of the surface and H85 low would allow for a slightly longer duration snowfall. Ukie and Euro are almost on the same page in that regard and the very end of the NAM Nest was showing something similar in its H5 evolution. Will be interesting to see if the models can hone in on the overall evolution better today so we can start dissecting the thermal levels more for ptype changeover times and total accumulations.

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That was an extreme block and still barely got into the action We barely got into a Blizzard? lol

A good ole Manitoba Mauler would work pretty well. Those can be sneaky in the mid and short term. Doesn't happen down here often, but I remember a few. Most notable one was back in '03. Woke up to a 2 hour delay for school when the system came south far enough to spread some snow squalls through northern MD and dropped a quick couple inches in a few hours. PA/NY state got blitzed.

You and the whole northern crew should squeeze some snow out of this. All snow is good snow. Except yellow snow, that's not very good. But otherwise, snow is wonderful lol

At this point, I'd only monitor the GFS for the upper level features and placement of the SLP with track. The GFS thermals are just not going to handle the setup well as it under analyzes the strength of CAD and will have a significant impact on the precip forecast algorithm. ICON did well with the last storm, but it MIGHT be too cold. We shall see. Better hedge for now is to monitor the progression at H5 in conjunction with the MSLP forecast with thermal layer forecast becoming more honed within 48 hrs of the event. Think ice could be a problem just east of the BR and our far northern tier with modest impacts felt to I-70 corridor. We've seen this type of setup numerous times. Remember climo and intertwine that with what models are spitting out. NAM nest and other short term guidance will be better tools close in to convey CAD strength and other mesoscale factors.

We did the same exact crap last year too in February. We were laughable bad. I know, I went to a game in FL vs Panthers and we blew a 2 goal lead late and lost in OT. We SUCKED so much for like a month. We all know what happened though, so I’m not super concerned, but we need some adjustments. Laughable performance per my dad who unfortunately watched the whole thing lol .

Little early for the Cras don’t you think? .

I’ll be back home, but that stuff will be way too my south. Plenty cold though....sigh .

We gotta be due soon right? lol

That was the one! My parents had "estimated" 16" with 3-4' drifts. Pics and video from my dad were insane.

That storm was just the perfect interaction of 3 different energy pieces. Probably a once in 100 year occurrence, but you never know. We basically had one like it last January, but it phased too late and it only tickled the eastern seaboard. 150 miles further east, and we'd be talking about that one for the rest of our lives. We'll get another monster in the next decade. Hell, we could see one this winter before all said and done.

93 actually went up the coastal plain with low pressure center tracking from Tallahassee up to Dover and over LI. The heaviest snowfall was concentrated from AL and up the spine of the Apps and mixing occurred east of the mountains due to the warm air advection that transpired at 925-800mb as the storm climbed the eastern seaboard. Deformation axis had the single largest coverage of any storm in the satellite era with snow occurring in the western FL panhandle up to western PA while the low was still down around 30N latitude. The storm to end all storms in terms of high scale impact.

Think I'll be leaving my snow boots in Texas when I come home. Oh well. Maybe next year

Some people talking about the arctic blast in the Medium Range thread. Thought I'd share this nugget with the forum on the largest temp drop in MAF's history. December 16th, 2015. It hit 80F at 3pm, generating an all time record high for the date. Arctic boundary plunged south through the plains and passed through MAF at 3:07pm. By 3:42pm, temp crashed to 37 with 55mph wind gusts. That night, the low tanked to 18F at 1159pm, a full degree off the all time daily record low. Only a few times in the NWS history has a WFO had both a record max and min recorded in a calendar day. One of the most famous was a WFO in Illinois where temperature from an arctic boundary plunged temps over 65F in 12 hrs generating both a record max pre-front, and record min post front. THAT is epic beyond words.

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Absolutely, and the temperature will not have to drop much to get issues going.

Verbatim, that run is ugly, but agreed. Doubt we'll see anything like '94 for a very long time.

ICON must really hate electricity because a lot would be lost with that look. Yikes. That run was so nasty @Eskimo Joe would approve

I fly in and land Noon Friday lol. So, buckle up for the Thursday night deal I'm definitely not throwing the towel. I'm an eternal optimist when it comes to weather. I usually only post when there's a storm on the horizon or good runs leading up to an event or potential event. No need to come on here and deb about something. That's what Ji is for, or snojokama is for in the short range or when stuff is actually happening. Here's to a good run regardless for the Mid Atlantic. Yesterday was a great start for many. North of I-70 will get theirs eventually. I lived it for many years. Stuff typically evens out. Glad you cashed great yesterday! In-laws finished around 12.3. Father in law was so excited to use his snowblower he bought back in March of 2016 lol

Yeah. I mentioned the ridging yesterday in a post that was going to be stubborn with this weekends system. Need a really strong TPV presence to push the baroclinic ribbon far enough south to mitigate the effects of the WAR. WxUSA mentioned the ridge positioning in the west too this morning and the models have that back too far west. Needs to be centered over Spokane or ID and not off the Washington coast. I'm still hopeful because we are in peak climo where we don't need EVERYTHING to break right, but still some caveats to contend with. If this weekends storm doesn't get us, I'm still hopeful for round 2 later that week, but ensembles weren't giving me warm and fuzzies on that one. This is just for my sake again. Long term into February looks great, but I'll be over here in the desert of Texas, so not much good for me lol

Ensembles for the next 15 days were a bit of a disappointment for my purposes. I would love to see at least some kind of snowfall while I was back home. GEFS was better in that regard than the EPS which was just horrid to look at this morning for snow chances through the 26th. Long range into late January and February still look great, but a kick in the gut for my sake.